Daily Analysis

[Zforex]

EURUSD

The European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to raise interest rates by 25 basis points (bps) to 3.75% at its upcoming meeting. This rate hike is widely anticipated, with a probability of around 97%. The ECB had previously implemented a similar rate increase in June, but it has since slowed down the pace due to concerns about a looming recession.
ECB President Lagarde has been vocal about the need to bring inflation back to the target level and has reiterated the commitment to achieve a 2.0% inflation target. The latest inflation data shows a slight decline in the Eurozone Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) inflation in June.
However, some ECB policymakers have expressed dovish views, suggesting caution in further rate increases. They point to softer-than-expected inflation data and concerns about the potential impact on the economy. The upcoming decision on interest rates in September is seen as critical and will heavily influence the direction of the Euro and its valuation against the US Dollar (EUR/USD).
The recent disappointing preliminary Manufacturing and Services PMIs for July in the Eurozone and Germany have added weight to the view that the region might be heading toward a recession, supporting the dovish expectations from the ECB.
The EUR/USD made a bullish move after yesterday's Fed meeting and is currently trading at the resistance level of 1.1120. At this level, we can find the upper parallel of the bearish channel, and it also represents the last support level.​

Resistance 3	Resistance 2	Resistance 1	Support 1	Support 2	Support 3
1.1210	1.1180	1.1120	1.1085	1.1046	1.1000

GBPUSD

On Thursday, the pound sterling (GBP) experienced a slight corrective movement amid growing fears of a recession in the United Kingdom's economy, which has raised concerns about the Bank of England's (BoE) aggressive policy tightening. The GBP/USD pair is under pressure, but overall sentiment towards the Pound Sterling remains bullish. This optimism is fueled by the possibility of further interest-rate hikes by the UK central bank, aimed at bringing inflation back to its target level.
The UK's Treasury Advisers have expressed worries about economic growth due to the BoE's aggressive policy tightening, which has placed a heavy burden on businesses. Additionally, the country's housing sector is grappling with the impact of higher borrowing costs, leading to a sharp decline in demand from first-time home buyers.
The GBP/USD is on a bullish trend toward the next resistance of 1.3000. A breakout of this level will take the price toward 1.3150.
​

Resistance 3	Resistance 2	Resistance 1	Support 1	Support 2	Support 3
1.3220	1.3150	1.3000	1.2800	1.2750	1.2650

USDJPY

Investors are closely observing Japan's ultra-loose monetary policy as the Bank of Japan (BoJ) prepares to announce its interest rate decision. Expectations are that the BoJ will maintain its current monetary policy, which includes keeping short-term interest rates at -0.1% and 10-year bond yields at 0%. Japan's core inflation rate has surpassed that of the United States for the first time in eight years, indicating that policymakers may continue to adopt a cautious approach to ensure inflation remains above 2%. The differing monetary policies between the BoJ and the Federal Reserve could put pressure on the Japanese Yen relative to other major currencies, potentially impacting the USD/JPY pair. On the other hand, the US Dollar has weakened after the Fed raised interest rates to a target range of 5.25%–5.5%. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell mentioned the possibility of further rate hikes, but this could limit the potential for the US Dollar to strengthen further. Market participants will be closely monitoring upcoming US economic data and the BoJ meetings scheduled for Friday.
Technically, USDJPY continues to move downwards, forming a second leg in the long-term downtrend. The next support level is at 138.70, followed by 137.70.​

Resistance 3	Resistance 2	Resistance 1	Support 1	Support 2	Support 3
142.00	141.20	140.22	138.70	137.70	135.50

XAUUSD

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) raised its interest rate by 25 basis points to 5.25%–5.5%, the highest level in over 22 years. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell acknowledged that inflation has moderated but stated the target of 2% is still far off. The possibility of the Fed pausing rate hikes provided some support to precious metals like gold. Meanwhile, the European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to raise interest rates but concerns about the Eurozone's economic slowdown may impact their decision. China's additional support for its real estate sector and domestic consumption supports a positive outlook for gold. Market participants will closely watch US economic data, including GDP and jobless claims, which could influence the USD and affect gold prices in the short term.
Gold made a strong comeback, displaying a bullish momentum that propelled the price beyond the resistance level of 1973. It is now heading towards the first resistance level at 1986, with the next target set at 2000.​

Resistance 3	Resistance 2	Resistance 1	Support 1	Support 2	Support 3
1982	1970	1960	1940	1931	1920

DAX40

European shares increased on Thursday, as traders reacted to a busy morning of earnings reports and awaited the European Central Bank's policy decision after the U.S. Federal Reserve hiked interest rates as expected.
The ECB is expected to raise interest rates for the ninth time in a row later on Thursday and keep the door open to further moves. The decision is due at 1215 GMT.
In a busy day of earnings, Nestle rose 1.2% after the world's biggest packaged food company improved its full-year organic sales outlook and reported better-than-expected first-half organic sales as it again raised prices.
BNP Paribas added 2.3% after the Eurozone's biggest bank beat analyst estimates for net income in the second quarter.
Safran rose 1.4% after the jet engine maker raised profit and cash flow forecasts while Airbus fell 1.9% after the planemaker removed an interim industrial target on the route to record jet output.
Volkswagen slid 3.6% after the German automaker lowered its 2023 outlook for deliveries as Renault dipped 0.8% even as the French car maker posted its highest-ever operating margin of 7.6% for the first half of 2023.
French call-center operator Teleperformance tumbled 10.9% after it downgraded its full-year revenue growth target and tempered talk surrounding its adoption of generative AI technologies.
DAX is hovering around the 16300 level which is the resistance level of the last June and May months. There is a possible price concentration around the current resistance area of 16,200-16,400, which could indicate the formation of a reversal pattern.​

Resi Level 3	Resi Level 2	Resi Level 1	Suppo level 1	Suppo level 2	Suppo level 3
16600	16400	16200	15650	15400	15200

 

[Zforex]

EURUSD

The European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to raise interest rates by 25 basis points (bps) to 3.75% at its upcoming meeting. This rate hike is widely anticipated, with a probability of around 97%. The ECB had previously implemented a similar rate increase in June, but it has since slowed down the pace due to concerns about a looming recession.
ECB President Lagarde has been vocal about the need to bring inflation back to the target level and has reiterated the commitment to achieve a 2.0% inflation target. The latest inflation data shows a slight decline in the Eurozone Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) inflation in June.
However, some ECB policymakers have expressed dovish views, suggesting caution in further rate increases. They point to softer-than-expected inflation data and concerns about the potential impact on the economy. The upcoming decision on interest rates in September is seen as critical and will heavily influence the direction of the Euro and its valuation against the US Dollar (EUR/USD).
The recent disappointing preliminary Manufacturing and Services PMIs for July in the Eurozone and Germany have added weight to the view that the region might be heading toward a recession, supporting the dovish expectations from the ECB.
The EUR/USD made a bullish move after yesterday's Fed meeting and is currently trading at the resistance level of 1.1120. At this level, we can find the upper parallel of the bearish channel, and it also represents the last support level.​

Resistance 3	Resistance 2	Resistance 1	Support 1	Support 2	Support 3
1.1210	1.1180	1.1120	1.1085	1.1046	1.1000

GBPUSD

On Thursday, the pound sterling (GBP) experienced a slight corrective movement amid growing fears of a recession in the United Kingdom's economy, which has raised concerns about the Bank of England's (BoE) aggressive policy tightening. The GBP/USD pair is under pressure, but overall sentiment towards the Pound Sterling remains bullish. This optimism is fueled by the possibility of further interest-rate hikes by the UK central bank, aimed at bringing inflation back to its target level.
The UK's Treasury Advisers have expressed worries about economic growth due to the BoE's aggressive policy tightening, which has placed a heavy burden on businesses. Additionally, the country's housing sector is grappling with the impact of higher borrowing costs, leading to a sharp decline in demand from first-time home buyers.
The GBP/USD is on a bullish trend toward the next resistance of 1.3000. A breakout of this level will take the price toward 1.3150.​

Resistance 3	Resistance 2	Resistance 1	Support 1	Support 2	Support 3
1.3220	1.3150	1.3000	1.2800	1.2750	1.2650

USDJPY

Investors are closely observing Japan's ultra-loose monetary policy as the Bank of Japan (BoJ) prepares to announce its interest rate decision. Expectations are that the BoJ will maintain its current monetary policy, which includes keeping short-term interest rates at -0.1% and 10-year bond yields at 0%. Japan's core inflation rate has surpassed that of the United States for the first time in eight years, indicating that policymakers may continue to adopt a cautious approach to ensure inflation remains above 2%. The differing monetary policies between the BoJ and the Federal Reserve could put pressure on the Japanese Yen relative to other major currencies, potentially impacting the USD/JPY pair. On the other hand, the US Dollar has weakened after the Fed raised interest rates to a target range of 5.25%–5.5%. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell mentioned the possibility of further rate hikes, but this could limit the potential for the US Dollar to strengthen further. Market participants will be closely monitoring upcoming US economic data and the BoJ meetings scheduled for Friday.
Technically, USDJPY continues to move downwards, forming a second leg in the long-term downtrend. The next support level is at 138.70, followed by 137.70.​

Resistance 3	Resistance 2	Resistance 1	Support 1	Support 2	Support 3
142.00	141.20	140.22	138.70	137.70	135.50

XAUUSD

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) raised its interest rate by 25 basis points to 5.25%–5.5%, the highest level in over 22 years. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell acknowledged that inflation has moderated but stated the target of 2% is still far off. The possibility of the Fed pausing rate hikes provided some support to precious metals like gold. Meanwhile, the European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to raise interest rates but concerns about the Eurozone's economic slowdown may impact their decision. China's additional support for its real estate sector and domestic consumption supports a positive outlook for gold. Market participants will closely watch US economic data, including GDP and jobless claims, which could influence the USD and affect gold prices in the short term.
Gold made a strong comeback, displaying a bullish momentum that propelled the price beyond the resistance level of 1973. It is now heading towards the first resistance level at 1986, with the next target set at 2000.​

Resistance 3	Resistance 2	Resistance 1	Support 1	Support 2	Support 3
1982	1970	1960	1940	1931	1920

European shares increased on Thursday, as traders reacted to a busy morning of earnings reports and awaited the European Central Bank's policy decision after the U.S. Federal Reserve hiked interest rates as expected.
The ECB is expected to raise interest rates for the ninth time in a row later on Thursday and keep the door open to further moves. The decision is due at 1215 GMT.
In a busy day of earnings, Nestle rose 1.2% after the world's biggest packaged food company improved its full-year organic sales outlook and reported better-than-expected first-half organic sales as it again raised prices.
BNP Paribas added 2.3% after the Eurozone's biggest bank beat analyst estimates for net income in the second quarter.
Safran rose 1.4% after the jet engine maker raised profit and cash flow forecasts while Airbus fell 1.9% after the planemaker removed an interim industrial target on the route to record jet output.
Volkswagen slid 3.6% after the German automaker lowered its 2023 outlook for deliveries as Renault dipped 0.8% even as the French car maker posted its highest-ever operating margin of 7.6% for the first half of 2023.
French call-center operator Teleperformance tumbled 10.9% after it downgraded its full-year revenue growth target and tempered talk surrounding its adoption of generative AI technologies.
DAX is hovering around the 16300 level which is the resistance level of the last June and May months. There is a possible price concentration around the current resistance area of 16,200-16,400, which could indicate the formation of a reversal pattern.

Resi Level 3	Resi Level 2	Resi Level 1	Suppo level 1	Suppo level 2	Suppo level 3
16600	16400	16200	15650	15400	15200

 

[Zforex]

EURUSD

The European Central Bank (ECB) raised key rates by 25 basis points as expected in the July policy meeting. However, ECB President Christine Lagarde's expression of concerns about the near-term economic outlook and inflation uncertainty had a dovish impact on the euro. On the other hand, positive macroeconomic data from the US strengthened the US Dollar, resulting in a sharp decline in EUR/USD.
The US economy grew at an annual rate of 2.4% in the second quarter, exceeding market expectations of 1.8%. Additionally, Durable Goods Orders rose more than expected in June, and weekly Initial Jobless Claims declined.
ECB policymakers Boštjan Vasle and Madis Muller made contrasting statements, with Vasle mentioning the possibility of either hiking or pausing rates in September, while Muller stated that future ECB decisions were no longer obvious. However, these statements failed to support the euro.
Later in the day, the US will release the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index data for June, with a forecasted monthly rise of 0.2%. Despite a decline in the Core PCE Prices in the second quarter, a soft monthly PCE inflation reading is not expected to be surprising at this point.
The EUR/USD selloff continued after the ECB meeting, and now the price is testing the last support level along the downward parallel of the bullish long channel. A potential recovery from this level may help the EUR/USD maintain a bullish outlook in the long term. However, if the price breaks below the current support level, it could lead to a further decline toward the next support level at 1.0850, opening new possibilities for the currency pair.

Resistance 3	Resistance 2	Resistance 1	Support 1	Support 2	Support 3
1.1210	1.1180	1.1120	1.1085	1.1046	1.1000

GBPUSD

Market sentiment has turned negative, and the United Kingdom is experiencing a decline in resilience amid an aggressively restrictive monetary policy environment. The GBP/USD pair is facing significant challenges as UK authorities express concerns about deepening recession fears resulting from consistent interest rate hikes by the central bank. The housing sector, factory activities, and retail orders in the UK have come under pressure due to the heavy burden of higher inflation and soaring interest rates.
The higher inflation and restrictive interest rate policy are putting a strain on United Kingdom households as their real income is being sharply squeezed. Britain's housing sector, retailers, and factories are facing turbulent times due to rising borrowing costs and uncertain forward demand. Despite these restrictive factors, the Bank of England (BoE) is preparing to raise interest rates further in an effort to achieve price stability.
The GBP/USD fell due to the dollar's performance and is now approaching the next support level around the 1.2700 area. As for EUR/USD, the bullish long channel may face a challenging shift in sentiment, potentially leading to a retracement toward the levels seen in May and June.​

Resistance 3	Resistance 2	Resistance 1	Support 1	Support 2	Support 3
1.3220	1.3150	1.3000	1.2800	1.2750	1.2650

JPYUSD

The US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) unexpectedly expanded at a higher rate of 2.4% compared to the previous quarter's 2.0%. Durable Goods Orders data for June also rose significantly by 4.7% surpassing expectations. Weekly jobless claims for July 21 remained below expectations, indicating a strong US economic outlook. The Federal Reserve may announce one more interest rate hike in September due to tight labor market conditions and the economy's resilience.
The Bank of Japan (BOJ) decided to maintain its benchmark policy rate at -0.1%. Additionally, the central bank announced its intention to allow 10-year government bond yields to fluctuate within a range of approximately plus or minus 0.5%. However, the BOJ plans to implement yield curve control with greater flexibility, viewing the upper and lower bounds of the range as references rather than strict limits during market operations.
USDJPY retraced towards the support area around the 138-137 level and rebounded while the dollar was still strong. The bearish channel has been tested twice around the 138-137 support area. A breakout may push the price toward the 135.00 support level.​

Resistance 3	Resistance 2	Resistance 1	Support 1	Support 2	Support 3
142.00	141.20	140.22	138.70	137.70	135.50

XAUUSD

Gold price rebounded slightly on Friday amid concerns of a potential recession and worsening US-China relations, supporting XAU/USD. However, the metal's upside is limited due to expectations of more interest rate hikes by major central banks. The recent hawkish outlook from the Federal Reserve and strong economic data from the US contribute to this sentiment.
The ongoing uncertainty and geopolitical risks may prevent aggressive bearish bets on gold for now. Nevertheless, the metal could face modest losses for the first time in four weeks as market focus shifts to next week's crucial US macro data.
Traders are closely watching the US Core PCE Price Index release for clues about the Fed's future policy moves, which could impact the USD and influence gold's direction.
Yields are coming back higher after yesterday’s US data and this also putting pressure on gold to the downside.
The gold selloff took the price down to the confluence point of the 1942 area, where we have a strong support historical level and the 200MA (200-day moving average) also resides. A rebound from this level is more likely than a continuation down, especially considering the possibility that the yields on the US10Y may retreat after yesterday's run. The likelihood of a breakout below the 1942 area is less probable to occur.​

Resistance 3	Resistance 2	Resistance 1	Support 1	Support 2	Support 3
1982	1970	1960	1940	1931	1920

DAX40

European shares declined on Friday, retreating from their multi-month highs achieved in the previous session. The pullback was influenced by a combination of factors, including a mixed batch of earnings reports and an increase in bond yields following the Bank of Japan's adjustments to its monetary policy.
The Bank of Japan (BoJ) decided to make its yield curve control policy more flexible by loosening its defense of a long-term interest rate cap. Consequently, Japanese government bond yields rose, and this move had a ripple effect on European government bond yields, leading to similar increases.
Capgemini, a French IT consulting group, experienced a notable decline of 7.5% in its share price in the context of corporate earnings. This decline came after the company announced its plan to invest a substantial amount of 2 billion euros ($2.19 billion) in artificial intelligence (AI) over the next three years.
On the other hand, French drugmaker Sanofi experienced a more modest decline of 2.5% despite raising its earnings forecast, indicating that the positive news was not enough to outweigh other market influences.
Meanwhile, luxury goods manufacturer Hermes witnessed a 3.8% increase in its share price, driven by accelerated sales in the second quarter, particularly for their iconic Birkin bags.
Additionally, the Pan-European stock and derivatives exchange, Euronext, experienced a notable gain of 5.2% after announcing the launch of a 200-million-euro ($219.88 million) share buyback program.
DAX touched the last resistance level of 16,400 for the third time. There is a possible price consolidation around the current resistance area of 16,200-16,400, which could indicate the formation of a reversal. Additionally, the RSI confirms a divergence on the weekly chart. Until we break the 16,400 level, this reading will continue to be the actual narrative possibility​

Resi Level 3	Resi Level 2	Resi Level 1	Suppo level 1	Suppo level 2	Suppo level 3
16600	16400	16200	15650	15400	15200

 

[Zforex]

EURUSD

The European Central Bank (ECB) raised key rates by 25 basis points as expected in the July policy meeting. However, ECB President Christine Lagarde expressed concerns about the near-term economic outlook and the uncertainty surrounding inflation. Her dovish tone weighed on the euro, while positive macroeconomic data from the US boosted the US Dollar, causing a sharp decline in EUR/USD.
The US economy grew at an annual rate of 2.4% in the second quarter, exceeding market expectations of 1.8%. Additionally, Durable Goods Orders increased more than expected in June, and weekly Initial Jobless Claims declined.
PCE data came close to what’s forecasted, not making that much impact but signaling that inflation may become sticky on some levels.
Today the data for CPI and GDP from the EU will have an impact on the EUR/USD and projections on inflation developments and the probability of recession in the EU.
The EUR/USD price is testing the last support level along the downward parallel of the bullish long channel. A potential recovery from this level may help the EUR/USD maintain a bullish outlook in the long term. However, if the price breaks below the current support level, it could lead to a further decline toward the next support level at 1.0850, opening new possibilities for the currency pair.​

Resistance 3	Resistance 2	Resistance 1	Support 1	Support 2	Support 3
1.1210	1.1180	1.1120	1.1085	1.1046	1.1000

GBPUSD

The GBP/USD experienced a sharp decline due to the overall strength of the US Dollar. This was triggered by investors reevaluating the Federal Reserve's policy outlook following the release of robust macroeconomic data.
In the second quarter, the US Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) expanded at an annual rate of 2.4%, surpassing market expectations of 1.8%. Additionally, there were positive developments with weekly Initial Jobless Claims decreasing to 221,000 and Durable Goods Orders increasing by 4.7% monthly in June, far exceeding analysts' estimate of 1%.
As a result of the 25-basis points rate hike on Wednesday, there is growing uncertainty in the markets about whether the Fed has reached its terminal rate. This uncertainty has propelled the US Dollar to outperform other currencies as we head into the weekend.
The GBP/USD is currently recovering from the 1.2750 level, but for any discussion of a new positive trend in GBPUSD, a breakout above the key 1.3000 round number is necessary. Meanwhile, the EUR/USD's bullish long channel could face a challenging shift in sentiment, potentially resulting in a retracement back towards the levels witnessed in May and June.​

Resistance 3	Resistance 2	Resistance 1	Support 1	Support 2	Support 3
1.3220	1.3150	1.3000	1.2800	1.2750	1.2650

USDJPY

The BOJ adjusted its yield curve control. They allowed 10-year Japanese government bond yields to fluctuate within a range of approximately plus and minus 0.5 percentage points from its 0% target. Furthermore, the bank offered to purchase 10-year JGBs at 1% through fixed-rate operations, expanding its tolerance by 50 basis points. These measures were taken to address concerns about the prolonged impact of monetary easing on financial markets and the real economy. BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda clarified that it is not a move towards policy normalization but rather a measure to enhance the sustainability of yield curve control. The bank also kept its ultra-loose interest rate at -0.1% and raised its median inflation forecast for fiscal 2023 to 2.5%.
USDJPY made a reversal and broke the 142.00 level with the US yields that are going beyond 4% for the 10Y. The next target will be the 144.00 level.
​

Resistance 3	Resistance 2	Resistance 1	Support 1	Support 2	Support 3
142.00	141.20	140.22	138.70	137.70	135.50

XAUUSD

The gold price (XAU/USD) remained relatively stable but slightly lower as investors prepared for important US employment and activity data this week. Despite printing the first weekly loss in four, the yellow metal's recovery on Friday was not enough to impress. The positive US growth numbers, combined with the Federal Reserve's readiness for further rate hikes, exerted downward pressure on the gold price last week. However, the softer readings of the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, the US Core Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index for June, provided some support to the XAU/USD price.
Lately, the market sentiment has been mixed, even with China's stimulus measures and Japan's bond buying. This has allowed the US Dollar bulls to regain strength, which in turn, put further pressure on the gold price as investors brace for this week's crucial US employment and PMI data.
The gold price found support at the 142.00 level and recovered toward the 1964 resistance level. The yield improvement is going up and is affecting the gold price down.​

Resistance 3	Resistance 2	Resistance 1	Support 1	Support 2	Support 3
1982	1970	1960	1940	1931	1920

DAX 40

European shares slightly declined on Monday as investors awaited data on Eurozone inflation for July, which is expected to show a decrease. This could potentially lead to the European Central Bank keeping interest rates steady in September. Heineken faced a 4.8% slide after lowering its 2023 profit growth forecast due to a slowdown in Vietnam impacting first-half earnings more than anticipated. Diageo and Anheuser-Busch InBev also fell over 1%. The flash reading of euro area inflation, scheduled for 0900 GMT, is anticipated to reveal a decline to 5.3% in July from 5.5% compared to the previous year. Despite raising rates for the ninth consecutive time, the ECB may still consider a pause in September as core inflation remains persistent. Meanwhile, an index of Eurozone banks showed a slight uptick of 0.2% after the European Banking Authority's annual stress test results revealed that three out of 70 banks in the European Union failed to meet binding capital requirements.
DAX surprisingly broke the 16,400-resistance level, fueled by hopes that the ECB may hold interest rates at their current levels. This is particularly relevant given the actual economic data, which suggests a possible recession if the tightening cycle continues to rise.​

Resi Level 3	Resi Level 2	Resi Level 1	Suppo level 1	Suppo level 2	Suppo level 3
16600	16400	16200	15650	15400	15200

 

[Zforex]

Asia-Pacific Markets Show Mixed Performance Amid China's Factory Contraction, Unemployment Rate Declines in Japan, and UK Housing Market Struggles in July 2023

On Tuesday, the Asia-Pacific markets exhibited mixed performance, triggered by China's factory activity entering contraction territory for the first time since April, as per the Caixin survey by S&P Global. The Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) for July registered at 49.2, falling short of economists' expectations of 50.3, as revealed by Reuters polls. This comes after yesterday's official statistics, indicating China's factory activity contracted for the fourth consecutive month, with a PMI reading of 49.3.
Meanwhile, in Japan, the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate for June decreased to 2.5%, slightly below the previous month's 2.6%, aligning with economists' predictions based on government data. Additionally, Japan's jobs-to-applicants ratio for June stood at 1.3, slightly lower than the Reuters forecast of 1.32.
Contrary to economists' expectations from Reuters polls, the Reserve Bank of Australia decided to maintain rates at 4.1%, instead of implementing a 25 basis points hike.
In Europe, several companies, including Euroapi, Uniper, Daimler Truck, DHL Deutsche Post, Covestro, BP, HSBC, Travis Perkins, and Diageo, are expected to release their earnings reports. Additionally, Eurozone unemployment data will be published.
In the United Kingdom, the Nationwide House Price Index for July 2023 experienced a notable decline of 3.8% compared to the previous year, accelerating from the 3.5% decrease observed in June, marking the largest fall in house prices since July 2009. This decrease in housing prices is attributed to subdued housing market activity due to stretched housing affordability for prospective homebuyers with mortgages.
Throughout the day, PMI updates will continue, encompassing figures from the Eurozone, including Germany, as well as from the UK and the US.
​

EURUSD

Eurozone HICP in July rose by 5.5% YoY, and headline CPI increased by 5.3%. Q2 Eurozone GDP grew by 0.3% QoQ and 0.6% YoY. German Retail Sales in June rose by 1.6% YoY, beating expectations. The European Central Bank raised interest rates to 4.25% but hinted at a possible pause in September due to easing inflationary pressures. In the US, the PCE Price Index fell to 3% in June, and the Core PCE Price Index dropped to 4.1% YoY. The US Dollar strengthened to 102.00 on Tuesday, despite softer US inflation data. Market participants will focus on global Manufacturing PMI and Germany's Unemployment rate. The US Nonfarm Payrolls report on Friday is expected to show 180,000 new jobs and a 3.6% employment rate.
The EUR/USD, after yesterday's correction, encountered resistance at the 1.1045 level and is currently continuing the selloff, now in the downtrend of the long bullish channel. The DXY is also touching the resistance area at 102. On a daily basis, the 100MA serves as the next target for EURUSD at 1.0900.
​

Resistance 3	Resistance 2	Resistance 1	Support 1	Support 2	Support 3
1.1140	1.1090	1.1050	1.0950	1.0900	1.0850

GBPUSD

The US Dollar has strengthened due to prospects of tighter policies by the Federal Reserve, supported by a strong US GDP report. Worries about a downturn in China also contribute to the USD's safe-haven appeal. However, optimism over more Chinese stimulus and expectations of the Fed ending its rate hike cycle might cap the USD's gains. On the other hand, expectations of more interest rate hikes by the Bank of England could support the British Pound. Market participants are also looking at upcoming economic data and key policy meetings for further trading opportunities.
The GBP/USD moved without direction at the beginning of this week. The next support is around the down parallel of the long bullish trend at the 1.2750 level. The resistance level is at 1.2900.​

Resistance 3	Resistance 2	Resistance 1	Support 1	Support 2	Support 3
1.3220	1.3150	1.3000	1.2800	1.2750	1.2650

USDJPY

The Japanese Yen is being impacted by the Bank of Japan's policy shift. The BoJ Governor has granted more flexibility to the Yield Curve Control (YCC), maintaining interest rates while making bond-buying operations easier. The central bank also conveyed a strong message about possibly moving away from its long ultra-dovish policy.
Investors are anticipating the United States Manufacturing PMI for July, which will be reported by the Institute of Supply Management (ISM). The economic data is projected to continue its eight-month contracting trend, influenced by higher interest rates set by the Federal Reserve (Fed). US factory activities are expected to reach 46.5, surpassing the previous release of 46.0.
USDJPY broke the 142.00 resistance level and is now at the median level of the long bullish channel at 143.00. Meanwhile, the yields on Japanese bonds continue to rise.​

Resistance 3	Resistance 2	Resistance 1	Support 1	Support 2	Support 3
142.00	141.20	140.22	138.70	137.70	135.50

XAUUSD

In July, the Chinese Caixin Manufacturing PMI fell to 49.2, the lowest level since January, impacting precious metals due to China's status as a major gold consumer. The Manufacturing PMI slightly improved to 49.3 but remained below 50, indicating contraction. Meanwhile, the NBS Services PMI declined from 53.2 to 51.5.

In the United States, evidence of easing underlying price pressures may prompt the Fed to soften its hawkish stance, potentially limiting the US Dollar's strength and supporting the gold price. The PCE Price Index decreased to 3% in June, while the Core PCE Price Index was at 4.1% annually.

Trade tensions between the US and China over technology access may add pressure to the gold price. China announced export restrictions on certain drones and equipment to the US.

Market participants are awaiting various US economic data, including the ISM Manufacturing PMI, JOLTS Job Openings, ADP Private Employment, Weekly Jobless Claims, Unit Labor Cost, and the Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report, which could influence USD price dynamics and create short-term trading opportunities around gold. The Sino-US relationship remains a focal point in the market. The gold came back after finding resistance at the mean line at the 1972.5 and the next support is at the 1948 level.
​

Resistance 3	Resistance 2	Resistance 1	Support 1	Support 2	Support 3
1982	1970	1960	1940	1931	1920

DAX40

European stocks slipped on Tuesday as weak factory activity data from Asia and some disappointing earnings stalled a rally in markets that had pushed several regional indexes to multi-year highs recently.
Asia's factory activity shrank in July, private surveys showed, a sign slowing global growth and weakness in China's economy was taking a toll on the region's fragile recovery. Eurozone factory surveys are due later in the day. Among companies that reported, DHL Group DHL fell 3% after the freight forwarder reported a slump in quarterly earnings as high inflation, the war in Ukraine and the ongoing energy crisis weighed on consumer demand and freight rates.
The main news in Europe is from earnings, with oil giant BP boosting its dividend despite a 70% fall in profit and HSBC launching a $2 billion buyback after profit beat forecasts.
DAX signaling a possible comeback as economic activity and economic data don’t show positive results and the possibility of a recession is growing even if yesterday's GDP in Europe was positive for the last quarter. The last support level is around 16220.​

Resi Level 3	Resi Level 2	Resi Level 1	Suppo level 1	Suppo level 2	Suppo level 3
16600	16400	16200	15650	15400	15200

 

[Zforex]

EURUSD

On Tuesday, the U.S. government's top credit rating was downgraded by Fitch to AA+ from AAA. This decision angered the White House and surprised investors since the debt ceiling crisis had been resolved two months prior. Fitch cited fiscal deterioration over the next three years and concerns about repeated last-minute debt ceiling negotiations jeopardizing the government's ability to meet its financial obligations.

The latest Eurozone PMI report indicates minimal change, with the headline staying at 42.7 and Germany's at 38.8. However, there is positive news regarding Germany's unemployment rate, which fell to 5.6% in July. Despite this improvement, the interest rate market suggests that the likelihood of another rate hike from the European Central Bank (ECB) remains below 40%.

The EUR/USD found support around 1.0950 after the DXY also inversely touched the upper parallel of the long downtrend. A possible correction may occur, taking the EUR/USD back toward the 1.1046 resistance level.​

Resistance 3	Resistance 2	Resistance 1	Support 1	Support 2	Support 3
1.1140	1.1090	1.1050	1.0950	1.0900	1.0850

GBPUSD

The recent gloomy prints of the UK's inflation data have created challenges for the Bank of England (BoE) hawks in their efforts to control high inflation amidst sluggish economic activities and workforce issues. Additionally, the British Pound (GBP) is facing difficulties due to the ruling Tory Party's latest disappointment, having lost some key seats in the by-elections.
The market's cautious sentiment before the upcoming BoE Monetary Policy Meeting, scheduled for release on Thursday, is posing difficulties for pair traders as they grapple with mixed feelings. Even though the UK central bank is expected to announce a 0.25% rate hike, uncertainties arise if the "Old Lady," as the BoE is informally referred to, decides to pause the rate increase, or adopts a dovish stance. In such a scenario, the EUR/GBP will likely experience further upside movement.
The GBP/USD found support at the 1.2750 level, showing a possible comeback toward 1.2800, as the dollar appears weak today.​

Resistance 3	Resistance 2	Resistance 1	Support 1	Support 2	Support 3
1.3220	1.3150	1.3000	1.2800	1.2750	1.2650

USDJPY

The Bank of Japan clarified that its recent policy adjustment does not indicate the beginning of a tightening cycle. Deputy Governor Shinichi Ichida emphasized that the flexible threshold for tolerance on long-term bond yields is a necessary modification to maintain its ultra-easy monetary policy position. The decision aims to continue with monetary easing while responding to economic risks both positive and negative, given the high uncertainties for economic activity and prices both domestically and internationally. Ichida stated that they are not considering an exit from monetary easing at this time.
USDJPY price action on the Hourly chart shows a double top pattern, signaling a possible reversal. The next possible support level will be around 142.00, especially with a weak dollar today.​

Resistance 3	Resistance 2	Resistance 1	Support 1	Support 2	Support 3
142.00	141.20	140.22	138.70	137.70	135.50

XAUUSD

Market sentiment remains cautious after Fitch downgraded the US Long-Term Foreign-Currency Issuer Default Rating from AAA to AA+. The downgrade is primarily due to expected fiscal deterioration and a high government debt burden over the next three years.
US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen disagrees with Fitch's decision, calling it "arbitrary and based on outdated data," adding to concerns about the US debt ceiling crisis and potential impact on the Greenback. Gold, being a safe-haven asset, may benefit from this situation.
Tensions between the US and China, with recent restrictions on drone exports, could also put pressure on the US Dollar. Furthermore, expectations of rate hikes by major central banks might limit the USD's upside and support the gold price.
Market participants are eagerly awaiting key economic indicators such as the US ADP Employment Change, weekly Jobless Claims, Unit Labor Cost, and the highly anticipated US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data. Traders will also closely monitor US-China relations for possible influences on the gold price.
Gold found support at the 200MA, and everything depends on the US10Y performance. The first resistance is at the 1956 level, followed by 1965. If the actual support breaks, the price will likely move towards 1931.​

Resistance 3	Resistance 2	Resistance 1	Support 1	Support 2	Support 3
1982	1970	1960	1940	1931	1920

DAX40

On Wednesday, European shares experienced a significant decline, reaching almost two-week lows. The losses were led by technology and auto stocks, as investors worldwide opted for safer assets following a surprise downgrade of the U.S. credit rating by Fitch.
U.S. futures fell by more than half a percent, and bond prices increased after Fitch downgraded the U.S. debt rating on Tuesday. The agency cited concerns about fiscal deterioration over the next three years and repeated last-minute debt ceiling negotiations that could jeopardize the government's ability to meet its financial obligations.
Regarding individual stocks, Siemens Healthineers, a U.S.-German medical device maker, saw a 5.4% drop in its quarterly operating profit due to declining demand for COVID-19 tests and delivery delays at Varian, a cancer treatment specialist.
Hugo Boss, a German fashion house, also faced a 4.1% decline in its stock price, despite raising its full-year outlook.
DAX make a gap down impacted by the Fitch news and the next support could be the 15800.
​

Resi Level 3	Resi Level 2	Resi Level 1	Suppo level 1	Suppo level 2	Suppo level 3
16600	16400	16200	15650	15400	15200

 

[Zforex]

EURUSD

The US government's top credit rating was downgraded by Fitch to AA+ from AAA. This decision angered the White House and surprised investors since the debt ceiling crisis had been resolved two months prior. Fitch cited fiscal deterioration over the next three years and concerns about repeated last-minute debt ceiling negotiations jeopardizing the government's ability to meet its financial obligations.
Private payrolls data that showed US companies added 324,000 workers last month, beating the consensus forecast of 190,000. Investors also reacted to news that the Treasury will issue $103 billion of securities next week, slightly more than forecast, and fresh on the heels of Fitch Ratings’ downgrade of the US.
Regarding the Eurozone PMI, the latest report indicates minimal change, with the headline staying at 42.7, and Germany's at 38.8. However, there was positive news in Germany's unemployment rate, which fell to 5.6% in July. Despite this, the interest rate market indicates that the likelihood of another rate hike from the European Central Bank (ECB) remains below 40%.
The EUR/USD continues to experience a selloff as the dollar benefits from positive economic data. The current support level is around 1.0900, followed by the 1.0850 level, which holds historical significance. Additionally, the 100MA on the 1-day chart may act as support for the time being.​

Resistance 3	Resistance 2	Resistance 1	Support 1	Support 2	Support 3
1.1140	1.1090	1.1050	1.0950	1.0900	1.0850

GBPUSD

The Pound Sterling (GBP) is primed for intense volatility, as the Bank of England (BoE) is widely expected to raise interest rates at its fourteenth straight meeting today.
The Bank of England (BOE) is considering a 25-basis point hike after last month's inflation rate showed some improvement, sitting at 7.9%, down from 8.7% in May. Despite the BOE's divergent stance from other central banks, high inflation levels and mixed labor and wage data may cause market apprehension about any unexpected moves similar to the half-point curve ball thrown at their previous meeting. The British economy has shown resilience, managing to avoid a recession for the time being. Traders will also keep a close eye on future guidance.
The GBP/USD at the support level of 1.2650 support area waiting for the BOE today event for direction. Any breakout may take the price down toward the next support at 1.2600.
​

Resistance 3	Resistance 2	Resistance 1	Support 1	Support 2	Support 3
1.3220	1.3150	1.3000	1.2800	1.2750	1.2650

JPYUSD

Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor Kazuo Ueda indicated that the tolerance band for the benchmark 10-year Japanese Government Bonds (JGB) will widen from 0.5% to 1.0%. The move pushed JGB yields to their highest level since 2014. The 10-year JGB rose to 0.65% on Thursday.
The Bank of Japan intervened in the market for the second time this week to slow the rise in benchmark sovereign bond yields. This move reflects the bank's determination to control sharp fluctuations in rates while allowing them some room to increase. The buying operation had immediate effects on the currency market, weakening the yen, and causing mild choppiness in the Tokyo stock market, which remained lower.
USDJPY found resistance at the 144.00 level and a correction is happening now, but it may be temporary as the next big target is the 145.00 level, which represents the lowest point from where the authorities declared the possibility of an intervention.
​

Resistance 3	Resistance 2	Resistance 1	Support 1	Support 2	Support 3
145.00	144.00	142.00	138.70	137.70	135.50

XAUUSD

The ADP National Employment report on Wednesday showed that private-sector employers in the United States (US) added 324K jobs in July, exceeding the anticipated 189K. This indicates continued labor market resilience, potentially shielding the economy from a recession and supporting the Fed's hawkish stance. The expectations are keeping the US Treasury bond yields elevated, leading to the possibility of a further near-term move up for the USD and suggesting a downside for the gold price. Investors have already digested the Fitch downgrade of the US government's credit rating to AA+ from AAA late Tuesday.
Policymakers' defense of US Treasury bonds and hopes for upbeat US economic growth are influencing gold sellers ahead of mid-tier US data related to employment and activities in July. Key data points include US ISM Services PMI for July and second-quarter readings of Nonfarm Productivity and Unit Labor Costs, which are crucial for determining Friday's US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) and US Dollar movements.
Additionally, China's positive Caixin Manufacturing PMI is providing support to the XAU/USD price, requiring strong negatives from Beijing to keep the gold bears hopeful.
Gold continues the selloff and finds support at the 1932 level. The negative correlation with the US10Y is high. For any breakout of the actual support level, we find the 1920 followed by the 1900 support levels.​

Resistance 3	Resistance 2	Resistance 1	Support 1	Support 2	Support 3
1982	1970	1960	1940	1932	1920

DAX40

European shares experienced their third consecutive decline on Thursday, mainly influenced by elevated U.S. bond yields and disappointing earnings reports, dampening sentiment before the Bank of England's interest rate decision.
The German DAX index suffered the most significant losses, particularly due to Infineon's 9% drop after the chipmaker predicted a decrease in fourth-quarter revenue amid a mixed picture in the semiconductor market.
London Stock Exchange Group's shares fell 3.5% following the announcement of its first-half numbers.
However, there were some positive developments as well. Shares of Societe Generale, France's third-largest listed bank, surged 3%, and ING Groep, the largest Dutch bank, rose 1.4% after reporting better-than-expected quarterly earnings.
Anheuser-Busch InBev saw a nearly 2% climb after the world's largest brewer reported higher-than-expected second-quarter earnings and maintained its 2023 forecast, supported by China's gradual post-COVID recovery and strength elsewhere.
Globally, stocks faced pressure as U.S. bond yields reached nine-month peaks following robust private jobs data and Washington's announcement regarding the refunding of maturing debt.
DAX continues the selloff and the support level of 15800 is important followed by the 15500.​

Resi Level 3	Resi Level 2	Resi Level 1	Suppo level 1	Suppo level 2	Suppo level 3
16600	16400	16200	15650	15400	15200

 

[Zforex]

EURUSD

Germany's June exports and imports were below expectations, with imports dropping by 3.4% and exports rising only by 0.1%. Both figures contributed to negative annual rates. On Friday, Germany will report factory orders. In the Eurozone, the Producer Price Index (PPI) declined by 0.4% in June, surpassing the expected slide of 0.2%, and the annual rate reached -3.4%. Eurozone Retail Sales data for June is also due to be released.
Regarding the US data released on Thursday, initial Jobless Claims rose to 227,000 for the week ending July 29, as expected. Q2 Unit Labor Costs rose at a rate of 1.6%, which is below the expected 2.6%, and Q1 was revised from 4.2% to 3.3%. On the positive side, factory orders rose by 2.3% in June, aligning with expectations. However, the ISM Services PMI declined from 53.9 to 52.7, falling short of the estimated 53. The market's reaction to these numbers was limited, as the focus is set on Friday's nonfarm payrolls, which are expected to show an increase of 200,000.
The EUR/USD is currently at the 100MA on the Daily chart, finding support while waiting for today's nonfarm payroll data. The next support, if the selloff continues, will be at the historical level of 1.0850. Conversely, if a correction happens, then the next resistance level will be at 1.1000.​

Resistance 3	Resistance 2	Resistance 1	Support 1	Support 2	Support 3
1.1090	1.1050	1.1000	1.0950	1.0900	1.0850

GBPUSD

The Bank of England has increased its key interest rate by 25 points to 5.25%, as widely anticipated. The hike was supported by eight out of nine members, with two members advocating for a 50-basis point increase.
According to the Bank's updated forecasts, the rate is expected to reach over 6%, a significant increase from the "just over 4%" projected in the May Inflation Report. This response comes as both the market and the central bank address persistent inflation.
Despite the rate hike, the labor market remains tight, and wage growth has stayed at 7.7% from three months to May. However, wage increases have not been sufficient to counter the acceleration in price growth over the past two years, failing to bring inflation back to the target level. Consequently, the Bank of England must continue its tight monetary policy stance, as it had warned in its statement.
The GBP/USD found support at the 1.2650 level waiting for today's data to find direction. A breakout of the actual support level may take the price toward 1.2600 followed by 1,2300.​

Resistance 3	Resistance 2	Resistance 1	Support 1	Support 2	Support 3
1.3220	1.3150	1.3000	1.2650	1.2600	1.2400

USDJPY

The Bank of Japan (BoJ) has raised concerns about its exit from the record low-interest rate and Yield Curve Control (YCC) policy due to its two unscheduled bond-buying programs and the defense of the easy-money policy. In the US, July nonfarm payrolls are anticipated to increase by 200,000, while unemployment is expected to remain at 3.6% and average hourly earnings are projected to rise by 0.3% m/m and 4.2% y/y. A strong ADP employment report on Wednesday showed a surge of 324,000 private sector jobs in July. Today's NFP data will be crucial for the currency pair, with data surpassing 200,000 being favorable for the dollar and US yields, leading to an increase in the price. Conversely, if the data falls below expectations, it may have an inverse effect.
USDJPY's price action on the Hourly chart indicates a potential double top pattern, suggesting a likely reversal. The next potential support level is expected to be around 142.00. If a breakout occurs to the downside, the price could move towards 141.50, whereas an upward breakout would encounter the next resistance at 144.00.​

Resistance 3	Resistance 2	Resistance 1	Support 1	Support 2	Support 3
142.00	141.20	140.22	138.70	137.70	135.50

XAUUSD

According to the latest data from the US on Thursday, Initial Jobless Claims rose to 227,000 for the week ending on July 29, which aligned with the market consensus. Additionally, the ISM Service PMI for July declined to 52.7 from the previous 53.9, falling short of expectations set at 53. Moreover, unit labor costs for Q2 increased by 1.6%, lower than the anticipated 2.6%.
Gold traders will closely monitor the US wage inflation and employment release on Friday. If the report shows stronger-than-expected figures, it could potentially prompt the Federal Reserve (Fed) to raise interest rates further throughout the year. This scenario would benefit the US Dollar (Greenback) but could create headwinds for XAU/USD. It's essential to note that gold tends to be sensitive to rising interest rates as it increases the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding bullion.
Gold reached historically important support in 1930 and has been hovering around this level, waiting for today's important US labor market data to determine its direction. If it breaks below the current support, it could head toward the 1920 support level. The 200MA (200-day moving average) serves as the primary resistance level to monitor.
​

Resistance 3	Resistance 2	Resistance 1	Support 1	Support 2	Support 3
1960	1953	1942	1931	1920	1900

DAX40

European stocks stabilized on Friday, recovering from a three-day decline, as a strong outlook from retail giant Amazon and other companies outweighed concerns over global economic growth. The Pan-European STOXX 600 index rose 0.1% by 0723 GMT, though it was still on track for its worst weekly performance in nearly a month.
On Wall Street, futures ticked higher due to Amazon's strong forecast, even as Apple's outlook remained pessimistic ahead of the US payrolls data.
In Europe, French lender Credit Agricole saw a 4.2% increase in its shares, fueled by positive quarterly earnings, driven by robust insurance and consumer finance results. Similarly, Italy's state-owned bank, Monte dei Paschi di Siena, surged 4.8% after reporting earnings that exceeded expectations for the second quarter.
On the downside, media shares were dragged down by WPP, the world's largest advertising group, which fell 7.5% after downgrading its full-year like-for-like growth forecast.
Additionally, Vonovia, Germany's largest real estate group, faced a 1.6% decline as it reported a €2 billion ($2.19 billion) second-quarter loss and wrote down the value of its properties by €3 billion.
DAX is rebounding from the 15800-support level and is now facing the next challenge at the 16000 short-term resistance level. The long bullish trend is evident, but it is currently forming reversal patterns as the price range in the last 3 months indicates weakness in the current trend.​

Resi Level 3	Resi Level 2	Resi Level 1	Suppo level 1	Suppo level 2	Suppo level 3
16600	16400	16200	15650	15400	15200

 

[Zforex]

https://zforex.com/en/analysis/3645/

https://zforex.com/en/analysis/3646/

https://zforex.com/en/analysis/3647/

https://zforex.com/en/analysis/3648/

https://zforex.com/en/analysis/3649/

 

[Zforex]

EURUSD

German industrial production dropped by 1.5% in June, surpassing the predicted 0.5% decline, according to data from the federal statistics office. The manufacturing sector in Europe's largest economy is facing challenges amid a downturn. It's expected that the German economy will contract again in the second half of 2023 following a winter recession that ended in the second quarter.
US employment data showed steady JOLTS Job Openings at around 9.6 million in June, with the private sector adding 324K new jobs in July according to the ADP survey. Challenger Job Cuts declined to 23.7K in the same month, and Initial Jobless Claims stood at 227K in the week ending July 28. Preliminary estimates indicated a 3.7% rise in Q2 Nonfarm Productivity and a 1.6% increase in Unit Labor Costs.
In the July Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report, the unemployment rate decreased to 3.5% with a participation rate of 62.6%. The US added 187K new jobs in the month, and average hourly earnings rose 4.4% YoY, higher than expected. The US Dollar slightly declined, but the job growth suggests a cooling sector while a shrinking unemployment rate may lead the Federal Reserve (Fed) to maintain its monetary tightening policy.
The EUR/USD corrected towards 1.1040 after Friday's movement and encountered a resistance level. It is now resuming its downward trend, respecting the down channel. The next support levels are 1.0920 and 1.0850. The 100MA on the daily chart is also playing support at the actual levels.

​

Resistance 3	Resistance 2	Resistance 1	Support 1	Support 2	Support 3
1.1090	1.1050	1.1000	1.0950	1.0900	1.0850

GBPUSD

The Bank of England's decision to increase interest rates has raised concerns about a deepening recession. As a result, the GBP/USD pair has experienced a notable decline due to the potential impact of higher interest rates on the UK's economic outlook. The previously robust labor market is now showing signs of weakening, with companies slowing down their hiring process amid the gloomy economic prospects.
The BoE's aggressive rate-tightening cycle is also affecting the UK's housing sector and strong labor market. However, this move is aimed at stabilizing inflation at 2%. Andrew Bailey, the head of the Bank of England, expresses confidence that inflation will ease to 5% by October, as the central bank plans to maintain "sufficiently restrictive" interest rates for an extended period.
The GBP/USD found support at the 1.2650 level waiting for today's data to find direction. A breakout of the actual support level may take the price toward 1.2600 followed by 1,2300.
​

Resistance 3	Resistance 2	Resistance 1	Support 1	Support 2	Support 3
1.3220	1.3150	1.3000	1.2650	1.2600	1.2400

USDJPY

The Bank of Japan maintained its negative interest rate policy and stressed the importance of continuing monetary easing to reach its 2% inflation target. During its recent meeting, the bank pledged to adopt a more flexible approach to yield curve control, using upper and lower bounds as references instead of strict limits. However, the bank also acknowledged the potential adverse impact of capping 10-year Japanese government bond yields at 0.5% on bond and financial markets. Nevertheless, it remains committed to supporting wage hikes through continued monetary easing.
The US employment report shows softer-than-expected nonfarm payrolls (NFP) at 187K (vs. 185K prior and 200K forecasted), with an unemployment rate of 3.5% (lower than the expected 3.6%). Average Hourly Earnings reprinted 0.4% MoM and 4.4% YoY. Fed Governor Michelle Bowman's hawkish comments triggered USD/JPY rebound, suggesting potential future rate increases if inflation progress stalls. Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic expects restrictive monetary policy until 2024, while Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee suggests considering rate-holding duration.
USDJPY came back on Friday towards the 141.50 support level but bounced back up bullishly as the dollar is strong. The next target will be to reach 144.00.​

Resistance 3	Resistance 2	Resistance 1	Support 1	Support 2	Support 3
142.00	141.20	140.22	138.70	137.70	135.50

XAUUSD

Friday's underwhelming release of the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data, combined with mixed signals from the Federal Reserve, caused the US Dollar to retreat from its multi-day high. As a result, the gold price managed to rebound from a support line that had been in place for several days. However, the tone shifted over the weekend due to hawkish comments made by Fed Governor Michelle Bowman, coupled with concerns about China's geopolitical situation, which put downward pressure on XAU/USD.
Additionally, the gold market's consolidation before the expected increase in demand from India, a significant customer for XAU/USD, is also contributing to keeping metal prices down in anticipation of important data and events from the US.
Looking ahead, XAU/USD traders should closely monitor the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) on Thursday and the Producer Price Index (PPI) for July on Friday to get clearer guidance. If the inflation data turns out to be positive, gold sellers may break the crucial support line established since October 2022, leading to potential disadvantages for the bullish sentiment.
Gold reached the historically important support in 1930 and has been hovering around this level, waiting for today's important US labor market data to determine its direction. If it breaks below the current support, it could head towards the 1920 support level. The 200MA (200-day moving average) serves as the primary resistance level to monitoring.
​

Resistance 3	Resistance 2	Resistance 1	Support 1	Support 2	Support 3
1960	1953	1942	1931	1920	1900

DAX40

In July, German industrial production experienced a 1.5% decline from the previous month, surpassing market expectations for a milder drop. This decline highlights the impact of higher interest rates on European manufacturing, especially after concerning PMI figures. Notably, Siemens Energy saw a significant drop of 5.8%, reaching the bottom of STOXX 600, due to issues at its wind turbine unit that are projected to cost 2.2 billion euros ($2.4 billion). Deutsche Boerse also slipped 1.6% following a downgrade from "buy" to "neutral" by UBS. On a positive note, PostNL rose 5.6% as the Dutch postal firm raised its 2023 operating profit guidance. Additionally, OHB experienced a significant jump of 33% after announcing a voluntary public tender offer by US investment company KKR for its outstanding shares. As expectations grow that the Fed and the European Central Bank are approaching the end of their tightening cycle, investors will closely watch inflation data from Germany, China, and the United States this week.
DAX is rebounding from the 15800-support level and is now facing the next challenge at the 16000 short-term resistance level. The long bullish trend is evident, but it is currently forming reversal patterns as the price range in the last 3 months indicates weakness in the current trend.

Resi Level 3	Resi Level 2	Resi Level 1	Suppo level 1	Suppo level 2	Suppo level 3
16600	16400	16200	15650	15400	15200