GOLD PRO Weekly August 19-23, 2013

[D.R.&Quinch]

nearly at green circle

 

[D.R.&Quinch]

so close to target now.

 

[Sive Morten]

sive, with all due respect, i disagree with how you draw the butterfly on H4. look at my chart here: https://www.tradingview.com/x/LWIhUdT7/

according to this, we had a completed Gartley 222 SELL. i do not understand why you choose to ignore the pullback up from 523 as the AB leg and draw the AB leg instead to the higher high, which is my D point.

the candles are different too because this chart is generated with data from FXCM and the timezone is EST. yours i think is on UK time. so we get slightly different candle patterns. what to do?

Hi Triantus. You've answered by yourself. Here is not something wrong with my butterfly - you just draw absolutely different pattern "222" Sell.

sive

what do you think of this setup on daily. i know there seems to be bullish pressure and we are nearing the triangle breakout point. however, on daily, the gartley sell has not become active yet and price is still lingering in the PRZ.

MACD is showing bearish divergence in the histogram, and oscillators have been at the extreme of OB for a while now. of course, that does not mean it has to drop necessarily from here. price could still jump to 1,415 thereby creating a lower high bearish divergence in the MACD histogram as well as in other oscillators. then SELL from there.

here is also the H4 chart. if we do get a gartley like structure, and since it there is no significant S/R until 1,415/20, if we reach that level then we would get a not so harmonic Bat SELL.

or we could get a butterfly SELL if it stops right at 1.272 fib projection and extension where the yellow line indicates a significant (minor) S/R level.

market is obviously waiting for something. what will the trigger be, i wonder. at 10 am EST new home sales will be released. is that enough to trigger a jump up in gold of 200+ pips?

but i am not convinced of upside bullish pressure and think market will rather drop that go up. but that's just instinct although market has definitely plenty of room to reach 1,415/20 and then drop.

this is really a tricky one to call.

EDIT 1: and europe session is just starting and market is reaching end point of triangle...

EDIT 2: one more thing, 1,384.3 is the level to watch. we break it, and up to 1,415/20 we go. if not, the downside looms large once again with 1,353.5 the most plausible TP. do you guys agree?

EDIT 3: also, how do we reconcile a possible BULL FLAG on daily with the Gartley SELL formation? which one takes precedence?

In first two points your conclusion is very similar to our thoughts. As market has shown upward breakout as we've suggested (by butterfly ), there are some chances still, that market will re-test broken highs at 1340 area.
Concerning longer perspective. I agree in major subject - although market is showing impressive appreciation - it has not exceeded yet top of previous swing down. This is major destination point. It is too much typing to explain the core of bullishness on gold, better you to read fundamental part in our most recent 2-3 researches.

Guys, sorry that I rare respond in threads now. I'm very busy, since it's a period of quarterly statements on share market. Really hot times there...Just take a look at S&P and some shares, for instance HPQ, ARO ...

 

[D.R.&Quinch]

We appreciate you have s full time job!