AceTraderFx: DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major - USD/JPY

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AceTraderFx Dec 30 : Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 30 Dec 2019 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 109.14
Despite dollar's rebound to 109.68 last Thursday, subsequent retreat and intra-day break of previous support at 109.19 suggests further choppy trading below Dec's 6-month peak at 109.72 would continue and would head towards 108.94, then possibly 108.44/46 before prospect of rebound.

On the upside, only above 109.39/44 signals pullback has ended and risks gain to 109.58, then re-test of 109.72.

Pay attention to the release of Chicago PMI at 14:45GMT. Street forecast is for an increase to 47.9 from previous reading of 46.3.

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AceTraderFx Dec 31: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 31 Dec 2019 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 108.68
Although dollar's selloff and break of previous support at 109.19 to 108.76 in New York yesterday, then lower today suggests further choppy trading below Dec's 6-month high at 109.72 would continue and weakness to 108.44/46 would be seen after consolidation, break needed to extend decline to 108.25/29.

On the upside, only above 109.07 signals pullback over and risks gain towards 109.22 then 109.39/44.

U.S. will release a slew of eco. data later today, pay attention to U.S. consumer confidence at 15:00GMT. Street forecast is for an uptick to 128.2 from previous reading of 125.5.

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AceTraderFx Jan 02: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 02 Jan 2020 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 108.80
Despite dollar's selloff from last Thursday's 109.68 high to 108.48 on Tuesday, subsequent rebound suggests choppy trading above Dec's 108.44 low would be seen before prospect of another fall, below said support would extend decline from Dec's 6-month peak at 109.72 to 108.25/29, then 107.90 (Nov's bottom).

On the upside, only above 108.94/99 would risk stronger retracement to 109.19/22.

Pay attention to the release of U.S. jobless claims at 13:30GMT. Street forecast is for an increase to 225K from previous reading of 222K.

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AceTraderFx Jan 03: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 03 Jan 2020 03:30GMT

USD/JPY - 107.94
Dollar's break of December's trough at 108.44 to 108.22 yesterday, then lower today on active safe-haven jpy buying after U.S. missile attack on Iraq suggests decline from December's 6-month high at 109.72 has resumed and re-test of November's 107.90 low would be seen after consolidation, break would extend towards 107.71, then 107.40/50 before prospect of correction.

On the upside, only above 108.44/48 would risk stronger retracement to 108.62, then possibly 108.86.

Pay attention to the US ISM manufacturing PMI at 15:00GMT. Street forecast is for an increase to 49.0 from previous reading of 48.1. Investors should also keep an eye out on the release of FOMC minutes at 19:00GMT.

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AceTraderFx Jan 06: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 06 Jan 2020 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 108.12
Although price has recovered after intra-day fall to a 2-1/2 month trough at 107.78 on cross-buying in jpy and minor consolidation would be seen, as said move signals decline from December's 6-month peak at 109.72 has resumed, downside bias remains and below 107.78 would extend to 107.46. However, loss of momentum would keep price above 107.09/10 and yield correction later.

On the upside, only above 108.62 would indicate a temporary low has been made and risk stronger retracement to 108.86/90 before prospect of retreat.

U.S. eco. calendar is very light wuth Markit services PMI for Dec being the only data due out. Anyway, market focus remains on full alert on latest developments in the Middle East.

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AceTraderFx Jan 07: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 07 Jan 2020 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 108.37
Although dollar has recovered after yesterday's fall to a 2-1/2 month trough at 107.78 on cross-buying in jpy and minor consolidation would be seen, as said move signals decline from December's 6-month peak at 109.72 has resumed, downside bias remains and below 107.78 would extend to 107.46. However, loss of momentum would keep price above 107.09/10 and yield correction later.

On the upside, only above 108.62 would indicate a temporary low has been made and risk stronger retracement to 108.86/90 before prospect of retreat.

U.S. will later release a slew of eco. data (see our EI page for details), the majority of them are revision for Nov, however, do pay attention to ISM mfg PMI for Dec due out at 15:00GMT as this may have impact to price if actual number deviates sharply fm street forecast of 54.5 vs prev. reading of 53.9. Also, Fed Boad Gov. Brainard will be speaking at 15:00GMT in Washington but topic is not related to monetary policy.

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AceTraderFx Jan 08: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 08 Jan 2020 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 108.43
Despite the greenback's selloff to a 12-week trough at 107.66 on escalating US-Iran conflict after Iran fired missiles on U.S. airbase in Iraq, subsequent strong rebound suggests decline from December's 6-month peak at 109.72 has made a temporary low there and choppy trading with mild upside bias would be seen, however, resistance at 108.62 should remain intact and yield retreat later.

On the downside, only below 107.66 would revive bearishness for weakness to 107.20/30 but loss of momentum would keep price above 106.97, bring correction.

As intra-day jump from 107.66 signals temporary low has been made, expect choppy sideways swings in European morning and pay attention to official response from the U.S. esp. statement by Trump in New York morning later today.

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AceTraderFx Jan 09: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 09 Jan 2020 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 109.34
Despite the greenback's selloff to a 12-week trough at 107.66 in Asia, subsequent rally to 109.24 in New York after President Trump's statement on Iran suggests decline from December's 6-month peak at 109.72 has made a temporary low there and upside bias remains for gain to 109.55/58, however, aforesaid top would hold on first testing and yield retreat.

On the downside, only below 108.81 (previous resistance) would indicate said recovery has ended instead and turn outlook bearish for weakness to 108.62.

The only data due out fm the U.S. is weekly jobless claims, so market awaits earnestly for Fri's key jobs report. However, do pay attention to speeches n interview of a number of Fed official during U.S. session which may have a short-term impact on price movement (see our EI section for full details).

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AceTraderFx Jan 13: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 13 Jan 2020 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 109.65
Dollar's intra-day rebound after retreat from Fri's 109.69 high to 109.44 in New York suggests correction has ended and consolidation with upside bias remains for re-test of Dec's 6-month peak of 109.72, break would extend upmove from Aug's 33-month trough at 104.46 to 110.10/15 but 110.32/37 should hold due to loss of momentum.

On the downside, only below 109.24 signals temporary top is in place and risks weakness to 109.01/05, then 108.62.

Although there will be no economic data from U.S. today, we have a number of Fed officials speaking in New York session, please refer to our EI page for details.

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AceTraderFx Jan 14: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 14 Jan 2020 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 108.98
Dollar's resumption of upmove from Aug's 33-month trough at 104.46 to a 7-1/2 month's 110.20 high at Asian open today on continued U.S.-China trade optimism suggests price would head towards 110.67 after consolidation before prospect of correction due to 'loss of upward momentum'.

On the downside, only below 109.69/72 signals temporary top made and risks weakness to 109.44, break, 109.24.

On the data front, pay attention to release of U.S. core CPI, CPI, real weekly earnings and redbook at 13:55 GMT, then Federal budget at 19:00 GMT later. Also, we have New York Fed's President John Williams due to speak at 14:10 GMT, followed by Kansas City Fed's President Esther George at 18:00 GMT.

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