AceTraderFx: DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major - USD/JPY

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AceTraderFx Dec 13: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 13 Dec 2021 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 113.65
Dollar's decline from this week's high at 113.95 (Wed) to 113.28 yesterday on safe-haven yen buying suggests recent erratic rise from Nov's 6-week bottom at 112.54 has possibly made a temporary top and consolidation with downside bias remains for weakness to 113.08 but reckon 112.54 should hold from here.

Only abv 113.95 risks one more rise to 114.15/20 before prospect of another fall due to loss of upward momentum.

Data out today:
New Zealand business NZ PSI, Japan machinery orders, Tankan big manufacturing index, Tankan big non-manufacturing index, Tankan small manufacturing index and Tankan small non-manufacturing index.
Germany wholesale price index on Monday.

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AceTraderFx Dec 14: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 14 Dec 2021 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 113.68
Dollar's decline from this week's high at 113.95 (Wed) to 113.28 yesterday on safe-haven yen buying suggests recent erratic rise from Nov's 6-week bottom at 112.54 has possibly made a temporary top and consolidation with downside bias remains for weakness to 113.08 but reckon 112.54 should hold from here.

Only above 113.95 risks one more rise to 114.15/20 before prospect of another fall due to loss of upward momentum.

U.S. will release PPI, core PPI n redbook retail sales.
The FOMC will start its 2-day monetary policy meeting later today.

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AceTraderFx Dec 15: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 15 Dec 2021 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 113.66
Dollar's 1-week long choppy trading from last Wed's 113.95 high are likely to end later today and yield another rise due to expected Fed's hawkish tilt, above 113.95 would extend upmove from Nov's 112.54 low to retrace recent decline to 114.30/40.

On the downside, only below 113.23 signals said corrective rise has ended, then weakness to 113.08 and later 112.68/72 would be seen later this week.

Today is the today n at 19:00GMT, FOMC will announce its monetary policy decision n release Fed's forward guidance (Fed's dot plot). Then at 19:30GMT, Fed's chair J. Powell will have to eat his humble pie in front of the press n publicly say the word 'transitory' whicih had been used repeatedly, despite market's objection/rebuke, to describe Fed's perception of U.S. rising inflation is dead, period.
Tuesday's release of Nov's PPI showed the index grew at the fastest pace on record. Ahead of FOMC announcement, we have a slew of U.S. eco. data, pls refr to our EI page for details.

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AceTraderFx Dec 16: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 16 Dec 2021 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 114.13
Dollar's break of last week's high at 113.95 to 114.26 in post-FOMC New York after Fed's hawkish tilt suggests correction from Nov's 115.51 peak has ended earlier at 112.54 and further gain to 114.60/70 may be seen after consolidation before retreat due to loss of near term upward momentum.

On the downside, only a daily close below 113.95 dampens bullish outlook and risks weakness twd 113.44 later.

Data release on Thursday:
New Zealand food price index, Australia manufacturing index, services PMI, employment change, unemployment change, Japan exports, imports, trade balance, Jibun bank manufacturing PMI, China retail sales.
France business climate, Markit manufacturing PMI, Markit services PMI, Swiss SNB interest rate decision, Germany Markit manufacturing PMI, Markit services PMI,EU Markit manufacturing PMI, Markit services PMI, trade balance, labour cost, ECB refinancing rate, ECB deposit rate, Italy trade balance, global trade balance, U.K. Markit manufacturing PMI, Markit services PMI, BOE interest rate decision, asset purchase programme, BOE QE total, BOE QE corporate bond purchase, BOE MOC vote hike, BOE MPC vote unchanged, BOE MPC vote cut.
U.S. building permits, housing starts, initial jobless claims, continuing jobless claims, Philly Fed manufacturing index, industrial production, capacity utilization, manufacturing output, Markit manufacturing PMI, Markit services PMI, KC Fed manufacturing, Canada wholesale trade and ADP employment change.

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AceTraderFx Dec 17: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 17 Dec 2021 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 113.56
Despite the greenback's rally to 114.26 in post-FOMC trading on Wednesday, subsequent selloff to 113.57 yesterday in tandem with U.S. yields and intra-day break below there to 113.45 in post-BOJ trading suggests early rise from 112.54 has ended there and consolidation with downside bias remains for stronger weakness to 113.23, however, 113.00/10 should remain intact and yield rebound.

On the upside, only above 113.85 (Asia) would indicate aforesaid pullback has ended instead and bring gain towards 114.26 again.

Data to be released on Friday:
New Zealand NBNZ business outlook, NBNZ own activity, U.K. Gfk consumer confidence, retail sales, Japan BoJ interest rate decision, Germany producer prices, wholesale price index, Ifo business climate, Ifo current conditions, Ifo expectations, France business climate, U.K. Markit services PMI, EU construction output, HICP, Canada wholesale trade and budget balance.

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AceTraderFx Dec 20: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 20 Dec 2021 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 113.42
Despite the greenback's rally to 114.26 in post-FOMC trading on Wednesday, subsequent selloff to 113.57 yesterday in tandem with U.S. yields and intra-day break below there to 113.45 in post-BOJ trading suggests early rise from 112.54 has ended there and consolidation with downside bias remains for stronger weakness to 113.23, however, 113.00/10 should remain intact and yield rebound.

On the upside, only above 113.85 (Asia) would indicate aforesaid pullback has ended instead and bring gain towards 114.26 again.

Data to be released today:
New Zealand imports, trade balance, exports.
U.K. Rightmove house price, CBI trends orders.
U.S. leading index change on Monday.

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AceTraderFx Dec 21: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 21 Dec 2021 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 113.59
Despite the greenback's rally to 114.26 in post-FOMC trading on Wednesday, subsequent selloff to 113.57 yesterday in tandem with U.S. yields and intra-day break below there to 113.45 in post-BOJ trading suggests early rise from 112.54 has ended there and consolidation with downside bias remains for stronger weakness to 113.23, however, 113.00/10 should remain intact and yield rebound.

On the upside, only above 113.85 (Asia) would indicate aforesaid pullback has ended instead and bring gain towards 114.26 again.

U.S. eco. calendar is very light with 2nd-tier current account n redbook sales being the only data due out later today

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AceTraderFx Dec 22: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 22 Dec 2021 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 114.30
Dollar's intra-day firm break of last week's high at 114.26 (Wed) due to renewed cross-selling in yen suggests early correction from Nov's 3-year peak at 115.51 has possibly ended earlier at 112.54 and upside bias remains for further gain to 114.80/90, a daily close above needed to head twd 115.25 later this week.

On the downside, only below 113.95 'prolongs' choppy sideways swings and may risk weakness to 113.56/60.

On the data front, U.S. will later release a slew of economic indicators, pls refer to our EI page for details. Pay attetion to U.S. Q3 GDP, PCE n core PCE n later consumer confidence. If readings of these data are better than expected, then expect the greenback will move higher further.

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AceTraderFx Dec 23: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 23 Dec 2021 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 114.26
Yesterday's rally above last week's 114.26 high to a 3-week top of 114.36 (NY) suggests recent erratic upmove from 112.54 to retrace early fall from Nov's 3-year peak at 115.51 would extend further gain after consolidation, loss of upward momentum would cap price at projected res at 114.87 and yield retreat.

On the downside, only a daily close below 113.95 (previous res, now sup) signals top is made, risks retracement to 113.56/60 later.

U.S. will release a slew of eco. data, pls refer to our EI page for details. Pay particular attention to PCE price index (Fed's favourite inflation guage), durable good, jobless climas and University of Michigan consumer confidence, if readings come in better than street forecast, then usd may regain traction after weakness vs other G7 counterparts in last 2 days.

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AceTraderFx Dec 24: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 24 Dec 2021 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 114.37
Dollar corss-inspired rise to a fresh 3-week high of 114.51 (Asia) today suggests correction from Nov's 3-year peak at 115.51 has ended earlier at 112.54 and upside bias remains for marginal gain, loss of near term upward momentum should cap price below 115.00 handle today.

On the downside, only below 114.08 (Thur low) signals temporary top is in place and risks stronger retracement to 113.95/96, then 113.76 next week.

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