Daily Market Analysis by ForexMart

[Luis ForexMart]

AUD/USD Technical Analysis: May 4, 2017

The Australian dollar against the U.S. dollar declined during the Wednesday session as it dropped a whole level. The 24-hours exponential moving average (EMA) dropped abruptly while the 48-hour EMA broke lower than the 72-hour MA which signals a change of the trend in the market. There is a little interest in the market and the trend will most likely go downward. The short-term rally indicates signs of exhaustion close to the 0.7475 level. Traders could wait for an exhaustive candle to form since the pair seems to be oversold in the short term.

The pair dropped as big as an entire level for a straight run which is a pessimistic sign and it is not advisable to buy this pair for now. A fresh new low may form reaching a new low with the market eyeing at 0.75 level in the long-term. Gold market may have an influence over the currency as it moves ahead and traders try to break below the latest support level. The pair could go lower because of the gold market with the $1240 as the ultimate psychological level.

If the pair breaks lower, the Australian currency would drop very low while the greenback rallies that is favorable for most traders. This puts bearish pressure in the market and this could be reversed when it breaks the 0.750 level later on, but not soon.

The trend initially leveled at 0.7310 expanded to as low as 0.7414. A continuous decline could still take place towards the next target at 0.7300 region. The short-term resistance level positions at 0.7465 with the major level seen in the downtrend channel on the 4-hour chart. A break higher than the resistance level indicates completion of the downtrend.

 

[Luis ForexMart]

EUR/USD Technical Analysis: May 9, 2017

The EUR/USD edged lower yesterday at the rear of the anticipated results in the Presidential Elections in France wherein Macron got the victory. While the right-wing candidate, Marine Le Pen got 35% electorate votes.

The drop-off continued in spite of the higher than expected data for German manufacturing and European sentiment. The ECB council still discusses the need for normalization while on the tape.

Moreover, the consumer credit in the United States surge and Fed Evans further tackled the urgency for the reserve system to reach its objectives in inflation.

The pair moved downwards having touched its six-month high last Friday prior the French election. The exchange rate drove back under the current breakout region which is close to 1.0950 and appeared to be the near-term resistance, however, the 10-day moving average was held at the mark 1.0922.

Another resistance was identified within its previous week’s high found at 1.0999. The momentum have seen neutral while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) decline which probably indicates a descending positive impetus and consolidation

According to the hourly chart, the major will eased back towards the breakout level, plus testing a down-sloping trendline. The hourly momentum was still negative as the hourly MACD were printed in the red showing a decelerating sloping trajectory that pointed to lower prices.

 

[Luis ForexMart]

GBP/USD Technical Analysis: May 9, 2017

The sterling dealt with some volatile session yesterday after a slash within the top of 1.2950 region and resumed to cut lower. In light of this, the market could possibly pull back through 1.29 handle wherein a significant support level can be found. Further move below will reach the mark 1.2850 and the chance for a selloff remained short.

An ability the break over the region 1.2950 would likely cause the market to make an attempt reaching 1.30 area in the longer term.

Pullbacks are considered as the potential buying opportunities but the significant support is required and the market does not have any reason of not finding the buying pressure in the lower grounds.

The British currency appeared to be bullish while the volatility had a little impact to prevent the longer-term trader in the near future.

A break on top of the 1.30 range will trailed to the longer-term target which is 1.3450 area. Contrarily, expect more as the direction could drive towards a bumpy road.

Moreover, the buyers push the pair near its renewed peaks within 1.3000 amid European and Asian hours. The technicals seem positive as displayed in the 4-hour chart.

Resistance plunge at 1.3000, support entered 1.2900.

Buyers may not be able to advance the GBPUSD higher. Therefore, a side-trend is projected which means short weakening prior the bulls to acquire enough strength intended for another support. A breakout at 1.3000 would set us through 1.3100.

 

[Luis ForexMart]

NZD/USD Technical Analysis: May 9, 2017

The New Zealand currency had an initial break downwards during the Monday opening, but it earned a stable support near 0.69 region and made a reversal, bouncing around 50 pips.

The sellers were seen to moved back to the market while the volatility is expected to resume. The 0.69 mark remained significant, however, a break underneath 0.6880 will drive towards 0.6850. Moreover, the market continued to struggle a little bit because commodities seem sloppy lately.

Nevertheless, the kiwi is highly sensitive when it comes to commodities as well as to the sentiment of trading public with regards to different commodity-linked markets.

The long-term weakening of the market still exist and the selling would possibly acquire longer-term.

With that being said, the 0.69 level hold a significant support. As previously mentioned, touching the 0.6880 region would indicate that the market is broken and sellers will regain the control. In contrast to it, a move beneath 0.70 range would alter the long-term outlook.

Consider carefully the overall tone of metals and agricultural products since they provide some hints regarding the probable trend of the kiwi.

 

[Luis ForexMart]

USD/CAD Fundamental Analysis: May 9, 2017

The USD/CAD pair received some purchase support from the 1.3650 trading range, with the pair rebounding towards 1.3700 points during the later part of yesterday’s session. The currency pair has since then corrected and is now currently situated at just under 1.3700 points.

The pair’s recovery was mostly because of the continuous drop in oil prices as of late. Since the value of the Canadian dollar is highly reliant on oil prices, these two are very correlated and this is why the CAD has been suffering extreme downward pressure over the past weeks, with the pair managing to surpass the very important resistance point at 1.3500 points and will now be attempting to break through its next medium-term target of 1.4000 points. The weakness of the Canadian dollar has been further augmented by Trump’s continuous pressuring of the Trump administration to alter the NAFTA agreement. The US-Canada trade relationship is very lucrative and if the US economy decides to back off on this particular agreement, the Canadian economy could possibly reel from the negative effects should this come into fruition. In fact, the CAD as well as the Canadian economy is now undergoing a lot of pressure, with the Canadian housing economy undergoing immense pressure, among others.

For today’s session, there are no major news releases from both the US and the Canadian economy and as such, the USD/CAD pair is expected to consolidate harmlessly at both directions of 1.3700 for the duration of today’s session.

 

[Luis ForexMart]

GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: May 9, 2017

The GBP/USD pair spent most of yesterday’s session in a consolidation manner and even corrected lower since Macron’s victory had virtually no effect on the currency pair since it was pretty much expected by the market already. Although the currency pair had briefly moved above 1.2980 points during the first few hours of yesterday’s session, the GBP/USD pair had almost immediately corrected lower due to an absence of a significant follow-through. The UK market is expected to to undergo a risk mode in spite of the fact that the UK is virtually unaffected by the results of the French national elections since these are both expected to prop up the value of the euro and the sterling pound, although so far there have been no such move as of the moment.

The cable pair had dropped slowly but surely in value during the previous session although it was lended with some support coming from the 1.2930 trading range and is currently trading at just above this range. However, the bulls should be concerned that the GBP/USD pair has failed to surpass the very critical trading range of 1.3000 points even though the risk trades have been very favorable for the currency pair during the past few weeks. The cable pair had again attempted to break through this specific range yesterday but this attempt proved to be futile and the pair only resorted to correcting within its lower ranges. However, it has yet to be seen whether the pair’s range highs is actually solid enough and what the pair needs in order for it to be able to surpass its range highs. Traders should also take caution in the fact that there is a high possibility of the cable pair correcting while in the middle of its uptrend. The GBP/USD pair’s consistently stable price action was mostly due to a steady stream of positive economic readings from the UK economy, with this trend expected to push through at least until the near future.

For today’s session, there are no expected readings from both the UK and the US economy although the UK will be releasing its BoE rate announcement later this week. This rate announcement is expected to be the determinant of the currency pair’s short-term price action.

 

[Luis ForexMart]

EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: May 9, 2017

The EUR/USD pair had a short stint at over 1.1000 during the first few hours of yesterday’s session following Macron’s victory in the recently-concluded French presidential elections. The euro had spent almost the entirety of last week in an upward manner as the market awaited the results of this said election, and the euro had spent yesterday’s session in a selling manner aside from the initial move above 1.1000 points.

Macron’s recent victory has been pretty much priced in by the market last week, and as such, his victory did not come as a surprise to the market yesterday. This is why the duration of yesterday’s session was mostly spent by market players on a selling spree. This is why the EUR/USD pair had slowly made its way under 1.1000 points and had eventually reached 1.0930 points during yesterday’s trading session. The currency pair was unable to get any leverage from any kind of significant economic and geopolitical events, and this is why the pair’s movement yesterday was mostly dictated by the bulls’ positions unwinding in order for them to purchase the currency pair at a much lower prices in the short term period. The EUR/USD pair’s correction is not expected then to exceed 1.0800 points.

For today’s session, there are no expected economic and geopolitical events to be released into the market today, and the EUR/USD pair could possibly range and consolidate with a bearish undertone for entirety of today’s trading session.

 

[Luis ForexMart]

NZD/USD Technical Analysis: May 11, 2017

The New Zealand dollar surged during the Wednesday session with 0.69 level as the starting point. The 0.6950 gives a strong resistance and it seems that this will be followed by a consolidation. The market might need to push more but if this breaks higher than the 0.6950 level, then this could climb higher probably reaching towards the 0.70 and below.

Reversals might take long to occur despite that there is a high buying pressure below. Although the consolidation could stretch up to 0.6850 level and below matching the current trading levels.

The kiwi is highly sensitive to the commodity market which persists to be volatile. In turn, this also affects the New Zealand dollar. The kiwi is easier to monitor since there is a high demand for ETFs in the whole commodity market which is highly influential to the NZD/USD pair. If the pair breaks out and reach a new high, this opens more buying opportunities. Yet, there is a high volatility in the market that makes easier currencies are traded more in the market right now. The market waits for more blatant indicators in the market.

 

[Luis ForexMart]

USD/CAD Technical Analysis: May 16, 2017

The U.S. dollar declined in early Monday session following the announcement of Russia and Saudi to prolong OPEC output reduction. This gives a bullish reaction for the Canadian dollar and we still await of the market reaction. For short-term, this translates as means to stimulate the oil market but gives an inverse reaction to the market.

If the price breaks lower than the current psychological levels at 1.3650, it could reverse back to the 1.36 handle. This is a significant level of long-term and a breakdown lower than the said level is a pessimistic indication. Yet, there is still a chance for long-term traders to return and push through this level.

The plan of production cuts was not as effective as expected that makes it not probable in the future. Long-term traders are most likely looking for positions lower in a lower value and there is a higher probability for traders to return when the psychological level is sustained higher than the 1.36 handle. Alternatively, if the price breaks lower than the psychological levels, then the market could further go down towards the 1.35 level that is positioned as significant level.

Regardless, there will be high volatility in the market with the current oil market condition. The USD/CAD pair is relative to oil prices and if the price goes higher, the pair is expected to follow after. Traders should be cautious in trading for long-term since there are other factors that affect the pricing such as the housing market.

 

[Luis ForexMart]

USD/JPY Technical Analysis: May 16, 2017

The U.S. dollars against the Japanese yen had a very choppy trading during the Monday session. It currently hovers close to the 113.50 region as a form of consolidation and is gaining attention to traders recently. The former resistance level is now supportive at 113.75 and the 113.25 area. If the price breaks out in the current psychological levels and it is expected to gain momentum either up or down. The price is anticipated to move higher in the long run towards the 114.35 region.

If the price breaks lower than the 113 handle, the next target would be at 112.50 region. When a supportive candle is formed, it opens more buying opportunities when it breaks down although this may take some time. Pullbacks are also advantageous which the market knows its value.

The market is consolidating but reverses for some time as there are pullbacks seen every now and then. The U.S. dollar is being valuable in the market with the Federal Reserve trying to increase rates for the next months while Japan is not opting to be dovish with their policies. Currently, fundamental indicators for long-term tries to bring this pair higher as traders to open for long-term positions.