AceTraderFx: DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major - USD/JPY

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AceTraderFx Dec 12: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 12 Dec 2019 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 108.63
Despite dollar's retreat from 108.85 in Australia to 108.47 in post-FOMC trading, subsequent rebound suggests choppy trading above last Wednesday's trough at 108.44 would continue, however, reckon resistance at 108.85 would remain intact and bring another fall later, below 108.44 would extend decline from Dec's 6-month high at 109.72 to 108.25 later.

On the upside, only above 108.99 would indicate a temporary low has been made and risk stronger retracement to 109.20 but 109.41 (previous support) would hold.

Pay attention to the release of U.S. jobless claims at 13:30GMT. Street forecast is for an increase to 213k from previous reading of 203k.

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AceTraderFx Dec 13: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 13 Dec 2019 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 109.62
Dollar's intra-day rally to a 1-week high at 109.66 suggests a re-test of Dec's 6-month high at 109.72 would be seen after consolidation, break would extend upmove from Aug's 33-month trough at 104.46 to 109.93 but 110.44 may hold due to overbought condition.

On the downside, only below 108.94 signals temporary top made and stronger retracement to 108.69, break 108.44.

There is a slew of data to be released from U.S. today but one should pay particular attention to retail sales and retail sales ex-autos at 13:30GMT. Street forecasts are 0.5% and 0.4% vs previous readings of 0.3% and 0.2% respectively.

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AceTraderFx Dec 16: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 16 Dec 2019 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 109.44
Despite the greenback's rise to 109.70 on Friday after U.S. and China agreed to a "phase-one" of the trade deal, subsequent retreat to 109.21 on profit-taking suggests further choppy trading below December's 6-month peak at 109.72 would continue with downside bias and below 109.21 would extend weakness to 108.94, then 108.75, however, 108.44 (reaction low) would hold this week and yield rebound.

On the upside, only above 109.70/72 would revive bullishness for further gain to 110.05/10, then 110.30/40 before prospect of correction.

Pay attention to the release of U.S. manufacturing and services PMIs at 14:45GMT. Street forecasts are 52.5 and 51.8 vs previous readings of 52.6 and 51.6 respectively.

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AceTraderFx Dec 17: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 17 Dec 2019 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 109.60
Despite dollar's retreat from last Fri's high at 109.70 to 109.21, subsequent rebound to 109.67 yesterday suggests pullback has ended the same day and consolidation with upside bias remains for re-test of Dec's 6-month top at 109.72, break would extend upmove from Aug's 104.46 bottom to 109.93/00 but 110.10 may hold due to loss of momentum.

On the downside, only below 109.21 would risk weakness to 108.94, then, 108.69.

There is a slew of housing data to be released today but pay attention to industrial production mm at 14:15GMT. Street forecast is for an increase of 0.8% vs previous reading of a 0.8% drop.

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AceTraderFx Dec 18: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 18 Dec 2019 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 109.40
Dollar's daily sideways swings following retreat from last Friday's 109.70 high to 109.21 in New York suggests further choppy trading below Dec's 6-month peak at 109.72 would continue and below said sup would bring stronger retrace of recent upmove from Dec's 108.44 bottom to 108.94/99.

On the upside, above 109.70/72 needed to extend medium term rise from Aug's 33-month trough at 104.46 to 109.90/00, then possibly 110.20.

In the absence of major economic data from U.S., pay attention to comments from Chicago Federal Reserve President Charles Evans, who will participate in a question-an-answer session before an Economic Club of Indiana at 17:40GMT.

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AceTraderFx Dec 19: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 19 Dec 2019 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 109.58
Although dollar's choppy trading following retreat from last Fri's 109.70 high to 109.21 would continue and expect consolidation before re-test of Dec's 6-month top at 109.72, break would extend upmove from Aug's 33-month trough at 104.46 to 109.93, then 110.10/20 before prospect of correction.

On the downside, only below 109.21/26 would risk stronger retracement to 108.94/99.

Pay attention to Bank of Japan's rate decision (circa 03:00GMT) and although no change in policy is expected, investors should pay attention to Governor Kuroda's press conference at 06:00GMT to see if he gives any hints on whether the central bank will look to ease its policy further or not.

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AceTraderFx Dec 20: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 20 Dec 2019 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 109.37
Although price has recovered after yesterday's selloff on falling U.S. yields and break of previous support at 109.21 to 109.19 and minor consolidation would be seen, as said move signals near term decline from last Friday's high at 109.70 has resumed, downside bias remains and below 109.19 would yield stronger retracement to 108.94, then 108.50/60.

On the upside, only a daily close above 109.70/72 would indicate Medium Term upmove from 2019 trough at 104.46 (August) has resumed instead and extend to 109.93/95 early next week.

There is a slew of data out from the U.S. today but one should pay particular attention to the release of final GDP figures at 13:30GMT. Street forecasts for GDP Q3 and GDP deflator are 2.1% and 1.8% vs previous readings of 2.1% and 1.7% respectively.

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AceTraderFx Dec 23: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 23 Dec 2019 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 109.37
Dollar's rebound to 109.53 in Australia today suggests pullback from 109.70 has ended at 109.19 last Thursday and re-test of Dec's 6-month high at 109.72 would be seen after consolidation, break would extend upmove from Aug's 33-month trough at 104.46 to 109.93, then 110.10 before prospect of correction.

On the downside, only below 109.19 signals temporary top made and risks weakness to 108.94, then 108.44/46.

Pay attention to release of U.S. durable goods, durables ex-transport at 13:30GMT. Street forecasts are 1.9% and 0.1% vs previous readings of 0.5% and 0.5% respectively.

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AceTraderFx Dec 24: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 24 Dec 2019 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 109.38
Despite dollar's rebound from 109.19 last Thursday to 109.53 yesterday, subsequent retreat suggests choppy trading below Dec's 6-month high at 109.72 would continue, however, reckon said support would hold and yield prospect of another rise, above 109.70/72 would extend upmove from Aug's 33-month trough at 104.46 to 109.93, then 110.00/10 before correction.

On the downside, only below 108.94 would risk stronger retracement to 108.44/46.

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AceTraderFx Dec 27: Intra-Day News and Views & data to be released today -USD/JPY

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
Update Time: 27 Dec 2019 04:30GMT

USD/JPY - 109.49... The greenback found renewed buying at 109.30 ahead of Asian open yesterday and gained to 109.56 in Asian morning. The pair continued to ratchet higher and hit session highs at 109.68 in holiday-thinned New York on improved risk appetite as concerns over U.S. and China eased. However, failure to penetrate December's 6-month peak at 109.72 triggered profit-taking and price retreated to 109.44 in Asia today.

Dollar's retreat from 109.68 suggests further choppy trading below December's 6-month peak at 109.72 would continue with downside bias and marginal weakness is likely
However, bids at 109.30/40 should contain current pullback and yield another rise later.
Therefore, buying on dips for a resumption of upmove from August's low at 104.46 is favored.

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