AceTraderFx: Intra-Day Market Moving News & Views & data to be released today

[acetraderfx]

AceTraderFx Feb 25: BOJ Takahide Kiuchi’s dissenting views on negative interest rates

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
25 Feb 2016 02:06GMT

USD/JPY - ...... Bank of Japan Takahide Kiuchi said in a speech to the business leaders on negative interest rates,could have a result on Japan's financial system being destabilised by squeezing banks' margins and reducing returns on financial investment, and that BOJ should have save that for the future.
A former market economist, Kiuchi was among four of the nine board members who dissented to the BOJ's decision last month to adopt negative rates to prevent global market turmoil from delaying a sustained end to deflation. He has also been a lone proponent to taper the bank's massive asset-buying programme.

More on his latest speech :
-personally felt BoJ ought to save its options now instead of introducing negative rates last month
-don't think BoJ has no tools left to act if economic, financial environment deteriorates
-desirable for central banks to guide policy flexibly, comprehensively combining various means
-in event of crisis, BoJ should consider steps like offering temporary, ample liquidity to protect financial system
-2 pct inflation exceeds price level deemed appropriate in light of true strength of Japan's economy
-at present, hard to achieve 2 pct inflation stably with monetary policy alone
-Japan's economy continues to recover moderately
-Capex, wages are not rising as much as I hoped
-see global economic outlook, market developments as key risks to Japan's economy
-if exports show clear downtrend on weak overseas growth, that may hurt Japan's consumption, output
-tough to push up long-term inflation expectations with BoJ policy alone
-vigilant to various problems that may occur as BoJ buys and holds massive amounts of jgb, which could distort market function
-adopting negative rates risks destabilising BoJ's asset buying
-dissented to last month's decision as did not see need to expand stimulus with economic, price conditions stable

AceTrader - Best Intra-day Forex Trading Strategies
AceTrader has been in FX market since 1984, with proven analytical approach used by professionals and real-time updates

 

[acetraderfx]

AceTraderFx Feb 26: IMF at G20 will call for a coordinated stimulus programme to support a slowing global economy

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
26 Feb 2016 01:33GMT

G20 meeting is meet in Shanghai starting today to discuss ways to calm global markets and spur economic growth, and are likely to declare their readiness to take action if conditions worsen.
Chinese policymakers sought on Thursday to reassure trading partners that they can manage their economy and financial markets smoothly while driving structural reforms, following recent concern voiced by foreign officials and economists about Beijing's recent record.

Finance Minister Lou Jiwei and People's Bank of China Governor Zhou Xiaochuan will likely hammer home the message that Beijing has everything under control when they speak this morning.
Global economic malaise and wobbly markets overshadow the meeting of the finance minister and central bank governors of the Group of 20 (G20) major economies on Friday and Saturday.

G20 financial leaders are likely to push for better implementation of the already agreed reforms and an assessment of where implementation is lacking and why. But many economists and officials are sceptical that much would come from the G20.
A report published by IMF called for a coordinated stimulus programme to support a slowing global economy.

Still, an official with the European Union said G20 policymakers recognise elevated risks and likely will declare readiness to act if global economic conditions worsen.
G20 financial leaders are likely to push for better implementation of the already agreed reforms and an assessment of where implementation is lacking and why.
The International Monetary Fund's Christine Lagarde, German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble and Bank of England Governor Mark Carney are also scheduled to speak later today.

AceTrader - Best Intra-day Forex Trading Strategies
AceTrader has been in FX market since 1984, with proven analytical approach used by professionals and real-time updates

 

[acetraderfx]

AceTraderFx Feb 26: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views (USD/JPY)

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
26 Feb 2016 03:11GMT

USD/JPY - ...... Despite initial rise above o/n New York high of 113.02 on higher open in the Nikkie (N225 index climbed to 2-1/2 week high of 16472) following yesterday's rally in the Dow, however, the pair pared intra-day gain on a surprise rise in the euro vs usd, price later retreated to 112.68.

Looks like dlr would consolidate below said Asian high due to broad-based usd's weakness until European open.
Offers are tipped above 113.00/10 and more above with stops reported above 113.40.
Initial bids are noted at 112.70-60 with some stops touted below there, however, more buying interest is reported at 112.30-20.

Data to be released on Friday:

New Zealand imports, exports, trade balance, Japan CPI, U.K. consumer confidence, Germany import price index, CPI, Harmonised index of consumer prices, France producer prices, consumer spending, GDP, Italy wage inflation, Eurozone consumer confidence, services sentiment, business climate, industrial sentiment, inflation expectation, selling price expectation, U.S. GDP, personal consumption expenditures, personal income, personal spending, good trade balance, adjusted consumption and Reuters/University of Michigan consumer sentiment index.

Pay attention to release of important preliminary U.S. Q4 GDP at 13:30GMT as the pair reacted to yesterday's upbeat U.S. durable good order n rallied after the data.

AceTrader - Best Intra-day Forex Trading Strategies
AceTrader has been in FX market since 1984, with proven analytical approach used by professionals and real-time updates

 

[acetraderfx]

AceTraderFx Feb 29: G20 financial leaders to inform each other ahead on policy decisions that could devalue currencies

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
29 Feb 2016 00:52GMT

On G20 meeting, Reuters reported that the financial leaders of the world's 20 biggest economies agreed to inform each other in advance about policy decisions that could lead to devaluations of their currencies.
This move is an addition to the traditional declaration in G20 communiques that countries will refrain from competitive evaluations, Dijsselbloem said in Shanghai. The decision was prompted by concerns among some of G20 financial leaders about the possibility of competitive devaluations in Japan or China, he said.

At the same time the communique said the G20 would better monitor capital flows and identify associated risks.
Dijsselbloem said in cases where devaluation is a consequence of monetary policy motivated by real macroeconomic domestic reasons, then members must make sure to inform each other in advance to avoid surprises and this is an extra commitment between the G20 countries that they will refrain from competitive devaluations.

On USD Reuters reported speculators pared bullish bets on the U.S. dollar for a ninth straight week, as net longs fell to their lowest level since the third week of May 2014, according to Reuters calculations and data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission released on Friday.
The value of the dollar's net long position sank to $5.75 billion in the week ended Feb. 23, from $8.31 billion the previous week. It was the second straight week that net dollar longs came in below $10 billion.

The decline in oil and stocks as well as a slowdown in China have pushed back expectations for an interest rate hike by the Fed to some time next year. That's a negative for the dollar, prompting investors to liquidate most of their net long positions on the greenback.
So far on the year, the dollar index has been down 0.6 percent, after posting gains in excess of 9 percent in 2015.

In other currencies, investors pushed net long positions on the yen to their highest level in four years. The expectation is that the Bank of Japan won't do as much quantitative easing as the market expected.
AceTrader - Best Intra-day Forex Trading Strategies
AceTrader has been in FX market since 1984, with proven analytical approach used by professionals and real-time updates

 

[acetraderfx]

AceTraderFx Feb 29: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views (EUR/USD)

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
29 Feb 2016 05:11GMT

EUR/USD - ...... Euro gained respite in Asian morning and traded narrowly in subdued Monday morning after tanking to a fresh 3-week low of 1.0912 in New York morning after release of upbeat U.S. data.

Although price re-tested 1.0912 in Australia earlier this morning, subsequent bounce to 1.0936 suggests sideways trading would continue until European open, however, do pay attention to release of a slew of European data, starting with German import price and retail sales, after that, we have Italy's & EZ CPI n inflation data respectively.

Offers are tipped at 1.0935/45 and more with stops above 1.0980.
Initial bids are noted at 1.0915-10 with stops below 1.0900.

AceTrader - Best Intra-day Forex Trading Strategies
AceTrader has been in FX market since 1984, with proven analytical approach used by professionals and real-time updates

 

[acetraderfx]

AceTraderFx Mar 1: Japanese capital investment rose at a slower pace & corporate profits fell for the first time in four years

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views (USD/JPY)
01 Mar 2016 01:15GMT

USD/JPY - .....Earlier Japanese Finance Minister Taro Aso said that the central bank's negative interest rate policy was already having positive effects after its adoption in late January and is currently not considering to compile additional fiscal spending to prop up the economy given that the budget for next fiscal year had not yet cleared parliament.

Data out by the Ministry of Finance, the Japanese capital investment rose at a slower pace in October-December and corporate profits fell for the first time in four years in a worrying sign that flagging business spending will weigh on economic growth. The data suggests that revised gross domestic product (GDP) due on March 8 may show Japan's economy contracted more than first reported, adding to the sense of pessimism surrounding the strength of domestic demand.

Japan's robust employment pattern continued, however, with seasonally adjusted unemployment falling in January to 3.2 percent, versus the median estimate for 3.3 percent. The jobs to applicants ratio rose to a 24-year high of 1.28, versus the median forecast of 1.27.

Separate data showed household spending fell more than expected in January, providing further evidence that uncertainty about the economy may be behind consumers cutting expenditure.
Decelerating capital investment and corporate profits are a worrying sign that the government may need to respond with more stimulus measures to prevent business and household activity from weakening further.

A preliminary estimate showed the economy contracted an annualised 1.4 percent in October-December as consumer spending and exports slumped. The 8.5 percent annual increase in capital expenditure in October-December was slower than an 11.2 percent annual gain in July-September.
Japan's household spending fell an annual 3.1 percent in January, more than the median estimate for a 2.7 percent year-on-year decline.

Japan's economy is expected to return to growth in the current quarter, but there are persistent doubts about the outlook. Economists say the government's reforms have not done enough to raise the potential growth rate.

AceTrader - Best Intra-day Forex Trading Strategies
AceTrader has been in FX market since 1984, with proven analytical approach used by professionals and real-time updates

 

[acetraderfx]

AceTraderFx Mar 1: Intra-Day News and Views (USD/JPY) & data to be released today

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
01 Mar 2016 03:32GMT

USD/JPY - ..... Dlr languishes above intra-day low at 112.16, price penetrated Monday's New York low at 112.66 in thin Australian morning after hitting stops below 112.60, price fell to 112.19, despite a short-covering recovery to 112.54 at Asian open, price fell again to 112.16 before stabilising.

The lack of a rebound from 112.16 suggests intra-day downside bias remains, offers are noted at 112.50/60 n more above with stop touted above 113.00.
Some bids are noted at 112.15-112.05 with stops reported below 111.90., suggesting selling dlr on recovery is favoured.

Data to be released today:

New Zealand term of trade, imports, exports, Australia AIG manufacturing index, building permits, current account, interest rate decision, Japan unemployment rate, jobs/applicants ratio, all household spending, MOF business Capex, manufacturing PMI, China, non-manufacturing PMI, manufacturing PMI, Swiss retail sales, manufacturing PMI, Italy manufacturing PMI, unemployment rate, France manufacturing PMI, Germany manufacturing PMI, unemployment rate, unemployment change, Eurozone manufacturing PMI, unemployment rate, U.K. manufacturing PMI, Canada manufacturing PMI, GDP, U.S. Redbook, manufacturing PMI and construction spending.

AceTrader - Best Intra-day Forex Trading Strategies
AceTrader has been in FX market since 1984, with proven analytical approach used by professionals and real-time updates

 

[acetraderfx]

AceTraderFx Mar 2: Australia's economy outpaced all forecasts at the fastest pace in almost two years

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views (AUD/USD)
02 Mar 2016 02:38GMT

AUD/USD - ...... Aud maintains a firm undertone after jumping from 0.7166 to 0.7236 after release of upbeat AU GDP data. Reuters later reported Australia's economy outpaced all forecasts to grow at the fastest pace in almost two years last quarter as strength in consumer and government spending offset the heavy drag from a global mining slump.

Gross domestic product (GDP) expanded by 0.6 percent in the fourth quarter, from the previous quarter when it rose an upwardly revised 1.1 per cent.
That propelled growth for the year to 3 percent, well above the 2.5 percent that had been expected by both analysts and the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA).

The central bank has held rates steady since May last year and just this week skipped a chance to ease, saying it saw "reasonable prospects" for growth.
RBA Governor Glenn Stevens did say there would be scope for further easing given that inflation looked set to remain low, and investors are still wagering he will have to move eventually given headwinds facing the global economy.

However, the timing has been pushed out with interbank futures now implying a 45 percent chance of a cut by May, compared to 60 percent before the data.
The RBA has made it clear it would prefer any further stimulus to come through a lower Australian dollar, but is being thwarted by the drastic easing of central banks elsewhere.

AceTrader - Best Intra-day Forex Trading Strategies
AceTrader has been in FX market since 1984, with proven analytical approach used by professionals and real-time updates

 

[acetraderfx]

AceTraderFx Mar 3: Intra-Day News and Views (USD/JPY) & data to be released today

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
03 Mar 2016 02:30GMT

USD/JPY - ..... Despite yesterday's cross-inspired selloff from New York's 2-week high of 114.56 to as low as 113.22, dlr ratcheted higher to 113.89 partly on yen-selling as intra-day minor gain in the Nikkie boosted risk sentiment, suggesting range trading is in store until European open.

Offers are tipped at 113.85/95 and more above with stops above 114.00, however, more selling interest is reported at 114.45/55.
On the downside, initial bids are noted at 113.50-10 with some stops below 113.20.

Pay attention to release of U.S. initial weekly jobless claims, ISM services PMI and the important January durable goods order ahead of Friday's key jobs data.

Data to be released on Thursday:

Australia imports, exports, trade balance, China service PMI, France service PMI, unemployment rate, Italy service PMI, Germany service PMI, U.K. service PMI, Eurozone service PMI, retail sales, U.S. initial jobless claims, unit labour costs, nonfarm productivity, service PMI, non-manufacturing PMI, durable goods, non-defense capital and factory orders.

AceTrader - Best Intra-day Forex Trading Strategies
AceTrader has been in FX market since 1984, with proven analytical approach used by professionals and real-time updates

 

[acetraderfx]

AceTraderFx Mar 3: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views (USD/JPY)

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views (USD/JPY)
03 Mar 2016 03:10GMT

USD/JPY - ...... Bank of Japan Deputy Governor Hiroshi Nakaso in a speech to business leaders today urged the government to pursue structural reforms "without loosening the reins" to boost the country's growth potential and maximise the economic impact of ultra-loose monetary policy.

He also said the market pessimism over Japan's economic outlook was overblown, stressing that the BOJ has room to expand stimulus further either by topping up asset purchases or pushing interest rates further into negative territory.
Although global financial markets have been volatile since the turn of the year, he believes there is no need to be too pessimistic as the fundamentals of Japan's economy have been firm.

Below are the details on Nakaso speech:
-topping up asset buying remains an option as well as deepening negative rates if BoJ were to ease again
-Japan's economic fundamentals are solid, no need to be excessively pessimistic
-expect inflation to reach 2 pct around first half of fiscal 2017
-of 260 trln yen in reserves parked with BoJ, negative rates will be applied to around 10 trln yen
- effect of qqe with negative rates already appearing with jgb yields falling further
-don't think retail deposit rates will turn negative in Japan, judging from experiences in Europe
-Japan must tackle challenges to raise medium-term growth potential to achieve sustainable economic growth
strongly hope govt continues committing to structural reform without loosening the reins
-monetary policy to overcome deflation, structural reform to raise Japan's growth potential must be pursued in tandem to achieve sustainable growth
-expect original third arrow of abenomics to fly higher and faster with BoJ's introduction of QQE with negative rates
-there could be a certain limit to how much central banks can push rates deeper into negative territory
-estimates show qqe has heightened inflation expectations by roughly 0.5 percentage point

AceTrader - Best Intra-day Forex Trading Strategies
AceTrader has been in FX market since 1984, with proven analytical approach used by professionals and real-time updates