฿ Bitcoin BTC 06 February - 06 August 2018 Technical update

[yousimon]

If you check my previou


Please see my below reply to Sive.. Lean against is similar but with hard stop !!

Guys, Roger just has shared with private DiNapoli Scalp-o-rama (SOR) technique. This strategy is studied only on private seminars and wasn't described in the book! Use this chance to understand how it works.

Rodge, could you also specify in what cases SOR is suitable using?

Typically against a major D level with strong context BUT one should have really mastered the dınapoli methods before using SOR.

It requires an excellent understanding of ''step forward'', ''controlling expansion'', ''Reaching A & B'' , ''Macd predictor Hook'' , '' Node breaker '' , Understanding of time frame and the impact it has on D level selection and Discipline to stick to the game plan… cut your profits let losses go to appreciate levels without panicking...

It is much more judgemental than other tecnıques and has a lot of details that is why it s not suitable for general forums. It can be misunderstood easıly. I just trıed to gıve a taste of it. That was an easy one with very high probability... SOR can be used anytıme ıf you thınk you really know the technıque and the MARKET you are trading.

Regards

Which book we can learn this trading method？

 

[RogerTC]

These methods are studied on private seminars only unfortunately there isnt any book.

 

[Sive Morten]

Hi Guys,
Today I surf across the net, and have found very interesting article on Bitcoin analysis and view on possible "Bubbleometer" on this market:

Market Psych Indices | The Rise, Fall, & Resurrection(?) of Cryptocurrencies

And another one - it is dedicated to quantitative methods for bubble recognizing:

Are Cryptocurrencies Real Financial Bubbles? Evidence from Quantitative Analyses

 

[Ahmed El-Shazly]

Hi Guys,
Today I surf across the net, and have found very interesting article on Bitcoin analysis and view on possible "Bubbleometer" on this market:

Market Psych Indices | The Rise, Fall, & Resurrection(?) of Cryptocurrencies

And another one - it is dedicated to quantitative methods for bubble recognizing:

Are Cryptocurrencies Real Financial Bubbles? Evidence from Quantitative Analyses

Thanks Sive.
These articles are one of the most difficult articles to read (so technical). Looks like a good study but somehow outdated and tough to calculate it for todays price.

I am not sure what you got out of them or where is the market going...

 

[RogerTC]

Market testing weekly COP resistance. We will monitor the trend change for next few weeks. If we get strong DP and break COP resistance, it will open up the way through weekly OP resistance.

Daily charts looks interesting. Bitcon retracing back from weekly COP + Daily F5 and daily is in uncorfirmed sell. For the bulls we dont want to see a close under daily macdp.

We do have nice confluence support fib levels on daily. But if the market retraces and tests these levels it will be bearish for bitcoin.

Looking at 4hr timeframe; confluence at 9480 will be quite important. We can expect buyers to step in and see a daily close over macdp.

Lets wait and see how the market reacts ; İf we see a daily buy I will start looking to buy dips on lower timeframes with the context weekly and daily up trends. Vice verse if the market cant hold 4hr confluence then I will wait on side line until the market test daily confluence support levels.

 

[Ahmed El-Shazly]

Market testing weekly COP resistance. We will monitor the trend change for next few weeks. If we get strong DP and break COP resistance, it will open up the way through weekly OP resistance.
View attachment 37406

Daily charts looks interesting. Bitcon retracing back from weekly COP + Daily F5 and daily is in uncorfirmed sell. For the bulls we dont want to see a close under daily macdp.

View attachment 37407
We do have nice confluence support fib levels on daily. But if the market retraces and tests these levels it will be bearish for bitcoin.
View attachment 37409

Looking at 4hr timeframe; confluence at 9480 will be quite important. We can expect buyers to step in and see a daily close over macdp.

View attachment 37408
Lets wait and see how the market reacts ; İf we see a daily buy I will start looking to buy dips on lower timeframes with the context weekly and daily up trends. Vice verse if the market cant hold 4hr confluence then I will wait on side line until the market test daily confluence support levels.

Thanks Roger for the analysis.

I have some questions though:
1- Why would you be on the sidelines if daily closes below macp? In this case you will have both weekly and daily bearish, market achieved major weekly target, and market is failing to challenge the 10K area? Shouldn't you be looking for a short entry instead?
2- If daily closes above macp, you would be looking for a long which in my view might be challenging cause you will have to wait for a retracement, in which, the macp will be bearish again (I assume - but lets see the daily close) and you don't have the weekly trend in your favor.

 

[RogerTC]

Hello Ahmed,

Thanks Roger for the analysis.

I have some questions though:
1- Why would you be on the sidelines if daily closes below macp? In this case you will have both weekly and daily bearish, market achieved major weekly target, and market is failing to challenge the 10K area? Shouldn't you be looking for a short entry instead?

A dinapoli trader can always find an opportunıty to play both sides of market by sliding between timeframes. We need to treat the case with right trade plan. If the case is both weekly, daily, 4hr trends are down and market resting at 4hr confluence and we want to short the market then we need to drop to 1hr tf look for resistance levels for entry . Standart trade plan will be the best choice.
I didnt want to drop to 1hr to short while weekly macdp trend change is coming. The market is volatile now and may not respect to dlevels at lower tfs.

2- If daily closes above macp, you would be looking for a long which in my view might be challenging cause you will have to wait for a retracement, in which, the macp will be bearish again (I assume - but lets see the daily close) and you don't have the weekly trend in your favor.

If the daily would close above macdp I would drop to 30/20m tf for dlevels selection on retracement. I wouldnt wait for retracement on daily.

 

[Ahmed El-Shazly]

BTC 07 May 2018 Technical update

By your request, guys, we turn to weekly update of BTC technical picture on Mondays.

Long-term view has not changed significantly as we have the same pattern on background. We still expect upside action on weekly chart. Major reason for it is DiNapoli Volatility breakout pattern, which usually suggests at least 5/8 reaction in direction of breakout. (Now we're talking on upside breakout). As you can see 5/8 Fib level stands around 14500$.

On weekly chart we do not have a lot of changes - same targets that we will be watching for. Now we have two of them COP =10 150$ and OP = 12400$. On coming week we will focus on the nearest one, because market comes very close to it.
View attachment 37421

On daily chart we have classical triangle pattern and 4th leg inside. Upper border of triangle coincides with weekly COP target around 10100-10200$:
View attachment 37422

On 4H we abandone our H&S pattern for awhile and turn to shorter term perspective. Here is the major question whether market will hit weekly COP first and shows deep downside retracement second, or vice versa.
Deep retracement should come as due triangle price action, as due appearing of upside reversal swing here.
View attachment 37423

Still, taking in consideration price action after OP, I dare to suggest reaching of 10100-10200 first and deep retracement second.
Reason for this stands on a background of market reaction on OP target here. Reaching of OP was a good reason to start a moderate pullback. But market has not done it and continues climbing higher. Besides, on 1H time frame we see very harmonic swings. Target of the last one coincides with weekly COP.
View attachment 37424

And, in general this 10150$ level completes a lot of other patterns - Monthly Pivot Resistance1, 4H Butterfly "Sell", daily triangle border and here, on hourly chart a kind of 1.618 3-Drive "Sell".

Still, keep an eye on inner trendline (purple) on 4H chart. If it will be broken down - deep retracement probably will start and COP will rest untouched.

Love the analysis !!! Thx Sive.

As Bitcoin does not have a centralized exchange (and price vary from one to another), I have a measured weekly COP on Bitfinex at 10002 and the highest was 9990 and Bitmex COP at 10060 and the highest was 9970; Does not that qualify for the target reached for a weekly COP target?

 

[Sive Morten]

Love the analysis !!! Thx Sive.

As Bitcoin does not have a centralized exchange (and price vary from one to another), I have a measured weekly COP on Bitfinex at 10002 and the highest was 9990 and Bitmex COP at 10060 and the highest was 9970; Does not that qualify for the target reached for a weekly COP target?

Well, I prefer to wait for clear target hit, especially for COP, because it nearest one. Usually traders fade extensions, Fib levels and targets in safer side. For example, you buy slightly above Fib level, while you sell slightly below. When you have position, you fade COP/OP/XOP targets so that profit taking aimed to be slightly before targets etc.

 

[RogerTC]

Market testing good confluence support.. It can try to take out stops below the lows and then push higher.