FOREX PRO Weekly September 26-30, 2011

[Brent Seymour]

Sive, I am still new to this but cannot express enough gratitude for your posts. They are interesting and I feel so much more confident in looking at the market by having them at my side. Thank you so much!

 

[yousuf]

hey sive.

Hey sive, hope your well, i have included, screen shots of four hour chart, with a bearish hidden divergence on the 4 hour chart, and the price is just finding support at the 25x5 MA. The trend has turned bearish.

However, i have also included the daily chart, which shows that the trend is bullish and also there is a possibility for DRPO "Sell" Look-alike.

Im thinking of shorting at the break of 25x5 MA on the 4 hour chart.

 

[Sive Morten]

EUR/USD Daily Update, Thu 29, September 2011

Good morning,
yesterday market has not quite accomplished as bullish as bearish scenario. IT has shown fake out but not quite reached 1.3708 area and later it has moved lower but not reached 1.3470 Fib support.

So, if you're bullish - your scenario remains intact. To buy right from here is unsafe, since 1.3708 is daily K-resistance area, pivot resistance. It's better to wait pullback right to 1.3470 hourly agreement with potential AB-CD pattern that is developing on hourly time frame.
If market will reach this level - drop your time frame and wait for clear patterns.

If you're bearish, then it's a bit easier situation, since you have solid protection right above 1.3708. Market has no momentum currently, hence it will respect to the downside this strong resistance, at least at first touch. This will allow you to exit with miminum loss if you will appear to be wrong.
Also market is showing hidden bearish divergence on 4-hour time frame (how Yousuf has posted), trend is bearish also - there are more chances to succeed on the short side of the market. Also there was still a failed breakout of the wedge. Probably market could show deeper move inside in the wedge body. NEarest target is Agreement at 1.3470

 

[Sive Morten]

Hi Sive and thank you for your daily analysis.

On daily chart we have a potential close above the 3x3 DMA. Can we treat this as DRPO "buy" LAL? (or the first penetration was too deep? And/or the difference between bottoms is too big?).

Thank you in advance

Hi Papao,
probably it is safer to not treat it like DRPO at all, because thrust at minimum required bars, consolidation is too large between the bottoms, copmare to thrust and during first penetration market has reached significant resistance level. Even we will take in consideration that market has created the new low on second bottom - still this is poor DRPO, even LAL.

Hi Sive,

I'm not so sure but for me, we have a probability of B&B sell on daily timeframe.

Thanks and Best Regards.

Rashidin,
B&B on daily we has traded already. May be you treat the second penetration of 3x3 as another B&B... This is not the case, before each B&B should be thrust. IF we've traded it already - there could not appear 2 B&B in a row with the same thrust.

Hey sive, hope your well, i have included, screen shots of four hour chart, with a bearish hidden divergence on the 4 hour chart, and the price is just finding support at the 25x5 MA. The trend has turned bearish.

However, i have also included the daily chart, which shows that the trend is bullish and also there is a possibility for DRPO "Sell" Look-alike.

Im thinking of shorting at the break of 25x5 MA on the 4 hour chart.

Hi Yousuf,
I agree with hidden divergence on 4-hour chart, but may be you're talking about DRPO "failure" pattern and not about DRPO "Sell", because I do not see any DRPO "Sell".
Anyway to treat it as DRPO is not correct to my mind - look my post a bit higher.

 

[papao]

Hi Papao,
probably it is safer to not treat it like DRPO at all, because thrust at minimum required bars, consolidation is too large between the bottoms, copmare to thrust and during first penetration market has reached significant resistance level. Even we will take in consideration that market has created the new low on second bottom - still this is poor DRPO, even LAL.

thank you sive, now it's clear (as usual )

 

[Sive Morten]

EUR/USD Daily Update, Fri 30, September 2011

Good morning,
on daily time frame market has not shown anything really new. Market stands in tight range, shows indecision condition, right at upper border of the wedge.

But one thing is still curious a bit - why market has not quite reached daily K-area and pivot resistance, as well as intraday 1.618 target. What has stopped it? THis is not quite common, when market stops below some strong level and does not even touch it...

One of the reasons could be a Broadening Top pattern, that is forming on 4-hour time frame. And in general, this pattern is reversal one. The failure point highest high of this pattern (see our FM School for details).
The important detail though, is that market has not reached the up border yesterday but stopped and reversed to the downside - this is a bearish sign.
Very probable that market will reach 1.3480 Fib support level today. What will be after that - it's difficult to predict, since news change market sentiment almost each day, market has no momentum, so we can't exclude, for instance, possibility to upward acceleration, who knows.

There is one thing still to watch, that probably could give us some clue to possible upward breakout. In fact, market could show some accelelration as a respect to 1.3480 support, but if it will turn to downside somewhere in the middle of this broadening top pattern - it will be a bearish sign.

 

[craig bryan]

intraday

Morning Sive

BTW Nice work, I like your interpretation of joe's systems
Thought I might obtain your opinion of my chart (if you have time)

as I found the pivots were a tad lower than yours I'm more than a little curious as to your starting positions

Kind regards
Craig

PS: Keep up the good work.....there are a lot of sharks in this pool & very few lifeguards

 

[Triantus Shango]

Fib retracements

Sive

I have a question re the starting points of your fib retracements on the daily chart. The larger retracements on your chart starts around the 4277candle. Why not choose the top candle that began the bearish move for the retracement starting point--that is, around the 4500 level?

 

[Sive Morten]

Morning Sive

BTW Nice work, I like your interpretation of joe's systems
Thought I might obtain your opinion of my chart (if you have time)

as I found the pivots were a tad lower than yours I'm more than a little curious as to your starting positions

Kind regards
Craig

PS: Keep up the good work.....there are a lot of sharks in this pool & very few lifeguards

Hi Craig,
On my daily chart there are a weekly pivots. So, if on your chart there are also weekly pivots, then the difference could come from two points:
1. I use futures contracts, so quotes are slightly lower compare to spot forex;
2. You use not quite classical pivot calculation. For my formulas - look the glossary.

Sive

I have a question re the starting points of your fib retracements on the daily chart. The larger retracements on your chart starts around the 4277candle. Why not choose the top candle that began the bearish move for the retracement starting point--that is, around the 4500 level?

Hi Triantus,
you speak about major reaction and retracement levels. They are extremely important and of cause valid. The reason, why I havn't shown them on the chart is because even major 0.382 is higher than confluence resistance. Since market has not even broken that level, next level is not crucial yet currently.
And to keep chart as clear as possible.

 

[Iktinos]

ask

Hi Sive!
the your signals!
it is very well, you are in some Forex company?

Iktinos