FOREX PRO Weekly September 12-16, 2011

[MidnightRun]

And daily B&B sell is the 1.3880 area (just double-checking to make sure that I got it right)?
Thank you

 

[Sive Morten]

And daily B&B sell is the 1.3880 area (just double-checking to make sure that I got it right)?
Thank you

Hi MidnightRun,
there is no some definite level. Major condition - strong resistance during 1-3 days after penetration of 3x3. IT could be 0.382 or 0.5.
Usually it works at follows: market at level - drop time frame, search for sell signals. If no signals - wait for next strong resistance etc.

 

[Damian1987]

Personally I'm waiting for price to reach K-area around 1,3800, then wait for a shallow retracement .382 in order to enter short due to the daily BB context. Anyways tha day is over for me, I'll see tomorrow what happened during the night. Maybe there's no more K-area anymore, lol.

I attach my 1-hour chart.

 

[Sive Morten]

EUR/USD Daily Update, Fri, September 16, 2011

Good morning,
so, market has reached the first resitance - 0.382 on daily. So, there will not be DRPO, only B&B "Sell". Still, we can't exclude that market could move a bit higher to 0.5 at 1.4025 and start B&B from there. Theoretically this is still possible.

So, our task is to define, what to watch for to understand - will market continue to 1.4025 or not.

On 4 hour chart we see that market has hit 1.618 target and resistance, that includes pivot+confluence resistance. Also we see upper border of former parallel channel.

our focus today on hourly chart. Here we see two possible scenarios. First - Butterfly "Sell" that has 1.618 extension target at 1.4008 - very close to 0.5 resistance at daily. If market will take 1.3940 area then we will have to sit on our hands and wait till 1.40-1.4025. THis is also daily OVerbought btw.

Second scenario -downward breakout and starting B&B right from current level. For that purpose we need cancelling of Butterfly, i.e. taking out 1.3825 level. By this move market will also return back to channel. This will be bearish sign. In this case B&B probably will start right from here.
If this will be the case, the minimum target is 1.3665.

I also can offer you compromise - enter short here with small position and stop above 1.4025. If market will reach 0.5 resistance add more. If not - you will still make a profit, but not too impressive, right? This approach does not give you perfect risk/reward, since here it is approx. around 1.0. But you will be 100% in trade.
So decision is up to you. I just give you all possible ways...

 

[INVESTOR]

Thank you Sir

As always Sive, Awesome work... Thanks a bunch...!!!

 

[pragmatic]

Personally I'm waiting for price to reach K-area around 1,3800, then wait for a shallow retracement .382 in order to enter short due to the daily BB context. Anyways tha day is over for me, I'll see tomorrow what happened during the night. Maybe there's no more K-area anymore, lol.

I attach my 1-hour chart.

Hi Damian!
If you do not mind, can you tell me what software do you use for charting and where do you get the DiNapoli package from?
Good trading!

 

[yousuf]

hi

hey sive, market has taken out 1.3825 level and falling down, have you developed a bearish position?

also could u quickly tell me what is a bread and butter trade setup?

thanks sive,

Yousuf.

 

[nicolebobbin]

Now price has returned back into channel, according to Sive minimum target is 1.3660, we can enter short sell at the moment

 

[Sive Morten]

hey sive, market has taken out 1.3825 level and falling down, have you developed a bearish position?

also could u quickly tell me what is a bread and butter trade setup?

thanks sive,

Yousuf.

Hi Yousuf,
I'm using compromise approach (small lot) and have short yesterday at ~1.3880. Now my stop at b/e.
Concerning about B&B setup - it's too much write here. I suggest you to view the video for today or yesterday - I've given detail explanation there, or read about it in the DiNapoli book.

 

[georgeta]

Hi Yousuf,
I'm using compromise approach (small lot) and have short yesterday at ~1.3880. Now my stop at b/e.
Concerning about B&B setup - it's too much write here. I suggest you to view the video for today or yesterday - I've given detail explanation there, or read about it in the DiNapoli book.

Hello Mr. Morten!
I am curios if your context for short position at 13880 was W&R. I shorted too at 61.8 retracement, but later I was not sure if it really was a W&R.
Thank you!