฿ Bitcoin BTC 06 February - 06 August 2018 Technical update

[Ahmed El-Shazly]

Hi Ahmed,
actually we provide regular updates, aprox. once per 2-3 weeks. Just watch the post of technical analysis in this thread - we put update in the same post. Or do you mean that it should be more often?

Dear Sive.... Thanks for your response. I always look at your insightful thoughts on whatever you post. Keep the great work.

Yes, I meant if we can have it more often. The last update was in 21st of March (around a month now) and in crypto land things changes quickly.

Thanks again for you all your efforts.

 

[RogerTC]

Here is an Update;

İn the long term we are still bullish targeting weekly OP extension at 20400. Lets monitor the weekly macdp change on the coming weeks and of course the DP after we get it. İf we get strong DP on buy; first weekly resistance levels stands at 12189-12940 zone and more resistance higher up at 14500-15750. These are big weekly levels and market can show serious retracement around them.

Looking at our daily market has reached 9500-9750 OP+F5 agreement zone. Now days I trade the bitcoin outside our regular trade plans. I look to get %4-5 percent profit around big levels at daily and 4hr timeframes.

I shorted the market at 9450, 9650 and 9700 with a bonsai stop at 10010. Close 1/3 with profit at 9300 and waiting to close remaining 2/3 at 4hr confluence at 9065.

Looing at daily support fibnodes. There is nice confluence zone at 8500-8600. We can either scalp around these levels for %4-5 profit or long term targeting at least a daily OP.

 

[Ahmed El-Shazly]

BTC 23 April 2018 Technical update

By your request, guys, we turn to weekly update of BTC technical picture on Mondays.

Long-term view has not changed significantly as we have the same pattern on background. We still expect upside action on weekly chart. Major reason for it is DiNapoli Volatility breakout pattern, which usually suggests at least 5/8 reaction in direction of breakout. (Now we're talking on upside breakout). As you can see 5/8 Fib level stands around 14500$.
Still, as upside action has started slightly lower that it was suggested initially, we need to adjust upside targets. Now we have two of them COP =10 150$ and OP = 12400$. On coming week we will focus on the nearest one.
View attachment 37221

On daily/4H time frame we now are mostly interested with reverse H&S pattern. As price is coming to neckline, 1/2-5/8 retracement is possible to keep harmony of this pattern. Potential target of this H&S stands around 10 175 which agrees with weekly COP destination point:

​

View attachment 37222

That's being said, we expect upside action within 1-2 sessions to neckline ~ 9 450$ and 1/2 - 5/8 retracement to 7500 - 8000$ area to form right arm of our H&S pattern.

Hi Sive-
Thanks for the analysis....

As bitcoin seems volatile, I would suggest a focus on daily and 4 hours analysis (maybe even hourly). It is always good to look at the bigger picture but I think that crypto markets are not really mature to be assessed for long term especially anything above monthly.

I agree with your general target highlight but I want to tease your thoughts and ask if really bitcoin behave normally and Fib levels really works (not doubting).

As you might see, price crossed the 9200 mark with no respect and reached around 9700 which seems to be a wired place to start a drop (any comments?)

Thanks again

 

[Ahmed El-Shazly]

Here is an Update;

İn the long term we are still bullish targeting weekly OP extension at 20400. Lets monitor the weekly macdp change on the coming weeks and of course the DP after we get it. İf we get strong DP on buy; first weekly resistance levels stands at 12189-12940 zone and more resistance higher up at 14500-15750. These are big weekly levels and market can show serious retracement around them.

View attachment 37249


Looking at our daily market has reached 9500-9750 OP+F5 agreement zone. Now days I trade the bitcoin outside our regular trade plans. I look to get %4-5 percent profit around big levels at daily and 4hr timeframes.
View attachment 37250

I shorted the market at 9450, 9650 and 9700 with a bonsai stop at 10010. Close 1/3 with profit at 9300 and waiting to close remaining 2/3 at 4hr confluence at 9065.

View attachment 37251

Looing at daily support fibnodes. There is nice confluence zone at 8500-8600. We can either scalp around these levels for %4-5 profit or long term targeting at least a daily OP.

View attachment 37252

Hi Butcherfx-

Thanks a lot for your analysis. I agree with you that short term might be a good way to look at this market.

I have a question however, you mentioned that you placed some sell orders between the 9500 and 9700 range (which I can agree on), placed stops above 10000 (fair enough) but as Risk/Reward don't you think that these trades carry a lot of risk (exposing your self to around 500$ to get between 200$ and 500$?)

I am not judging you at all, I just want to understand how to better place my entry an exit points. To be honest with you I started shorting from 9200 area believing that it would go down and got really burned (you don't really want to know how much ) I believed that it was over stretched but my timing was not correct.

 

[RogerTC]

Here is an Update;

İn the long term we are still bullish targeting weekly OP extension at 20400. Lets monitor the weekly macdp change on the coming weeks and of course the DP after we get it. İf we get strong DP on buy; first weekly resistance levels stands at 12189-12940 zone and more resistance higher up at 14500-15750. These are big weekly levels and market can show serious retracement around them.

View attachment 37249


Looking at our daily market has reached 9500-9750 OP+F5 agreement zone. Now days I trade the bitcoin outside our regular trade plans. I look to get %4-5 percent profit around big levels at daily and 4hr timeframes.
View attachment 37250

I shorted the market at 9450, 9650 and 9700 with a bonsai stop at 10010. Close 1/3 with profit at 9300 and waiting to close remaining 2/3 at 4hr confluence at 9065.

View attachment 37251

Looing at daily support fibnodes. There is nice confluence zone at 8500-8600. We can either scalp around these levels for %4-5 profit or long term targeting at least a daily OP.

View attachment 37252

UPDATE

2/3 of position closed with profit at 4hr confluence.

 

[RogerTC]

Hi Butcherfx-

Thanks a lot for your analysis. I agree with you that short term might be a good way to look at this market.

I have a question however, you mentioned that you placed some sell orders between the 9500 and 9700 range (which I can agree on), placed stops above 10000 (fair enough) but as Risk/Reward don't you think that these trades carry a lot of risk (exposing your self to around 500$ to get between 200$ and 500$?)

I am not judging you at all, I just want to understand how to better place my entry an exit points. To be honest with you I started shorting from 9200 area believing that it would go down and got really burned (you don't really want to know how much ) I believed that it was over stretched but my timing was not correct.

Hello Ahmed,

I sold at 9450 + 9650 + 9700 which makes 9600 in average closed at 9300 , 9065 ,9065 which makes 9143 in average. So the risk reward is a bit higher than 1:1

But this is not the case I would trade it even it was less than 1:1 . Many times we trade without stoploss too. You can apply SOR, Modified Trade Plan (lean against big level) and these are advanced high probability trades but one should really master the techniques in order to use them.

Another example; 2 weeks ago I shorted at 8400 and closed at 8005.

So in summary if we can sell or buy at right place with the help of dinapoli levels we can make money at least BE even if we are wrong.

Hope that helps.

Regards

Roger

 

[Ahmed El-Shazly]

Hello Ahmed,

I sold at 9450 + 9650 + 9700 which makes 9600 in average closed at 9300 , 9065 ,9065 which makes 9143 in average. So the risk reward is a bit higher than 1:1

But this is not the case I would trade it even it was less than 1:1 . Many times we trade without stoploss too. You can apply SOR, Modified Trade Plan (lean against big level) and these are advanced high probability trades but one should really master the techniques in order to use them.

Another example; 2 weeks ago I shorted at 8400 and closed at 8005.

View attachment 37256

So in summary if we can sell or buy at right place with the help of dinapoli levels we can make money at least BE even if we are wrong.

Hope that helps.

Regards

Roger

Thanks ... Totally understand

Would you be kind enough to explain this method?

You can apply SOR, Modified Trade Plan (lean against big level)

 

[RogerTC]

If you check my previou

Thanks ... Totally understand

Would you be kind enough to explain this method?

Please see my below reply to Sive.. Lean against is similar but with hard stop !!

Guys, Roger just has shared with private DiNapoli Scalp-o-rama (SOR) technique. This strategy is studied only on private seminars and wasn't described in the book! Use this chance to understand how it works.

Rodge, could you also specify in what cases SOR is suitable using?

Typically against a major D level with strong context BUT one should have really mastered the dınapoli methods before using SOR.

It requires an excellent understanding of ''step forward'', ''controlling expansion'', ''Reaching A & B'' , ''Macd predictor Hook'' , '' Node breaker '' , Understanding of time frame and the impact it has on D level selection and Discipline to stick to the game plan… cut your profits let losses go to appreciate levels without panicking...

It is much more judgemental than other tecnıques and has a lot of details that is why it s not suitable for general forums. It can be misunderstood easıly. I just trıed to gıve a taste of it. That was an easy one with very high probability... SOR can be used anytıme ıf you thınk you really know the technıque and the MARKET you are trading.

Regards

 

[Sive Morten]

Hi Sive- Thanks for the analysis....

I agree with your general target highlight but I want to tease your thoughts and ask if really bitcoin behave normally and Fib levels really works (not doubting).

Yes, they works at any liquid market, and crypto are not exception.

As you might see, price crossed the 9200 mark with no respect and reached around 9700 which seems to be a wired place to start a drop (any comments?)

Well, this is not a mistake. Because multiple targets could be estimated, based on different lows. In my analysis of 23rd of April, I'm specified on average - 9'450$. "That's being said, we expect upside action within 1-2 sessions to neckline ~ 9 450$ and 1/2 - 5/8 retracement to 7500 - 8000$ area to form right arm of our H&S pattern."
I've done it intentionally, because I do not want to overload analysis with explanation of extensions starting points selection. Initially, me and Rodge have faded upside potential by using as "A'-red " point the one when upside action takes most active stage.
While, we also have absolute "A-blue" low. As you can see BTC has reached AB=CD target very accurately and then has turned down. Take a look at this chart:

This is just conservative reason - fade entry and exit levels a bit to get guarantee of fill. It means that when we talk about some targets or levels - do not treat it as absolute value but as an area where you need to monitor changes, depending on what you're watching for. In our case 9450 was an area where we should watch for downside reversal. And it has happened.

Would you be kind enough to explain this method?

Ahmed, Rodge uses rather sophisticated DiNapoli methods that involves a lot of additional conditions. These methods are studied on private seminars with experienced mentors. Without these knowledge, it could be very expensive to use it. So, it is really tough task to explain this methods in two words here, because each method is wealthy of the separate book to be written on its application.
Personally, I do not use SOR technique, because I do not know all neccesary background for it.

 

[Ahmed El-Shazly]

Hello Sive-

Can't thank you enough for your detailed response.

Thanks again

Ahmed