Daily Market Report - Tuesday, July 18, 2023


The US dollar pairs remain the centre stage of attention ahead of the US Retail Sales data for June. The dollar index, which tracks the U.S. currency against six major peers extend the recent fall on Tuesday morning, giving back some of the gains it made on Monday as investors looked ahead to retail sales data. The data is expected to increase to 0.5% month-on-month from 0.3% before.

Retail Sales data published by the US Census Bureau is a leading indicator that gives important information about consumer spending, which accounts for the majority of the economic activity in the country, so it is an important indicator of the economy's health and It can tell whether the economy as a whole is on the right track or not.


European and UK shares opened flat while US stock futures remain steady ahead of the next batch of quarterly bank earnings after JPMorgan kicked off the season on an upbeat note. On the earning front, Morgan Stanley and Bank of America are amongst those reporting the last quarter's financial results today. The traders and investors also should closely monitor the release of US retail sales figures for June, which is set to be released at 12.30 GMT.


Crude oil prices started the new week with notable losses after weaker Chinese economic growth raised concerns about demand in the world’s top crude importer. On the other hand, two of the three Libyan oil fields shut last week resumed production on Saturday evening, bringing a total output capacity of 370,000 barrels per day back to the market.


In the currency market, EURUSD slightly reversed from the daily highs following the mixed comments from ECB policymakers. European Central Bank Governing Council member Ignazio Visco predicts that inflation can slow more quickly than the ECB expected previously. While ECB policymaker, Klaas Knot said, “We’ll need to hike in July, more hikes shift the balance of risks toward too much. Hikes beyond July are possible, but not certain. Lots of data are due before now and in September. We are optimistic to see inflation hitting 2% in 2024”.


The precious metal registered strong gains last week after the US Treasury yields fell sharply in response to the lower-than-expected CPI readings, which also spurred an intense rally in precious metals. The metal started the new week flat but trades steady above $1950, supported by a continued decline in USD. A few of the key factors the gold traders should monitor today are the US retail sales and industrial production data.

Economic Outlook

On the data front, China's economy grew at a 6.3 per cent annual pace in the April-June quarter. The 6.3 per cent growth in China's gross domestic product from April to June outpaced a 4.5 per cent rate of growth in the previous quarter, according to government data released Monday. In quarterly terms, the economy grew 0.8 per cent compared to the first three months of the year.

Moving ahead today, the important events to watch:

US – Retail sales: GMT – 12:30

Canada – CPI: GMT – 12:30

Technical Outlook and Review

Today Euro is likely to face a strong resistance near 1.1300. On the downside, 1.12 remains the key support level, If the pair breaks below 1.12, the slump will quickly extend toward the 1.1150/40 mark.

The important levels to watch for today: Support- 1.1270 and 1.1300 Resistance- 1.1200 and 1.1180.

GOLD: The technical scenario is absolutely bullish after the last week bullish sentiment. While considering the recently bullish momentum the metal may find strong resistance above 1970. On the downside, any meaningful pullback now seems to find some support near the 1945 zones, below which the slide could further get extended towards the 1940/35 regions.

The important levels to watch for today: Support- 1952 and 1945 Resistance- 1970 and 1974.

Quote of the day “As time goes on, I get more and more convinced that the right method of investment is to put fairly large sums into enterprises which one thinks one knows something about and in the management of which one thoroughly believes.” — J.M. Keynes.
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