ilearn2t_predictions

[ilearn2t]

Hello Everyone

I would like to try my hand at predicting the outcome of the forex market.

All predictions must be viewed as educational help/advice only.

First prediction: Sell

AUD/USD:

Open between 0.9500 - 0.9400
TakeProfit 0.9330
StopLoss 0.9530
Current price: 0.9459



All predictions will be based on the current market price of AUD/USD, EUR/USD, GBP/USD, NZD/USD, over the 4H & 1H timeframe, together with a few indicators of my own.

I base this prediction inn the believe all 4 currencies will cross below the middle line of my ilearn2t_switch indicator on the hour cycle, combined with my AUD/USD (white line) iMA not truly showing above the (Red) iMAOnArray preprogrammed in my ilearn2t_cross indicator.

Full results will be given before next prediction.

Good luck
ilearn2t

 

[ilearn2t]

Hello Everyone

Now I can add a few more details to why I chose this currency as my first prediction.

On the 18/Sept/13 the FOMC announcement pushed the AUD/USD up from around our target area (0.9334) to a high just short of my StopLoss level (0.9527) before dropping again to below my TakeProfit level (0.9330), once again over a period of time it has climbed up to just above the price shown on my image above (0.9484).

Going in our favor is the fact that it as bounced along our predicted line around 5 times since last months high.

The next big test in the outcome of this prediction might be the FOMC Meeting Minutes report tomorrow, where a more hawkish than expected approach by the Federal Open Market Committee might get us closer to our target.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is charged under United States law with overseeing the nation's open market operations, it releases its detailed record of the most recent meeting, usually scheduled 8 times per year, 3 weeks after the Federal Funds Rate is announced.(in this case it's 7pm London time) It provides an in-depth insights into the economic and financial conditions that influenced their vote on where to set interest rates.

A more hawkish than expected approach could be good for the Dollar as a less hawkish than expected approach could be seen as a weakness in the Dollar.


Good luck
ilearn2t

 

[ilearn2t]

Hello Everyone

30 minutes after three UK reports where released the AUD/USD & NZD/USD hold slightly up, as the EUR/USD & GBP/USD fall on the back of all 3 reports.

One of the reports: Manufacturing Production m/m is often known as a high impact report, that most times causes that countries currency to move in a volatile way depending on the reports findings.

This report did have a Forecast of 0.3% but the Actual result came in at -1.2%.

The UK Manufacturing Production m/m measures the change in the total inflation-adjusted value of output produced by manufacturers. It's a leading indicator of economic health - production reacts quickly to ups and downs in the business cycle and is correlated with consumer conditions such as employment levels and earnings.

A reading which is lower than the market forecast is bearish for the pound.

AUD/USD: current price 0.9448

Updates:

Our 1H chart shows the current market price around an upper resistance point (highlighted by 5 white dots in image) if this resistance line is not broken it might just head towards 0.9380 as next stop.

Resistance line is a level where seller's usually join the action and reverse the uptrend, Support line where I expect might be has the opposite effect, but both have the capability to be broken.

AUD/USD: current price 0.9451

Good luck
ilearn2t

 

[ilearn2t]

Hello Everyone

Hopefully my prediction will remain on course to reach its target after the FOMC report around 3 hours time, and we get to our next big hurdle/s at 1.30am tomorrow morning UK time.

Namely the Australian Unemployment Rate & Employment Change, both known for their own high impact reports.

The AUD Unemployment Rate can be a high impact report:

The Unemployment Rate serves as a leading indicator of the health of the labour market as it measures the percentage of unemployed people in the labour force. The report is very timely, coming out just a few weeks after the reporting period. Additionally, the figure has a significant impact on the market because of the overall importance of employment for the economy. Higher unemployment leads to less income for Australian workers who in turn might reduce the amount consumed. As consumer spending contributes to a majority of Australia's GDP, developments in the labour market directly affect prospects for Australian growth. Note : Unemployed persons are those who have no job but are actively seeking work; the labour force is the total of employed and unemployed people.

A reading which is higher than the market forecast is bearish for the Aussie dollar.


While the:

The Australian Employment Change measures the change in the number of employed people during the previous month.

A reading which is higher than the market forecast is bullish for the Australian dollar.

Both are usually released together, 10 days into each month, and can be confusing when sometimes they show good & bad results at the same time as has happened 2 out of the last 3 results.

1) Two better than expected results should send the AUD/USD skyward.

2) Two worse than expected results should make my prediction a reality.

3) One of each, first out swing in that results favor until the other result causes a swings-and-roundabouts effect.

Good luck
ilearn2t

 

[Red Herring]

Hey

Doing some good job here! Keep posting...
I am in.

 

[ilearn2t]

Hello Red Herring

Hope you enjoy my new thread, I like to see it as giving others some friendly advice/help while adding a predicted outcome to made it more interesting, so best treat all as educational only.

Directly after the last FOMC report in August the result over the next 30M period:

Open 0.9031
Close 0.9002 - 29 pips
lowest 0.8975 -56 pips

At the time of typing this message we set at half way between hit & miss.

So we stand a good chance of reaching the AUD reports with the prediction still running.

Please feel free to add your own tips/advice/help and even correct any mistakes I might made why typing.

Current price 0.9437

Updates:

FOMC 09/Oct/13 30M bar.

Open 0.9436
Close 0.9440 +4 pips
Highest 0.9442 +6 pips
Lowest 0.9423 -17 pips

Current price 0.9443


New update:

Once again the Resistance line is targeted (see image) only breaking the once since the prediction started, still the target level remains our true Support line.

Current price: 0.9441

Good luck
ilearn2t

 

[ilearn2t]

Hello Everyone

Result of the AUD reports: Australian Unemployment Rate & Employment Change

3) One of each, first out swing in that results favor until the other result causes a swings-and-roundabouts effect.

Open 0.9446
Closed 0.9448 +2 pips
Highest 0.9470 +24 pips
Lowest 0.9427 -19 pips

Didn't stay up to watch, but looking at the first 1M "History" data seems to show a swing of 43 pips.

Employment Change helped are prediction by coming in at 9.1K Forecast expected 15.2K.

Unemployment Rate did us no favours by hitting 5.6% forecast expected higher at 5.8%.

Looking at the daily chart so far today I see the pair (AUD/USD) reached their peak (0.9470) around that time, and fell to 0.9388 before starting its reversal upward again to its current price: 0.9434.

Next up: US Unemployment Claims 1.30pm today (London time) .

This indicator is released weekly, and measures the number of people filing for unemployment for the first time during the previous week. This is an important economic indicator of consumer confidence in the economy. It helps measure future spending behavior, as consumers are more likely to spend if they are confident that unemployment is dropping. In turn, an increase in consumer spending sends a strong signal that the economy is healthy and growing.

A reading which is higher than the market forecast is bearish for the dollar.

The Forecast expects a drop of 1K (307k) from Previous 308k, any result below the 307K might work wonders for our Prediction.

I've highlighted the word might in red, to explain that not every result will move in a certain pattern based on the outcome due to underlining facts in the greater details of the report, or simple Buy or Sell back that might have been priced in before the result is known.

To be continued..................

Updates

I've added a new "Pivot" custom indicator to my "Daily" chart to show likely outcome of daily trading.

Highest point: 0.9524 (6 pips short of failure)
Lowest point: 0.9367 (keep it going until tomorrow by 34 pips)

See image more clearly on 1H chart:

ilearn2t_switch colours:

AUD = Yellow
NZD = Red
EUR = Green
GBP = White.

ilearn2t_cross colours:

AUD = Yellow.
cross line = Red

Good luck
ilearn2t

 

[ilearn2t]

Hello Everyone

A pivot point indicator is something similar to setting your own resistance and support levels.

It simply involves calculating the previous time frame.

For this prediction I'm using the daily time frame:

Yesterday:
High = 0.9464
Close = 0.9450
Low = 0.9411

First we need to find the (ilearn2t) pivot line.

Adding the high+low+close and dividing by 3 = 0.944166666 (rounded off) = 0.9442

Todays high line

Pivot − Low = 0.0031 x2 = 0.0062 + 0.9464(High) = 0.9526 (up by 1.5 pips due to 5 digit platform)

Todays low line

High − Pivot = 0.0022 x2 = 0.0044 - Low (0.9411) = 0.09367

See image above to confirm.

Current price 0.9436

Good luck
ilearn2t

 

[RahmanSL]

Hi ilearn2t....very glad to see you are your usual efficient self here as in the good-old-days over at fxopen site

Right now, I am rather weary trading any pair with the USD as it (USD) is like a smothering time bomb just waiting to go off anytime that the US of A government get their act together.
My feeling is, as soon as that happens, the USD will rally violently against most currencies.....BUT, I have been know to be mserably wrong

All the best and love to the family...

================

I am uncomfortable trading the AUD/USD due to China improving economy which will appreciate the AUD further even though, I supposed, the Aussie will not be too happy with a strong AUD.

However, the EUR/USD is a whole kettle of fish altogether as both economies are bluffing the whole world with rosy claims.
What are your thoughts on the EUR/USD?
My personal feeling is that the pair will most probably nose dive as soon as the US of A government got their act together and start running the government as a team......BUT, AGAIN, I have been miserably wrong in the past

 

[ilearn2t]

Hello RahmanSL

Yes, good to be able to post with a little humour mixed in without the masters stealing your fun, never mind the money.

Hope I don't run out of material before this prediction ends (if ever).

I'll let you study the image for any ideas, until we reach our final goal on this one.
EUR in yellow on indicators.

our next hurdle (if still going) is 2.55pm tomorrow:

US University of Michigan (UoM) Consumer Sentiment

This high impact report measures the level of a composite index based on surveyed consumers. There are two versions of this data released two weeks apart, preliminary and revised. This the preliminary data tends to have a greater impact.

A reading which is higher than the market forecast is bullish for the Dollar.

The Forecast shows 77.2 with is 0.3 down from Previous I'll be looking at 77.2 or higher.

Current price: 0.9457

Good luck
ilearn2t