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Sir Pipsalot's Monday Market Update 04-05-2010

Discussion in 'Commercial Trade Journals' started by Sir Pipsalot, Apr 4, 2010.

  1. Sir Pipsalot

    Sir Pipsalot Former FPA Special Consultant

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    Hey folks,

    Not much to say today except to reiterate that it looks like the EUR/USD has transitioned into a medium term uptrend for the next few weeks or so as it retraces a chunk of the downmove since December. The ideal target for this first leg up is around 1.3800, but keep in mind the larger trend is down and after this retracement ends, we will likely see thousands of pips downwards, so tread carefully and use prudent SL's.

    Some markets had the day off last Friday, and several also have the day off today on Monday. The US will see resumption of normal trading though, so I expect the bulk of the action to come during the US session.

    In news Friday, we saw NonFarm Payrolls come out just slightly below expectations, but the big positive total attracted some USD strength and we saw steady gains in the USD across the board, with about 50-80 pips up on the USD/JPY depending on how long one stayed in. I wouldn't have taken a trade on the fundamentals on this one though... no clear surprise on the news. On Monday, we have no news coming out worthy of news trading attention, but early Tuesday morning we have:

    0030 (EST Tuesday) - RBA Interest Rate Statement (Experts split between no change and 0.25% hike) - This one should be good with experts and futures markets split between expecting a hike and expecting a pause. If anything, the experts bias is slightly towards a hike, but it's close enough to 50-50. This will put us into a trading opportunity no matter which way they go.
    If they hike rates by 0.25% to 4.25%, AUD/USD should rally 40-50 pips.
    If they leave rates unchanged at 4.00% or cut rates, AUD/USD should fall 40-50 pips.
    Depending on the commentary released with the decision, the move could extend further on supportive commentary, or get stuck and potentially whipsaw around on qualifying commentary.

    That's all for today's update. If you'd like to learn more about trading or trade along with myself and my collegues, come join us at Profit Mongers. Our subscription is very reasonable at $179 per month, and right now you can sign up for a 2 week trial to get started for only $29. This offer is for new customers only. If you have any questions, you can also email me at sirpipsalot@profitmongers.com

    To our success!
    Sir Pipsalot
     

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