Daily Market Outlook by Hiwayfx

[HiWayFX]

EUR / USD
The EUR declined 0.13% against the USD and closed at 1.0985.
EUR/USD rose sharply to remain on track for a positive week, as the potential for a Grexit from the euro became even more remote on Thursday after a critical Greek vote passed in Parliament during a late-night session.
The pair is expected to find support at 1.0929 and a fall through could take it to the next support level 1.0875.
The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.1028, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.1073 .

GBP / USD
The GBP declined 0.02% against the USD and closed at 1.5514 .
The pound edged lower against the U.S. dollar on Thursday, after the release of downbeat U.K. retail sales data, although hopes for a rate hike by the Bank of England later in the year continued to support.
The pair is expected to find support at 1.5451 and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.5387.
The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.5626 and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.5737.

AUD / USD
The AUD Decline 0.77% against the USD and closed at 0.7355 .The Australian dollar slumped on Friday in Asia as a flash survey of China manufacturing in July showed a fall below expectations and previous levels, pointing to lower demand for key exports such as iron ore.
The pair is expected to find support at 0.7328 .and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 0.7299.
The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 0.7404, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 0.7451.

USD / JPY
The USD decline 0.01% against the JPY and closed at 123.92.
The U.S. dollar edged higher against the yen on Thursday, boosted by data showing that U.S. jobless claims fell to the lowest level since November 1973 last week and as progress on the Greek debt front weighed on demand for the safe-haven yen.
The pair is expected to find support at 123.64, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 123.37.
The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 124.19, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 124.47.

XAU / USD
Gold Decline 1.07% against the USD at 1,094.10 .
Gold prices fell hard in Asia on Friday as investors see a slowdown in China manufacturing as ensuring continued easy policy by one of the world's top yellow metal buyers and as continued to assess the scope for a Federal Reserve rate hike in September and geopolitical tension appears eased for now.
The pair is expected to find support at 1088.66, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1083.33.
The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1098.46, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1102.93.

 

[HiWayFX]

EUR / USD

The EUR declined 0.05% against the USD and closed at 1.1088 .

EUR/USD surged on Monday enjoying one of its highest one-day gains in nearly a month, as investors await the Federal Open Market Committee's two-day meeting starting on Tuesday for further hints on the timing of a highly-anticipated interest rate hike.

The pair is expected to find support at 1.0997 , and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.0900 .

The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.1161 , and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.1228 .

GBP / USD

The GBP declined 0.11% against the USD and closed at 1.5560 .

GBP/USD has been on the bid in a weaker dollar environment again, while we await the week to unfold with plenty of data to keep us on our toes.

The pair is expected to find support at 1.5504, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.5446 .

The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.5608, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.5654 .

AUD / USD

The AUD rise 0.72% against the USD and closed at 0.7268 .

The mid-Asian session witnessed a fresh demand for the Australian dollar, lifting AUD/USD to fresh session highs above 0.73 handle, largely on positions unwinding ahead of key – FOMC statement scheduled for release on Wednesday.

The pair is expected to find support at 0.7254 .and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 0.7231 .

The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 0.7312 , and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 0.7347 .

USD / JPY

The USD decline 00% against the JPY and closed at 0.0081 .

The US dollar reversed mild gains and fell into the negative territory against its Japanese counterpart in the Asian morning, knocking-off USD/JPY to session lows near 123 handle. The major lost ground once again and sipped in the red as the yen remains well bid on risk-aversion amid China turmoil.

The pair is expected to find support at 122.93, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 122.58.

The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 123.71, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 124.14.

XAU / USD

Gold Declined 0.14% against the USD at 1,096.90 .

Gold prices on Comex dropped in Asia, having failed to reclaim 1100 threshold in the previous session, as sliding Asian equities and broadly softer greenback offers little support to the yellow metal.

The pair is expected to find support at 1094.00 , and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1093.10 .

The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1095.90 , and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1096.90 .

 

[HiWayFX]

EUR / USD

The EUR declined 0.15% against the USD and closed at 1.1060 .

The EUR/USD pair reversed a part of yesterday’s slide and edged higher in the mid-Asian trades, largely as the US dollar corrected lower after the recent strength. While the European currency also bounced versus its American counterpart as traders continued to digest the unexpected dive in the US consumer confidence, awaiting the outcome of the two-day Fed meeting due later in the US session.

The pair is expected to find support at 1.1020 ,and a fall through could take it to the next support level 1.0980 .

The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.1100 , and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.1140 .

GBP / USD

The GBP declined 0.01% against the USD and closed at 1.5615 .

GBP/USD pair surged to a fresh weekly high of 1.5627, with the Pound finding intraday demand after the release of the UK GDP figures for the second quarter of this 2015.

The pair is expected to find support at 1.5549, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.5486 .

The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.5652 ,and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.5692.

AUD / USD

The AUD Declined 0.10% against the USD and closed at 0.7337 .

The bid tone surrounding the AUD/USD pair remains intact in the Asian morning, now pushing the Aussie towards 0.7350 – key levels as broad based US dollar softness paired with stabilizing commodities prices continue to boost the AUD bulls.

The pair is expected to find support at 0.7278.and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 0.7219.

The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 0.7372, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 0.7407.

USD / JPY

The USD decline 0.11% against the JPY and closed at 123.57 .

USD/JPY reversed previous gains and fell into the negative territory in the mid-Asian session, as the Japanese currency enjoys stronger than expected Japanese retail sales numbers while the greenback edged lower on profit-taking after the recent strength.

The pair is expected to find support at 123.13, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 122.70.

The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 123.90, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 124.24.

XAU / USD

Gold Declined 0% against the USD at 1,096.70 .

Gold prices eased in Asia early Wednesday, continuing a downward trend from overnight with eyes on the Federal Open Market Committee statement due later in the day.

The pair is expected to find support at 1092.30, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1087.90.

The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1099.90, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1103.10.

 

[HiWayFX]

IMF Unlikely to Bailout Greece

The bailout deal supposedly secured for Greece is in jeopardy because it is disqualified from receiving new bailout money from the IMF. This could mean that the entire bailout for Greece is at risk since Germany will not back any bailout with the participation of the IMF.

The Financial Times writes:
According to a four-page “strictly confidential” summary of Wednesday’s board meeting, IMF negotiators will take part in policy discussions to ensure the eurozone’s new bailout “is consistent with what the Fund has in mind”.
But they “cannot reach staff level agreement at this stage”. The Fund will only decide whether to take part after Greece has “agreed on a comprehensive set of reforms” and, crucially, after Eurozone bailout lenders have “agreed on debt relief”.
But the IMF has a good reason for backing out of this bailout, and it's because the deal is bad for Greece and it's bad for Europe.
The IMF rightly believes that any new bailout money for Greece should come with debt relief as well. The debt mountain Greece is currently saddled with is impossible to pay back, and it ensures Greece's failure because investors and financial markets will never have confidence in Greece while it is essentially in debt enslavement.

This actually looks like the first time someone is taking Greece's side besides Greece. It seems that all of the brinksmanship and stubbornness of the Syriza party and Yanis Varoufakis, the former Greek finance minister, has paid off in garnering some attention to the fact that Greece can only become viable if some of it's debt is forgiven and/or restructured.
The IMF will likely force the Troika's hand in the coming months by holding up any bailout for Greece by requiring debt relief. We don't believe that this development will throw Greece into default somewhere down the line. It's almost certain that the Troika will come to an agreement if the IMF continues to demand debt relief, but expect to see another drama play out when negotiations begin again and an agreement is made at the last possible minute.

 

[HiWayFX]

The U.S Nonfarm Payroll Report

The U.S Nonfarm payroll Report is put together and released on the first Friday of each month by the Bureau of Labour Statistics and it offers a complete illustration of the country’s economic state. The numbers released in the report include the unemployment rate, job growth, average hourly earnings and the manufacturing subcomponent of the report which shows specific growth or contradiction in the manufacturing sector every month. Excluded from the report are all general government and household employees, as well as non-profit organization and farm employees.

- See more at: https://www.hiwayfx.com/forex-hub/us-nonfarm-payroll-report#sthash.qIDgmYy7.dpuf

 

[HiWayFX]

EUR / USD
The EUR declined 0.09% against the USD and closed at 1.0905 .
EUR/USD rose slightly on Wednesday halting a three-day losing streak, amid mixed economic data in the U.S. ahead of Friday's critical jobs report for the month of July.
The pair is expected to find support at 1.0856 . and a fall through could take it to the next support level 1.0806 .
The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.0947 , and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.0988 .

GBP / USD
The GBP declined 0.15% against the USD and closed at 1.5602 .
BNP Paribas recommends long GBP exposure heading into Thursday's Bank of England (BoE) meeting.
The pair is expected to find support at 1.5533, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.5464 .
The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.5662 , and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.5722.


- See more at: https://www.hiwayfx.com/market-news/market-outlook-6082015#sthash.BCewZnzq.dpuf

 

[HiWayFX]

Stock Rout Spreads Through Europe After China Plunge

Chinese shares tumbled by the most since 2007, stocks in Germany headed for a bear market and commodities fell to a 16-year low. Russia’s ruble led a selloff in emerging-market currencies, while the yen strengthened and 10-year Treasury yields slid below 2 percent.

- See more at: Short teasers with links are not permitted.

 

[HiWayFX]

Asian Currencies Record Biggest Monthly Decline in Three Years

Malaysia's ringgit dropped more than twice as much as peers
Selloff in regional currencies spurred by yuan devaluation
Asia’s currencies posted their biggest monthly loss in three years, led by Malaysia’s ringgit, after a yuan devaluation heightened the risk of a currency war in the region as the U.S. prepares to raise interest rates.

Moderation Team Note: Link removed. Teasers with links are not permitted.

 

[HiWayFX]

EUR/USD languishes near lows, 1.1200 in sight

EUR/USD pair failed at 1.13 barrier in the European session and accelerated losses thereon, as the subdued Euro zone CPI and the broad based US dollar rebounded weighed on the major.

EUR/USD back near 1.1200 levels
The EUR/USD pair trades -0.32% lower at 1.1233, testing fresh session lows struck at 1.1227 shortly after EZ CPI data. The main currency pair snapped its recovery and extends its downslide for the third straight session as the common currency was sold into the sluggish Eurozone price pressures print.

The latest CPI figures from the euro zone for August posted a sharp rise from -0.6% to 0.0% month-on-month, while the yearly change decreased from 0.2% to 0.1%. The same applied for the core gauge on a yearly basis, which also shed 0.1% to 0.9%.

Moreover, a major turnaround in risk conditions during the European session, with the appetite for riskier assets improving, favoured the US currency at the expense of the euro.

Meanwhile, the main focus today remains on US CPI figures for August, which are expected to have risen a mere 0.2% over the year.

However, markets are likely to remain cautious as the Fed meeting commences later today, with final verdict on the rates due to be announced tomorrow.

EUR/USD Technical Levels
The pair has an immediate resistance at 1.1299 (Today’s High), above which gains could be extended to 1.1328 (Sept 15 High) levels. On the flip side, support is seen at 1.1204 (Sept 1 Low) below which it could extend losses to 1.1170 (Sept 10 Low) levels.