Test Drive Winsor's 5 Expert Advisors in Real Time

[winsor]

Iran Assume the Presidency of OPEC

October 14, 2010 Update

Mr. Masoud Mir-Kazemi, minister of Iranian Petroleum will become the president of OPEC on January 1, 2011. As most of you are aware OPEC stands for Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries which make up of twelve countries Algeria, Angola, Ecuador, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Libya, Nigeria, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, UAE, and Venezuela. We are all familiar with the term “drug cartel” and OPEC is the “oil cartel”. OPEC nations own more than 60% of world’s oil reserves, and account for more than 30% of world’s old production. This allowed them to wield considerable control over the price of oil in the global market. Thanks to the discovery and development of large oil reserves in Alaska, North Sea, Canada, Gulf of Mexico, and Russia, OPEC’s ability to control the price of oil has weaken but they still can influence the oil price by setting their daily oil production target.

One day maybe there are enough users of my five trading systems that we can form a “Forex Cartel”. Jasmine automated trading system has been performing extremely well; hence, more followers will come onboard to use our trading systems. Currently, Jasmine net profit stands at $6,841 (68% return) or 6,841 pips in less than 5 months. Will this perform continue to last month over month? Not a chance but let appreciate the moment and enjoy the ride. Jasmine has three open trades: 1 EURUSD buy trade and 2 EURUSD sell trades for a floating profit of +104 pips, see attached chart.

Look for our mid month performance report for tomorrow. Cheers.

 

[winsor]

Mid Month Performance Report for Winsor’s Five Automated Trading Systems

October 15, 2010 Update

Below are the trading results of my five expert advisors since May 21, 2010 (five months).

Haley = +779 pips (7.8%) with 313 trades
Jasmine = +6,817 pips (68.2%) with 442 trades
Leah = +4,700 pips (47.0%) with 388 trades
Mellisa = -2,325 pips (-23.3%) with 319 trades
Sienna = -706 pips (-7.1%) with 605 trades

If you haven’t downloaded my software, below is the link again. The installation takes 30 seconds.

http://www.ctsforex.com/trial_install/CTSFOREX_dot_COM.zip
1) Download the zip file onto your desktop
2) Unzip the file and follow the README text file.

Please make a post and vote for “Test Drive Winsor’s 5 Trading Systems” thread.

• If you have made money trading with my five trading systems, make a post and let me know.
• If you have lost money trading with my five trading systems, also make a post and rant at me.
• If this is your first exposure to my five trading systems, make a post and say hi.

 

[winsor]

The Roller Coaster Ride of Forex Trading

October 18, 2010 Update

We haven’t covered Haley automated trading system for a while; hence, let’s talk about it today. Haley started trading with $10,000 on May 21, 2010. It did well in the beginning as it reached $12,000 within two months. Like all mechanical trading systems, it went through a period of drawdown. It dropped from $12,000 to $11,000, to $10,000, and then to $9,500. Most followers would shunt Haley or jumped off its bandwagon due to its $2,500 drawdown. This is the normal fear reaction of the Forex traders; hence, 95% of retail traders are not profitable.

The normal greed reaction of the forex trader is to jump onto a winning system after it has gone through a string of winning trades. It is impossible to time the market or predict the performance of a trading system. It is best to determine your trading objective and stick with your game plan for at least six months. Don’t waver too early and avoid jumping from one trading system to another. Currently, Haley is at $10,755 with $155 floating profit, see attached chart. Give Haley one year and it will hit the $13,500 goal.

 

[winsor]

Jumping off the Band Wagon

October 19, 2010 Update



1) Our maximum stop loss limited our losses to 100 pips else it could have been much worse.

2) This is the reason why we use fixed lot instead of compounding lots. Using compounding lot size, our losses would have been much worse.

3) Risk and reward go together in trading. During the past five months, Jasmine has gained 6,500 pips, and this is its reward. The 680-pip drawdown is part of its risk. It is impossible to have 100% winning trading system without any risks.

4) If you believe in a trading system, you must stick with it for 6 six months. Whenever you are committed to a trading system, it is best to stick with it. Jumping onto a system when it is winning and jumping off a system when it is losing is the norm. This is one of the reasons when 95% of traders failed in forex trading. You must learn to resist this temptation.

5) This is the reason why you should avoid trading a system when it is winning. After a winning streak experienced by Jasmine, it is bound to hit a snag.

6) The best time to enter a trading system is when it is losing or going through a drawdown. Wait for Jasmine to drop another 500 pips to 1,000 pips, and then you enter. This way the system has absorbed some of the losses, and you will have a greater potential on the upswing.

 

[winsor]

Manual Trading vs. Algorithm Trading

October 20, 2010 Update

After a string of losses, most traders would shut down their computers and take a few days off. For great traders, we would brush aside their losses and start anew the next day. Unfortunately, in Forex there is no next day as the market runs 24 hours per day. The best thing about algorithm trading is that the computer does not know that its last 7 trades were unprofitable. It has no fear and will continue to trade the market without quitting or taking a break. It is business as normal and the software continues to monitor the market looking for opportunities. Can you model yourself like software without any emotional attachment or break?

The majority of traders will start doubting themselves and their methods after 7 consecutive trades. Some traders will start going back to their historical charts and begin to modify their methods. It is impossible to fine tune a method that would eliminate all your losses and yet most traders will always search for the Holy Grail after a string of losing trades. In algorithm trading, losses and drawdown are determined and accepted. You cannot have a trading system that is 100% profitable. You can still be profitable with 20% winning system. Have you heard of Angel investors? These are smart people with lots of money. For every ten companies that they invest in: on average six companies would go belly up, two to three companies would break even, and one or two companies would be the big winner. If these are smart and rich people, why can’t they hire the best advisors to ensure that all their investments are 100% winners? The point here is to stop looking for the Holy Grail and start focusing more on your psychology and money management.

There may not be anything wrong with your trading strategy. You have to realize that different trading strategies are required for different market conditions. For instance, in a bullish market, you go with the trend and buy. In a bearish market, you can also go with trend and sell. In a sideway market, you may adopt the fading strategy where you sell when the price is high and buy when the price is low. At times, it is impossible to tell whether it is a bullish market or a sideway market so which strategy do you adopt? This is the reason why I have six subsystems in Jasmine: two for the up trend, two for the down trend and two for the sideway market. For human, it is hard to keep track of different trading strategies at one time but this is extremely easy with a computer.

Presently, Jasmine has jumped back into the EURUSD market with 4 buy trades. It is currently floating with +422 pips, see attached. The take away from this post: 1) losses affect traders but not computers 2) computer does not quit or requires losing break 3) there is no Holy Grail strategy 4) Different strategies are required for different market conditions 5) human can trade with only one strategy while a computer can trade with multiple strategies simultaneously.

 

[winsor]

Have We Upset the Market Gods?

October 22, 2010 Update

It has been a tough week of trading for both Leah & Jasmine systems. Have we upset the market gods? I think so! It is our goal to achieve 35% per year while Jasmine went on a tear and shot past the +7,000 pips (70% ROI). Leah also surpassed the +5,000 (50% ROI) pips and all of these results were done less than five months. As I have eluded in my previous posts, it is impossible to sustain this rapid ascend in the equity curve. Drawdowns are expected; hence, you don’t compound the trading lot size when you winning. Often the greatest victories are followed by the worse defeats; hence, you always plan for the worse. Never declare victory over the market or allow victories to go to you head.

One of the most important elements in Forex trading is not to lose your perspective. Forex trading is challenging and there will be good months and bad months. It is a reason why I have a yearly performance goal instead of the weekly or monthly performance goals. I think of forex trading as a long term investment and not a get rich quick scheme. Be aware that the maximum drawdown for Leah & Jasmine can be as much as 4,000 pips; hence, make sure that you have enough reserve in your account to absorb the super typhoon. This is the reason why the accounts are set up with $10,000. In an event of a super typhoon immediately after turning on the trading systems, Leah & Jasmine accounts can go as low as $6,000. If your starting capital is $3,000, and you are trading with a mini lot (1 pip = $1), you will blow up your account before any chances of a recovery. At the moment, all systems are operating within parameters. Think of this drawdown as an offering to soothe the market gods. Presently, Leah is still bullish on the EURUSD. It has opened six buy trades with a floating profit of +175 pips, see attached chart. As always our maximum stop loss is 100 pips and our maximum take profit is 240 pips.

Let’s see what will come out from the meeting of G20 finance ministers and central bank governors in South Korea this weekend. Have a great week and remember to be humble!

 

[winsor]

Playing with MetaTrader 5 (MT5) Trading Platform

October 25, 2010 Update

I hope that everyone had a great weekend. It is a windy Monday and currently raining in Vancouver. I am glad that I am inside with my fireplace going. A quick update on Jasmine then I am back playing with the MT5 trading platform. I am excited to compare my live trading results vs. the MT5 tester which claims to be more accurate.

Currently, Jasmine has six open trades with +244 pips. Two EURUSD buy trades were opened on Thursday, October 21, at 1.39314 and 1.39308 and the Euro when as high as 1.4080. Subsystems 7 & 8 did not take profit and may have missed their chances to cash in. It is always 20/20 in hindsight, and that is how things work. We don’t expect every trade to be a big winner. Jasmine’s four EURUSD sell trades are opened today October 25, 2010 at 16:00 and 18:00. These sell trades are currently floating with +231 pip profit, see attached chart.

 

[winsor]

Green Thumb in the Garden vs. Green Thumb in Forex Trading

October 26, 2010 Update

If you trade Forex, you must have the same patience and discipline as a gardener. Let’s take your lawn for example, if you want a green and rich lawn you will need to fertilize at least four times a year: early spring, early summer, late summer and fall. Besides that you will need to mow your lawn twice a week and water it every day during the hot summer days. Trading forex has the same care and discipline. You will need to formulate your trading plan, execute it and then follow with your game plan. Let’s take Haley trading system as an example. It started with $10,000 and went up to $12,000 (+2,000 pips profit). A few weeks later, it went down to $11,000, and then down to $9,500. This is a drawdown of $2,500. Most traders would modify their game plan because of the drawdown i.e. adding more filters, making stop loss larger or lowering the take profit. Traders don’t realize that it is impossible to eliminate the losses in trading.

As stated earlier, Haley has a maximum drawdown of $4,000; hence, a loss of $2,500 is within our limit. If you are constantly changing your trading system or strategy, you will not be able to observe the things that are working for you. You must stick to the game plan regarding of the market movement. To have a green thumb in Forex trading, you must stick to your game plan a.k.a. trading strategy. Don’t jump from one strategy to another because the lawn is also greener on the other side. Presently, Haley has four GBPUSD buy trades and one sell trade with +440 pips in floating profit, see attached chart. Let’s see if it can break the $11,000 mark in the next few weeks.

 

[winsor]

Applying Sun Tzu’s the Art of War to Forex Trading

October 29, 2010 Update

In Sun Tzu’s Art of War, he states that it is better to take the high ground and wait for your enemy to come to you. By taking the high ground you have the best odds of winning. In automated trading, logical entry and exit criteria are built in; hence, the software is never responding to the market. The software monitors the market 24 hours per day and waits the price to hit a certain threshold to execute the trade. There are no greed and fear; thus, there is no stress to you. The hardest thing about automated trading is learning to give up control. It is in the art of giving where you will be blessed with more opportunities to make money.

Attached is the snapshot of Jasmine trading system. It is currently at $16,581 (+6,581 pips), a gain of 65% after five months of trading.

 

[winsor]

NFA orders monetary sanction of $320,000 against New York forex firm IKON Global Markets

October 28, Chicago - National Futures Association (NFA) has ordered IKON Global Markets, Inc. (IKON), a forex dealer member to pay a fine of $320,000 as a result of an NFA Complaint issued and a settlement offer submitted by IKON and its principal, Diwakar Jagannath.

The Complaint alleged that IKON engaged in certain price slippage practices on the MetaTrader platform that were favorable to IKON and caused disadvantageous trading conditions for certain customers. The Complaint also charged that IKON failed to supervise the MetaTrader platform used for their forex business, and failed to supervise the firm's operations.

In addition to the fine amount, IKON must provide appropriate refunds to its customers as a result of these asymmetrical slippage practices.

IKON and Jagannath neither admitted nor denied the charges. The complete text of the Complaint and Decision are available on NFA's website (www.nfa.futures.org).