Triantus Shango
Sergeant Major
- Messages
- 1,371
WAIT. hold on to your horses. of course it is possible. question is: when?
instead, let's look at what we see on the charts right now. look at the trendline on M5/M15. if that doesn't get broken, then there is no long to speak of. also, it is possible that what is shaping up right now might turn into some kind of H&S structure. if so, the right shoulder hasn't started yet. the trendline could get broken just for a short time to complete the right shoulder of a H&S. so long now might be a bit early.
further, 592.8 (38.2% fib) has not been tested yet.
oscillators on H1/H4 still pointing down, not up and thus show no sign of a reversal/retrace inception yet. H4 still in OB zone and osc has not exited to the downside yet, although M30 is already well into the OS zone and H1 about to enter OS but MACD is still well above 0-line on H4. so, a possible scenario is that market just drops further from here, pushing H1 oscillator into OS (no right shoulder) long enough to bring MACD on H4 down to the 0-line, then M30 exits OS first, followed by H1, which translates into a MACD 0-line rejection on H4 and up we go once more, hit the key RSST level at 1415/20, complete a lower hump on MACD H4 (thus bearish divergence) and drop from there because this move would not cancel the bear trend on monthly.
on daily, price bounced off the 100 SMA, closed under DPR1, MPR1, and 61.8% fib (the one that gave us agreement with the COP level from the AB=CD structure). also look at that huge up candle on daily and the 38.2% fib at its base, which is still a good 200 pips further down from current price level.
all this leads me to believe that either we'll get a short move up (BC leg) to complete the right shoulder (after testing the closest 38.2% on H1) and then the drop that follows a H&S structure all the way to the K-area, which would correspond to H&S target.
or no right shoulder and market just drops like a stone from here to K-area at 417 (38.2%) - 439 (61.8%), then bounces from there or not and just goes on to crater all the way down signaling resumption of bear trend. for the latter to be confirmed, i would watch on daily what happens if market reached K-area because slightly below it we have 55 EMA and top of ichimoku cloud. if price shows nice bounce off these 2, then i'd close my shorts and go long.
so, i guess we need to wait until London and NY are online at the same time to see where they'll take the market because right now in Asia nothing is moving (and it's 8.30 am).
instead, let's look at what we see on the charts right now. look at the trendline on M5/M15. if that doesn't get broken, then there is no long to speak of. also, it is possible that what is shaping up right now might turn into some kind of H&S structure. if so, the right shoulder hasn't started yet. the trendline could get broken just for a short time to complete the right shoulder of a H&S. so long now might be a bit early.
further, 592.8 (38.2% fib) has not been tested yet.
oscillators on H1/H4 still pointing down, not up and thus show no sign of a reversal/retrace inception yet. H4 still in OB zone and osc has not exited to the downside yet, although M30 is already well into the OS zone and H1 about to enter OS but MACD is still well above 0-line on H4. so, a possible scenario is that market just drops further from here, pushing H1 oscillator into OS (no right shoulder) long enough to bring MACD on H4 down to the 0-line, then M30 exits OS first, followed by H1, which translates into a MACD 0-line rejection on H4 and up we go once more, hit the key RSST level at 1415/20, complete a lower hump on MACD H4 (thus bearish divergence) and drop from there because this move would not cancel the bear trend on monthly.
on daily, price bounced off the 100 SMA, closed under DPR1, MPR1, and 61.8% fib (the one that gave us agreement with the COP level from the AB=CD structure). also look at that huge up candle on daily and the 38.2% fib at its base, which is still a good 200 pips further down from current price level.
all this leads me to believe that either we'll get a short move up (BC leg) to complete the right shoulder (after testing the closest 38.2% on H1) and then the drop that follows a H&S structure all the way to the K-area, which would correspond to H&S target.
or no right shoulder and market just drops like a stone from here to K-area at 417 (38.2%) - 439 (61.8%), then bounces from there or not and just goes on to crater all the way down signaling resumption of bear trend. for the latter to be confirmed, i would watch on daily what happens if market reached K-area because slightly below it we have 55 EMA and top of ichimoku cloud. if price shows nice bounce off these 2, then i'd close my shorts and go long.
so, i guess we need to wait until London and NY are online at the same time to see where they'll take the market because right now in Asia nothing is moving (and it's 8.30 am).
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