Market Reports by GulfBrokers - 2023

[syamfx2020]

Commodities, Precious metals and stocks ended mixed last week despite the latest US CPI and PPI readings showing continued month-over-month inflation moderation. Investors and market participants remain concerned about the debt ceiling impasse, after the meeting between President Biden and congressional leaders planned for Friday was postponed to next week.

This week the investors should continue to focus on the results of the debt ceiling meeting. The US President is expected to meet with Republican House Speaker Kevin McCarthy and other congressional leaders early this week to resume negotiations on the debt limit. During the last week, a White House meeting between President Joe Biden and congressional leaders on Tuesday ended without a deal.

On the other hand, the important economic events to watch are the series of inflation numbers from Canada, Japan and the Eurozone, the US housing data and retail sales.

On the earnings front, the companies scheduled to release their last quarter financial results this week are Walmart, Target, Cisco and Alibaba.

GOLD

Gold price responded positively to the April US Consumer Price Index report and reached a fresh weekly high of $2048 on Wednesday. While the bulls lost upside momentum after the metal formed a head and shoulder pattern near the $2048 area and retreated back to near the key support area of $2000. For gold, the week is littered with key U.S. economic figures and any market disappointment over the outcome of them could potentially support the metal.



The recent movement is sharp but still above the psycological support of $2000, which for now does not mean a downward movement but only a correction. Only a break and close below $1990 will give a more significant signal and amplify negative sentiment. In the short-term, we may see a further potential push down towards the $1993/90 area. On the flip side, a 4-hour close above $2030 invalidates the short-term bearish scenario for a squeeze up towards the next resistance at $2045.

DOLLAR INDEX

The U.S. dollar appreciated against most currencies last week—the dollar index rose to its highest level in four weeks. The Greenback‘s ascent recovery has extended even though the leading economic indicators, US CPI and PPI readings showed signs of slowing inflation. The index gained strong momentum on Friday after Fed Governor Michelle Bowman said that rates may need to be raised further if inflation persists. Some of the key data points expected to dictate this week's dollar movements include the US retail sales data, which is due out on Tuesday and appearances by a number of Federal Reserve policymakers this week.



The technical scenario is absolutely bullish after last week's bullish sentiment. While considering the recently bullish momentum the USD may find strong resistance this week above 103. On the downside, any meaningful pullback now seems to find some support near the 102.40 zones, below which the slide could further get extended towards the 102.20/00 regions.

EURUSD

The currency pair fell heavily towards the end of the week and broke support during the process after the US dollar regain strong bullish momentum. However, the European Central Bank policymakers maintain a hawkish line. Looking forward, Euro traders should pay attention to the releases of Eurozone GDP and German Zew economic sentiment numbers on Tuesday.



For this week, 1.0830 is the immediate support level, followed by 1.0800 then 1.0780. On the flip side, 1.0870/80 now seems to act as an immediate resistance, which, if cleared, might trigger a short-covering bounce. Any subsequent move up, however, is likely to attract fresh sellers near the 1.0910/30 mark.

DOW JONES

Dow Futures extended the losses on Friday after the May US Consumer Sentiment report showed worse expectations with a reading of 57.7 compared to a 63.5 reading last month. The bearish sentiment was also fueled after US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen warned that a failure by Congress to raise the debt ceiling in the coming weeks could lead to a “constitutional crisis. This week, Dow investors primarily focused on the major retail earnings and the meeting between Biden and congressional leaders.



From a technical perspective, The 33,100 area of confluence has recently been held as a firm support, failure to defend the mentioned support levels has the potential to drag the pair further towards the 32,900/800 support zone. On the upper side, in case the index manages to regain upside momentum, it will head towards the immediate resistance of 33,400 and then 33,800.

Check out the detailed review with charts here - https://gulfbrokers.com/en/weekly-review-gold-usd-eurusd-and-dow-jones-80

 

[syamfx2020]

After a sharp decline from the April high, crude oil prices found again support below $64 against the US Dollar. During the last week, the US WTI oil price rebounded back to above $73 while the market gave up those gains towards the end of the week due to the fears of a US economic slowdown and crude demand concerns emerged from both the US and China. Trade data from the world's largest importer, China showed that crude oil imports fell 16% annually to 10.6 million barrels per day in April.

A slightly stronger dollar also giving some additional pressure on commodities. However, the previous week's rise in the price of crude shows that the investor demand for black gold is regaining once again, and we should still see oil prices stabilize in the medium term.

On the positive side, U.S. Energy Information Administration revised higher its global oil demand outlook through 2024. "Although demand growth for liquid fuels faces downside risks through the end of 2024, we expect the seasonal rise in oil consumption and a drop in OPEC crude oil production to put some upward pressure on crude oil prices in the coming months," said EIA in its monthly report.

Crude prices filled the gap made by the OPEC+ production cut​

Oil prices started the second quarter of 2023 on a brighter note boosted by the surprise announcement by OPEC+ to cut production of more than 1 million barrels a day, which created a bullish gap in the price. However, by the end of April oil prices reversed all their gains from the OPEC move and filled the gap made by the OPEC+ production cut announcement, which brought the price back to below the yearly lows.

In the last 4-week, growing concerns about a potential US recession and a notable acceleration in implied U.S. oil production have spurred a material sell-off in oil. Considering the strong sell-off the US oil prices regained momentum after it found a double-bottom below $64. Moving ahead, this week Investors now look ahead to the Chinese economic data on Tuesday and weekly crude inventory data on Wednesday for some clarity on how the market may perform in the coming days.

US WTI technical outlook​

US WTI crude futures started this week with a positive price action. The daily chart shows that the price slightly rebounded in the past few weeks, but the overall momentum remains mixed. On the upper side, $73.80/74 (the previous week's high) remains the key resistance to watch, the bullish breakout of $74 is likely to push the US WTI crude into a new trading zone, which may offer further buying opportunities until $76.50 then $80.50. On the downside, the $64 level has shown itself to be supportive in the last few days, and there was a lot of choppy action there. In case the price breaks and closes below the $64 area then the forecast will become extremely bearish. This might result in a much bigger price drop below $60.

Read more here with chart - https://gulfbrokers.com/en/wti-crude-oil-consolidates-near-70-time-to-get-in

 

[syamfx2020]

A busy North American session ahead for global markets, all eyes are mainly on the outcome of US debt ceiling negotiations. The new round of debt ceiling negotiations resumes on Tuesday between US President Joe Biden and Congressional Leaders. The meeting has been scheduled for 3 p.m. ET on Tuesday. The meeting was previously scheduled for last Friday but was postponed. House Speaker Kevin McCarthy said Monday there's been “no progress” on debt ceiling talks while Biden remains optimistic about reaching an agreement with congressional Republicans.

“I remain optimistic because I’m a congenital optimist. But I really think there’s a desire on their part, as well as ours, to reach an agreement, and I think we’ll be able to do it.” - Biden said.

EQUITIES

European shares opened slightly lower as investors are now turning their eye to the release of Eurozone GDP data. On the other hand, Wall Street ended lower on Monday driven by mixed comments from the Fed officials. Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said he finds interest rate cuts unlikely this year, even if a recession should hit, while Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari suggested the central bank may have more work to do in its inflation fight.

OIL

Crude oil prices started the new week on a positive note supported by the weaker dollar and the resumption of US oil reserve purchases. While the upside momentum paused ahead of the new round of US debt ceiling negotiations as investors continue to assess whether the US government could reach a deal on the debt ceiling.

CURRENCIES

In the currency market, The US Dollar Index, which measures the greenback’s value against the basket of six major currencies retreats back to below 102.40. Today USD traders should closely monitor the release of the US Retail Sales for April which will give an indication of the strength of the US economy. The British pound remains volatile after the release of UK employment data. The jobs report showed the UK's unemployment rate has risen again unexpectedly while vacancies have fallen to the lowest level for 18 months.

GOLD

The precious metal remains undecided as to which way its next directional break will be. Technically, the overall momentum remained bearish throughout the Asian session. The US retail sales data is the key release today for gold. However, traders will also be watching the latest comments from the FED policymakers.

Economic Outlook

On the data front, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) released the minutes of its most recent monetary policy meeting flagged several upside risks to inflation and also highlighted another increase in the cash rate. "Members also agreed that further increases in interest rates may still be required, but that this would depend on how the economy and inflation evolve." – the minutes said.

Moving ahead today, the important events to watch:

Eurozone – GDP: GMT – 09:00

US – Retail sales: GMT – 12:30

Canada – CPI: GMT – 12:30

Technical Outlook and Review

EURUSD: The currency pair needs to stay above 1.0910 to have a chance to develop upside momentum in the near term. If the price break and closes above 1.0910, the next upside level to watch is 1.0940. On the downside, 1.0860 is the immediate support level, followed by 1.0840. Further selling pressure will intensify only if the pair break below the 1.0830 level.



The important levels to watch for today: Support- 1.0860 and 1.0830 Resistance- 1.0910 and 1.0940.

GOLD: For today, the first nearest support level is located at $2000. In case it breaks below this level, it will head towards the next support level which is located at near $1995/92. On the upper side, If the metal regains upside momentum and presses back above $2020 then the key resistance area to watch is $2032.



The important levels to watch for today: Support- 2000 and 1995 Resistance- 2014 and 2022.

Quote of the day – “Your success in investing will depend in part on your character and guts and in part on your ability to realize, at the height of ebullience and the depth of despair alike, that this too, shall pass.” Jack Bogle.
Read more here - https://gulfbrokers.com/en/daily-market-report-663

 

[syamfx2020]

The world's largest video game publisher Tencent reported robust first-quarter revenue numbers. The Chinese gaming giant revenue in the first quarter increased by 11% — the fastest growth in more than a year. The revenue came in at 150B Chinese yuan ($21.4B) vs. the 146.09B yuan expected. Net profit rose 11% to 25.83 billion yuan, versus a 29.67-billion-yuan average analyst estimate. The Q1 financial results indicate a strong recovery in consumption and growth in gaming and ad revenue. Tencent is a China-based investment holding company that was founded in 1998 and is one of the leading providers of Internet value-added services in China.

EQUITIES

US stock futures slightly recovered from the early losses after US President Biden and congressional leaders strike an optimistic tone after the debt ceiling meeting. Moving ahead to the North American session, the investors should also closely monitor the release of April US Housing Starts and Building Permits.

On the earnings front, Target and Cisco are amongst those reporting the last quarter's financial results today.

OIL

Crude oil futures rebounded from the early session lows. During the Asian session, the oil futures slides following the release of API crude inventory data. The API data showed the US crude inventories increased by 3.69 million barrels in the week that ended May 12th, compared to market expectation of a 1.300-million-barrel decline.

CURRENCIES

In the currency market, EURUSD hit a fresh monthly low of 1.0820. During the previous session, the currency pair recovered back to near 1.0900 but bulls failed to extend the upside momentum after the release of disappointing German ZEW economic sentiment data. The ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment for Germany experienced a significant decline in the latest May 2023 survey. With a reading of minus 10.7 points, it is 14.8 points lower than the previous month.

GOLD

The safe haven metal was largely subdued on Tuesday following the previous session’s sell-off as investors waited for fresh updates on the negotiations over the US debt ceiling, with President Joe Biden and House Speaker Kevin McCarthy edging closer to a deal late on Tuesday, though a consensus was not reached.

Economic Outlook

On the data front, US retail sales and industrial production advanced at a solid pace in April. US retail sales came in relatively strong, with the headline coming in at 0.4% MoM, following a previous decline of -0.7% in March. Meanwhile, Industrial production in the United States rose 0.5 percent from a month earlier in April 2023.

Moving ahead today, the important events to watch:

US – Housing starts and building permits: GMT – 12:30

US – EIA crude inventories: GMT – 14.30

Technical Outlook and Review

EURUSD: Technically the current price action signals suggest that the medium-term bearish trend remains intact. For today, the key support level is located at 1.0800. On the upper side, 1.0870 will act as an immediate and key hurdle while 1.0910 will be a critical resistance zone because, above this, strong upside momentum is likely to dominate.



The important levels to watch for today: Support- 1.0800 and 1.0780 Resistance- 1.0870 and 1.0910.

GOLD: Technically the overall trend still looks bearish, and the next immediate support is in 1980 then 1974. On the upper side, 1995 is the key resistance zones to watch for today, if the metal breaks and closes above this area then the next supply level to watch is around 2000 and 2008.



The important levels to watch for today: Support- 1980 and 1974 Resistance- 1995 and 2000.

Quote of the day – The single most important advice I can give is, to learn from your mistakes. That is the only way to become a successful trader- David Ryan.
Read more here - https://gulfbrokers.com/en/daily-market-report-664

 

[syamfx2020]

Walmart, America's largest retailer stock is consolidating now after failing to break above the 52-week high of 154.65. On Wednesday, the stock closed at $149.53. The company will be in focus today as it publishes its first-quarter financial results before the bell on Thursday. The company is expected to post quarterly earnings of $1.32 per share and revenues are expected to be $147.8 billion. On Wednesday, shares of the retail giant Target (NYSE: TGT) gained almost 3% after the company topped Wall Street’s first-quarter earnings and revenue estimates. While the retailer issued a cautious sales and profit outlook for the current period.

$WMT technical forecast

The daily chart shows the stock price slightly reversed from the recent highs. $WMT has a 52-week low of $117.27 and a 52-week high of $154.64. In the short term, the key resistance remains around $154.60/155, a break above this level will confirm a possible move to $160. On the downside, $147 is the immediate support level, followed by $144. If the stock breaks below $144, the slump will quickly extend toward the $141.80 and 140 marks.

EQUITIES

Wall Street ended higher on Wednesday after US President Joe Biden and House Speaker Kevin McCarthy both indicated confidence late on Wednesday that the US government will not default on its debt. While the upside momentum was limited after several Federal Reserve officials flagged the likelihood of continued aggressive monetary tightening despite the soft inflation signals.

OIL

Crude oil prices registered some solid gains on Wednesday despite a massive build in U.S. crude stocks. The EIA data showed on Wednesday the US crude inventories increased by 5.04 million barrels in the week ending May 12, 2023, the biggest weekly increase in 12 weeks, compared with market expectations of a 0.92 million drop.

CURRENCIES

In the currency market, pressured by the broad-based dollar strength, GBP/USD lost its traction and dropped below 1.2430 on Wednesday. In the absence of high-tier macroeconomic data releases, risk perception could drive the pair's action in the second half of the day. On the other hand, EURUSD hovers near the monthly low as the US Dollar remains strong. The sustainability of any gain in the currency pair in the coming days will largely depend on how the US dollar behaves.

GOLD

A strong U.S. dollar is creating headwinds for gold. The safe-haven metal plunged to a fresh monthly low of $1974. For today, the main drivers for the precious metal remain the comments from the FED policymakers and the movement of the US dollar.

Economic Outlook

On the data front, the US reported mixed housing data on Wednesday. US Housing Starts increased 2.2% last month to 1.4 million in April, compared to market forecasts of 1.4 million. While building permits declined 1.5% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.416 million in April.

Moving ahead today, the important events to watch:

US – Jobless claims: GMT – 12:30

US – Philly Fed index: GMT – 12.30

Technical Outlook and Review

EURUSD: Technically the overall sentiment remains bearish. However, a fresh demand for pair can be anticipated once the euro rises above the 1.0900 resistance. Nevertheless, if it continues to fall near the 1.0800 support, the slump will quickly extend toward the 1.0860 mark.



The important levels to watch for today: Support- 1.0790 and 1.0760 Resistance- 1.0850 and 1.0880.

GOLD: For gold, the first nearest support level is located around 1970. In case it breaks below this level, it will head towards the next support level which is located near 1964/60. On the upside, 1980 will act as an immediate and strong hurdle while 1986 will be a critical resistance zone.



The important levels to watch for today: Support- 1970 and 1964 Resistance- 1980 and 1986.

Quote of the day – “A lot of people get so enmeshed in the markets that they lose their perspective. Working longer does not necessarily equate to working smarter. In fact, sometimes it is the other way around.” - Martin Schwartz.
Read more - https://gulfbrokers.com/en/daily-market-report-665

 

[syamfx2020]

AUDUSD retreats back to near previous session lows of 0.6630 after the release of weak jobs reports. While despite the disappointing jobs data the overall lower volatility suggests downside appears limited as risk appetite improves and support-based buying could again emerge at lower levels.

The Australian employment report showed that the number of officially unemployed people rose in April, by 18,000, and the unemployment rate rose to 3.7%, higher than the anticipated 3.5%. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) already closely monitoring the economic data for the next move in its official cash rate. The central bank has lifted its cash rate target from 3.6 to 3.85 per cent, marking the 11th increase in the space of a year.

AUDUSD, short-term and long-term technical outlook​

Technically the current price action signals suggest that a short-term bearish trend remains intact. The below chart reveals a few key levels which act as the areas of supply and demand. On the downside, 0.6628 is the immediate support level, followed by 0.6595. If the pair breaks below 0.6595, the slump will quickly extend toward the key demand area of 0.6565/60. On the upper side, the currency pair is likely to find immediate resistance at 0.6680 and then 0.6710, any break above the 0.6710 level could lead the prices of the Aussie towards the next resistance level of 0.6770 and 0.6800.

In the long term, watch for the weekly close below 0.6560 or above 0.6820, which will give a larger confirmation of direction in the long term.

Read the original article here - https://gulfbrokers.com/en/audusd-watch-for-weekly-close-candle-for-next-direction

 

[syamfx2020]

Netflix Inc (NASDAQ: NFLX) stock surged almost 10% on Thursday after the streaming pioneer unveiled details about its new ad development to advertisers. The company said it had five million monthly active users for its cheaper, ad-supported option and 25% of its new subscribers were signing up for the newest tier.

“It’s why, despite all the competition out there, Netflix is the most popular streaming service today. To be the one to watch, you need everyone watching. And that’s what sets Netflix apart,” - Netflix co-CEO Greg Peters said.

Netflix launched a $7-a-month option with ads last November in 12 markets, including the U.S., as an alternative to ad-free plans that start at $10 a month. Globally Netflix ended March with 233 million total paid subscribers, including around 74.3 million in the U.S. and Canada.

EQUITIES

US stock futures remain steady boosted by positive comments from the current speaker of the United States House of Representatives Kevin McCarthy. He said on Thursday the House could vote on the debt ceiling deal as soon as next week. Moving ahead today, the investors and market participants observe Fed policymakers Williams and Bowman's remarks for further insights along with the Fed Chair Jerome Powell's speech.

OIL

Crude oil prices hold the weekly gains. The bullish momentum lifted after the US government announced earlier this week that it would purchase up to 3 million barrels of crude oil to replenish its depleted Strategic Petroleum Reserve, with deliveries planned for August. Today, oil price dynamics will be influenced by scheduled speeches by Fed members, the US dollar movement and US debt ceiling talks.

CURRENCIES

In the currency market, the king dollar rally takes a pause on Friday Morning. The recent strong upside momentum was boosted by hawkish comments from the Federal Reserve policymakers and better-than-expected US economic data. Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan said the latest data doesn’t justify a pause in rate hikes yet. The dollar index traded flat and gave back some of the gains it made on Thursday as investors looked ahead to FED Powell's speech for more clues about the Federal Reserve's next steps.

GOLD

Gold price rebounded back to above $1965. During the previous session, the metal plunged to a fresh monthly low of $1952 after the U.S. dollar index and U.S. bond yields soared to near two-month highs. On the macro side, US Dollar strength and hawkish signals from US Federal Reserve officials were the main bearish factors impacting precious metals this week. Technically, the $1950 area remains supportive while If the US dollar extends further upside strength, we could see an extension to the weakness in the precious metals.

Economic Outlook

On the data front, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index declines but sees improvement from April. The Philadelphia Fed's U.S. manufacturing index rose to -10.4 in May 2023 from a nearly three-year low of -31.3 in April, and better than market forecasts of -19.8. On the other hand, the Labor Department data showed the US Initial unemployment claims fell by 22,000 to 242,000 in the week ended May 13.

Moving ahead today, the important events to watch:

Canada – Retail Sales: GMT – 12:30

US – FED chair Jerome Powell's speech: GMT – 15.00

Technical Outlook and Review

EURUSD: EURUSD slightly recovered from the early losses and moved back to 1.0800 after the pair found support buyers near a lower channel trend line. For today, 1.0750/60 remains the key support area to watch. On the upper side, we can expect a short-term bounce towards the top of the trendline if the pair regains upside momentum.



The important levels to watch for today: Support- 1.0760 and 1.0740 Resistance- 1.0810 and 1.0840.

GOLD: For today, the metal is supported at the 1950/48 area, any break below this level will open the doors to 1940 and 1935. On the flip side, if the metal breaks above 1968 it would open doors towards the next resistance area of 1972 and 1975.



The important levels to watch for today: Support- 1958 and 1950 Resistance- 1968 and 1975.

Quote of the day – “If you don't like to lose money and it affects your judgment, don't buy things that can go down a great deal.” Walter Schloss.
Read more - https://gulfbrokers.com/en/daily-market-report-666

 

[syamfx2020]

The US dollar retreated from the 2-month highs while US stocks and oil prices ended slightly lower on Friday following the mixed remarks from US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen and Fed Chair Jerome Powell. The Fed chair Jerome Powell reinstated that inflation is still far above the target, but rates may not have to rise much higher due to tightening credit conditions. Powell said that it would take “some time” for inflation to moderate and that the central bank would continue to look at data as it considers whether to raise rates next month. US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen told bank CEOs that more merges may be necessary after a series of bank failures spooked investors.

Moving ahead, this week the markets have a lot of economic data to digest and the main highlights of the economic calendar will be the RBNZ interest rate decision, FOMC minutes, US GDP, PCE inflation and durable goods orders data. While It will also be an idea to keep a lookout for the fresh updates from the US debt ceiling negotiations and comments from the FED speakers this week including FED members James Bullard and Bostic.

On the earnings front, the companies scheduled to release their last quarter financial results this week will be Nvidia, Costco, Gap, Zoom and Snowflake.

GOLD

Gold price fails to witness a positive start for the new week as investors cautiously wait for new updates from the US debt ceiling negotiations. During the last week, the safe-haven metal after making a low at $1952, staged a smart recovery back to above $1980 on Friday as the USD gave back some of the gains. For this week, gold investors and traders should continue to monitor the comments from the FED policymakers and the last FOMC meeting minutes for clues as to their outlook for interest rates.



This week, the metal needs to stay above 1985 to have a chance to develop upside momentum in the near term. If the price break and closes above 1985, the next upside level to watch is $1993/95 then $2000. On the downside, if the metal break below the previous week's low of $1952 the next immediate downside area is to watch $1940 and $1935/32.

DOLLAR INDEX

The dollar index traded with a bearish bias on Friday but again the DXY found support near the 103 area. Therefore, the outlook of the pair is neutral with a bullish bias. More downside will be confirmed only if it moves below 103. For the dollar this week, important economic news to watch includes US FED minutes on Wednesday, the US GDP report on Thursday and PCE inflation data on Friday.



The Index remained in a range above 102 last week, and the initial bias remains neutral for the upcoming week. The key resistance is located for the DXY above the previous week's high of 103.60, a break above this level will confirm a possible move to 104. On the downside, any meaningful pullback now seems to find some support near the 103 area, below which the slide could further get extended towards the 102.70/60 regions.

EURUSD

The currency pair recovered part of its loss on Friday after showing steep weakness in the first few days of last week. While the upside momentum was limited after the latest German producer price inflation slowed down to its lowest level in over two years, suggesting that inflationary pressures in Europe's largest economy have further eased. The key data for Euro for this week will once again be the Manufacturing data from Eurozone and Germany. However, the US dollar movement will continue to play a vital role in this currency pair's future direction.



From a technical perspective, The 1.0760 area of confluence has recently been held as a firm support, failure to defend the mentioned support levels has the potential to drag the pair further towards the 1.0730 and 1.0710 support zone. On the upper side, in case the pair manages to settle above 1.0850, it will regain upside momentum and head towards the next resistance level at 1.0900 and 1.0930.

DOW JONES

Dow Futures started the new week on a mixed note as investors wait to see the outcome of the US debt ceiling meeting. Meanwhile, a busy Q4 earnings season is largely over while there are few earnings of broad significance due this week. This week, the FED minutes from its May meeting will likely have a significant effect on the Dow Jones and other US indices because the minutes will hold more clues on what could come next.



Technically the overall momentum remains mixed. The first support for the Dow appears to be around 33,200 followed by 33,000, in the short-term any break below 33,300, the next downside level to watch is 32,800. On the other upper side, the immediate resistance is around 33,680 then 33,800, any break and close above 33,800 will open 34,200/50.

Read more with charts here - https://gulfbrokers.com/en/weekly-review-gold-usd-eurusd-and-dow-jones-81

 

[syamfx2020]

Following a sharp drop to a fresh 2-month low of 1.7170 on Friday last week, the EURNZD pair staged a rebound and was traded above 1.7230 during the European session on Monday. However, the pair retreats back to below 1.72 later in the session as the upside momentum was limited. The traders remained cautious ahead of a highly anticipated decision by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand on whether to raise its benchmark interest rate again this week.

The New Zealand Dollar is set to take the limelight midweek when the RBNZ is widely expected to hike by another 25bps on Wednesday. The market is pricing in a 68% chance the RBNZ increases rates by 25 basis points at this week's meeting. Meanwhile, euro price action this week has been dominated largely by US fundamentals and PMI data from Eurozone and Germany.

EURNZD short-term technical outlook

Technically the overall momentum remains mixed after the last week's sell-off. I expect the pair is likely to see more volatility going forward. In the short term, if the pair regained bullish momentum, then the next upside level to watch is 1.7260/70. If prices settle above 1.7260, the pair could re-test the hourly 200-SMA located near 1.7340. Successful clearance of this price level gives the bulls clear skies to aim for 1.7400. Although, the retracement rally on the EURNZD could provide new rally-selling opportunities. On the downside side, if the pair fails to regain upside momentum, then downside action should continue.

Read more - https://gulfbrokers.com/en/eurnzd-could-see-a-bounce-back-to-above-174-this-week

 

[syamfx2020]

The California-based teleconferencing platform Zoom Video Communications Inc (NASDAQ: ZM) reported better-than-expected earnings and revenue for its fiscal first quarter on Monday. Zoom ended the last quarter with 215,900 enterprise customers, up 9% from a year earlier. The company also increased its forecasted annual revenue due to the growth in hybrid work. Zoom shares initially rallied nearly 4% after the earnings announcement.

• Earnings per share: $1.16 vs. $0.99 expected
• Revenue: $1.11 billion vs. $1.09 billion expected

"The solid start to the year has enabled us to raise our outlook for the fiscal year 2024, our customers see Zoom as mission-critical in how they collaborate internally and externally across the globe,” Zoom CEO Eric Yuan said.

EQUITIES

US stock futures extend losses after U.S. President Joe Biden and House Speaker Kevin McCarthy's debt-ceiling meeting ended without a deal. If the debt ceiling is not increased, U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen has stated that the department will be unable to fulfil its financial obligations. The United States is "highly" at risk of defaulting on payments as early as June "If Congress fails to raise the debt limit", Janet Yellen warns again.

OIL

Crude oil prices trade flat as investors grew more cautious about placing aggressive bids ahead of FOMC minutes and the weekly crude inventory report to be announced tomorrow. On the other hand, investors also started to bet on more interest-rate hikes from the Federal Reserve following the hawkish comments from Fed’s Bullard and Kashkari.

CURRENCIES

In the currency market, EURUSD bears are firmly in control. On the macro side, US Dollar strength and hawkish signals from US Federal Reserve officials were the main bearish factors impacting the Euro. The currency pair has been moving lower since starting of this month, largely due to a broad strengthening in the US dollar.

GOLD

The rise in the dollar has been a setback for gold, which trades near the monthly lows. The Federal Reserve's hawkish remarks contributed to negative sentiment in the commodities market. St. Louis Fed President James Bullard said on Monday that the United States may need to raise rates twice this year to contain stubbornly rising inflation.

Economic Outlook

On the data front, today all eyes are focused on the several purchasing managers surveys, countries such as Germany, the UK, the US, and the Eurozone. PMIs are significant as they tend to be reliable leading indicators of growth. A reading above 50 indicates expansion while a sub-50 print indicates contraction in the sector surveyed. UK, Eurozone, and Germany already published weaker-than-expected manufacturing PMI data a few hours back.

Moving ahead today, the important events to watch:

US – Manufacturing and services PMI: GMT – 13:45

US – New home sales: GMT – 14.00

Technical Outlook and Review

EURUSD: For today, the resistance for the EUR/USD appears to be around 1.0840. If the price break and closes above 1.0840, the next level to watch is 1.0870 then 1.0900. On the downside, if the pair breaks below 1.0790 the next immediate downside area to watch is near 1.0760.



The important levels to watch for today: Support- 1.0780 and 1.0760 Resistance- 1.0810 and 1.0840.

GOLD: The precious metal remains under pressure a clear breakdown of the support at $1950 could open space for further declines while only recovery to $1990 would reverse the short-term negative trend.



The important levels to watch for today: Support- 1950 and 1944 Resistance- 1964 and 1970.

Quote of the day – “Speculation is an effort, probably unsuccessful, to turn a little money into a lot. Investment is an effort, which should be successful, to prevent a lot of money from becoming a little.” – Fred Schwed.
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