Hi all,
Can somebody shead some light on the topic of a news release being "priced in to the market" for a certain currency pair? I understand the definition, but not clear about timeframes, amounts priced in, and any unfavorable impact of an indicator being priced in pre release.
Any help on this topic would be great.
Thank you in advance.
NoTime
Hi Notime,
From what I can gather, the term ''Priced In'' seems to be a carry over term from the Stockmarket regarding a company's news release.
With releases you will have 3 numbers:
1. Last release figure
2. Consensus figure - this is what the figure is generally expected to be.
3. Actual Figure
If the pair is in a downtrend for example before the figure is released, if the actual figure that comes out is near the consensus figure, it wont really affect the trend which means the figure is already taken into account regarding the trend.
If the figure is worse than the consensus figure, it will give the trend a large boost downward.
If the figure is much greater than expected, you could see a reversal of the downtrend for 20-50 pips or more.
The opposite can be said for a prevailing uptrend before release.
As you said, you probably already understand this.
As for the timeframes, it would be as soon as the news is released. The figure would have to be at an extreme level opposite the consensus for it to have an impact in the opposite direction of the prevailing trend. It's probably best to get Felix's email signals for an idea of figures that would affect the pair.
The unfavourable impact would depend entirely on the actual figure released as described above.
Hope this helps - Happy Trading!