ilearn2t_predictions

Hello RahmanSL

Speculation seems to suggest the full Senate are considering a proposal today to raise the debt limit reopening the partially shuttered government, a deal that would extend U.S. borrowing authority until February 7. This could end the government shut-down that began with the new fiscal year on October 1.

Yesterday my prediction fell sharply after reports that the US Senate fiscal negotiations were suspended until House Republicans work out plan to proceed on debt limit and government funding. Only to rebound earlier today to my starting point for prediction, before dropping back again to its current price 94.86.

Wed 16th Oct: The Canadian Manufacturing Sales m/m 1.30pm (London time)

This report is released monthly and is a leading indicator of economic health, manufacturers are quickly affected by market conditions, changes in their sales can be an early signal of future activity such as spending, hiring, and investment

A reading which is lower than the market forecast is bearish for the Canadian dollar.

Forecast: 0.3% Previous: 1.7%


The "Bollinger" Bands indicator remains slightly above the longer-term average line on today's "Daily" chart. parameters: Period:20 - Shift:0 - Deviations:2 Apply to: Close. (All default settings)

As the currency price become more volatile the outer bands move further away from the longer-term average, as volatility decreases they become closer to the moving average. When using Bollinger bands you should consider combining it with support and resistance lines on your forex charts before entering a position.
Other good tools to use is the momentum oscillators as a guidance.

Update:

Result of Canadian Manufacturing Sales m/m: Actual -0.2% Forecast 0.3% Previous 1.7%

CAD/JPY took a slight dip by a few pips shortly after report, before continued its "Daily" & "Weekly" uptrend movement. Reaching its highest point in 13 days.

Current price: 95.34

Friday 18th Oct: Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda speaks 7.35am

Volatility is often experienced during his speeches as traders attempt to decipher interest rate clues.

A more hawkish than expected approach could be good for the JPY.

Friday 18th Oct: The Canadian Consumer Price Index (CPI) 1.30pm

This report measures the change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers, excluding the 8 most volatile items. Consumer prices account for a majority of overall inflation. Inflation is important to currency valuation because rising prices lead the central bank to raise interest rates out of respect for their inflation containment mandate.

A reading which is higher than the market forecast is bullish for the CAD.

The CPI rose 1.1% in the 12 months to August, following a 1.3% increase in July.

Forecast: 0.2% Previous: 0.2%

Good luck
ilearn2t
 
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This U.S of A debt crisis resolution (if you can call it that) is another wet fire cracker....it went "phiff" instead of with the expected bang against other currencies:(

Still, I did make some pretty good profits scraping (better term than scalping which evoke removal of scalp:p) small profits from NZD/USD.....have still a bunch of shorts left which I believe should be closed out by Friday.
 
Hello RahmanSL

Not sure of your trading times lately, due to your work commitments etc, or even if you're in your "HOT, WET & HUMID Land Below The Wind" country or away living it up somewhere less wet & humid, but a lot of Reports today & tomorrow could see you scalp past the winning post. (First I hope ;) )

(All London times)

Today

1:30pm Unemployment Claims (USD)
3:00pm Philly Fed Manufacturing Index (USD)
5:45pm FOMC Members Evans & George Speaks (rated middle impact, but in present climate might just be worth watching.) (USD)

Tomorrow

2:00am RBA Gov Stevens Speaks (AUD)
3:00am GDP q/y & Industrial Production y/y (CNY)
7:35am BOJ Gov Kuroda Speaks (JPY)
1:30pm Core CPI m/m (CAD)

List below all USD (rated low or middle impact, but in present climate might just be worth watching.)

5:30pm OMC Member Tarullo Speaks
7:00pm FOMC Member Evans Speaks
8:40pm FOMC Member Dudley Speaks
9:30pm FOMC Member Stein Speaks

Sadly for me I'm on hospital duty shortly and will miss all today's results.

Good luck
ilearn2t
 
...hmmmmm...USA unemployment claims came out higher than expected. So, not so good for the USD;huh!
Looks like its going to be a long wait for my NZD/USD shorts to go into profits:(

My present abode in "Land Below The Wind"????:cool: .......like everything else these days, just google search it.
Hint: My Southern neighbors used to collect human heads for trophies.

Hospital duty??..Ok, take care and catch you here sometime.
 
Hello Everyone

Once again my prediction as failed, so far 2 predictions = 2 failures.

Next prediction will involve the GBP/USD.

Target 1.6259 (around 01/Dec/2012 close)
Failure 1.6021 (around 01/Nov/2012 close)

I've used the Monthly "Bollinger Bands" & "Pivot Point" to help in this one.

Today we have 4 high impact reports.

12.30pm (London time)

The USD Core Retail Sales m/m. This report measures the change in the total value of sales at the retail level, excluding automobiles.

A reading which is higher than the market forecast is bullish for the dollar.

The US Producer Price Index (PPI) m/m. This measures the change in the price of finished goods and services sold by producers.

A reading which is higher than the market forecast is bullish for the Dollar.

The USD Retail Sales m/m. This measures the change in the total value of sales at the retail level. It's the primary gauge of consumer spending, which accounts for the majority of overall economic activity.

A reading which is higher than the market forecast is bullish for the dollar.

All 3 reports delayed by 18 days due to the US government shutdown.

2.00pm (London time)

The US CB Consumer Confidence. This measures the level of a composite index based on surveyed households.

A reading which is higher than the market forecast is bullish for the dollar.

Current price 1.6096

Hello RahmanSL

I'm still attending hospital for my head injuries, my duties involve me laying in an overgrown magnetic can (MRI scan) then what seems like pints of blood are withdrawn from me. One bit of good new, my aneurysm has reduced in size to 5mm, :) but still not enough to be allowed to travel to your beautiful country by plane. :mad:

Good luck
ilearn2t
 
Hello Everyone

Yesterday saw the GBP/USD fall to 1.6024 just above my predicted fail line (1.6021) this after a day that saw 3 high impact reports show negative for the dollar.

Today's reports (Wed 30th Oct) read as:

The US ADP Non-Farm Employment 12.15pm (London time)
This measures the change in the number of newly employed people in the US, excluding workers in the farming industry. Job creation is one of the most important leading indicators of overall economic activity. Thus, the publication of employment data is highly anticipated by the markets. Traders should note that the ADP Non-Farm Employment Change is an unofficial indicator, with the government non-farm employment change release taking place one day later.

A reading which is higher than the market forecast is bullish for the dollar.

The US Core Consumer Price Index (CPI) m/m 12.30pm (London time)
This measures any change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers, excluding food and energy. Consumer prices account for a majority of overall inflation.

A reading which is higher than the market forecast is bullish for the dollar.


The above (CPI) report release date is delayed by 14 days due to the US government shutdown.

6pm (London time) The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) releases its detailed record of the most recent meeting, providing in-depth insights into the economic and financial conditions that influenced their vote on where to set interest rates.

A more hawkish than expected approach could be good for the Dollar as a less hawkish than expected approach could be seen as a weakness in the Dollar.

Current price 1.6065

Good luck
ilearn2t
 
Hello Everyone

Once again I keep my 100% of wrongful predictions with seconds of the FOMC Statement being released.

Key points from statement:

Household spending and business fixed investment advanced, while the recovery in the housing sector slowed somewhat in recent months.

Inflation has been running below the Committee's longer-run objective, but longer-term inflation expectations have remained stable. The Committee recognizes that inflation persistently below its 2 percent objective could pose risks to economic performance, but it anticipates that inflation will move back toward its objective over the medium term.

Full report: federalreserve.gov/newsevents/press/monetary/20131030a.htm

Rest of this weeks high impact reports that might effect the GBP/USD.

Thurs 31st OCT 12.30PM (London time) US Unemployment Claims
This indicator is released weekly, and measures the number of people filing for unemployment for the first time during the previous week. Unemployment claims is important economic indicator of consumer confidence in the economy. It helps measure future spending behavior, as consumers are more likely to spend if they are confident that unemployment is dropping. In turn, an increase in consumer spending sends a strong signal that the economy is healthy and growing.

A reading which is higher than the market forecast is bearish for the dollar.

Fri 1st Nov 9.30am (London time) UK Manufacturing PMI
This measures the level of a diffusion index based on surveyed purchasing managers in the manufacturing industry. The data is given to Thomson Reuters subscribers 2 minutes before the public release time listed on the calendar - early market reaction is usually a result of trades made by these subscribers. Above 50.0 indicates industry expansion, below indicates contraction.

A reading which is higher than the market forecast is bullish for the pound.

Fri 1st Nov 2pm (London time) US ISM Manufacturing PMI
This measures the level of a diffusion index based on surveyed purchasing managers in the manufacturing industry. It's a leading indicator of economic health - businesses react quickly to market conditions, and their purchasing managers hold perhaps the most current and relevant insight into the company's view of the economy.

A reading which is higher than the market forecast is bullish for the dollar.

Good luck
ilearn2t
 
Hello Alonedevils

Thanks for your comments, but I have two reasons for not being able to continue with this thread at the moment.

1) Too much commitments elsewhere. ;)

2) The "bucketshop" broker delight predictions, simply explained as the "Nostradamus" theory, where some great mathematical genius will come along one day and explain how my previous predictions did come true, but not just in the right order. :(

Good luck
ilearn2t
 
Hello Alonedevils

Thanks for your comments, but I have two reasons for not being able to continue with this thread at the moment.

1) Too much commitments elsewhere. ;)

2) The "bucketshop" broker delight predictions, simply explained as the "Nostradamus" theory, where some great mathematical genius will come along one day and explain how my previous predictions did come true, but not just in the right order. :(

Good luck
ilearn2t

ilearn2t .. ok now im understand :D
thus Thread Can Stopped, But Not Your Great Gain Pips i hope :(
 
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