Williama's Trading System

autofx revised EA

Hi autofx,

I think that I can speak for many when I say that we really appreciate your efforts to get a reliable EA figured out.

In the post I've quoted here, you stated that you seem to have made some improvements. Any chance that you could post that version of the EA?

I've been following this thread since near the beginning, and I too am intrigued by the potential of this system.

Best Regards,

Bogie

"If at first you don't succeed, keep on sucking 'til you do succeed"
- source unknown.


There is a glimmer of hope. I had suspected and finally identified a major math/programming error with determining how many orders are needed to achieve the pip objective.

Once I made the correction, I see that far less margin is being consumed in the backtests, and every grid I've seen so far gets closed for a profit.

You may have noticed how on the screen Buy Goal Profit (in pips) and Sell Goal Profit (in pips) were out of whack. I do believe I solved it.

_______

UPDATE: Even with corrections, I see that strategy can still generate an enormous number of orders, which I find unacceptable. All it takes is for the market to retrace several times within a range.
 
The effort by Autofx (and others) to create a viable EA that can trade according to Williama's principles is admirable, but has anyone noticed the many times Williama interferes with his own rules to enable him to make the profits he does? To remind us of all the intricacies in this methodology that require human intervention to maximize profits, here are some extracts from Williama's own remarks:

Same thing with Lot Size, it is just a money management factor, preference and efficiency; 0.5, 1.0 even up to 1.5 lots depending in market trend (opportunity). When you suspect the market is going to move quickly towards one end for instance, you may want to allocate higher lots but regulate with number of Pending Orders. These are all trading, money and risk management preferences and trading skills.

Most of the times it finishes within a day. Sometimes i might be finished in 3 days. In that case, if the rate nears stoploss, ill again add 100 pips in stoploss and make it 400 pips. Then when it comes in profit i finish the deal. Some times even i close with half profit. First long will finish soon and then further it might increase which will be a loss for the short position. in that case, when the rate gets down, ill close the deal with 15pip loss.

One more thing, I do not necessarily have to place pending orders every time a level is triggered all I need is to have my calculations in place. This means, I keep track of the balance among lot size in each side. I calculate how much will be made when one side is reached. If I see that my other side is short, I place more pending orders in that side to compensate and make profit. If I see there is enough in that side I do not place more pending orders to save free margin. As you can see, I maintain a control real time to make the system efficient.

The secrets of the system is in the calculations and timing of Pending Orders and not the setting alone.

The calculations to be made are not the system but mathematics. All you have to do is to add and subtract your open orders to be able to know what is needed in the opposite side to make profit.


I make sure the opposite side has more Pending Orders placed than the one I am in the current time. I add the pips and find out how much money I am going to make, if I want to make more and I see that I have plenty of free margin (not the actual active margin but the total margin taken when the pending orders are triggered) I place some more pending orders.

At this moment the market is threatening to Trigger Sell Stop 213.00 and most like it will take. Therefore, I made calculations, I look at market, I look at how many lots are at that level and I conclude:

Delete 10 lots from sell stop orders at 213.00 because market looks like is going to reverse back up and therefore it would take aprox. $13.000 off the profit, if it went to the upper target. Let the market go up to see if it goes up to Buy Stop level 1 and then place back the sell stop at 213.00 with the 10 lots. This way you avoid taking profit from you.


This is the kind of analysis I make to maximize profit.

I am going to illustrate something. This is an analysis of the current situation. If I did not do anything and let things go, this is what would happen:
If bottom target is reached I make approximately $20k.
If top target is reached I have a loss of approximately $8k because I have not been placing Pending Orders in that side to see if anyone came back reporting. Therefore, to fix that I can place a Buy Stop at 213.00 with 10 lots. Then if the market went all the way up I make approximately $4.5k.



This is how I control the system. The important point here is that you have to make your calculations to place the necessary pending orders to make it work. Don´t mind a fixed set of rules, those are the basic rules I gave for people to grasp the concept. The most important issue is for you to understand what is going on and that you must have the correct side overcoming the other side by placing pending orders ahead of time always taking into account free margin availability.

Understand that I am not saying that we cannot develop an EA on Williama's principles that can make good profits, but to get the same results as he is getting there HAS to be human intervention.

As a matter of fact I want to come back to my previous concern about the heavy losses made by the very wide StopLoss placements. Why cannot we build into the system either a fixed StopLoss of say two levels or either a trailing StopLoss??? Do you realize how many open positions, and therefore margin, we will save by doing this - not to speak of reduced losses!

After all this I am still looking forward to Autofx improved EA!
 
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So How would 1 level work?

1 buy is triggered so you need 4 sells to compensate.
If 4 sells are triggered you need to add at least 12 more buy orders.
If 13 buy orders are triggered you would need to add 27 sell orders.

It could work, the orders escalate quick, and you would need to decide on a deviation/spacing that keeps you out of the normal price retraces so much.




what if we use 2 levels instead of 3 or even 1 level? is that profitable?

Killer
 
It has taken me a while to see what the strategy really is. I had to really break the EA apart and think about what the strategy is supposed to be exactly, and then how one would implement it. It took a little coding effort to consolidate the lot sizes and then redistribute them so as not to have hundreds of orders that will annoy the broker.

My biggest concern was not opening more orders than necessary to achieve the profit.

I think I figured it out, and I think this will work, though there is still danger of running out of margin.
______
If you use the EAs, I ask for nothing in return. Just please be careful with your settings, especially MaxMarginToUse and the number of pairs you trade on. Never any guarantees, trading is always risky. My main goal from the beginning was to prove that fully automated trading can work, because many have said it cannot.
 
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The effort by Autofx (and others) to create a viable EA that can trade according to Williama's principles is admirable, but has anyone noticed the many times Williama interferes with his own rules to enable him to make the profits he does?

My opinion now is that there is indeed a very fixed and straightforward set of rules for this strategy, with little or no need for human judgment.

The difficulty is in clearly explaining what these rules are.

Every time a pending order is hit and becomes an open trade, we must open new orders on the other side that will ensure profit if market action turns around in that direction.

We want to open only as many orders as needed, no more. And we want to distribute them over the levels of the grid. We don't want to concentrate the orders on one level of the grid, because then the market only has to tap one level to trigger more orders on the other side than we want, and sideways action will snowball our number of orders and our committed margin when those orders become open trades. We want the market to have to move to a new level to make us open new orders, and then when we do open them, we want to open only as many as we need so we don't ultimately commit more margin than necessary to get our profit goal.

Once we work out the math and logic needed implement this to the letter (I think I did so in version 01d), we have what we need. Human intervention should be unnecessary. The only time I'd think of intervening is if margin gets lower than I want. Then I might consider closing a grid. But such situations should be rare if I have selected a reasonable base lot size. The demo that has gone from $100k to over $1M (FxPro Demo Account w/ Login : 109726, Investor : Trapped1) is, as far as I can tell, sticking to a simple set of rules.
 
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what if we use 2 levels instead of 3 or even 1 level? is that profitable?

Killer

I think it can be but with fewer levels, the market has to move less to get your orders triggered and get you to commit more margin. The upside is that you can get to profit goals faster.
 
i understand the idea of opening multiple trades and setting the buy/sell stops on them. What I'm trying to get my head around is how do the trades turn a profit if they are closing as soon as they hit the buy/sell stop price?

You get profit because of a profitable imbalance of trades.

If the market has wiggled around inside of the trapper grid, triggering open trades and new orders, then the market finally goes strongly in one direction, you will have more trades in the direction the market goes, and their gains will outweigh the losers. The losers stop out and the winners hit their limit/takeprofit. You might have a -75 pip loss but a +105 pip gain when all of the stops and limits are hit. So the net would be +30 pips.
 
autofx, can you please check the TP on the sell side of orders please? Here is an example of the GBPJPY trades and their TP...

BUY SIDE: open price: 190.79, TP: 191.09 , PIPS = 30
SELL SIDE: open price: 190.40, TP: 190.19 , PIPS = 21

GBPJPY spread on IBFX = 9 pips, 21+9 = 30, I think you are missing the spread on the sell orders. Can you please take a look at this and correct it? thanks for the EA :)

Killer
 
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