AceTraderFx Sept 2: Intra-Day Market Moving News & Views GBP/USD

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Intra-Day Market Moving New and Views

02 Sep 2014 08:32GMT

GBP/USD - .... Cable has stabilised after intra-day sell off from 1.6605 (Asia) to as low as 1.6554 in European morning due initially dlr's strength at Asian open, then broad-based selling of sterling vs euro & yen.

The fact that price is unable to stage a short-covering rebound after release of a much stronger-than-expected U.K. construction PMI (Aug actual came in at 64.0 vs forecast of 61.4 & prev. reading of 62.4) suggests the no. of sterling bears is greater than the bulls. Looks like sterling bears are targeting stops below last Mon's 4-1/2 month low at 1.6535. For now, offers are tipped at 1.6585/95 n more abv with stop touted abv 1.6615. A mixture of bids n stops is reported near 1.6535-30, suggesting selling cable on recovery is the way to go.

Although sterling held well yesterday after a surprise downbeat U.K. manufacturing PMI where Aug reading dropped fm 54.8 to 52.25. We have construction PMI due out today n then the important services PMI on Wed.

The U.K. Telegraph reported a weaker outlook for the manufacturing sector has led some analysts to suggest that the best days of the U.K. recovery have now passed. Poor manufacturing data could signal the end of a hot streak for U.K. growth.

The survey pointed to a "broad slowdown" that is underway in the UK's manufacturing sector, according to Markit, who compiled the report. Rob Dobson, senior economist at Markit, said: "It is also becoming increasingly evident that UK industry is not immune to the impacts of rising geopolitical and global market uncertainty, especially when they affect economic growth and business confidence in our largest trading partner the eurozone."

With the Scottish referendum on Sep 18 a little more than 2-week away, more news n latest poll results will be reported. Reuters reported the British government said on Monday it was not drawing up contingency plans for a surprise vote in favour of Scottish independence.

One of the major debates has raised big questions such as what currency an independent Scotland would use and what would happen to Britain's Scotland-based nuclear submarines. But the govt on Mon refused to discuss how it would handle a split.
"No such work (is being) undertaken," PM David Cameron's official spokesman told reporters when asked if the govt had drawn up contingency plans for a "Yes" vote. "The govt's entire focus is on making the case for the UK staying together."

 

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AceTraderFx Sept 8: Intra-Day Market Moving News & Views

Intra-Day Market Moving New and Views GBP/USD


08 Sep 2014
GBP/USD - ..... Cable was the biggest mover in Asian morning and continues to take centre stage at European open. Short-term specs (European early birds) were spotted selling sterling broadly earlier and intra-day sup at 1.6165 (NZ) gave way without heavy bashing, the pound touched a fresh near 10-month low of 1.6145 (Reuters).

Despite intra-day resumption of recent downtrend, as price is trading nearly 2 cents below Fri's close of around 1.6331, further steep fall looks unlikely n risk is seen for another corrective bounce back twd Asian 1.6333 high later in the day.

Another piece of sterling-bearish news: British manufacturers are cautious about increasing levels of capital spending, a trade group said on Mon, raising questions as to whether a recent pick-up in business investment is sustainable in the long term.

A new survey by the EEF manufacturers' group n Lombard Asset Finance (conducted between Apr 30 n May 14 with 173 companies responding) found that most firms had only moderate investment plans which focused largely on replacing outdated technology.

Business investment, key to boosting productivity, has grown for 5 quarters in a row but still lags well behind pre-recession levels and is below spending in other countries. Only 1 in 3 manufacturing firms taking part in the survey said they will invest the same on plant n machinery in the next 2 years as they did in the previous 2.

Earlier, the poll conducted by YouGov for the Sun Times forced those who had brushing off a lead by the supporters for Scottish independence eat humble pies at their breakfast tables yesterday.

Reuters reported showed supporters of independence had taken their first opinion poll lead since the referendum campaign began. With less than 2 weeks to go before the vote, the poll put the "Yes" to independence campaign on 51% n the "No: camp on 49%, overturning a 22-point lead for the unionist position in just a month.

British FinMin George Osborne said on Sun plans would be set out in the coming days to give Scotland more autonomy on tax, spending n welfare if Scots vote against independence in a historic referendum on Sept. 18. PM David Cameron had, ironically, vetoed a third ballot option for greater devolution, betting that the stark choice of yes or no to independence would deliver a clear victory for the status quo as cautious voters turned away from an uncertain future.

Osborne told the BBC "You will see in the next few days a plan of action to give more powers to Scotland ... Then Scotland will have the best of both worlds. They will both avoid the risks of separation but have more control over their own destiny, which is where I think many Scots want to be."

 

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AceTraderFx Sept 10: Intra-Day Market Moving News & Views GBP/USD

Intra-Day Market Moving New and Views

10 Sep 2014
GBP/USD - ...... The pound swung wildly on Tuesday. Although short-covering lifted the cable from yesterday's Asian fresh near 10-month bottom at 1.6065 and price rose to 1.6157 in Europe after hawkish comments from BOE governor Mark Carney, cable fell to a session low of 1.6060 in NY midday before staging another rebound to 1.6126 near the close and then to 1.6139 at Asian open.

Sterling is expected to gain respite ahead of the U.K. Inflation Report hearing (13:45GMT), buying cable on dips for intra-day trade is recommended. However, position traders can look to sell on further gain as market jitters ahead of the Sept. 18 Scottish referendum should pressure the pair lower later this week.
Bids from various accounts are noted at 1.6110-10 and then 1.6085 with stops below 1.6060 (not large).
Offers are tipped at 1.6135/40 and more at 1.615/60 with mixture of offers and stops near 1.6180/90.

 

[acetraderfx]

AceTraderFx Sept 19: Intra-Day News & Views (GBP/USD) & data to be released today

Intra-Day Market Moving New and Views

19 Sep 2014 01:10GMT

GBP/USD - .... Cable continues to climb to intra-day high of 1.6523 after 2nd local council result (total 32) from Orkney Islands showed 'No' won by 67% vs 'Yes' at 33%.

Reuters reported results from smaller councils will appear before larger ones (for obvious reasons), big cities of Glasgow, Edinburgh & Aberdeen are expected to come around 04:00GMT.

Earlier, Cable rises again in Asia on Bloomberg TV news reporting the 1st local council (32 in total) results from Clackmannashire which showed 'No' won by 53.8% vs 'Yes' at 46.2% in the Scottish Independence referendum.

Friday will see the release of Germany's producer prices, eurozone current account, Canada's core CPI, CPI inflation and wholesale trade and U.S. leading index.

 

[acetraderfx]

AceTraderFx Sept 22: Intra-Day News & Views GBP/USD

Intra-Day Market Moving New and Views

22 Sep 2014
GBP/USD - ...... Despite cable's retreat after intra-day rebound from 1.6288 (Aust.) to 1.6365 in Asia morning, price found support at 1.6334 shortly after European open due to renewed cross-buying in sterling vs euro n yen.

Buying interest is seen at 1.6330-20 with demand fm various accounts noted at 1.6305/00. On the upside, Offers are noted at 1.6365/70 n then 1.6380 with mixture of offers n stops placed at 1.6400-10.

Last Friday Cable swung wildly n to a lesser extent in today, Monday's trading.
Despite an initial rally to 1.6525 in Asia, price tumbled to as low as 1.6284 near NY close on long liquidation as investors locked in gains after more voters in Scotland's independence referendum elected to remain inside the United Kingdom. Price briefly rebounded to 1.6340 in Mon's NZ n then retreated to 1.6385 b4 climbing back to 1.6364 in Tokyo lunch session.

With the referendum issue out of the way, investors are turning their attention back towards the Bank of England's monetary policy stance n therefore, choppy range trading inside 1.6300-1.6400 is expected today.
Offers are noted at 1.6360-70 n around 1.6380 with mixture of offers n stops placed at 1.6400-10. On the downside, bids are located at 1.6285-80 with stops below there.

On Sunday, U.K. PM David Cameron's office said:
'Scotland will get more autonomy with no "ifs or buts"', after Scottish leader Alex Salmond accused him and other politicians of tricking Scots out of independence.
'It is the people who were persuaded to vote "No" who were misled, who were gulled, who were tricked effectively,' Salmond told BBC TV, saying he thought last-minute promises of greater powers and continued higher-than-average funding, which he said were already unravelling, had swayed the vote's outcome.
Cameron's office responded by saying the government would stick to its promises. Miliband, leader of the Labour party, said on Sun he disagreed with the proposals because he thought more time and consultation was needed to work out a solution to 'the English question' accusing his rival of playing politics.
He told BBC 'You know we've spent two years trying to keep our country together. Let's have a proper constitutional convention, let's look at these issues; Let's not drive our country apart because David Cameron thinks it's a sort of opportunity for him to do it.'