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[Antony_NPBFX]

Brent Crude Oil: general analysis 29.05.2019

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NPBFX offers the latest release of analytics on Brent Crude Oil for a better understanding of the current market situation and more efficient trading.

Current trend

Oil is trading near the resistance level of 70.84.

At the moment, the risks of further reduction are high. Statistics on commercial oil reserves in the United States continues to grow due to the low refinery load, which is a negative signal for the course. Last week, the figure rose by 4.7 million barrels against the analysts' forecast of 0.6 million, and the total figure reached 476.8 million barrels, which is a record value over the past two years. Due to high reserves, the oil refining industry is also weakening: in the Middle West, the figure fell to 82.7%.

The second negative factor is the aggravation of the trade conflict between the United States and China. Last week, Donald Trump noted that he still hopes to settle all trade issues with Beijing, and the trade agreement is still possible. If the parties cannot agree, then the new list of Chinese companies will be added to the blacklist of the US Treasury.

On the other hand, the PRC and a number of other countries stated that they had completely stopped making direct purchases of “black gold” from Iran due to sanctions from the White House. Reducing the supply in the global market is a positive signal for the instrument and can significantly support the quotes.

Support and resistance

Stochastic is at the level of 34 and does not give signals for opening positions.

Resistance levels: 70.84, 71.80.

Support levels: 68.37, 67.40.

Trading tips

Long positions can be opened after the breakout of the level of 70.84 with the target at 71.80 and stop loss 70.00.

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[Antony_NPBFX]

USD/JPY: wave analysis 31.05.2019

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NPBFX offers the latest release of analytics on USD/JPY for a better understanding of the current market situation and more efficient trading.

The pair may fall.

On the 4-hour chart, a downward correction develops as the wave ii of 3 shaped as a zigzag. Now, the ending wave (c) of ii is developing, within which the development of the third wave of the lower level iii of (c) has begun. If the assumption is correct, the pair will fall to the levels of 108.42–107.50. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 109.93.

Main scenario

Short positions will become relevant during the correction, below the level of 109.93 with the targets at 108.42–107.50. Implementation period: 5–7 days.

Alternative scenario

The breakout and the consolidation of the price above the level of 109.93 will let the pair grow to the levels of 112.40–114.44.

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[Antony_NPBFX]

XAU/USD: gold is growing 03.06.2019

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NPBFX offers the latest release of analytics on XAU/USD for a better understanding of the current market situation and more efficient trading.

Current trend

At the end of the last trading week, gold prices rose substantially, renewing the highs since the end of March this year. Strengthening the instrument was a response of the market to the promises of Donald Trump to introduce import duties on all Mexican goods if Mexico does not restrict the flow of illegal migrants. Taxes can be introduced as early as June 10th. Investors are extremely sensitive to such Trump’s statements because the new import duties threaten a significant slowdown in global economic growth and the possible development of a recession.

The price is additionally supported by increased expectations of the Fed’s interest rates decrease. The latest macroeconomic data from the United States indicated a further weakening of a number of sectors of the American economy, so investors try to avoid risk more.

Support and resistance

On the daily chart, Bollinger bands move flat. The price range actively expands but not as fast as the "bullish" sentiment develops. The MACD is growing, keeping a strong buy signal (the histogram is above the signal line). Stochastic is directed upwards but is close to its highs, which indicates that the instrument may be overbought in the super short term.

It is better to keep current long positions and wait for additional signals from the indicators before opening new positions.

Resistance levels: 1312.52, 1318.31, 1324.35.

Support levels: 1306.17, 1300.50, 1297.00, 1293.84.

Trading tips

Long positions can be opened after the breakout of 1312.52 with the target at 1324.35. Stop loss is 1306.17. Implementation period: 1–2 days.

Short positions can be opened after a rebound from 1312.52 and the breakdown of 1306.17 with the target at 1293.84 or 1288.49. Stop loss is 1315.00. Implementation period: 2–3 days.

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[Antony_NPBFX]

NZD/USD: the New Zealand dollar is growing 05.06.2019

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NPBFX offers the latest release of analytics on NZD/USD for a better understanding of the current market situation and more efficient trading.

Current trend

Yesterday, NZD rose slightly against USD, continuing the development of a powerful “bullish” impulse formed at the beginning of the week. Today, during the Asian session, the instrument is also trading in an upward manner, renewing local highs since May 3. NZD grows against the background of corrective sentiment on the US currency and increased demand for shelter assets due to the aggravation of trade conflicts. However, the macroeconomic background from New Zealand remains ambiguous. The price index for dairy products published the day before dropped sharply by 3.4% MoM in April after falling by 1.2% MoM last month. Analysts expected a decline of 2.8% MoM.

Support and resistance

On the daily chart, Bollinger bands are smoothly reversing into an upward plane. The price range is expanding, however, not as fast as the upward trend is developing in the short term. The MACD indicator is growing, keeping a strong buy signal (the histogram is above the signal line), and is preparing to test for a breakout of the zero line. Stochastic keeps upward direction but has already reached its high, signaling that the instrument is overbought in the super-short term.

It is better to keep current positions until the market situation becomes clearer.

Resistance levels: 0.6645, 0.6664, 0.6683.

Support levels: 0.6613, 0.6581, 0.6562, 0.6546.

Trading tips

Long positions can be opened after the breakout of 0.6645 with the target at 0.6683 or 0.6700. Stop loss is 0.6620–0.6615.
Short positions can be opened after a rebound from 0.6645 and breakdown of 0.6620–0.6613 with the targets at 0.6562–0.6546. Stop loss is 0.6650.

Implementation period: 2–3 days.

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[Antony_NPBFX]

USD/JPY: the dollar is consolidating 07.06.2019

Good afternoon, dear forum visitors!

NPBFX offers the latest release of analytics on USD/JPY for a better understanding of the current market situation and more efficient trading.

Current trend

USD showed ambiguous dynamic of trading against JPY, ending yesterday’s trading session with a slight decrease. Pressure on USD was exerted by weak macroeconomic data from the United States published on Thursday. In addition, investors are cautiously waiting for the release of the May report on the US labor market, because according to the previously published ADP report, the real state of the market may be significantly worse than expectations.

In turn, the yen continues to receive moderate support from the risks of developing US trade conflicts with China and Mexico and a possible interest rate cut by the Fed in the foreseeable future. The process of negotiations between the US and Mexico has not yet brought visible success, but the market as a whole is quite optimistic and expects that on June 10, import duties on Mexican goods will not be introduced.

Support and resistance

Bollinger Bands in D1 chart demonstrate a gradual decrease. The price range is narrowing, reflecting the emergence of ambiguous dynamics of trading in the short term. MACD is growing, keeping a weak buy signal (located above the signal line). Stochastic shows similar dynamics, actively recovering from Tuesday. The indicator still points at sufficient potential for the development of corrective growth in the ultra-short term.

One should consider an opportunity to open new long positions in the short and/or ultra-short term.

Resistance levels: 108.55, 109.00, 109.30, 109.76.

Support levels: 108.15, 107.80, 107.47.

Trading tips

To open long positions, one can rely on the breakout of 108.55. Take profit — 109.30 or 109.50. Stop loss — 108.15.

The rebound from 108.55 as from resistance with the subsequent breakdown of 108.15 can become a signal to return to sales with targets at 107.47–107.30. Stop loss — 108.55.

Implementation time: 2-3 days.

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[Antony_NPBFX]

Brent Crude Oil: oil prices are growing 10.06.2019

Good afternoon, dear forum visitors!

NPBFX offers the latest release of analytics on Brent Crude Oil for a better understanding of the current market situation and more efficient trading.

Current trend

Oil prices recovered significantly at the end of last week, departing from local lows of January 29, updated on June 5. The quotes are supported by positive comments by the Minister of Energy of Saudi Arabia, Khalid Al-Falih, who said that Riyadh does not plan to increase production to compensate for current oil prices, which, in his opinion, remain low and do not imply an increase in investment in the industry. Instead, Saudi Arabia is in favor of extending the OPEC agreement, which ends at the end of this month. At the end of last week, quotes were also supported by Baker Hughes report on active oil rigs in the USA, the number of which for the reporting week dropped sharply from 800 to 789 units.

Support and resistance

On the daily chart, Bollinger Bands are steadily declining. The price range is narrowing from below, reflecting a quite sharp change of trend in the short term. MACD indicator is growing preserving a moderate buy signal (located above the signal line). Stochastic is growing almost vertically but is approaching its highs, which reflects the overbought instrument in the ultra-short term.
It is necessary to keep the existing long positions and open new ones in the short and/or ultra-short term until new trading signals from the indicators appear.

Resistance levels: 65.00, 66.06, 67.00, 67.70.

Support levels: 64.02, 63.08, 61.81, 60.51.

Trading tips

Long positions may be opened after the level of 65.00 is broken out with target at 67.70 or 68.63. Stop loss — 63.50 or 63.08.
Short positions may be opened after the rebound from 65.00 and the breakdown of 64.02 with targets at 60.51–60.00. Stop loss — 65.20.
Implementation time: 2-3 days.

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Use the current recommendations of analysts on Brent Crude Oil and trade efficiently with NPBFX.

 

[Antony_NPBFX]

USD/CHF: dollar strengthens 12.06.2019

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NPBFX offers the latest release of analytics on USD/CHF for a better understanding of the current market situation and more efficient trading.

Current trend

Yesterday, USD rose moderately against CHF, partially offsetting a decline at the end of the last week. The growth was largely technical in nature since the macroeconomic background from the United States remained ambiguous, and there was very little key data from the EU.

Investors welcomed the growth of the US NFIB business optimism index from 103.5 to 105.0 points in May. At the same time, the index of economic optimism from IBD/TIPP for June dropped sharply from 58.6 to 53.2 points, while analysts predicted its growth to 59.2 points. The May inflation rate in the USA also slowed down a bit. In May, the producer price index increased by 0.1% MoM after increasing by 0.2% MoM in April. The indicator decreased from +2.2% YoY to +1.8% YoY, which turned out to be worse than the forecast +2.0% YoY.

Support and resistance

On the daily chart, Bollinger bands decline. The price range is almost unchanged and remains quite spacious for the current activity level. The MACD reversed upwards, forming a buy signal (the histogram is above the signal line). Stochastic reversed upwards, being above the middle of its working area. The current readings of the indicator reflect the potential for the development of upward dynamics in the super-short term.

It is possible to open long positions in the short and/or super short term.

Resistance levels: 0.9935, 0.9960, 1.0000, 1.0020.

Support levels: 0.9900, 0.9878, 0.9853.

Trading tips

Long positions can be opened after the breakout of 0.9935 or 0.9960 with the target at 1.0020 or 1.0047. Stop loss is 0.9920 or 0.9900.

Short positions can be opened after the breakdown of 0.9900 with the target at 0.9853 or 0.9820. Stop loss is 0.9930.

Implementation period: 2–3 days.

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[Antony_NPBFX]

XAG/USD: silver prices are rising 14.06.2019

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NPBFX offers the latest release of analytics on XAG/USD for a better understanding of the current market situation and more efficient trading.

Current trend

Silver prices continue to rise moderately due to increased uncertainty and risk in the market. Investors continue to follow the development of trade relations between the United States and China but before the G20 summit, there is no news on this issue expected, and the continuing tensions in relations will support the instrument. The situation with Brexit again adds additional volatility to the market. After the resignation of the current British Prime Minister Theresa May, tensions increased significantly, and the market again spoke about the possibility of the country’s withdrawal from the EU without an agreement. One of the leaders of the pre-election race, Boris Johnson, is also considering the “tight” Brexit scenario.

Support and resistance

Bollinger bands are actively growing on the daily chart. The price range narrows, reflecting the ambiguous nature of trading in the short/medium term. The MACD indicator is growing, keeping a poor buy signal (the histogram is above the signal line). Stochastic is pointed upwards and is located approximately in the center of its working area, which indicates good prospects for the development of an upward trend in the short and/or super short term.

The current readings of the indicators do not contradict the further growth of the instrument in the nearest time intervals.

Resistance levels: 15.00, 15.12, 15.24.

Support levels: 14.90, 14.82, 14.72, 14.62.

Trading tips

Long positions can be opened from the level of 15.00 with the target at 15.24. Stop loss is 14.90.
Short positions can be opened after the rebound from the level of 15.00 and the breakdown of the level of 14.90 with the target at 14.72 or 14.62. Stop loss is 15.00.

Implementation period: 2–3 days.

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Use the current recommendations of analysts on XAG/USD and trade efficiently with NPBFX.

 

[Antony_NPBFX]

USD/CHF: the dollar is growing 17.06.2019

Good afternoon, dear forum visitors!

NPBFX offers the latest release of analytics on USD/CHF for a better understanding of the current market situation and more efficient trading.

Current trend

On Friday, SD rose steadily against CHF, renewing the highs since June 3. Today, during the Asian session, the instrument continues to strengthen, despite the fact that the fundamental background promises to be neutral.

USD is supported by strong macroeconomic statistics from the USA. Thus, Industrial Production rose by 0.4% MoM in May after a decrease of 0.4% MoM in the previous period. Analysts expected a recovery of positive dynamics but waited for the increase only by 0.2% MoM. The Capacity Utilization rate in May rose from 77.9% to 78.1%, which turned out to be better than the market forecast of 78.0%.

Support and resistance

On the daily chart, Bollinger bands are moderately decreasing, tending to reverse into a horizontal plane. The price range is actively narrowing, reflecting a sharp change in the direction of trading in the short/medium term. The MACD indicator is growing, keeping a strong buy signal (the histogram is above the signal line). Stochastic approached its highs and reversed into a horizontal plane, indicating the growing risks of a corrective decline in the super short term.

It is better to keep current long positions until the market situation becomes clearer.

Resistance levels: 1.0000, 1.0020, 1.0047, 1.0085.

Support levels: 0.9960, 0.9935, 0.9900, 0.9878.

Trading tips

Long positions can be opened after the breakout of the level of 1.0000 with the target at 1.0050 or 1.0085. Stop loss is 0.9970–0.9960.
Short positions can be opened after a rebound from the level of 1.0000 and the breakdown of the levels of 0.9970–0.9960 with the target at 0.9900 or 0.9878. Stop loss is no further than 1.0000.

Implementation period: 2–3 days.

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[Antony_NPBFX]

USD/JPY: ambiguous dynamics 19.06.2019

Good afternoon, dear forum visitors!

NPBFX offers the latest release of analytics on USD/JPY for a better understanding of the current market situation and more efficient trading.

Current trend

USD showed a noticeable decline against JPY yesterday but managed to recover. The instrument was supported by optimistic comments from Donald Trump on Twitter announcing a meeting with PRC leader Xi Jinping at the G20 summit. China and the USA should start meeting in the near future to discuss the trade conflict.

Today, the instrument is trading in both directions, and investors expect new drivers and a significant increase in volatility at the end of the week. The Fed meeting will take place on Wednesday, and on Thursday, the BoJ and the BoE will meet, too. Today, the yen is pressured by the statistics from Japan. Exports in May collapsed by 7.8% YoY after falling by 2.4% YoY last month. Imports decreased from 6.5% YoY to -1.5% YoY with a forecast of 0.2% YoY. In May, trade balance was again in deficit of -967.1 billion yen.

Support and resistance

Bollinger Bands on the D1 chart are reversing horizontally. The price range narrows slightly from above, remaining uncomfortable enough for a possible increase in volatility in the second half of the week. MACD indicator is growing preserving a weak buy signal (histogram is above the signal line). Stochastic retains an uncertain downward direction, responding to the predominantly "bearish" start of the week.
To open new transactions, one should wait for additional signals to appear.

Resistance levels: 108.47, 108.79, 109.00, 109.30.

Support levels: 108.30, 108.05, 107.80, 107.47.

Trading tips

Long positions should be opened if the price moves away from support levels followed by the breakout of 108.50–108.60. Take-profit – 109.30. Stop loss – 108.30–108.20.

The development of "bearish" dynamics with the breakdown of 108.10–108.00 may become a signal to start sales with the target at 107.60–107.50. Stop loss – 108.30–108.40.

Implementation period: 2-3 days.

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