฿ Bitcoin BTC 06 February - 06 August 2018 Technical update

[Ahmed El-Shazly]

General question, if the weekly macdp opens above a dropping macdp but closes below it, will this qualify for a stop grabber? (This is what I see in BTC weekly chart)

 

[RogerTC]

Market testing good confluence support.. It can try to take out stops below the lows and then push higher.

UPDATE

We tried to catch the falling knife.. Everyone was one in panic and trying to sell the market. And we dinapoli traders were trying to buy at confluence. My scalp trades closed with a little over breakeven. That was a good example to show even we are wrong it is hard to loose money with dinapoli trading..Once I was in position; I started checking dynamıic pressure with 5min. It wasnt good. We would expect to see a thrust on 5min when market touches daily confluence. Then we got 30 min.. That wasnt good also. Then we got 1hr on our favor and still no buying pressure come in. So I decided to get out on 30min OP and hardly got it.

For those who tried to long the market as per modified trade plan at confluence with a bonsai stop below daily OP. They are still in play ; daily OP support is holding. They can look to exit at 4hr agreement + confluence resistance around 8890 . Also If you are waiting on side line you can look to fade 4hr buy against daily and weekly sell at this perfect zone ..

I posted tradingview chart becaouse the bitmex data respects really well to fibonacci levels.

 

[RogerTC]

General question, if the weekly macdp opens above a dropping macdp but closes below it, will this qualify for a stop grabber? (This is what I see in BTC weekly chart)

Could you post a screenshot what exactly you see.

 

[Ahmed El-Shazly]

Could you post a screenshot what exactly you see.

Here is the image with MACDP

 

[RogerTC]

Yes stop grabber . Since trend has not changed by close price.

 

[Bulls13]

UPDATE

We tried to catch the falling knife.. Everyone was one in panic and trying to sell the market. And we dinapoli traders were trying to buy at confluence. My scalp trades closed with a little over breakeven. That was a good example to show even we are wrong it is hard to loose money with dinapoli trading..Once I was in position; I started checking dynamıic pressure with 5min. It wasnt good. We would expect to see a thrust on 5min when market touches daily confluence. Then we got 30 min.. That wasnt good also. Then we got 1hr on our favor and still no buying pressure come in. So I decided to get out on 30min OP and hardly got it.
View attachment 37552

For those who tried to long the market as per modified trade plan at confluence with a bonsai stop below daily OP. They are still in play ; daily OP support is holding. They can look to exit at 4hr agreement + confluence resistance around 8890 . Also If you are waiting on side line you can look to fade 4hr buy against daily and weekly sell at this perfect zone ..

View attachment 37553
I posted tradingview chart becaouse the bitmex data respects really well to fibonacci levels.

Hey Roger

Thanks for excellent analysis

 

[Ahmed El-Shazly]

UPDATE

We tried to catch the falling knife.. Everyone was one in panic and trying to sell the market. And we dinapoli traders were trying to buy at confluence. My scalp trades closed with a little over breakeven. That was a good example to show even we are wrong it is hard to loose money with dinapoli trading..Once I was in position; I started checking dynamıic pressure with 5min. It wasnt good. We would expect to see a thrust on 5min when market touches daily confluence. Then we got 30 min.. That wasnt good also. Then we got 1hr on our favor and still no buying pressure come in. So I decided to get out on 30min OP and hardly got it.
View attachment 37552

For those who tried to long the market as per modified trade plan at confluence with a bonsai stop below daily OP. They are still in play ; daily OP support is holding. They can look to exit at 4hr agreement + confluence resistance around 8890 . Also If you are waiting on side line you can look to fade 4hr buy against daily and weekly sell at this perfect zone ..

View attachment 37553
I posted tradingview chart becaouse the bitmex data respects really well to fibonacci levels.

Thank Roger...

I have couple of questions if you can please clarify:
1- I understood that using the bonsai stop on daily (below OP) mean value =< 8383. If I use couple of points below, it would have still be hit (the lowest was 8225). How would that method would've protected me? If you mean stop on a closing bases, then don't you think it will be risky as we wouldn't know when the market will stop the drop?

2- What kind of reaction are you actually looking for when the price hits a confluence area? For instance, now I am looking to fade 4h at the confluence resistance around 8890 as indicated by you.

3- Now that weekly chart almost draws a stop grabber, does that mean that we are likely to break below 6400?

Apologies for the many questions but it is always helpful to learn from you and Sive.

Thanks again

 

[RogerTC]

Thank Roger...

I have couple of questions if you can please clarify:
1- I understood that using the bonsai stop on daily (below OP) mean value =< 8383. If I use couple of points below, it would have still be hit (the lowest was 8225). How would that method would've protected me? If you mean stop on a closing bases, then don't you think it will be risky as we wouldn't know when the market will stop the drop?

2- What kind of reaction are you actually looking for when the price hits a confluence area? For instance, now I am looking to fade 4h at the confluence resistance around 8890 as indicated by you.

3- Now that weekly chart almost draws a stop grabber, does that mean that we are likely to break below 6400?

Apologies for the many questions but it is always helpful to learn from you and Sive.

Thanks again

Hello Ahmed,

1- The size of the bonsai stop depends on both market and the timeframe. For example I use 4-5 thicks for bund in 5 min timeframe. Some other things you should check before placing hard stops are;

- Check ıf there are stops beneath the lows. If yes you should place your stop more lower.
- Check the OB/OS condition . You can look to place your stop below OS band.
- Drop lower timeframes and use step forward method to get expansion support levels.. Then you can look to place your stop beneath those levels.

2- This depends on the trade plans .. If you are using Standart trade plan then you need to exit on 4hr TF at any LPO. If you are using SOR plan you need to look for exit 2-3 tf lower at any LPO.

3- Stop grabber is a strong pattern and yes it targets the lows below 6400 but stop grabbers can fail too. This currently gives us a bearish context.

You are welcome; hope that helps

Regards

 

[Ahmed El-Shazly]

BTC 28 May 2018 Technical update
(Uptades weekly, on Mondays)

Two weeks ago we've mentioned warning signs for bulls, guys, and our worst expectations are coming to reality right now. On weekly chart BTC has failed to reach even minor COP target around 10 160$ and turned down. Trend has turned bearish and we've got first bearish stop grabber, which, in turn, suggests drop below recent lows of ~6 500$. Last week we've got another one, which starts to look as a tendency... Thus, on weekly chart overall picture has not changed, and looks bearish. If you're searching change to take investing long-term position on BTC - this is not the time to do it and it is necessary to wait when either BTC will drop below 6500$. Now we need to estimate first target that BTC could reach within 1-2 weeks.
View attachment 37732
Last week we already have mentioned classical truncation inside triangle - price was not able to reach upper border of triangle and turned down. According to classical technical analysis, this could be a early hint on downside breakout. No reasons to buy either. Now it is time to take a look at target that market should reach. They are major XOP target right from ABC pattern at top and second one - smaller AB=CD pattern from triangle. But both of them point on the same 4300$ .
Second very important issue - we also could get large butterfly "Buy" with the same destination point. All targets coincide with daily oversold level as well:
View attachment 37734

Last week we've mentioned this reverse H&S pattern and said that this is key to further direction. Keeping of this H&S will mean upside reversal while break below major ~7800$ 5/8 Fib level will mean downside continuation and crush of bulls' hopes. And this has happened.
View attachment 37735
That's being said - short-term traders could search chances to go short on hourly chart and join downside action by some bearish continuation pattern. As a rule, "222" Sell pattern forms most often. While long-term traders should wait reaching of ~4300$, where we will do additional analysis on perspective of bullish reversal, which could be triggered by daily butterfly "Buy". Currently we do not see any reasons to buy BTC.

Nice longterm view of BTC!

I have observed however that my numbers are not aligned with yours (maybe due to different exchanges). However, for the major XOP target from ABC pattern at the top, the difference is quite substantial.
Here is a chart of BTC on Bitfinix which puts XOP at around 2380 which is far from your number.

Any idea about these differences?

I understand that this is a weekly analysis but it can be helpful (as you do for forex and gold) to point some areas where some patterns might form or in which area a short is more likely and so forth.

Thanks again

 

[Sive Morten]

Nice longterm view of BTC!

I have observed however that my numbers are not aligned with yours (maybe due to different exchanges). However, for the major XOP target from ABC pattern at the top, the difference is quite substantial.
Any idea about these differences?
I understand that this is a weekly analysis but it can be helpful (as you do for forex and gold) to point some areas where some patterns might form or in which area a short is more likely and so forth.

Thanks again

Hi Ahmed. Well, idea is simple - different quotes Here I've used FX Choice chart of BTC.
Anyway, the major important thing is analysis itself, because you see forecast, our logic and tools that we use. You could transfer this analysis on quotes of any broker that you like and get "correct" numbers. This will change nothing.