AceTraderFx: Intra-Day Market Moving News & Views & data to be released today

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AceTraderFx Mar 4: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views (USD/JPY)

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views (USD/JPY)
04 Mar 2016 02:10GMT

USD/JPY - ..... Dollar met renewed selling at 113.76 in Australia and briefly fell to intra-day low of 113.25 after BoJ Kuroda's interest rate remarks.

In the parliament speech, Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda remarks on not going to pushing interest rates further into negative territory now. The BOJ stunned markets by adopting a negative interest rate policy in January to reflate the economy out of stagnation and achieve its ambitious 2 percent inflation target.

Japanese Economy Minister Nobuteru Ishihara said an advisory panel on new spending would hold its first meeting in the middle of this month and would discuss the world economy, energy and the financial sector, and that the advisory panel was not for preparation of a delay in a planned sales-tax hike.

More updates news on their speeches to come later.

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AceTraderFx Mar 4: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views (EUR/USD)

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
04 Mar 2016 04:16GMT

EUR/USD - ..... Euro pares yesterday's impressive gain in Asia after rising from 1.0892 (New York low) to as high as 1.0973, as slightly weaker-than-expected U.S. data triggered broad-based long liquidation in recent long positions.

The single currency retreated to 1.0925 ahead of Asian lunch session, looks like sideways trading below said New York 1.3973 high would continue until European open.
The only eco. data ahead of release of key U.S. NFP is Italy's final Q4 GDP, so technical trading would dominate until New York open.

Bids are noted at 1.0935-25 and more below with stops below 1.0900.
Offers are tipped at 1.0963/73 with stops above there, more stops are touted above 1.1000, suggesting trading euro from long side is favoured until the US payrolls number.

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AceTraderFx Mar 7: Intra-Day News and Views (USD/JPY) & data to be released today

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
07 Mar 2016 02:00GMT

USD/JPY - ...... Despite staging an intra-day rally in post-NFP New York low of 113.12 to as high as 114.26 in New York afternoon on active cross-selling in yen, dlr pared Friday's gain and fell to 113.50 after tripping stops below 113.70 as the Nikkei opened lower on Monday, damping market's risk appetite.

Looks like said Friday's 114.26 peak would hold from here as intra-day broad-based cross unwinding in yen suggests selling dlr on recovery is favoured.
Offers are noted at 113.85/95 n more at 114.00 with stops above 114.30.
Some bids are reported at 113.50-40 with stops touted below 113.10.

BoJ Gov Kuroda will be speaking at at a forum hosted by Japan's Yomiuri newspaper at 03:40GMT.

Data to be released:

Japan leading economic index, coincident index, Germany factory orders, Italy producer prices, Eurozone investor confidence and U.S. employment trend on Monday.

New Zealand manufacturing sales, Japan GDP, trade balance, current account, economy watcher poll, consumer confidence index, Australia business confidence, business conditions, China imports, exports, trade balance, Swiss unemployment rate, CPI, U.K. retail sales, Germany industrial production, France imports, exports, trade balance, current account, Eurozone GDP, Canada building permits, housing starts, U.S. Redbook and economic optimism on Tuesday.

Australia consumer sentiment, Japan machine tool orders, France nonfarm payroll, U.K. manufacturing output, GDP estimate, industrial output, U.S. mortgage application, wholesale inventories, wholesale sale, Canada rate decision, New Zealand rate decision on Wednesday.

Japan domestic corporate goods price index, Australia inflation expectation, China producer price index, consumer price index, Germany export, import, trade balance, current account, France industrial output, U.K. housing survey, Eurozone interest rate decision, U.S. initial jobless claims, Canada new housing price index and capacity utilization on Thursday.

New Zealand manufacturing PMI, Germany consumer price index, Harmonised index of consumer prices,
Italy industrial output, U.K. construction output, good trade balance, Canada unemployment rate, employment change, participation rate, U.S. import prices, export prices and Reuters/University of Michigan consumer sentiment index on Friday.

China retail sales and industrial production on Saturday.

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AceTraderFx Mar 8: Intra-Day News and Views (USD/JPY) & data to be released today

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
08 Mar 2016 03:04GMT

USD/JPY - ...... Dlr tumbles in hectic Tokyo session as broad-based weakness in Asian stocks triggered active buying of yen on risk aversion.
The pair met renewed selling at Asian open at 113.52 n decline accelerated once stops at 113.10 were tripped, price later weakened to 112.75.

The lack of a short-covering bounce suggests market is eager to test dlr's downside, so selling the pair on recovery is the way to go.
Offers have been lowered 113.00/10 and more above with stops touted above 113.55.
Some bids are noted at 112.70-66 with more stops below there.

Data to be released on Tuesday included:

New Zealand manufacturing sales, Japan GDP, trade balance, current account, economy watcher poll, consumer confidence index, Australia business confidence, business conditions, China imports, exports, trade balance, Swiss unemployment rate, CPI, U.K. retail sales, Germany industrial production, France imports, exports, trade balance, current account, Eurozone GDP, Canada building permits, housing starts, U.S. Redbook and economic optimism

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AceTraderFx Mar 8: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views (EUR/USD)

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
08 Mar 2016 05:17GMT

EUR/USD - ...... Euro maintains a firm undertone in Asian morning following yesterday's intra-day rally from European low of 1.0940 to 1.1026 as strong gains in oil and metals' prices led to broad-based usd selling.
The single currency met renewed buying at 1.1010/11 in Asia and climbed marginally above said o/n 1.1026 high to 1.1028.

Although yesterday's rally to 1.1026 signals re-test of last Friday's post-NFP peak at 1.1044 is on the cards, traders cited offers at 1.1060/70 and these may limit intra-day gain.
For now, buying euro on pullback for resumption of last week's upmove is favoured, bids have been raised to 1.1010/00 and more below, some offers are tipped at 1.1040/45 with stops above there.

Pay attention to a slew of eco. data due out in European starting with Germany's industrial production, France's trade data and EU's revised Q4 GDP data.

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AceTraderFx Mar 9: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views (GBP/USD)

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
09 Mar 2016 02:28GMT

GBP/USD - ...... The Bank of England(BoE) is still more likely to raise interest rates than to cut them over the next two years, but it has plenty of scope to stimulate the economy if needed, said Martin Weale who is BoE policy maker, he challenged the view among some investors that central banks had run out of ammunition to boost their economies at a time when the world's recovery from the financial crisis has slowed.
He continued to say that If needed, the BoE could cut rates below their current record low of 0.5 percent or launch a new round of quantitative easing, possibly purchasing private-sector assets.
Banks in London have also backed staying in and last week the City of London, the municipal authority for the financial district, also formally supported staying.

On news about Brexit, sources have said that U.S. banks Morgan Stanley and Citi have said there could be a backlash against Britain as a financial centre if it left the EU. Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan have made donations to the campaign to keep Britain in.
London mayor Boris Johnson, who is campaigning to pull Britain out of the EU, has said leaving would be a "golden opportunity" and has dismissed "threats" from banks to relocate from London.
While Bank of England Governor Mark Carney said less favourable exit terms under a Brexit would see some banking operations move to Ireland or continental Europe.

TheCityUK said if Britain left, it could not be assumed that EU regulators would be able to live with big EU financial services businesses maintaining their current level of assets in London if markets there were subject to different rules.
heCityUK also represents related services like accounting and law firms, which, together with the banks, employ some 2.2 million people.
The finance industry accounts for nearly 12 percent of the British economy and pays 66 billion pounds ($93.75 billion) a year in tax, making it the biggest contributor to government coffers of any business sector.

TheCityUK, which has already stated that Britain is better off staying in the EU, listed the drawbacks of any potential alternatives to membership, such as still having to contribute money to the EU for access to the single market while having no say over its financial rules.

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ECB is expected to cut its deposit rate deeper into negative territory


Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
10 Mar 2016 01:40GMT

EUR/USD - ..... Euro pares yesterday's rally from 1.0946 to 1.1035 in Asia SS market remains nervous ahead of today's ECB meeting. ECB is set to unveil its second stimulus cocktail in three months on Thursday, spurred by fears that low energy costs are feeding into wages and prices, potentially perpetuating ultra-low inflation.
The euro zone's central bank is widely expected to cut its deposit rate deeper into negative territory and adjust its 1.5 trillion euro asset-buying scheme, hoping to boost prices after inflation dipped back into negative territory last month.

The ECB has little to show for the 700 billion euros it has spent buying government bonds and other assets in the past year, as tumbling raw materials prices blunt the impact of its quantitative easing. That raises the risk that people will lose faith in the bank's commitment to its mandate, dragging down long-term price expectations.
Inflation has been below the ECB's nearly 2 percent target for three years and is likely to remain so for many more.

Draghi has already said that acting too soon is better than acting too late, and that the rate meeting needs to recognise that the outlook for growth and inflation have deteriorated. But with policy already deep in unconventional territory, the ECB has few big guns left and most remaining options risk either negative side effects or potential legal challenges, suggesting the Governing Council will opt for a package of modest measures.

Analysts polled expect the ECB to cut its deposit rate to -0.4 percent from -0.3 percent, charging banks more for keeping their cash with the bank overnight. They also see a 60 percent chance the ECB will raise its monthly asset purchases, probably by 10 billion euros to 70 billion euros a month.
It could also firm up its forward guidance, drop a self-imposed limit not to buy assets yielding less than its deposit rate and launch a new targeted longer-term refinancing operation, possibly at a negative rate, to help boost lending, growth and eventually inflation.

But more radical ideas, like an even deeper rate cut, a multi-tier deposit rate, or buying non-performing bank loans, are unlikely to gain traction within the diverse 25-member Governing Council that has shunned radical steps in several earlier tweaks of its asset-buying programme.

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AceTraderFx Mar 11: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views (USD/JPY)

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views (USD/JPY)
11 Mar 2016 02:00GMT

USD/JPY ..... A government survey showed that the Japanese business sentiment worsened sharply in the first quarter, suggesting that financial market turbulence and sluggish global demand were taken a toll on a fragile economic recovery.
The data keeps pressure on policymakers to deploy additional fiscal and monetary stimulus measures to reflate an economy that is skirting another recession.

The business survey index (BSI) of sentiment at large manufacturers stood at minus 7.9 in January-March, swinging from plus 3.8 in October-December, according to a joint survey by the Ministry of Finance and the Economic and Social Research Institute, an arm of the Cabinet Office.
The index measuring big manufacturers' sentiment three months ahead stood at minus 3.5, a sign the gloomy outlook may discourage companies from boosting wages or capital expenditure, given sluggish demand in China and other emerging Asian markets.
Companies expect capital expenditure to have risen 8.8 percent in the current fiscal year ending in March, but shrink 6.6 percent in the coming business year, the survey showed.

The world's third-largest economy shrank in the final quarter of 2015 as slow wage growth and sluggish global demand hurt consumption and exports.
While many analysts expect growth to have rebounded modestly in the current quarter, the bleak outlook for global demand has led some to predict another contraction that will push Japan back into technical recession - defined as two straight quarters of economic contraction.

The BSI measures the percentage of firms that expect the business environment to improve from the previous quarter minus the percentage that expect it to worsen.

Japanese Finance Minister Taro Aso said on Friday that he hoped the BOJ would continue its efforts to achieve its 2 percent price target, while suggesting that specific monetary policy steps were up to the central bank to decide.
The adoption of negative interest rates by the BOJ is already having an impact such as bringing down housing loan rates.
The BOJ is set to hold off cutting interest rates at next week's rate review, as it scrambles to soothe market jitters which was caused by January's surprise decision to adopt.

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AceTraderFx Mar 14: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views (NZD/USD) (USD/JPY)

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views (NZD/USD) (USD/JPY)
14 Mar 2016 01:22GMT

NZD/USD - 0.6738.. Kiwi briefly fell to 0.6717/18 earlier today after statements by New Zealand cenbank. New Zealand's central bank reported on Monday that the inflation expectations are a key issue for monetary policy.
RBNZ Assistant Governor John McDermott noted Monday that the inflation expectations have fallen significantly recently across a range of measures, and this is a concern for the Bank, and this will contribute to the need for low interest rate settings.

Late last week the central bank surprised markets with a 25 basis point rate cut to 2.25 percent and signaled more to come.
McDermott said there has been a "material decline" in inflation expectations and they risk becoming embedded in future wage and price decisions. He said that if the recent material decline in a broad range of inflation expectations measures continues, the Bank would need to reconsider the outlook for interest rates.

Elsewhere in Japan Reuters reported this morning that Japan's core machinery orders rose a more-than-expected 15.0 percent in January from the previous month, Cabinet Office data showed on Monday, in a sign that rising business investment could support economic growth.
This rise in core orders, a highly volatile data series regarded as an indicator of capital spending in the coming six to nine months, was much stronger than economists' median estimate for a 3.0 percent increase.
And compared with a year earlier, core orders, which exclude those of ships and electricity, rose 8.4 percent in January, versus a 3.6 percent decline seen by analysts.

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AceTraderFx Mar 15: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views (AUD/USD)

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views (AUD/USD)
15 Mar 2016 01:30GMT

AUD/USD - ...... The latest report from Australia's central bank RBA: The minutes suggested that there were "reasonable prospects" for continued economic growth and it was still too early to assess whether a bout of global market volatility early in the year foreshadowed something more sinister.
With low inflation, that would give it room to ease policy but only if it was "appropriate to lend support to demand", the Reserve Bank of Australia said in minutes of its March 1 policy review, where it kept the cash rate steady at a record low 2.0 percent for a 10th month running.

It continued that there had been further indications of a rebalancing of activity towards the non-mining sectors of the economy, more recent data had suggested that the economy had continued to grow at a moderate pace in early 2016.
Their Members judged that there were reasonable prospects for continued growth in the economy and that it was appropriate to leave the cash rate unchanged at an accommodative setting.

The RBA cited low interest rates, above-average employment growth and a depreciation of the exchange rate over the past couple of years as factors underpinning the economy. It made no mention of a recent rebound in the local dollar.
Over the period ahead, new informational should allow the Board to assess whether the improvement in labour market conditions was continuing and whether the recent financial turbulence presaged weaker global and domestic demand."

Members spent part of the meeting discussing China, Australia's single biggest export market.
They have observed that demographic changes and strong productivity growth had been key drivers of economic growth in China for some time, but these forces were now reversing and were likely to weigh on further growth as a result.
However, the process of urbanisation still had some way to run in China and that would tend to support growth in the working age population.
The RBA also noted that Chinese household incomes are likely to rise over time, creating long-run potential for Australia to increase exports of rural produce and services, including tourism, to China.

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