AceTraderFx Jun 27: Weekly/ Daily Technical Outlook & Trading Ideals on USD/CHF

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AceTraderFx Dec 24: Daily Technical Outlook & Trading Ideals on USD/CHF

DAILY USD/CHF TECHNICAL OUTLOOK
Last Update At 24 Dec 2014 00:00GMT

Trend Daily Chart
Up

Daily Indicators
Bearish divergences

21 HR EMA
0.9862

55 HR EMA
0.9839

Trend Hourly Chart
Up

Hourly Indicators
Bearish divergences

13 HR RSI
65

14 HR DMI
+ve

Daily Analysis
Resumption of MT uptrend

Resistance
1.0000 - Psychological lvl
0.9972 - 2012 peak
0.9924 - 80.9% proj. 0.9360-0.9818 fm 0.9554

Support
0.9805 - Mon's low
0.9785 - Last Fri's low
0.9722 - Last Thur's low

. USD/CHF - 0.9876 ... Although the greenback remained under pressure initially y'day n weakened to session low at 0.9826 in early European morning, price pared its losses n gained ahead of NY open. Intra-day rise accelerated n the pair rose to fresh 2-year peak at 0.9886 on upbeat U.S. GDP data.

. Looking at the bigger picture, dlr's aforesaid resumption of MT uptrend fm 2014 near 2-1/2 year trough at 0.8698 (Mar) to 0.9886 signals further gain to 0.9924 (being 80.9% projection of rise fm 0.9360 to 0.9818 measured fm 0.9554) wud be seen after initial consolidation. Abv 0.9924 wud extend twds 2012 peak at 0.9972, however, as daily oscillators' readings wud display prominent 'bearish divergences' on such move, sharp gain beyond there is unlikely to be seen this week n reckon psychological res at 1.0000 shud remain intact n yield a much-needed correction later. On the downside, only below 0.9785 (Mon's low) wud indicate a temp. top has been made n risk retracement twds 0.9722.

. Today, as current price is trading abv 21-hr n 55-hr emas, suggesting buying dlr on dips is still the way to go. Only below 0.9805 wud abort intra-day bullishness n risk stronger weakness twds 0.9785.

 

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AceTraderFx Jan 5: Weekly Technical Outlook & Trading Ideals on USD/CHF

WEEKLY USD/CHF TECHNICAL OUTLOOK
Last Update At 05 Jan 2015 00:32GMT

Trend Daily Chart
Up

Daily Indicators
Bearish divergences

21 HR EMA
1.0009

55 HR EMA
0.9970

Trend Hourly Chart
Up

Hourly Indicators
Easing fm o/bot

13 HR RSI
70

14 HR DMI
ve+

Daily Analysis
Choppy conoslidation with mild upside bias

Resistance
1.0235 - 1.618 times ext. of 0.9554-0.9848 fm 0.8759
1.0165 - Intra-day high (AUS)
1.0110 - Chart res

Support
0.9920 - Dec 30 high, now sup
0.9868 - Tue's low
0.9844 - Mon's low

. USD/CHF - 1.0042 ... The greenback continued its recent winning streak n penetrated key res at 0.9972 (2012 high) at the 1st trading day of 2015 in NY due to dlr's broad-based rally, price rallied abv the 'psychological' res at 1.0000 to 1.0019 at NY close, then briefly but sharply to 1.0165 in AUS today.

. Let's look at the bigger picture 1st, dlr's breach of 0.9972 res (this was the reaction high of the LT upmove fm 2011 record low at 0.7072) confirms aforesaid uptrend has finally resumed n price is en route to 1.0331 this week, being 50% proj. of 0.7072-0.9972 measured fm 0.8698, however, as daily technical indicators may display 'bearish divergences' on such move, reckon 1.0490 (61.8% proj.) wud cap upside in the 1st half of Jan. Therefore, buying dlr on dips for subsequent gain to abovementioned upside targets is recommended n only a daily close below 0.9920 (prev. res, now sup) wud be the 1st signal a temporary top is in place n risk stronger correction twd 0.8799 (Dec 25 low on Reuters).

. Today, as dlr's current price is trading abv the 21-hr & 55-hr emas, buying the buck on dips is favoured n only below 0.9961 wud dampen bullisness, risk possible retracement twd 0.9920.

 

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AceTraderFx Jan 9: Daily Technical Outlook & Trading Ideals on USD/CHF

DAILY USD/CHF TECHNICAL OUTLOOK
Last Update At 08 Jan 2015 23:50GMT

Trend Daily Chart
Up

Daily Indicators
Rising

21 HR EMA
1.0139

55 HR EMA
1.0107

Trend Hourly Chart
Up

Hourly Indicators
Bearish divergences

13 HR RSI
55

14 HR DMI
+ve

Daily Analysis
Marginal rise b4 correction

Resistance
1.0293 - 80.9% proj. of 0.9844-1.0165 fm 1.0033
1.0235 - 1.618 times ext. of 0.9554-0.9848 fm 0.8759
1.0217 - Y'day's 4-year high

Support
1.0127 - Wed's NY low
1.0095 - Wed's low
1.0033 - Mon's Asian low

. USD/CHF - 1.0184 ... The greenback continued to trade with a firm bias in Asia y'day n then climbed abv Wed's high at 1.0176 to a fresh 4-year peak at 1.0217 ahead of NY open on selloff in the euro. However, price pared intra-day gains n retreated to 1.0162 in NY morning b4 rebounding in NY afternoon.

. Looking at the hourly n daily charts, y'day's rally abv Wed's peak at 1.0176 suggests the MT uptrend fm Mar's 2-1/2 year trough at 0.8698 remains in progress n upside bias remains for further gain twds 1.0235, this is 1.618 times extension of MT intermediate rise fm 0.9554-0.9848 measured fm 0.8759. Abv wud extend marginally, however, prominent 'bearish divergences' on hourly indicators shud prevent strg hain n reckon dlr's upside wud falter well below 1.0293 (80.9% proj. of 0.9844-1.0165 measured fm 1.0033) n yield a much-needed correction. On the downside, only below Wed's low at 1.0095 wud indicate a temporary top is in place n risk stronger retracement twd 1.0033 later.

. Today, in view of abv analysis, we are buying dlr on dips for gain to 1.0235 n only below hourly sup at 1.0127 wud abort intra-day bullishness on the greenback n risk stronger retracement but sup 1.0095 shud hold in 1st testing.

 

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AceTraderFx Jan 26: Weekly Technical Outlook & Trading Ideals USD/CHF

WEEKLY USD/CHF TECHNICAL OUTLOOK
Last Update At 26 Jan 2015 00:29GMT

Trend Daily Chart
Down

Daily Indicators
Falling

21 HR EMA
0.8766

55 HR EMA
0.8728

Trend Hourly Chart
Near term up

Hourly Indicators
Neutral

13 HR RSI
57

14 HR DMI
+ve

Daily Analysis
Consolidation with upside bias

Resistance
0.9000 - Psychological
0.8903 - 70.7% r of 0.9131-0.8352
0.8838 - Last Tue's high

Support
0.8751 - Last Thur's high
0.8682 - Last Fri's low
0.8500 - Wed's low

. USD/CHF - 0.8783.. Dlr went through 'roller-coaster' week last week. Price rebounded to 0.8838 on Tue due to renewed cross-buying of chf, however, decline in eur/usd pressured the pair to 0.8500 Wed b4 rising again due to resumption of downtrend in eur/usd, dlr later climbed back to 0.8820 on Fri.

. Looking at the bigger picture, despite dlr's free fall fm Jan's fresh 2-1/2 year peak of 1.0240 to a 4-month trough of 0.7360 after SNB surprised the market by unpegging the 1.20 franc cap, subsequent swift bounce has left a spike bottom formation on the daily chart, suggesting a major low has been formed. As mentioned in recent updates, although market may test dlr's downside, as long as 0.8326 sup holds, choppy sideways trading is seen b4 prospect of another rise. A weekly close abv 0.9131 (prev. reaction high) wud add credence to abv view n yield further gain to 0.9396 (being 70.7% r of 1.0240-0.7360). On the downside, only below 0.8326 wud dampen bullish view on dlr n may risk weakness twd 0.8000.

. Today, despite euro's selloff to fresh 11-year low ahead of Asian open, decline in eur/chf limited dlr's gain to 0.8824, suggesting choppy sideways move is in store. We're standing aside initially b4 giving a recommendation.

 

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AceTraderFx Apr 24 : Daily Technical Outlook & Trading USD/CHF

DAILY USD/CHF TECHNICAL OUTLOOK
Last Update At 24 Apr 2015 00:44GMT

Trend Daily Chart
Sideways

Daily Indicators
Falling

21 HR EMA
0.9589

55 HR EMA
0.9600

Trend Hourly Chart
Near term down

Hourly Indicators
Falling

13 HR RSI
35

14 HR DMI
-ve

Daily Analysis
Consolidation b4 recent decline resumes

Resistance
0.9670 - Y'day's European high
0.9627 Y'day's European morning low
0.9602 - 38.2% r of 0.9719-0.9530

Support
0.9530 - Y'day's low
0.9480 - 03 Apr low
0.9450 - 38.2% r of 0.8352-1.0129

. USD/CHF - 0.9556... Although the greenback briefly rose to session high at 0.9719 at Asian open, dlr quickly reversed gains n fell to 0.9627 in Europe deu to selling in eur/chf cross. Intra-day decline accelerated in NY morning on downbeat U.S. data, dlr later tumbled to as as low as 0.9530 in NY afternoon.

. Looking at the hourly n daily charts, despite y'day's rise to 0.9719, subsequent sell off suggests recent choppy trading inside the established broad range of 0.9863-0.9480 wud continue with downside bias n below daily 0.9480 sup wud confirm decline fm 1.0129 (Mar peak) to correct early rise fm 2015 trough at 0.7360 (Jan) to pressure price to 0.9450 (being a 'minimum' 38.2% of the intermediate rise fm 0.8352) n then 0.9240 (50% r) later next week. Therefore, selling dlr on recovery in anticipation of weakness to above mentioned downside targets is recommended. On the upside, only a daily close abv 0.9625 wud 'prolong' the volatile trading inside 0.9480-0.9863 range n risk wud shift to upside for another rise twd 0.9719.

. Today, as current price is trading below 21-hr & 55-hr emas, selling dlr on recovery is the way to go as upside shud falter well below 0.9625.

 

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AceTraderFx May 28: Daily Technical Outlook & Trading USD/CHF

DAILY USD/CHF TECHNICAL OUTLOOK
Last Update At 28 May 2015 00:07GMT

Trend Daily Chart
Sideways

Daily Indicators
Turning up

21 HR EMA
0.9504

55 HR EMA
0.9489

Trend Hourly Chart
Up

Hourly Indicators
Bearish divergences

13 HR RSI
50

14 HR DMI
+ve

Daily Analysis
Consolidation b4 marginal rise

Resistance
0.9599 - Apr 28 high
0.9561 - 61.8% r of 0.9863-0.9072
0.9545 - Y'day's high

Support
0.9460 - Tue's European low
0.9406 - Mon's low
0.9378 - Last Fri's Asian high (now sup)

. USD/CHF - 0.9499... The pair also swung wildly in tandem with eur/usd in opposite direction on Wed. Despite hitting a 3-week high of 0.9539 in Australia, intra-day rebound in eur/usd knocked price lower to 0.9468 in Europe b4 rising to session high of 0.9545 in NY but only to retreat back to 0.9483 later.
. The daily outlook on dlr remains similar to our recent updates. Last week's rally abv previous res at 0.9359 signals early decline fm Mar's peak at 1.0129 has made a low at 0.9072 (May's 3-month low) n bullishness remains for further headway to 0.9599/0.9600, this is chart res n 50% r of 1.0129-0.9072 respectively, break there would retain upside bias for subsequent gain to 0.9725 (61.8% r fm 1.0129) early next month. As daily technical are turning up, buying dlr on dips this week in anticipation of upmove to aforesaid targets is favoured n only a daily close below 0.9286 would suggest temporary top is in place, risk stronger pullback to 0.9200/10 b4 rebound.

. Today, as Wed's 3-week high was accompanied by 'bearish divergences' on the hourly indicators, subsequent retreat suggests consolidation with downside bias wud be seen but below 0.9468 needed to extend weakness to 0.9416/20.

 

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AceTraderFx Jul 13: Weekly Technical Outlook & Trading USD/CHF

WEEKLY USD/CHF TECHNICAL OUTLOOK
Last Update At 12 Jul 2015 23:51GMT

Trend Daily Chart
Sideways

Daily Indicators
Rising

21 HR EMA
0.9409

55 HR EMA
0.9432

Trend Hourly Chart
Near term down

Hourly Indicators
Turning up

13 HR RSI
46

14 HR DMI
-ve

Daily Analysis
Consolidation with downside bias

Resistance
0.9517 - Last Thur's high
0.9461 - Last Thur's NY low
0.9422 - Last Fri's NY high

Support
0.9330 - Last Fri's low
0.9290 - 61.8% r of 0.9150-0.9517
0.9244 - Jun 29 low

. USD/CHF - 0.9402... Dlr swung from gain to loss in volatile trading last week. Although initial weakness in euro helped dlr ratchet higher, price rose to a 1-month peak of 0.9517 Thur b4 coming off to 0.9330 in Europe on Fri.

. On the daily picture, although dlr's erratic rise fm Jun's 0.9150 trough to 0.9517 last Thur signals re-test of May's high at 0.9545 is on the cards, subsequent retreat to 0.9330 suggests further consolidation is in store b4 prospect of such a move n a break there would confirm early upmove fm May's 3-month trough at 0.9072 to retrace MT decline fm 1.0129 (May) has finally resumed, then price would be en route to 0.9600 n then twd 0.9725 later this month, being 'natural' 50% r & 'dynamic' 61.8% r respectively of aforesaid fall. On the downside, a daily close below Fri's 0.9330 would dampen abv bullish scenario on dlr, then risk wud shift to the downside for a retracement of the rise fm 0.9150 to 0.9290 (61.8% r), break may extend to 0.9244 but 0.9150 should remain intact.

. Today, initial choppy trading abv said Fri's 0.9330 low is in store, as long as 0.9461 (prev. sup, now res) holds, downside bias remains, below 0.9361 would bring re-test of 0.9330, then twd 0.9290. Abv 0.9461 may risk 0.9500/05.

 

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AceTraderFx Aug 25: Daily Technical Outlook & Trading USD/CHF


DAILY USD/CHF TECHNICAL OUTLOOK
Last Update At 25 Aug 2015 01:25GMT

Trend Daily Chart
Sideways

Daily Indicators
Turning down

21 HR EMA
0.9365

55 HR EMA
0.9451

Trend Hourly Chart
Down

Hourly Indicators
Rising fm o/s

13 HR RSI
41

14 HR DMI
-ve

Daily Analysis
Resumption of decline

Resistance
0.9504 - Last Fri's hourly res
0.9457 - Y'day's European res
0.9393 - Y'day's NY res

Support
0.9300 - Y'day's hourly sup
0.9257 - Y'day's low
0.9150 - 18 Jun low

. USD/CHF - 0.9341... Despite a brief rebound to 0.9457 in Europe y'day, the greenback met renewed selling interest n tumbled to a near 2-month low at 0.9257 in NY on risk aversion b4 staging a recovery to 0.9393 later.

. Looking at daily picture, y'day's selloff to 0.9257 confirms the upmove from May's bottom at 0.9072 has ended at 0.9903 in Aug n consolidation with downside bias would be seen for 0.9250, being 61.8% projection of 1.0129-0.9072 measured fm 0.9903. Below wud extend weakness marginally, however, as hourly oscillators would be in o/sold territory on such move, steep fall below there is unlikely to be seen n reckon key daily sup at 0.9150 should remain intact this week n yield a much-needed correction. Therefore, selling on recovery is favored n only abv res at 0.9457 would indicate a temporary low has been made n shift risk to the upside for a stronger retracement twd 0.9504 early next month.

. Today, although dlr has staged a recovery fm y'day's low at 0.9257 n further choppy trading is envisaged initially, reckon 0.9416 (38.2% r of near term fall fm 0.9674-0.9257) should limit upside n yield resumption of MT decline for a re-test of aforesaid sup later today.

 

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AceTraderFx Sept 21: Weekly Technical & Trading Outlook USD/CHF

WEEKLY USD/CHF TECHNICAL OUTLOOK
Last Update At 20 Sep 2015 23:25GMT

Trend Daily Chart
Sideways

Daily Indicators
Neutral

21 HR EMA
0.9644

55 HR EMA
0.9651

Trend Hourly Chart
Sideways

Hourly Indicators
Rising

13 HR RSI
67

14 HR DMI
+ve

Daily Analysis
Consolidation with upside bias

Resistance
0.9825 - Sep's high (9th)
0.9764 -Last week's high (Tue)
0.9726 - Last Thur's high

Support
0.9631 - Last Fri's Aust. high (now sup)
0.9592 - Last Thur's low
0.9528 - Last Wed's 3-wek loow

. USD/CHF - 0.9692... Despite extending early fall to 0.9666 last Mon, dlr rebounded to 0.9764 n swung wildly b4 tanking to 0.9592 on Thur after Fed kept rate unchanged. Price then fell to 0.9528 b4 rising to 0.9705 in NY on Fri.

. Let's look at the bigger picture 1st, although dlr's erratic fall fm Aug's 0.9825 high signals recent strg upmove fm Aug's bottom at 0.9257 has made a top there, having said that, Fri's rally fm 0.9528 due to broad-based rebound in the greenback signals said pullback fm 0.9825 has possibly ended n consolidation with upside bias is in store, abv strg res at 0.9763/64 would add credence to this view, then re-test of 0.9825 would follow where a break there would bode well for dlr to head twd major res at 0.9903 (Aug's peak) later this month. In view of abv analysis, buying dlr on dips this week is recommended n only below 0.9592 would dampen bullish outlook, risk weakness twd 0.9528.

. Today, dlr's intra-day rally fm 0.9528 to as high as 0.9705 suggests intra-day upside bias remains for further gain after consolidation, however, as hourly indicators' readings would be in o/bot territory, res at 0.9764 (last week's high) should hold on 1st testing n yield retreat.