What's your view/opinion on today's market movements?

[RahmanSL]

Hi Liz...family doing good...hope same with yours


....hmmmm....0.9046 tops huh?...hmmmm...you can put a hex on the pair to make it go down much sooner??

Yahhhh, I supposed my account can stand that kind of impact....but given the negative fundamentals in Aussie land....added that with the Aussie government preferences for lower AUD..... I doubt that would happen this week.

Well, the US "Consumer Confidence" index will be coming out in approx 50 minutes from now and if that beats expectation, perhaps that would be an impetus for AUD to take a deeper dive

Thanks for your input and take care

 

[RahmanSL]

Liz,

The US "Consumer Confidence" came in below expectation but, instead of appreciating, the EUR got dragged down while the AUD briefly went down too (which is good for me as I managed to closed quite a numbers of shorts). And at time of posting, the AUD looks like it's going down again.

Does that make sense to you??
I think it's due to high levels in the NASDAQ and US stocks....

 

[ilearn2t]

Hello RahmanSL

I've placed a quote from earlier over at my new "US stock market" thread.

Hello Everyone

The US Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index fell to 78.1 in February from a downwardly revised 79.4 in January, experts did expect the index to edge down to 80.1 from the 80.7 originally reported for the previous month, in the first 30 minutes of the report both EUR/USD & GBP/USD took a shape fall while the AUD/USD holds tight due to the strong Gold hitting a high 1340.55 once again breaking its 16 week high set yesterday.

Current price: 1339.24

Good luck
ilearn2t

The CBCC still remains in territory associated with past recessions, combine the concerns about the possibility of the Chinese property bubble bursting affecting economic growth in China and the world is supporting gold.

Might be pushing the AUD upward.

Good luck
ilearn2t

 

[RahmanSL]

Hi Liz, thank you for that most valuable insight.
Yes, I FORGOT Gold is Australia's 4th largest exports and thus the price of Gold will have a bearing on its currency.

But with iron ore & concentrates, and coal being their top two exports, any downsizing in China's economy will have a very huge impact on the Aussie's economy and, of course, their currency too.
===============================

Today, I am and will still trade exclusively on AUD/USD (but might take a trade or two if other currency pair present opportunity).

I closed a bunch of yesterday's shorts in profits....made some more tidy profit in early Asian session by scalp trading both directions...will probably carry on trading this way for the rest of the trading day.

 

[dkami]

Well, today the AUD/USD did briefly went above 0.904 levels twice so far.....I scalp some short positions and closed them out as they go into profits....but left one short position taken at the 0.90415 level for the ride down to 0.8910 level. If that low level still doesn't materialize by tomorrow, I will close out all shorts on the AUD/USD.

However, given the bad data given in above posts...plus speculations in job cuts by Quantas, and losses in profits by some major Aussie companies... I am still very much perplex as to why the AUD doesn't fall as it's supposed to.

Anybody have any perspective on this or has any theory??

In my view AUD is being supported by gold, gold had double bottom (W1) where as AU made lower low (W1) with bullish divergence

AU does now have bearish hidden divergence on D1 so may make new low going off this but I expect a trap and the W1 bullish divergence to play out and over ride the D1 especially with gold in my view at a critical level being @ W1 resistance now as I speak

If gold closes above my W1 resistance I would expect AU to continue with a deeper pullback!

 

[RahmanSL]

Heyyyyy dkami

Thank you very much for your valuable input too which are very much appreciated.

I do hope the AUD will have a deeper pullback today cause, besides closing out my shorts in profits, I would very much rather have longs on the pair due to positive daily swaps...

And in anticipation of that deep pullback materializing, I have removed some pending long positions at the upper level

 

[dkami]

Heyyyyy dkami

Thank you very much for your valuable input too which are very much appreciated.

I do hope the AUD will have a deeper pullback today cause, besides closing out my shorts in profits, I would very much rather have longs on the pair due to positive daily swaps...

And in anticipation of that deep pullback materializing, I have removed some pending long positions at the upper level

Hi RahmonSL sorry I think you misunderstood my post as the pullback is on W1 so pull back is up(possibly up to 50EMA on W1 which is also 61.8fib as I speak) retrace probably would have been a better word

However with bearish hidden divergence pressure on D1 I still would expect price to @ least come back and test my D1 resistance (now support) @ .8878 that was broken on friday

I will buy AU as close to the low as I can of that break out D1 candle targeting .9300 SL under low (.8659)

 

[RahmanSL]

...ahhhh...I see!

Ok, no problem as long as the pair don't go too much beyond my weekly support and resistance lines.
Just before weekly market opens, I have set my key pivotal lines at 0.89782.... with R1 at 0.90190 and S1 at 0.89447

So anything beyond 0.090190 I go short, and anything below 0.89447 I go long....all others up or down from 0.89782 I scalp trade.
Its been working well so far this week, gaining over 10% of my account size.....and I am tying my best to limit my open trades to avoid the deadly "over trading" syndrome.
Lets see how I survive this week!

 

[ilearn2t]

Hello RahmanSL

Hello RahmanSL

I placed the "Bands" indicator" on my platform using default setting and it show as follow:

Upper band: 0.9046
Middle band: 0.8993
Lower band: 0.8937

Hope your profits are still rolling in, notice the pair is sitting on the "middle band" as I type, coming back from a low of 0.8989 hopefully it will drop to your target of 0.8978 very soon.

The US New Home Sales (15.00 UK) & NZD Trade Balance (21.45 UK) might have a major say in your fortunes.

Good luck
Liz

 

[RahmanSL]

Hi Liz....as usual your inputs are most welcome and give me more insight into how I should trade.Thank you very much!

Yes, today the AUD/USD has been ranging again and I am scalping it both directions and managed to "scraped" just under 9% profits of my total account balance.
Since I am scalp trading straddling the pair, it doesn't really matter which direction its going....BUT I would very much prefer if the pair goes lower so that I can close out the short positions and open some more longs tol land up with more "long" positions for the treble swap rates today

How's your trading?