GOLD PRO Weekly August 26-30, 2013

[Sive Morten]

sive

here is H1 as of 2.10 am EST. as you can see, the K-area has been tested 3 times already, and is being tested a 4th time as i write this. so far, it has held and shown great resilience.

now, here is my question: am i correct to assume that because it looks so strong, that it will hold the 4th time as well, or at least that the downside will be very limited (to 380/90 and no further down) and that this is the market telling the bears, 'no way! you ain't going down,' and therefore a sign of constant bullish pressure presaging a surge to the upside (which by the way, after looking at daily and H4, i predict will be moderate, that is to say: 140/60 at least, 200/20 and 370/90 at best, then drop from there to let daily extreme OB signals unwind.)

Hi Triantus,
by my suggestion each testing of K-area makes it weaker. But IMHO you look on particularities and pay too much attention to them (may be this is because you trade on lower time frames) and pay less attention to major things.
Here is what I mean - in fact market in upward channel, holds harmonic swings and has not quite reached 1440 AB=CD target on daily. Currently it stands with harmonic retracement down. This is OK, until harmonic length holds.
But whether there is a K-support right at the end of this harmonic swing or any other support - this is not as important, at least if you do not search possiblity for entry.
What I'm want to say is better take a broader look first and then turn to some details, because details could confuse you. Following your example, K-area is not an indicator or signal by itself. So you have to understand how to put it into whole context.

 

[Triantus Shango]

understood. thanks. market just gave me the answer--slice through k-area.

 

[Sive Morten]

understood. thanks. market just gave me the answer--slice through k-area.

Exactly. As you can see - this relays not only to K-area but also touches overall setup, that now stands under question and we need to see what will happen.

 

[Triantus Shango]

just looked at your chart.... i don't know if you use oscillators, but there are a bunch that would have shown you that market already turned bearish on M30. and if you used bollinger bands, you will have seen that market could not cross midline, also another confirmation that it was probably continuation down.

View attachment 10972
This is horrific to watch!

 

[Triantus Shango]

H&S pattern?

looks like mr market likes himself some H&S on H1. here is the chart:

the grey box is the previously breached K-area that is being tested from below. obvious RSST levels are the fibs, pivot R1, which coincides with the bottom of the cloud--sort of.

i find it fascinating how this market can stop on a dime right at a 50% fib retrace and/or 200 SMA, and then just turn around and rip your face off like a wild jungle beast!!

secretary of state kerry is up in 40 mins. let's what kind of stupid things he will spout forth. i wouldn't be surprised if the US issues some sort of ultimatum and we see gold rocket through all RSST levels, all the way to 1,440.

anyway, i am not gonna stick around for it. been a long day. have a great weekend all!

 

[D.R.&Quinch]

Yes. I reviewed trade and saw this. This should have led me to re evaluate the strength of support of the bottom channel price was at. I must check what the oscilloters were doing last time price was at bottom channel.