AceTraderFx: DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major - USD/JPY

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AceTraderFx Nov 12: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time:12 Nov 2021 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 114.03
The greenback's rally on Wednesday to 114.01 on upbeat U.S. inflation data together with rising U.S. Treasury yields and intra-day break above there confirms correction from October's 3-year peak at 114.69 has ended at 112.73 on Tuesday and consolidation with upside bias remains for gain to 114.44/50, then bring re-test of said top.

On the downside, only below 113.66 would dampen daily bullishness and risk stronger retracement to 113.40/50.

Data to be released later:
Swiss producer/import price, EU industrial production, U.S. University of Michigan sentiment and JOLTUS Job openings.

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AceTraderFx Nov 15: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time:15 Nov 2021 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 113.90
The greenback's rally on Wednesday to 114.30 on Friday due to upbeat U.S. inflation data together with rising U.S. Treasury yields and intra-day break above there confirms correction from October's 3-year peak at 114.69 has ended at 112.73 on Tuesday and consolidation with upside bias remains for gain to 114.44/50, then bring re-test of said top.

On the downside, only below 113.66 would dampen daily bullishness and risk stronger retracement to 113.40/50.

The only U.S. eco. data due out is New York Fed manufacturing (market is keenly awaiting Tuesday's retail sales), traders will take cue from intra-day move in US 10-year yield after early rally from last Tuesday's 6-week low at 1.415% to 1.592% on Wednesday (circa 1.5545%).

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AceTraderFx Nov 16: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time:16 Nov 2021 09:30GMT


USD/JPY - 114.17
The greenback's intra-day 1-tick break of last Friday's high at 114.30 suggests corrective upmove from last Tuesday's bottom at 112.73 would head to 114.50/60 after consolidation, however, loss of momentum would keep price below October's 3-year peak at 114.69 this week and yield a much-needed retreat later.

On the downside, only below 113.70/75 would indicate a temporary top has been made and risk stronger retracement of aforesaid move towards 113.66, then 113.26/31.

U.S. will release a slew of eco. data & today's retail sales is the most important indicator for the week.
Street forecast for October m/m retail sales to come in at 1.2% vs prev. reading of 0.7%, a stronger-than-expected number would push US yields higher as well as the greenback.

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AceTraderFx Nov 17: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time:17 Nov 2021 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 114.82
The greenback's intra-day 1-tick break of last Friday's high at 114.30 suggests corrective upmove from last Tuesday's bottom at 112.73 would head to 114.50/60 after consolidation, however, loss of momentum would keep price below October's 3-year peak at 114.69 this week and yield a much-needed retreat later.

On the downside, only below 113.70/75 would indicate a temporary top has been made and risk stronger retracement of aforesaid move towards 113.66, then 113.26/31.

After Tuesday's key U.S. retail sales, U.S. will later release 2nd-tier MBA mortgage applications, building permits n housing starts. However, we have a large number of Fed officials scheduled to speak in New York session, please refer to our EI page for details.

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AceTraderFx Nov 18: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time:18 Nov 2021 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 114.10
Although dollar's strong retreat from Wednesday's fresh 3-year peak at 114.97 to 113.94 (New York), then 113.89 today suggests recent uptrend has made a temporary top and range trading is in store, reckon 113.76 would contain weakness and bring rebound but above 114.97 needed to extend gain to 115.30/35.

Only a daily close below 113.76 risks stronger retracement to 113.00/10 before prospect of another rise next week.

Data to be released on Thursday:
New Zealand inflation forecast, Swiss trade balance, exports, imports, industrial production, U.S. initial jobless claims, continuing jobless claims, Philly Fed manufacturing index, leading index change and KC Fed manufacturing index.

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AceTraderFx Nov 19: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time:19 Nov 2021 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 1114.43
Although dlr's fall fm Wed's fresh 3-year peak at 114.97 to 113.94 in tandem with US yields, then 113 .89 yesterday suggests recent uptrend has made a temp. top, subsequent rise to 114.48 Thu signals 1st leg of correction over n 'choppy' trading is in store.

Sell on recovery to 114.45 for 113.80 or buy there for 114.45. Only below 113.66 risks 113.31/36

Data to be released on Friday:
Japan Tokyo CPI.
U.K. Gfk consumer confidence, PSNB, PSNCR, retail sales, France ILO employment rate, Germany producer prices, Italy industrial sales, EU current account.
Canada new housing price index and retail sales.

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AceTraderFx Nov 22: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 22 Nov 2021 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 114.15
Despite the greenback's selloff from 114.53 to as low as 113.59 on Friday due to tumbling U.S. Treasury yields, subsequent strong rebound suggests the correction from last Wednesday's fresh 3-year peak at 114.97 has possibly ended there and consolidation with upside bias remains, above 114.53 would add credence and head to 114.70/75, however, said resistance should hold on 1st testing and yield retreat.

On the downside, only below 113.89 would indicate aforesaid recovery has ended instead and risk stronger weakness to 113.59.

Data to be released today:
EU consumer confidence.
U.S. national activity index, existing hole sales on Monday.

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AceTraderFx Nov 23: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 23 Nov 2021 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 114.62
Despite the greenback's selloff from 114.53 to as low as 113.59 on Friday due to tumbling U.S. Treasury yields, subsequent strong rebound suggests the correction from last Wednesday's fresh 3-year peak at 114.97 has possibly ended there and consolidation with upside bias remains, above 114.53 would add credence and head to 114.70/75, however, said resistance should hold on 1st testing and yield retreat.

On the downside, only below 113.89 would indicate aforesaid recovery has ended instead and risk stronger weakness to 113.59.

On the data front, the only eco. indicator from the U.S. is Richmond Fed manufacturing index.

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AceTraderFx Nov 24: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 24 Nov 2021 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 114.89
Despite the greenback's selloff from 114.53 to as low as 113.59 on Friday due to tumbling U.S. Treasury yields, subsequent strong rebound suggests the correction from last Wednesday's fresh 3-year peak at 114.97 has possibly ended there and consolidation with upside bias remains, above 114.53 would add credence and head to 114.70/75, however, said resistance should hold on 1st testing and yield retreat.

On the downside, only below 113.89 would indicate aforesaid recovery has ended instead and risk stronger weakness to 113.59.

Later today, we have data dump from the U.S. due to Thur's Thanksgiving holiday, please refer to our EI page for details. Pay attention to Q3 GDP as well as PCE price (Fed's preferred inflation gauge), if actual readings are higher than forecast, then expect U.S. yields to rise as well as the greenback.
Last but not the least, if you are still awake, we have release of previous FOMC minutes at 18:00GMT, however, market is expecting hawkish minutes.

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AceTraderFx Nov 25: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 25 Nov 2021 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 115.32
The greenback's rally this week to a fresh 3-year peak at 115.51 on Wednesday on renomination of Federal Reserve Chairman Powell for a second term and hawkish comments from central bank officials suggests Medium Term uptrend would head to 115.90/00 after minor consolidation, however, overbought condition would keep price below 116.20/30 and yield a much-needed correction.

On the downside, only below 113.89 would indicate aforesaid recovery has ended instead and risk stronger weakness to 113.59.

Data to be released on Thursday:
New Zealand imports, trade balance, exports, Australia capital expenditure, building capex, Japan coincident index, leading indicator.
Germany GDP, Gfk consumer sentiment, Italy trade balance.
U.S. Market Holiday and Canada average weekly earnings.

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