How to trade the FPA’s Forex Daily Trading Signals
Certain questions about how to interpret and trade the Daily Trading Signals come up over and over again in FPA’s forums. I’ve answered a lot of these at various times, but never put all the questions and answers in one place before.
News trading can make or lose a lot of money very quickly. If you don’t understand the terminology, you will be much more likely to lose.
First, you must understand the terms deviation, revision, and trigger.
For most news announcements, there is an expected number. This expectation is the average taken from a number of expert news analysts. The amount the actual number released differs from the expected number is called the deviation. If most of the experts agree on a very narrow range, then the pre-news market action usually won’t be as volatile, and reaction to a large deviation should be greater. If expert estimates are all over the place, then the market can get very jittery before the news comes out and reaction to the news can be much less predictable.
A revision is a recalculation of the previously released number. The monthly released number for employment, unemployment, consumer confidence, etc., is usually just a very good estimate. The next month, whatever group or agency released the data will update (revise) the prior number, usually at the same time they release the new one. Obviously, some numbers (like an Interest Rate Statement) are not subject to revision.
Large revisions can have very strange effects on the market. For example, if a country’s employment numbers were up by 20,000 last month and are up by 40,000 this month, that would show not only new employment, but solid growth in employment – this is usually good for a nation’s currency. If last month’s number is revised from 20,000 to 25,000, that would probably be considered even better. On the other hand, if last month’s number is revised down to 1000, traders could interpret this month’s numbers as so much better, or could lose confidence in the accuracy of this month’s numbers. If last month’s number was revised upward to 60,000, this would mean that more people are working (good!), but that this month’s numbers are actually a decline in the rate of job creation (bad!) and that the current release isn’t very trustworthy (confusing!). This at least partially explains some of the wild price swings when there is a large revision in the previous release.
Placing a trade is also called “pulling the trigger.” A news trigger is the minimum amount of deviation to make it worth placing a news trade. For example, the Daily Signals might say this month’s Canadian Beer Exports are expected at 3.2 million cases, and that there’s a 0.5 trigger. This means that a deviation of greater than 0.5 or less that negative 0.5 means you should place a trade. More directly, buy the CAD if production is 3.7 million cases or more, and sell the CAD if the number comes out at 2.7 million cases or less. The Daily Signals will tell you if you should be trading the USDCAD, AUDCAD, or some other pair for this specific report. (Disclaimer for the humor impaired – there is no monthly Canadian Beer Export report, but there should be!).
Depending on the currency pair, you might need to reverse the direction of your trade. For example, if there is a strong positive deviation in the quarterly Wool Production Report out of New Zealand (yes, this one is also a report I made up), you would expect the NZD to gain value when the report is released. This would mean buying the NZDUSD (or other NZDxxx pairs) or selling the AUDNZD (or other xxxNZD pairs). Similarly, reports that are good news for the USD mean to buy USDxxx or sell xxxUSD.
Just to really mess things up more, there are often multiple reports released at the same time. Usually, news traders will focus on only one report, but if other reports affecting the currency come out the other way, then price action can be unexpected. For example, one of the “Big 3” reports every month is US Core Retail Sales (also called Retail Sales ex-Auto). Since car sales are quite variable, it is simply the estimated amount of retail sales for the month excluding automobile sales. If the total Retail Sales deviates strongly in the opposite direction as Core Retail Sales, this can make price movement less predictable. The Retail Sales Report (which includes cars) is called the Headline Report, since it will be the one that newspapers (but not forex traders) will focus on.
There are many ways to place trades around news time. I will describe three of the most common, each based on a different time to place the trade:
Placing pending orders each way is called a straddle. People who do this usually place the pending orders about 3-5 minutes before the news is released. Stops and targets will vary quite a bit depending on the nature of the news report. The advantage of a straddle is that if there is solid movement in one direction, only one order triggers and (if the movement is far enough) your order closes with a nice profit. The risk of a straddle is that widening spreads and erratic price action can stop out in both orders.
You can try to get the news information and place a trade before most of the market has a chance to react. This is called spike trading. To do this, you need a fast internet connection, a way to get the news very quickly, and (if possible) a way to automatically place the trade depending on if the news deviation is big enough and in what direction the deviation is. There are companies you can buy news feeds from, like Reuters and Bloomberg. There are several autoclicker software packages out there that can be used to partially or fully automate placing the trades.
The third common way to trade the news is to wait for the initial spike to happen, then try to catch price movement back towards the pre-news price (price action back towards the pre-news price is called retrace). Learning to trade the retrace is something you can do by watching and demo trading (do NOT trade real money while learning to do this) over a period of time.
Other news trading questions I’ve seen from time to time:
What time zone are the Daily Trading Signals based on?
All Daily Signals trades by Crazy Cat are in US Eastern Time – New York Time. I personally find this convenient, since Florida is in the same time zone.
Where do the released news numbers come from?
Most of the numbers come from some government agency in the country that the news release is from. Some come from private groups.
What does m/m, q/q, and y/y mean?
Those are short for month to month, quarter to quarter, and year to year. Or, to put it more simply, these would mean monthly, quarterly, and yearly reports.
Why can’t the Daily Signals give entry price, target, and stoploss for news trades?
The Daily Trading Signals are issued many hours before the news comes out, so there’s no way to know what the price will be when the time comes to enter. Targets from entries are given if the trigger number is reached or exceeded and you can get in before the spike. Stoploss would be hard to give, since different brokers widen their spreads by different amounts. 25 pips might work great for one broker, but will get taken out by wider spreads at another.
What are basis points?
Interest rate changes can be described as fractions of a percent or as basis points. A 1/4% (or 0.25%) change can also be called a 25 basis points change.
Where can I see a list of news reports?
Every page in the FPA website has a top menu. Just click where it says Calendar. Currently, the calendar here is one of the fastest free calendars available, but it’s still not quite fast enough to do spike trading.
Remember, if you are just learning to trade the news, start with demo trading just to familiarize yourself with market reactions to news events. When you move to live trading, remember that slippage and requotes will be MUCH worse than demo trading, so only risk the smallest amounts of money at first. Please read my article about Risk Management if you have any questions about this. Also, if you don’t understand a particular trading signal, don’t trade it with real money. It’s much better to risk missing out on some profit than to risk throwing away your money on a misunderstanding.
I’d like to thank both Crazy Cat and Snow Man for their excellent suggestions and input on this article.
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In addition to investigating scams, Pharaoh has written a number of articles on a wide rage of trading topics, including forex broker selection, risk management, and how to select a good account manager. He's also covered other items of interest to traders, such as protecting wealth and purchasing precious metals.
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I will be short. Thanks for a great article. Please could you explain additionally also following:
1) sometimes Sir Pips (or previously Felix) mentions that we should be aware of the commentary (e.g. for BoE interest rate decision on December 06 2007). Where can we get this commentary on time, i.e. more or less immediately. I am a "Secret news weapon" user (a very satisfied one) , but snw makes me enter a trade, yet if I have to look after a commentary once I am in the trade, I need to look obviously for other resources. Is it bloomberg tv, or bloomberg.com, or BoE web site in this example?
2) Could you explain the terms hawkish & dovish
Thank you very much for your article, I hope you will have time to answer this additional questions, as I am sure they are of interest to all traders.
Best regards and congratulations on your current work.
Thanks Pharoh... nice job in summing up some of the basic concepts here. I'll probably find myself linking people to this article as it covers a lot of good foundation material. Let me know if you're in NY sometime and I'll buy you a drink.
Great job! Thank you for this very, to the point, article. I will be placing links back to this also.
> Oh good. An instant answer for people who email questions about the trading signals.
Special note to our Nigerian soldiers - The FPA has been talking with the payments offices of both SNW and ..
thanks that will be terryfic, we are longging forward to it.:D
Many thanks for the explanation but any chance of a few more details. Often, during the commentary Sir Pips will talk about approaching levels of resistance or support. What support is Sir referring to? Is it pivot points? psychological? previous highs/lows? or all of the above?
Sir will also talk about buying and selling levels that influence the price action. Presumably these levels are set by the big boys . How does Sir know where these levels are or is it just that he is is reading the price action.
Happily, I managed to interrogate both Crazy Cat and Sir Pips to make sure I could provide semi-decent answers.
> 1) sometimes Sir Pips (or previously Felix) mentions that we should be aware of the commentary (e.g. for BoE interest rate decision on December 06 2007). Where can we get this commentary on time, i.e...
Some of these statements can be found on the websites of the organizations releasing the commentaries. I personally sometimes have suffered through a Bernake speech live on CNBC. Sir Pipsalot subscribes to a number of rather expensive news services that carry the speeches live and also provide quick access to written copies of commentaries, as well as analysis of the commentaries (commentaries on commentaries).
> 2) Could you explain the terms hawkish & dovish
Hawkish - aggressively supporting a currency's value. Statements like "We are definitely increasing interest rates soon." would be hawkish.
Dovish - indications of weakness in a currency. Statements like "We expect a massive drop in both exports and industrial productivity during the next 3 quarters, so we may have to cut interest rates further to prevent a total economic collapse." would be dovish.
Do note that Crazy Cat warns that trading speeches and statements is NOT an activity for beginners and says that he personally doesn't trade them. Personally, I'd never trade one unless I had someone with far greater expertise making the trading calls.
> Many thanks for the explanation but any chance of a few more details. Often, during the commentary Sir Pips will talk about approaching levels of resistance or support. What support is Sir referring t..
Sir Pips gets support and resistance as well as buying and selling levels from looking at higher time frame charts for trendlines, fibonacci numbers, moving averages, as well as previous highs and lows. Additionally, pivots come into play. Also, quite a bit comes from experience.
I am hoping someone out there in news trading land might have a good calendar or list of the "better trades" that typically move 30 pips + on a consistent basis. I am looking more for the spike trades (within seconds-5 min max) not so much the ones that take time. If anyone out that has traded news for a while has a list it would be greatly appreciated! ;)
most off time i hear you use words like sllipage , and been stoped out can you please explian this terms also
I foresee a glossary in my future. :D
Slippage - You place (or close) an order at a certain price. Your broker fills your order at a worse price (the price "slips") and blames it on fast moving market conditions. Some brokers do this and only hit you for a few pips. Others will burn you for 20, 30, or even more.
Stopped out - Your order has a stop loss. This is a price you preset as the maximum amount you are willing to lose before your order closes automatically. During the news, prices can move up and down quickly, and hit your stop loss (thus "stopping you out") before moving in what would have been a profitable direction. Of course, you might experience slippage as you are stopped out, thus costing you even more money.
thanks for the reply its eye opening. I have always been expriencing situations in which i enter a trade and the trade gestin my direction and my account will not record any profit. that means they must have been filling me at a wrong price. wells thanks agian . but what can i do to stop this
Thanks Pharaoh for your answers. And kudos to you and other SFS members and FPA officers (Felix, Sir Pips and Crazy Cat especially) for paving the best and most generous way of introducing forex trading to common people. I wish you all the good fortune in your lives.
To Galore: Although I cannot see what you need this list for, since Sir Pipsalot and Crazy Cat deliver this in "real time" through daily signals for free, I extracted most if not all of these for you:
USD ADP Nonfarm Employment Change
USD Change in NonFarm Payrolls
GBP CPI y/y
USD CPI core m/m
CAD Employment Change
CAD GDP (m/m)
EUR GE IFO Business Climate (M/M)
EUR GE Retail Sales
EUR GE ZEW Survey Econ Sent (M/M)
GBP Industrial Production (M/M)
USD Initial Jobless Claims
USD ISM Non-Manuf Composite
GBP Nationwide House Prices SA (m/m)
USD New homes sales (total M/M)
USD Philidelphia Fed
USD Retail Sales - Core (M/M)
CAD Retail Sales (M/M)
GBP Retail Sales m/m
GBP Services PMI
USD US Durable Goods - core (M/M)
> thanks for the reply its eye opening. I have always been expriencing situations in which i enter a trade and the trade gestin my direction and my account will not record any profit. that means they mu..
Sometimes it's hard to get filled during the news. Some brokers widen the spreads to 20, 30, 40, or even more pips, so if you get filled, you start out with a high negative. Some brokers will flat-out cheat you by delaying fills for 5-10 seconds and giving you the worst price. If you really want to news trade, and your current broker isn't working, it's time to consider adding a new broker for your news trades or even changing brokers completely.
yes you are right account was still negative i enterd a trade and the negative was so high that even when the trde was 15pips to my advantage my account was still negative . currently trade with euroorient-fxpro , which broker do you recomend that is good for trading the news . cuz i found out most of the good ones ask for at least $2000 to open an account and i need something lesser than that
Thanks Hilarious....I just wanted a list because I have traded some that are duds. I am just trying to get a good list because crazycats info comes out very late at night where I live and I wanted to be more prepared in advance. I am fairly new to news trading so forgive me. I just thought someone might have a good list with typical movement to expect. But again thanks for your help!!
Millions of thanks to Sir Pips and colleagues for their relentless efforts in assisting traders in various aspects like terms used before and during trade hour.this is to make traders like me understands better.i am urging Sir Pips and colleagues to continue their good job.you guys are GREAT!!!!!!!!!
Sometimes a news event that's a major hot item will "cool off" for awhile. Sometimes, what were minor items will increase in significance over time. It depends on what investors are looking at. US Housing Starts have a whole different aspect to them now that the mortgage meltdown has occurred. Once the housing and mortgage markets return to something resembling normalcy, the relative values of those reports will change from where they are now.
If you really want to trade the news, keep a log about how well deviations of certain reports move the markets. This should prove helpful in seeing which reports are gaining and losing strength over time.
My question is, how one can find out the deviation between experts' opinions? This data is not presented in the Calendar.
Keep up the good work folks!
I'm glad you liked it.
Personally, I often watch CNBC and they will sometimes discuss how wide or narrow the range of expert opinions is for major news releases. Also, sometimes there's a mention of this in the Daily Trading Signals.
Beyond that, if you really want to dig for data, there are quite a few websites that do analysis (and sometimes over-analysis) of upcoming news announcements. You don't even have to stick to forex sites, since these kind of announcements also have effects on other markets.
This is my first ever post and i would love to ask Sir Pips how long does he advise we hold a position after a news report because i have been trading live for about a month and a half and i have discovered that it's quite challenging taking your profit or entering your trade.
In the Forex Diamonds room, Sir Pips often calls trades to be placed once the news volatility settles down. These can run anywhere from an hour to a week.
Mr. Felix, I like your write up on how to trade the FPA trading signals. I'm a new member and i've been looking for where the trading signals are on this site. I will appreciate your anticipated favour. Folajimi
Assuming your account had more than $55 or $60 dollars in it when you placed the trade, if your are down to $50 because of a single trade, you aren't exercising proper risk management.
Please read this article:
It explains about how to control risk and set your position size so that 1 or 2 (or 10) bad trades won't wipe you out.
Certain questions about how to interpret and trade the Daily Trading Signals come up over and over again in FPA's forums. I've answered a lot o..
:)Thank you very much for this wonderful info.More Power!:D
> advices were really helpful because it gives you ideas on what to do but it doesn't give you assurance that you will succeed. still, everything depends on you. experience is still the best teacher.
What you need in FOREX is simply Knowledge. The more knowledge you have, the better your chances of making money. Do not be deceived by any body giving you any short cut to making it in FOREX. They can only reduce your learning curve the ones that are honest, so you still have to read.
Cultivate the habit of reading and before long, if you keep on updating your trading arsenals, you will be making TONS OF MONEY BELIEVE ME.
Stay blessed and God Bless You real good.
Hi,I am new to FPA.I only registered yesterday.I am yet to receive any signal but I want to know if FPA sends entry points,stopp loss and take profit.then how reliable are the signals.could give me an example of the signals?
Examples of the signals are in the Forex Daily Trading Signals folder.
what is hawkish or dovish?
The whole glossary is available here:
I am almost clear about Revision and Trigger but didn't understand the Deviation..It would be helpful for me if you elaborate the term Deviation...
Thanks for sharing the information...
News releases generally have expected numbers. These expectations can be fairly firm, or can be widely varied. Deviation is the amount of difference from expectations. If expecations are reasonably firm, and deviation is wide, then that makes a significant deviation a major surprise to the market. If that happens, price action can get . . . interesting.
how can i get the pass for the free signal
i am really new in forex. Just want to know the best time frame to be use for all those signals provided..
If you want to trade the news, you'll need to set your chart to the shortest possible time frame. MT4 includes the ability to watch ticks - it's in the same window that lists all the available pairs (Market Watch - select the symbol, then click tick chart).
Whatever the trading process but I want to suggest that should in the form of charts that will be easy to understand for the other traders. For this process you can use excel via Meta Trader 4 and can create strategies and graphs easily. It will help you in forex trading and drive you to the success.
best regards and thank you very much:)
I can't tell you exactly where to set your TP and SL. That will depend on how big of a move the news event is likely to produce as well as what your broker does to spreads around news time. Practice this on a demo account until you can make it work. When and if you feel ready to try it live, trade the smallest amount possible. Live trades are much more likely to experience slippage than demo trades.
Be aware that some brokers will come back later and decide that this strategy is somehow "illegal" or against their rules. If you get your first successful live trade using this strategy, try to make a withdrawal the next day, even if only for a modest amount. If a broker is going to try to cancel profitable trades, withdrawal time is when they are most likely do it. It's better to find out if they plan to do this after only 1 or 2 trades than to find out after trading for months.
this is a great condensed lessons from you guys ,excellent job ,i believe i become a news traders ...Thanks a lot
Thanks for the advice, it really helps me allot. This thread really did shed some light in fundamental analysis. I just found out here what actually the sharp shot in price after news is called and how to avoid it. The “spike”, was actually what my so call instructors told me to find. But now I now, it is what actually to see then retrace...thanks FPA officers!!!
I'm new at trading and just started a 3 month ago on a real account. I lost almost all of the capital, because some small time FX education center failed to give me adequate knowledge/education on FX trading. The catch line is a week of training, and get rich quick! Well all they do in a week is give us lesson using a out of platform PIVOT calculator, which actual they named literally the software, “the get rich software” Now I’m on a demo learning step by step, can anyone help me on FX...I need a "mentor"..
Does anyone have an ebook, simple signals, on fundamental and technical analysis to "jump start" me in the process...?
Hi, The broker I currently use for trading news has changed their policy, one of the pending orders I placed before the time to non farm and other news opened after 90pips move. Which broker can I use for trading news or which broker do you use. So that i will not experience this agian
Start by reading all the free stuff here at the FPA and a some other forums. If you want a hardcopy of something that explains the basics, both Currency Trading For Dummies or The Complete Idiot's Guide to Foreign Currency Trading are available from Amazon and other book dealers.
This should help:
Thank You for your advice PHAROH. Yes, I know just a bit a FX trading and I’m going to get that book. To be specific I actually need a simple trading system...when to open position and when to close and what conditions....What is the simplest most accurate analysis for recruits?
Read this article:
What it says about finding the right product to fit your trading style also applies to free and self-developed strategies.
Once you have a better idea of what would suit you, ask in the General Forex Talk folder and there will probably be some helpful ideas.
Hello.I enter this forum every day,the strategy to trade the News is very good.
Can you explain as follow:
1---For example,With this Australia Employment Report, there are generally two waves that you could ride and make money with.The second wave is when the currency reaches its initial top or bottom price.
If Crazy Cat said AUD/USD moved up by around 70 pips if hit trigger.
Is it said that price moved up exceed 70pips in the first wave,then retrace,and then moved up higher?or price didn't move up exceed 70pips,then retrace,and then move up to 70 pips from the pre-release price ?
2---For example,In the case of UK Services PMI, I recommend waiting for around a 50% retracement.If Crazy Cat said GBPUSD moved up by around 70 pips if hit trigger.
Is it said that price don't moved up exceed 70pips ,then retrace 50%,and then move up again ,at that time we enter?or price moved up exceed 70pips ,then retrace 50%,and then move up again ,at that time we enter?
My English is very poor.
Anyways, if you look carefully again at the signals emails you'll see that Felix says 'in the first 45 minutes.'
If you look here (youtu.be/tl062Va9dx0) and here (
) you'll see what's meant by a first spike and such.
That said, don't think that this means you'll make money every time, or even on average make money doing it.
I tried as hard as I could to show all the things I think of 'out loud' when I trade news, and I'm pretty good out of experience at saying what I'm thinking quickly, so hopefully it'll help you know what should happen inside your head while you trade news.
Your signals are upto the mark. Today's US NFP report made me make 40 pips in 2 difference currencies pair. I am following your economic calender updates and I have bookmarked the same.
I've been here browsing and reading since this morning at 10am and its now 2 am the next day, and i still dont understand how someone can use the news calendar and the currency meter for a trade:embarrassed:
Is there a guide somewhere here or a website that explains it?
You are doing a great help for new traders here.
How can I get an autoclicker software?
Can u point me to a site or good place to get it?
Thanks in advance...
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