ilearn2t_predictions

[RahmanSL]

Huh...hmmmm....to be perfectly honest, I don't know what to make of charts as I based my trades more on fundamentals....but that chart would make a nice framed picture on a wall

Ok, now we know my ignorance, in plain old layman's term, is the EUR/USD more likely to go up or down tomorrow (last trading day of the week)?


All the best my friend!

 

[ilearn2t]

Hello RahmanSL

Some more facts about tomorrows: US Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment

8 of the last 10 reports have shown the Actual to be down (Bearish) including the last 4 in a row cycle, but for all you Buyers, since 2007 this report as managed to produce 3 other 4 in a row cycles but has yet to hit a record 5.

In July this year Thompson Reuters announced it was suspending its early release practice with UoM as part of an agreement with the New York Attorney General's office, a practice that netted UoM a million dollars a year.

So if all goes well and the report don't get its record 5 in a row, the USD will come out on top and all the other currencies in my ilearn2t_swing indicator (AUD, EUR, CHF, GBP) will finish the day on the downside.

Some traders like yourself prefer the fundamental analysis, as the data released after the report/s can often provide long term movements in the one direction.

Reading the economic calendar report's is never the easiest thing to do, it's created by economists where they predict different economics figures and values according to previous weeks, months, etc. It contains data such as: Date — Time — Currency — Data Released — Actual — Forecast — Previous.

Fundamental trading can be very rewarding when prepared and conducted in the right way. Studying the data is also the only sensible way when building medium to long term strategies. (Something like this prediction - long term)

While my technical analysis (indicators) tools can point me in the right direction or spot a pattern of movement when used to successfully trade with shorter-term and long term movements.

Plus I just enjoy programming them.

Good luck
ilearn2t

 

[RahmanSL]

Thank you my friend....and yes, I know even way back then, you enjoy programing, but most unfortunately my thick skull couldn't quite grasped technical....I suspect that someone must have accidentally dropped me when I was a baby

Yes, I agree 101% with you that fundamental trading can be very rewarding and I do rely on that on all my trades....but it does involve a lot of weekend research, reading, analyzing, watching & listening to analyst over at Bloomberg & CNN (and other channels), etc ....then trying to make sense of all those hints, implies, outright predictions, etc, etc....piece the puzzle together before deciding on the pairs (max 3) to trade and in which direction before market opens on Monday....But once in a while, if I don't have the luxury of time, I just stick to trading one pair and in one direction only. That way, its much easier to control my trades without having to be glued to the computer screen.

Anywhere, for this week, I have only been trading only EUR/USD (Sell), USD/JPY(Buy), and taking shorts on the EUR/ZAR & USD/ZAR whenever the pair crossed my "must sell" zones all preset pending orders.

If I am not greedy, I get pretty good daily & weekly profits....and I am setting a "Zero losses" on my two many-times-re-started trading accounts...self-imposed challenge to myself so as not to over-trade

All the best!

 

[Red Herring]

Hi ilearn2t....very glad to see you are your usual efficient self here as in the good-old-days over at fxopen site

Right now, I am rather weary trading any pair with the USD as it (USD) is like a smothering time bomb just waiting to go off anytime that the US of A government get their act together.
My feeling is, as soon as that happens, the USD will rally violently against most currencies.....BUT, I have been know to be mserably wrong

All the best and love to the family...

================

I am uncomfortable trading the AUD/USD due to China improving economy which will appreciate the AUD further even though, I supposed, the Aussie will not be too happy with a strong AUD.

However, the EUR/USD is a whole kettle of fish altogether as both economies are bluffing the whole world with rosy claims.
What are your thoughts on the EUR/USD?
My personal feeling is that the pair will most probably nose dive as soon as the US of A government got their act together and start running the government as a team......BUT, AGAIN, I have been miserably wrong in the past

Hello Rahman

I like your funny but true answers...
Now if I ask that (...as soon as that happens, the USD will rally violently against most currencies) it that the reason people still buying the USD? Specially against the JPY during this shutdown situation or it is due to the fibonachi retracement (lol...)!
Regards

 

[RahmanSL]

Hello Rahman
I like your funny but true answers...
Now if I ask that (...as soon as that happens, the USD will rally violently against most currencies) it that the reason people still buying the USD? Specially against the JPY during this shutdown situation or it is due to the fibonachi retracement (lol...)!
Regards

Fibonachi retracement???....hmmmm....is he Italian???

Let me put it this way......Just because some indicator indicate that so-and-so currency is in a particular set-up and therefore should go in a certain direction, but fundamental news tell otherwise, I will go with fundamentals.

As I have mentioned in one of my wiped-out account thread, I went with a technical analyst some jackass has posted (and still continue to post) right here at the FPA that there is good set-up for so-and-so currency pair and I, a much bigger jackass, believed him and went in big time (greedy for huge potential profits).
After I have taken the trade, a follow-up jackass analysis inform to cancel trade because his indicator has changed indicating trade direction has changed.


So, I am done with indicator & jackass analyst and will only make trades based on my own combination of some technical and mostly fundamental analysis

 

[ilearn2t]

Hello Everyone

No matter your preferred method of trading, no-one or no thing will give you a quick fix to being rich.

Fundamental and/or Technical analysis are never 100% right (far from it) but then again if they could foresee into the futures, the game would be over.

There is a good many traders out there in forums like this only willing to take the time-out to advice/learn others like ourselves to understand more about this business, and the risks involved.

All we need to do is learn how to piece together most/some of their information so we can test on our own strategy to see if it helps improve our skills.

But the most enjoyable part of it all, is the fact that once you start you'll never stop trying to improve on your skills in this business.

Lets look at how I believe what moves the markets :

Take the Fibonacci retracements indicator as an example:

Named after Leonardo Fibonacci a great Italian mathematician best known for his spreading of the Hindu–Arabic numeral system in Europe. (Born 1170 Died 1250)

Fibonacci ratios are 0%, 23.6%, 38.2%, 61.8%, and 100%.

The indicator is based on the idea that markets will retrace a predictable portion of a move, after which they will continue to move in the original direction again.

0.0% is considered to be the start of the retracement, while 100.0% is a complete reversal to the original part of the move.

So traders using this method will most likely join the market at a given point defined by the indicator.

So I believe with so many indicators to choose from, giving different signals when best to join the market and 10's of thousands of different traders using each one, add the Fundamental factor into the mix, when even the so-call experts can't even get the Forecast right a lot of the time, its not hard to see why I believe its impossible to get a 100% success in this business.

To be continued.........................

Current price: 0.9479

Good luck
ilearn2t

 

[ilearn2t]

Hello Everyone

Result of UoM report - Actual: 75.2 Forecast: 77.2 Previous: 77.5

Why did the markets not react to the lowest figure since January (71.3) ?

My thinking:

Maybe the big players who were surely guaranteed rich picking in the past have decided to give this report a miss because Reuters suspend its early release practice with UoM.
If so how long will it be before its not classed as a high impact ?

End of trading week:

Prediction
Open 0.9463
Close 0.9468 -5 pips
High 0.9483 +20 pips
Low 0.9411 -57 pips

Next weeks events: (All London times)

1) Tue 15th Oct - Australia Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes 1.30am

This policy statement provides valuable insight into the bank's perspective on economic conditions and inflation.

A more hawkish than expected approach could be good for the Australian dollar .

At the last meeting on the 1st October 2013 chaired by Glenn Stevens the board made the decision to leave the cash rate unchanged at 2.5 per cent, the board lowered its rate from 2.75 on the 7 August of this year.

2) Thu 17th Oct - US Unemployment Claims 1.30pm

This indicator is released weekly, and measures the number of people filing for unemployment for the first time during the previous week. This is an important economic indicator of consumer confidence in the economy. It helps measure future spending behavior, as consumers are more likely to spend if they are confident that unemployment is dropping. In turn, an increase in consumer spending sends a strong signal that the economy is healthy and growing.

A reading which is higher than the market forecast is bearish for the dollar.

Previous 374K Forecast 357K, if correct or even better (lower) this result would be good for the dollar & Prediction.

3) Thu 17th Oct - US Philly Fed Manufacturing Index 3.00pm

This measures the level of a diffusion index based on surveyed manufacturers in Philadelphia. Above 0.0 indicates improving conditions, below indicates worsening conditions. It's a leading indicator of economic health - businesses react quickly to market conditions, and changes in their sentiment can be an early signal of future economic activity such as spending, hiring, and investment.

A reading which is higher than the market forecast is bullish for the dollar.

Previous 22.3 Forecast 15.4, we're looking for a result same as July this year when the manufacturing (OUTFGAF) expanded more than the forecast expected.

4) Fri 18th Oct - RBA Governor Glenn Stevens is due to Speak at the Australian British Chamber of Commerce Business Lunch, in Sydney 2.00am

A more hawkish than expected speech could be good for the Aussie dollar.

Good luck
ilearn2t

 

[Red Herring]

Fibonachi retracement???....hmmmm....is he Italian???

Let me put it this way......Just because some indicator indicate that so-and-so currency is in a particular set-up and therefore should go in a certain direction, but fundamental news tell otherwise, I will go with fundamentals.

As I have mentioned in one of my wiped-out account thread, I went with a technical analyst some jackass has posted (and still continue to post) right here at the FPA that there is good set-up for so-and-so currency pair and I, a much bigger jackass, believed him and went in big time (greedy for huge potential profits).
After I have taken the trade, a follow-up jackass analysis inform to cancel trade because his indicator has changed indicating trade direction has changed.


So, I am done with indicator & jackass analyst and will only make trades based on my own combination of some technical and mostly fundamental analysis

Hey Rahman

You are right, Fibonachi is an Italian, how do you know (Since you are not interested in indicators!)!
If I am not wrong, I also left that thread, the so called free/accurate(!!)/PA...or sth like this!

 

[ilearn2t]

Hello Everyone

My first prediction failed at 1.56am today just 26 minutes after the Australia Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes report, this after the report singled a possible cut in rates and that the Australian economy continues to perform below trend, earlier upward movement from the Australian dollar against their major counterparts, on the back of hopes that the US lawmakers are moving closer to a deal to raise the debt ceiling limit and end their government shut-down, help pushed the AUD/USD towards the failure line (0.9530) from an opening low of the start of trading week (0.9432).

Prediction(2)

CAD/JPY

This prediction will involve my own R&S points, ilearn2t_cross, Bands (Bollinger) indicators, plus fundamental analysis.

Prediction: Buy

Open 95.17
Target 97.50
Fail 94.09

Good luck
ilearn2t

 

[RahmanSL]

Hi ilearn2t

"My first prediction failed at 1.56am today just 26 minutes after the Australia Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes report..."

Well, no one can be correct 100% of the time...that's what make us human!

Right now, I supposed the whole financial world is waiting when the heck the great old U.S of A is going to start functioning as a responsible government, get their act together, and start running the country.

In anticipation of a sudden positive decision in resolving the deadlock, I am just about all-in short on NZD/USD at the 0.84 levels
Anywhere, regardless of the outcome from the U.S of A today, I believe that's good levels to start shorting the h**l out of the pair right up to the 0.85 levels (if it goes that high).
=================

Forgot to state reason for my trades.
Besides the above, the Kiwis simply does not like their currency to be valued too high up there against the USD....mainly to do with the "export" thing that keep their exports all rosy and good.