ATFX Market Updates 2019

[Kelly Yeung]

Amazon 3Q Preview
Amazon will share its Q3 earnings results on October 24, 2019. Amazon is the largest e-commerce platform but also the largest public cloud provider in the world, and the third-largest digital ad platform behind Facebook (FB) and Google (GOOGL). Amazon continues to launch new products and services and is targeting growth markets such as China and India for expansion. Amazon and Walmart-owned Flipkart managed to increase their online sales by 30% YoY. This happened during India’s six-day festival season, a holiday that is similar to Black Friday in the US.

Amazon has successfully diversified its sales base. AMZN e-commerce business and third-party seller services account for 71% of its sales, and its cloud computing business is quickly gaining traction. Amazon’s cloud sector should continue to expand as the company invests heavily in infrastructure. Amazon introduced the all-new Echo Show 5, which features a compact design, 5.5-inch display, rich sound, HD camera, and built-in camera shutter. Amazon continues to grow Alexa’s features and capabilities. Amazon Go, is a checkout-free experience enabled by our Just Walk Out Technology, and has now expanded to New York City with two new stores. Amazon Go has thirteen stores open in Seattle, Chicago, San Francisco, and New York.



AMZN Stock Performance
Amazon (AMZN) stock has lost 13.4% after its second-quarter earnings report on July 25, 2019. The fall came by lower-than-expected earnings, volatile equity markets, and antitrust allegations.

AMZN is up 16.36% year-to-date, which is lower than the S&P 500 (SPY) return of 17.1% in 2019. In the trailing-12-month period, AMZN has fallen 3.97% compared to the 2.2% gain in the S&P 500.

Amazon reported 2Q mixed second-quarter results, topping sales forecasts but missing on earnings estimates. The EPS came in at $5.22 vs. $5.29, the revenue came in at $63.4 billion vs. $62.5 billion. Excluding the $814 million unfavourable impact from year-over-year changes in foreign exchange rates throughout the quarter, net sales increased 21% compared with second-quarter 2018. Amazon had a net margin of 4.80% and a return on equity of 26.27%. The operating income increased to $3.1 billion in the 2Q, compared with operating income of $3.0 billion in second-quarter 2018.

Third Quarter 2019 Guidance
Amazon forecast its revenues to grow year-over-year by 17%–24% to $66 billion–$70 billion in the third quarter. In the second quarter, Amazon’s revenue rose 20% YoY to $63.4 billion.

However, Amazon forecast its operating earnings to drop from $3.7 billion in Q3 2018 to $2.1 billion–$3.1 billion in Q3 2019. The company considered higher transportation costs in its guidance. In the second quarter, Amazon’s operating income rose 3% to $3.1 billion.

• Net sales are expected to be between $66.0 billion and $70.0 billion, or to grow between 17% and 24% compared with the third quarter 2018. This guidance anticipates an unfavorable impact of approximately 30 basis points from foreign exchange rates.
• Operating income is expected to be between $2.1 billion and $3.1 billion, compared with $3.7 billion in third quarter 2018.

In the last five years, AMZN has been able to grow its earnings at an annual rate of 108.6%. Amazon’s share is trading at a forward PE multiple of 72x, which might seem high at first glance. However, the company’s robust expected earnings growth rate supports this multiple.



AMZN Technical Analysis
Shares of Amazon had lost 4.1% over the past month, lagging the Retail-Wholesale sector's loss of 1.96% and the S&P 500's loss of 0.91% in that time. AMZN’s short term momentum is bearish as it trades below all major daily moving averages. Immediate support for the stock stands at 1,721 the low from October 14th hile more offers will be met at 1,680 the low from October 3rd. On the flipside immediate resistance stands at 1,780 the 50-day moving average, while next strong resistance stands at 1,838 the 100-day moving average. Amazon needs to break above the descending trendline in order to regain the positive momentum, and the 3Q results might be the catalyst.

About Amazon
Amazon.com, Inc engages in the retail sale of consumer products and subscriptions in North America and internationally. The company operates through three segments: North America, International, and Amazon Web Services (AWS). It sells merchandise and content purchased for resale from third-party sellers through physical stores and online stores.



Information provided by InvestingCube.com and ATFX, Market Strategist: Nikolas Papas

Legal: AT Global Markets (UK) Limited is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) in the United Kingdom. FCA registration number (760555). Registered Office: 32 Cornhill, London, EC3V 3SG. Company No. 09827091

 

[Kelly Yeung]

ATFX-A Global Leader in Online Trading
ATFX Market Outlook, 2019 Oct 22

Personal opinions today:

Brexit deal has been rejected by the house of Commons. If the British prime minister moves again this week, the pound is likely to rise again. However, the UK still has not approved the Brexit agreement, the risk of a fall in the pound, the expected adjustment of the euro and pound. Global stock markets could suffer. Risk aversion again and falling stock markets are likely to lift gold and silver prices again. But in the short term, the rise in gold prices has been limited by the easing of trade relations between China and US. Oil prices are expected to benefit. The market will wait and see tomorrow morning when API crude oil inventory data is released. If inventories fall, the price of crude oil will be more positive.

European central bank (ECB) monetary policy is widely expected to remain unchanged after its President Mario Draghi attended his last policy meeting and press conference on Thursday. But the ECB's new President, Christine, will take over on November 1, and the ECB has since formally restarted its TLTRO program in hopes of reviving the Eurozone's economy and opening up opportunities for recovery. Coming this ECB meeting, can again put forward the relevant research and release the implementation time to be watched by the market. If the ECB will come up with a plan, which is believed to be good for the future of the European economy, the euro has the support of investors. But normally, before something like this happens, the euro is expected to come downward this week before the decision. If the Fed cuts rates early, the dollar will fall, which could bullish the euro and, more likely, other currencies against the dollar and gold.

[Important financial data and events]
Note: * is the degree of importance

Tokyo stock exchange will be closed
18:00 CBI industrial orders in the UK **
20:30 Canada retail sales ***
22:00 U.S. existing homes sales **
22:00 U.S. Richmond fed manufacturing index **
The next day 4:30 U.S. API crude oil stocks change ***

Today's suggestion:

Euro to dollar
1.1165/1.1175 resistance
1.1100/1.1090 support
Brexit failure, bearish for euro. Yesterday, the British prime minister put a vote for Brexit again,but it was rejected, which is bearish for the euro. It is believed that the news of Brexit deal will continue to affect the pound and indirectly affect the euro. In addition, this week the European central bank monetary policy decisions, bearish sentiment, the euro may fall, adjust to 1.10 levels. If the Fed releases interest rate cut remarks, the euro will be bullish, which is likely to test 1.12.

Pound to dollar
1.3005/1.3055 resistance
1.2955/1.2905 support
The Brexit agreement submitted by the British prime minister to the British parliament was rejected by the speaker of the British parliament, which was bearish for the pound and failed to break through the resistance level of the rally wave 1.3005. If the British parliament again rejects the Brexit deal, British PM seeks a second referendum or the European commission does not give a delay to the Brexit deal, it may lead to bearish on the pound deeply. For references, 1.2840 is the current rebound wave support level, is concerned by the market.

Australian dollar to US dollar
0.6890/0.6905 resistance
0.6840/0.6825 support
Trade relations between China and the United States continue to improve. Representatives of the trade consultation announced the success of the first round of the negotiated agreement, which eased the investment sentiment and benefited the Australian and New Zealand dollars. But technically, last month's high of 0.6890 will be an important resistance level reference, currently maintain observation, beware of breakthrough failure, trend adjustment. If the Fed releases interest rate cut comments, bearish dollar, bullish Australian and New Zealand dollar.

Dollar to Japanese Yen
108.85/108.95 resistance
108.40/108.25 support
The Brexit deal failed to pass British parliament, the investment climate failed to increase and the dollar rose against the yen. Fortunately, improved trade relations between China and the United States led Dow and Nikkei futures to continue to rise, while the USDJPY may follow the stock market up to test 109 key resistance. But if Dow futures fall, the USDJPY will follow the trend. Technically, the USDJPY 108.95 is the current reference resistance. If the Fed makes interest rate cuts, it could be bearish for the dollar, but could bullish stocks market. It could still be bullish for the USDJPY.

U.S. dollar to Canadian dollar
1.3135/1.3150 resistance
1.3065/1.3050 support
The Canadian dollar rose after the Canadian election. Crude oil prices remain $52 support, crude oil prices rose, indirectly bullish Canadian dollar. The market focused on U.S. API crude oil stocks, estimated to be down from last week, bullish oil prices and the Canadian dollar. Technically, the USDCAD could return to 1.32 if crude oil futures prices fall after the USDCAD test on 1.31 supports the breakout. A Fed rate cut would be a bullish for crude oil prices and the Canadian dollar.

United States crude oil futures
54.10/54.40 resistance
53.15/52.80 support
News of the failure of the British parliament to vote on a deal to leave the European Union had been bearish for crude oil, and the price of the oil fell below the 52 dollar level. From fundamentals to apply the technical analysis, crude oil prices at or below 52 May be supported by investors, and the possibility of building long positions at these levels is noteworthy. The market is waiting to see if API crude oil inventories fall as expected, and crude oil prices are bullish in the short term. A Fed rate cut would help crude oil prices.

Gold
1490/1492 resistance
1481/1479 support
The successful trade talks and improved trade relations between China and the United States have bullish the stock market, while gold demand has dropped and gold prices have fallen. But with the Brexit deal not passed by the British parliament, the European central bank (ECB) raising interest rates and the Fed expected to cut interest rates, money could flow back into the gold market again, sending gold prices higher. Technically, it is worth paying attention to and referring to the Dow futures volatility and trend, how to drive the gold price trend and direction. If Dow futures fall, Asian stocks fall and gold falls at different times. Starting at 2 PM, watch the London gold market open, gold prices may rise in response to the above mentioned information.

U.S. Dow Jones industrial average futures US30
26940/27020 resistance
26720/26660 support
Dow futures failed to break through 27,000 points after Brexit failed to pass the British parliament. Also, U.S. economic data failed to meet market growth expectations. At present, the main support for the stock market, the first is the success of China and US trade negotiations. The second is that the federal reserve may cut interest rates. These two key points are likely to support the Dow futures move higher. Technically, Dow futures could still move higher if they maintain 26660 support.

BTCUSD:
8600/ 8850 resistance
7885 / 7655 support
As US economy slowdown, FOMC would consider cut Fed fund rate. It is supposed bullish for crypto currencies, such as Bitcoin and other popular crypto currencies. After the weekend, the Brexit deal failed, the the crypto market could demand increasing. Technically, the bitcoin price support at US7885. Assuming the bitcoin price as followed the gold price. If FOMC and ECB would cut interest rate, bitcoin price could rise further.

Enjoy trading! The content is for reference only. Please do ensure that you understand the risk.

Information provided by AT Global Market, Chief Analyst of Asia Pacific: Martin Lam
Registered Australian Accountant/ Certified Professional Manager / Certified Financial Advisor Experienced Investor / Media Market Commentator Martin Lam has Over 17 years’ experience in global investment market. Familiar with the worldwide stock indices, precious metals such Gold and Silver, Crude oil and Forex. He operated Martin Currency Trading Company and had partnership with a number of well-known international financial corporations and institutions. Before he join ATFX, he was TeleTrade Greater China development and Sales Director. Mr. Lam attends Hong Kong Now TV and China CCTV finance channel once a week. He also had regularly invited by different media, such as DBC Digital Financial Channel, Hong Kong Economic Times, The Standard, Ming Pao to share his experience to trade in Forex, Precious metals, Crude oil and worldwide stock indices.

Legal: AT Global Markets Limited (ATGM, registration number 24226 IBC 2017). ATGM is an International Business Company in Saint Vincent and the Grenadines.

 

[Kelly Yeung]

For more analysis check out, please click the below link:


Market Analysis by ATFX Global Chief Market Strategist - Alejandro Zambrano

ATFX is a co-brand shared by a number of different entities globally including:

• AT Global Markets (UK) Limited in the United Kingdom regulated by FCA;
• ATFX Global Markets (CY) Limited in Cyprus regulated by CySEC;
• AT Global Markets Limited registered in the Financial Services Authority (FSA) in Saint Vincent and the Grenadines;
• AT Global Markets Intl Ltd in Mauritus is licensed by the Financial Services Commission (FSC) and;
• AT Capital Markets Limited is a rep office of ATFX Global Markets (CY) Limited regulated by Financial Services Regulatory Authority (FSRA) and CySEC. AT Capital Markets Limited deals with Professional clients only.

 

[Kelly Yeung]

Draghi's last European monetary policy meeting, is it brings anything new?

Draghi will formally end his presidency of the European Central Bank by the end of October to hand over Mrs Lagarde to the presidency of the European Central Bank, as the first woman to hold such a high position.

Eurozone headline inflation has been consolidating lately around 1.0% levels and fell to 0.8% in September, lower than in the early months of this year, when it was around 1.5%.

Perhaps this can be explained by the decline in energy prices. But overall inflation readings are still not promising. While indicators show limited increases in labour costs supported by improvements in labour markets, it is understood that the impact of these gains on inflation may take longer. Given the latest ECB economic forecast, annual inflation in the eurozone could be 1.2% in 2019, 1.0% in 2020 and 1.5% in 2021.

The ECB's last meeting in September saw a package of unconventional measures where the rate of deposit facility was cut to -0.5% from -0.4%.

In an attempt by the European Central Bank to push banks to more lending instead of depositing excess liquidity with the central banks in the euro area.

Taking into account that the ECB has added a two-tiered deposit facility mechanism. We can explain it as the following, If the bank maintains a surplus of reserves that exceeds six times the required reserve, the negative interest rate will be calculated by -0.5%, in the same time the deposit facility rate will be 0.0% for the bank's reserve less than the 6x threshold. So actually, the ECB has added a new tool to his monetary policy instruments by adjusting that threshold to become a lite brake to increase or reduce liquidity in the European banking system.

The reducing of the deposit facility was supported by another decision to restart net asset purchases under the asset purchase program (APP) at a monthly rate of 20 billion euros as of November 1.

According to Mario Draghi's speech on October 19 at the 40th meeting of the IMF's International Monetary and Financial Committee, the ECB expects these purchases to continue as long as necessary to reinforce the negative effects of current monetary policy measures.

All of this looks good, but the fact that the European banking system is suffering from this long-term Negative interest rates, not to mention the impact on insurance companies and pension funds that have real difficulty in adopting the negative interest rates, especially as the eurozone seeks to complete the Unified European Retirement system.

In any case, the bottom line is that, following the recent ECB monetary policy changes, it makes sense that this October meeting will be a meeting of watching only without making any new adjustments, but we will certainly see farewell to the third President of the European Central Bank, Mario Draghi, the man who He served for eight difficult years passed the euro area.

Information provided by ATFX (AE) Head of Market Research: Ramy Abouzaid

Legal: AT Global Markets (UK) Limited is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) in the United Kingdom. FCA registration number (760555). Registered Office: 32 Cornhill, London, EC3V 3SG. Company No. 09827091

 

[Kelly Yeung]

ATFX-A Global Leader in Online Trading
ATFX Market Outlook, 2019 Oct 23

Personal opinions today:

Yesterday, British prime minister Boris Johnson pushed through procedural legislation to save the Brexit deal, which was rejected by the house of Commons, believing the deadline for Brexit at the end of this month would have to be extended. The British parliament is unable to pass the Brexit agreement before the deadline, so it is estimated that there is a great risk that the pound exchange rate will fall. The recent analysis highlighted the UK divorce with EU and expected adjustments in the Euro and pound. Gold and silver prices have rebounded from low levels amid renewed risk aversion caused by the brexit issue and falling stock markets. Gold's rise was capped at $1, 500 by a thaw in trade relations with China. Crude oil prices rose in a number of factors, mainly the United States API crude oil inventory data fell, bullish oil prices.

European central bank (ECB) monetary policy is widely expected to remain unchanged after its President Mario draghi attended his last policy meeting and press conference on Thursday. But the ECB's new President, she will take over on November 1, before the central bank formally restarts its TLTRO . It is looking into the possibility of a big rate cut. Market forecast, this European central bank interest rate meeting, may again put forward the relevant research report. If the European central bank will introduce further interest rate cuts, It would believe that good for the future economy. But as things stand, the euro is expected to come downward before the ECB's rate decision.

[Important financial data and events]
Note: * is the degree of importance

20:30 Canada wholesale sales in August *
21:00 U.S. August FHFA housing price index *
22:30 U.S. EIA crude oil inventory last week **
To be confirm British Parliament discussion for extending Brexit deadline and a second referendum

Today's suggestion:

Euro/dollar
1.1150/1.1160 resistance
1.1100/1.1090 support
Brexit failure, bearish for euro. The British prime minister put forward a motion to amend the Brexit legislation to the British parliament, but it was rejected again, which was bearish for the euro. It is believed that the news of Brexit negotiations will continue to affect the pound and indirectly affect the euro. In addition, this week the European central bank monetary policy decisions, bearish sentiment effect, the euro may fall, adjust to 1.10 levels. If the Fed releases interest rate cut remarks, the euro will be bullish, which is likely to try 1.12.

Pound to dollar
1.2935/1.2950 resistance
1.2855/1.2840 support
The Brexit agreement submitted by the British prime minister to the British parliament has been rejected by the British parliament, which is bearish for the pound and temporarily unable to break through the resistance level of the rally wave 1.3005. If the British parliament again rejects the Brexit deal, seeks a second referendum or the European commission does not give a delay to the Brexit deal, it may lead to a bearish effect on the pound. We suggest you watch pound fluctuations. 1.2840 is the current rebound wave support level, is concerned by the market.

Australian dollar to US dollar
0.6880/0.6890 resistance
0.6835/0.6825 support
The failure of the Brexit deal by parliament affected investment sentiment, with the US dollar, Australian dollar and New Zealand dollar adjusting gains. Technically, last month's high of 0.6890 will be an important resistance level reference, currently maintain observation, if confirmed breakthrough failure, trend adjustment. On the contrary, if the Fed makes interest rate cut remarks, it will be bearish for the US dollar and bullish for the Australian and New Zealand dollars.

Dollar to yen
108.75/108.90 resistance
108.40/108.25 support
The failure of the British parliament to pass a Brexit deal to leave the European Union dampened investment sentiment, limiting the dollar's gains against the yen and also following declines in Dow and Nikkei futures. Technically, the dollar against the yen continues to follow the stock market. USDJPY, 108.90 is the current reference resistance.

U.S. dollar to Canadian dollar
1.3135/1.3150 resistance
1.3085/1.3075 support
After the Canadian election, the Canadian dollar rose before a day. But the news is pricing in a correction. If the price of crude oil rose, indirectly bullish Canadian dollar. Technically, the U.S. dollar could test 1.32 against the Canadian dollar if crude oil prices fall. Unless, Fed rate cut would be bullish for oil prices and the Canadian dollar. It's worth keeping an eye on.

United States crude oil futures
54.65/54.90 resistance
53.15/52.80 support
Saudi crude oil exporters has proposed a joint production cut with other OPEC members. U.S. API crude oil inventories fell as expected, bullish crude oil prices. Crude oil prices posted their biggest gain in two weeks. But the Brexit deal failed to get a vote in the British parliament, which bearish the crude oil prices. Current technical analysis estimates that crude oil prices at $55 initial resistance, watch out for downside risk.

Gold
1492/1494 resistance
1481/1479 support
The European central bank (ECB) and the federal reserve (Fed) are due to meet soon after the Brexit deal failed to pass parliament. In the interest rate cut is also expected to rise, venture capital may flow back into the gold market again, let the gold price rise. Technically, it is worth paying attention to and referring to the Dow futures volatility and trend, how to drive the gold price trend and direction. If Dow futures fall, Asian stocks fall and gold falls at different times. Note that after the London market opened, the gold prices may again test resistance in light of the above mentioned data.

U.S. Dow Jones industrial average futures US30
26940/27020 resistance
26720/26660 support
Dow Jones industrial average futures failed to break through 27,000 points after U.S. economic data failed to grow as expected. At present, the main support for the stock market rise, the first is the success of China and US trade negotiations. The second is that the federal reserve may cut interest rates. These two key points are likely to support the Dow futures move higher. Technically, if Dow futures maintain 26660 support, keep bullish Dow futures.

BTCUSD:
8600/ 8850 resistance
7885 / 7655 support
As US economy slowdown, FOMC would consider cut Fed fund rate. It is supposed bullish for crypto currencies, such as Bitcoin and other popular crypto currencies. After the weekend, the Brexit deal failed, the the crypto market could demand increasing. Technically, the bitcoin price support at US7885. Assuming the bitcoin price as followed the gold price. If FOMC and ECB would cut interest rate, bitcoin price could rise further.

Enjoy trading! The content is for reference only. Please do ensure that you understand the risk.

Information provided by AT Global Market, Chief Analyst of Asia Pacific: Martin Lam
Registered Australian Accountant/ Certified Professional Manager / Certified Financial Advisor Experienced Investor / Media Market Commentator Martin Lam has Over 17 years’ experience in global investment market. Familiar with the worldwide stock indices, precious metals such Gold and Silver, Crude oil and Forex. He operated Martin Currency Trading Company and had partnership with a number of well-known international financial corporations and institutions. Before he join ATFX, he was TeleTrade Greater China development and Sales Director. Mr. Lam attends Hong Kong Now TV and China CCTV finance channel once a week. He also had regularly invited by different media, such as DBC Digital Financial Channel, Hong Kong Economic Times, The Standard, Ming Pao to share his experience to trade in Forex, Precious metals, Crude oil and worldwide stock indices.

Legal: AT Global Markets Limited (ATGM, registration number 24226 IBC 2017). ATGM is an International Business Company in Saint Vincent and the Grenadines.

 

[Kelly Yeung]

For more analysis check out, please click the below link:


Market Analysis by ATFX Global Chief Market Strategist - Alejandro Zambrano

ATFX is a co-brand shared by a number of different entities globally including:

• AT Global Markets (UK) Limited in the United Kingdom regulated by FCA;
• ATFX Global Markets (CY) Limited in Cyprus regulated by CySEC;
• AT Global Markets Limited registered in the Financial Services Authority (FSA) in Saint Vincent and the Grenadines;
• AT Global Markets Intl Ltd in Mauritus is licensed by the Financial Services Commission (FSC) and;
• AT Capital Markets Limited is a rep office of ATFX Global Markets (CY) Limited regulated by Financial Services Regulatory Authority (FSRA) and CySEC. AT Capital Markets Limited deals with Professional clients only.

 

[Kelly Yeung]

ATFX-A Global Leader in Online Trading
ATFX Market Outlook, 2019 Oct 24

Personal opinions today:

British prime minister Boris Johnson cannot push through procedural legislation for a Brexit deal, will be delayed Brexit at the end of this month. Under the procedure now, the British parliament must submit an extension to the European Union and obtain approval from the member of the European Commission. Besides, by that deadline, parliament must approve a timetable for a deal to leave the European Union, or hold a second referendum in the interim to decide whether to proceed. Assuming that the situation is not stable; the British pound is facing a high risk of decline.

Market sentiment on the negative impact of the Brexit, risk aversion on, the stock market may fall, driving gold and silver prices rebound low. If it without progress well in China and US trade relations, the price of gold could have exceeded $1,500, and the price of crude oil could have fallen. But as the trade climate between China and the United States continues to ease, tensions with Iran have cooled. Also, U.S. sanctions on Turkey eased tensions in the Middle East, which helped gold prices downward and crude oil prices get a boost.

Today is the ECB interest rate decision and the European central bank President Mario Draghi attended the last monetary policy meeting and press conference. The ECB's monetary policy was widely expected to remain unchanged, but the new ECB President Christine Lagarde policy issues and the formal resumption of the ECB's TLTRO program. The market forecast, this European central bank interest rate meeting, may again put forward on the expansion of policy easing research report. If the ECB will come up with a rate cut or other related policy, it is believed to be good for Europe's future economy, but the euro could come downward first.

[Important financial data and events]
Note: * is the degree of importance

15:30 German Manufacturing PMI ***
16:00 Eurozone Manufacturing PMI **
19:45 ECB Monetary policy decision ***
20:30 ECB Press conference ***
20:30 U.S. Jobless claims last week **
20:30 U.S. Durable goods orders **
21:45 U.S. Markit manufacturing/services PMI **
22:00 U.S. New home sales **

Today's suggestion:

Euro/dollar
1.1150/1.1160 resistance
1.1100/1.1090 support
Brexit uncertainty, bearish for euro. The German manufacturing PMI was released today, followed by the same data for the Eurozone. If the result is lower than expected, it is bearish for the Euro. Besides, this evening is the ECB monetary policy decision, before can be affected by the sentiment, the Euro may fall. Refer to support bit 1.1090. If there is no dovish talk from the ECB, but the Fed releases release interest rate cuts, it will be bullish for the Euro.

Pound to dollar
1.2935/1.2950 resistance
1.2855/1.2840 support
The timetable for a Brexit deal and whether there will be a second referendum remain undecided, limiting gains and further bearish the pound. Technical analysis, if the pound failed to break the rebound wave resistance 1.3005, has been proposed to pay attention to the decline of support level 1.2840. A weak for Eurozone and German manufacturing PMI today, the ECB's intention to ease policy or negative news on Brexit could all be bearish for pound.

Australian dollar to US dollar
0.6880/0.6890 resistance
0.6835/0.6825 support
The failure of Brexit by British parliament affected investor sentiment, with the US dollar, Australian dollar and New Zealand dollar adjusting gains. Technically, the last month's high of 0.6890 will be an essential resistance level reference, remain under observation. Trend strength, the preliminary determination of breakthrough failure, trend ready to adjust. Of course, if the Fed makes a bearish case for the U.S. dollar, it will make a bullish for the Australian and New Zealand dollars.

Dollar to Japanese yen
108.75/108.90 resistance
108.40/108.25 support
Tensions in the Middle East have eased, and trade relations between China and the United States have continued to make progress. Also, the market expects the ECB and the federal reserve released their dovish comments on interest rate cuts and will lead the Dow and Nikkei futures up. Technically, USDJPY continues to follow the stock market trend. If Dow futures rise, the USDJPY has an opportunity to test the 108.90 target reference resistance.

U.S. dollar to Canadian dollar
1.3135/1.3150 resistance
1.3060/1.3045 support
Crude oil prices rose, indirectly more Canadian dollar. Technically, the U.S. dollar could test 1.32 against the Canadian dollar if crude oil prices fall. Instead, it looks as if crude oil prices are rising, with the U.S. dollar trading at 1.30 Canadian dollars. If the Fed releases interest rate cuts, it will be bullish for crude oil prices, and even better for the Canadian dollar. By then, the USDCAD could test the $1.29 level.

United States crude oil futures
55.95/56.40 resistance
54.15/53.80 support
The Saudi group joined other Opec members in cutting production, U.S. API crude inventories fell as expected, and the U.S. eased sanctions on Turkey, bullish the crude prices. Crude oil prices rose again. But the Brexit deal failed to get a vote in the British parliament to limit the price of crude oil. Yesterday this analysis proposed that in the technical analysis estimates that crude oil prices at the $55 level could be shown the resistance, watch out for the downside risk.

Gold
1496/1498 resistance
1487/1485 support
Brexit failed to pass the British parliament, the ECB interest rate cut, the federal reserve will soon hold a meeting. The expectation that the Fed would cut interest rates and money flowed into the gold market, causing gold prices to rise. In the short term, due to the observation of interest rates, it is worth watching and referring to the Dow futures movements and movements in line with the direction of the gold price. If interest rate cuts expected, Dow futures rose, followed by gold prices. If there is dovish commentary in ECB monetary policy decision, gold could rise, testing $1,500.

U.S. Dow Jones industrial average futures US30
26940/27020 resistance
26720/26660 support
Dow futures failed to break through 27,000 points after U.S. economic data was unable to grow as expected. At present, the primary support for the stock market rise; the first is the success of China and US trade deals. The second is that the federal reserve may cut interest rates. Expect these points could support the Dow futures move higher. Technically, if Dow futures maintain support above 26660, it could keep Dow futures bullish.

BTCUSD:
7885/ 8050 resistance
7255 / 7100 support
As the US economic slowdown, FOMC would consider cut the Fed fund rate. It is supposed bullish for cryptocurrencies, such as Bitcoin and other popular cryptocurrencies. Technically, the bitcoin price failed to support at US7885. It would test US7255 or US7100. If FOMC and ECB would cut interest rate, bitcoin price could rebound.

Enjoy trading! The content is for reference only. Please do ensure that you understand the risk.

Information provided by AT Global Market, Chief Analyst of Asia Pacific: Martin Lam
Registered Australian Accountant/ Certified Professional Manager / Certified Financial Advisor Experienced Investor / Media Market Commentator Martin Lam has Over 17 years’ experience in global investment market. Familiar with the worldwide stock indices, precious metals such Gold and Silver, Crude oil and Forex. He operated Martin Currency Trading Company and had partnership with a number of well-known international financial corporations and institutions. Before he join ATFX, he was TeleTrade Greater China development and Sales Director. Mr. Lam attends Hong Kong Now TV and China CCTV finance channel once a week. He also had regularly invited by different media, such as DBC Digital Financial Channel, Hong Kong Economic Times, The Standard, Ming Pao to share his experience to trade in Forex, Precious metals, Crude oil and worldwide stock indices.

Legal: AT Global Markets Limited (ATGM, registration number 24226 IBC 2017). ATGM is an International Business Company in Saint Vincent and the Grenadines.

 

[Kelly Yeung]

ATFX-A Global Leader in Online Trading
ATFX Market Outlook, 2019 Oct 25

Personal opinions today:

Britain prime minister failed to push for a Brexit on time, which will need to seek a delay applied to the European Commission at the end of the month. In addition, the British prime minister plans to arrange a December election, adding to the fact that the UK congress could not pass the timetable for the Brexit agreement before the deadline of the European Union in late October, or the second Brexit vote, which led to a fall in the pound and the Euro and the rise of the dollar. But last night, the United States published several critical economic data, mostly about productivity and consumer data weakness, limiting the dollar's rise. U.S. data were weak, and Dow futures fell. U.S. interest rate futures were expected to heat up after U.S. data were released. The market forecast that the bank of the United States and the storage bureau had a 25-point chance at the end of October. If Fed interest rates cut, bullish investment sentiment, capital flow to the stock market, commodity markets, with gold and oil prices rising.

Europe opened today, Germany release November GFK consumer confidence index. Then Germany's Ifo business index was equally crucial in October. The recent Eurozone and German figures have not grown. It is estimated that there has been no growth in Germany's data today. On the contrary, data weak, more likely to trigger the euro and sterling continue to fall. Last night, the European central bank held interest, as the market was widely expected to change the monetary policy of the European central bank, but at the ECB's meeting, it suggested a study of expanded policy on easing. In the future, the ECB will still be able to take a reduction in interest rates or increase the size of the scale, allowing the Euro to downward. In addition, the UK cannot complete the program before the European Union deadline. Believe that European currencies will still fall, and if the federal reserve is intended to cut interest rates next week, it will temporarily ease the fall in European currencies. The Dow futures, gold and oil prices, are expected to rise in the short term. The dollar and Dow futures will be down if the Michigan consumer confidence index is below market forecasts today.

Important financial data and events
The * marks is a degree of importance

14:00 German GFK consumer confidence index **
16:00 German business sentiment index **
22:00 US Michigan consumer confidence index final ***
23:00 Canada budget balance *

Today suggestion :

The euro against the dollar
1.1120/1.1135 resistance
1.1085/1.1070 support
Britain is facing obstacles to the Euro. The Eurozone manufacturing PMI continued to weaken in October, and European data are expected to remain weak today. Also, last night, the European central bank dovish speech was able to bearish for the Euro. On the other hand, if the Fed officials say they are planning to cut interest rates again, it will only be able to limit the Euro downward, but it will not be able to bullish the Euro. Technically, the British pound will continue to lead the Euro.

Pound against the dollar
1.2885/1.2900 resistance
1.2805/1.2790 support
Brexit will be a possible second referendum. Technical analysis, if the pound fails to break the rebound wave resistance level of 1.2900, the trend continues to fall. The recent proposal to note the support of 1.2840. There is negative news of the ECB easing monetary policy and Brexit failure, both of which are a bearish pound. The target is extended to the next level of 1.2740 support.

Australian dollar against US dollar
0.6845/0.6860 resistance
0.6810/0.6795 support
Brexit has not been passed by the British parliament to influence the investment sentiment. The US President has led the government, and the vice president has criticised the progress of the second phase of the trade between China and the United States, with a weak dollar and New Zealand dollar. The analysis of the technical analysis of the recent report, the last month's high 0.6890 breakthroughs failed, the trend is ready to adjust. At the moment, the Fed may release interest rates cut, and the dollar will be expected to be bullish the Australian dollar and New Zealand dollar.

The dollar against the yen
108.80/108.95 resistance
108.40/108.25 support
The ECB and Fed will release interest rate cut, hoping to cut interest rates and believe the dollar will follow the Dow and the Nikkei index futures, USDJPY up to 109. Technically, the dollar continues to develop the stock market. If the Dow futures rose, the USDJPY would test the resistance of the target

US Dollar against the Canadian dollar
1.3135/1.3150 resistance
1.3060/1.3045 support
Crude Oil prices rise, benefits Canada dollar. Technically, if the price of crude oil fell, the USDCAD would return to 1.31. On the other hand, as crude oil prices rose, the USDCAD keeps at 1.30. The final value of the Michigan consumer confidence index, which is lower than the market price. But the Fed released interest rate cuts, which are bullish for the Canadian dollar. Then, the USDCAD is expected to be at 1.29.

US crude oil futures
56.40/56.50 resistance
54.70/54.60 support
Saudi oil exporters plan to cut production with OPEC members, with the U.S. API crude oil inventory fell, the crude oil price up. The crude oil price has again recorded gains. But with the Brexit agreement failing to get the British parliament to vote, the second order of trade consultations between China and US have an unambiguous factor, which beliefs in limiting the price of oil and adjusting it. Keep watching the final value of the Michigan consumer confidence index will fall further than expected.

Gold
1505/1507 resistance
Support for 1494/1492
The UK cannot divorce with the European Union, the European central bank and the Fed has held interest cut, money flow to the gold market have bullish gold prices. Yesterday, the ECB monetary policy resolution appeared to be easing monetary policy, and gold prices were expected to rise and test $1,500. Today, the Michigan consumer confidence expected to weak. Before the announcement, it was estimated that would be bullish gold. Gold prices are expected to break if data weakness or Dow futures fall.

Dow Jones industrial index futures us30
26940/27020 resistance
26720/26660 support
The UK divorce the European Union has not been approved by the UK congress, and the U.S. economic data haven't been able to break the 27,000 points, as the market expects to grow. The market outlook is likely to cut interest rates and support the rise in Dow futures. Technically, if the Dow futures remain above 26660, it is expected to keep the Dow futures upward.

BTCUSD:
7885/ 8050 resistance
7255 / 7100 support
As the US economy slowdown, FOMC would consider cut Fed fund rate. It is supposed bullish for cryptocurrencies, such as Bitcoin and other popular cryptocurrencies. Technically, the bitcoin price failed to support at US7885. It would test US7255 or US7100. If FOMC and ECB would cut interest rate, bitcoin price could rebound.

Enjoy trading! The content is for reference only. Please do ensure that you understand the risk.

Information provided by AT Global Market, Chief Analyst of Asia Pacific: Martin Lam
Registered Australian Accountant/ Certified Professional Manager / Certified Financial Advisor Experienced Investor / Media Market Commentator Martin Lam has Over 17 years’ experience in global investment market. Familiar with the worldwide stock indices, precious metals such Gold and Silver, Crude oil and Forex. He operated Martin Currency Trading Company and had partnership with a number of well-known international financial corporations and institutions. Before he join ATFX, he was TeleTrade Greater China development and Sales Director. Mr. Lam attends Hong Kong Now TV and China CCTV finance channel once a week. He also had regularly invited by different media, such as DBC Digital Financial Channel, Hong Kong Economic Times, The Standard, Ming Pao to share his experience to trade in Forex, Precious metals, Crude oil and worldwide stock indices.

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[Kelly Yeung]

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[Kelly Yeung]

Facebook (FB) will report Q3 earnings after the close of the trading session on October 30. Wall Street is looking for a 26% sales growth but just 8% earnings growth. Facebook share, has almost lost 8% since it reported Q2 earnings on July 24th, but still is more than 45% higher in 2019.

Facebook keeps growing and delivers impressive results. FB platforms now include Facebook, WhatsApp, Instagram, and Messenger; it holds a $543 billion capitalization thanks to its ability to attract users across the wide array of its platforms. Beyond advertising, Facebook is exploring opportunities in online shopping, crypto, and payments.

Facebook earnings for the Q2 beat consensus estimates by 12 cents, growing 14% to $1.99, excluding legal settlement costs. Revenue grew 28% to $16.89 billion. Without the negative forex effect, revenues would have increased by 32%. Although the Q2 results beat the market’s expectations, Facebook shares felt the pressure as declining margins and increased regulatory scrutiny weighed on investors sentiment.

In Q2, Daily Active Users (DAUs) of Facebook increased 8% YoY to 1.59 billion users, while Monthly Active Users (MAUs) grew by 8% to 2.41 billion. DAUs in the USA and Canada, which account for roughly 50% of revenue, showed strong momentum. In June more than 2.7 billion people used at least one of the “Family of services” outlets; Facebook, Instagram, WhatsApp, or Messenger monthly.



Facebook Q3 Outlook
Facebook’s Q3 revenue forecasted to increase by 26.2% to $17.32 billion. FB’s full-year fiscal 2019 revenue is projected to rise by 25.9% from $55.84 billion to $70.29 billion, with next year’s sales expected to be 22% higher to reach $85.63 billion.

At the bottom line of the income statement, FB’s adjusted Q3 earnings are projected to increase 8.5% to reach $1.91 per share. FB’s full-year EPS figure is expected to fall nearly 16% amid an increase in capital expenditures.

The company expects full-year 2019 expenses to grow 53-61% compared to 2018. The $5B in accruals recorded in the first half of 2019 related to the FTC settlement accounts approximately 16 percentage points of this anticipated expense growth. Except for the $2B accrual recorded in Q2, the 2019 expense outlook is virtually unchanged from last quarter.



Legal Matters
The online industry and FB have received increased regulatory scrutiny in the last months. In June 2019, Facebook was informed by the FTC that it had opened an antitrust investigation of the company. Beyond that, on July 2019, the US JusticeDepartment announced that it would begin an antitrust review of market-leading online platforms. The data privacy scandal hurts the reputation of the company.

Mark Zuckerberg will appear in front of the House Financial Services Committee on October 23rd to discuss FB’s plan to enter the cryptocurrency market. FB in June announced plans for a blockchain-based cryptocurrency known as Libra.



Facebook Technical Analysis
Facebook stock run an impressive rebound from $173 lows on October 2nd up to $190 at two-week highs. The stock price has gained 45.24% in 2019, while for the last 12 months is 23.59% higher.
FB Stock Price

The momentum is bullish for FB as it managed to cross above all significant daily moving averages in the last two weeks. On the upside, immediate resistance for Facebook stands at $193 the high from September 20th, and a break to the high might drive price up to the next resistance of $202, the high from July 26th. A downside structure in FB may encounter first support at $186.97, the 100-day moving average, below this level, the next barrier comes in at $184.09, the 50-day moving average, which if broken might accelerate the drop further towards the 200-day moving average at $178.02.

About Facebook
Facebook, engages in the development of social media platforms for people to connect through mobile devices, personal computers, and other interfaces. It enables members to share ideas, opinions, ideas, videos, photos, and other activities online. Its services and products include Facebook, Messenger, Instagram, Oculus, and WhatsApp. The company founded by M. Zuckerberg, D. Moskovitz, C. Hughes, A. McCollum, and E. Saverin on February 2004, and headquartered in Menlo Park, CA.


Information provided by InvestingCube.com and ATFX, Market Strategist: Nikolas Papas

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