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Daily Technical and Fundamental analysis for multi pairs.

Discussion in 'Forex Trading Systems and Strategies' started by luckyanand12, Sep 20, 2019.

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What's better out of EA/robotic and Manual trading?

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  1. luckyanand12

    luckyanand12 Private, 1st Class

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    This is where I will share my view/analysis with graphs and supporting economic ideas. I owe a great deal to Sive Morten whose influence you will see in my technical analysis. I have been using Sive's style to analyse since 2011.
    Now, I feel like I must also contribute/share my trading ideas. This may help others and others may help me improve my analysis.
     

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  2. luckyanand12

    luckyanand12 Private, 1st Class

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    EUR/CAD analysis

    We analyse EUR/USD as well USD/CAD to determine trade setup on EUR/CAD because EUR/USD and USD/CAD are way more popular than EUR/CAD.


    Since formation of double bottom on daily time-frame of EUR/USD, we have a short term bullish bias on EUR.

    The downward move caused by FOMC press conference was erased by very gradual bullish move in EUR/USD yesterday. It shows that influence of so called hawkish Fed rate cut finished.
    [​IMG]

    If you have read our USD/CAD analysis, you know that we have short bullish setup in a channel and other supporting fundamentals.

    If USD/CAD is going to touch upper border of channel or at least break out or penetrate previous swing high on H1. And at the same time, EUR/USD is not bearish. EUR/CAD is more likely to erase previous swing down on H1. In addition to these factors, EUR/CAD has closed above blue line (XX hours - EMA) and RSI has crossed above 50 on H1.
    [​IMG]

    Risk: If EUR/USD breaks down the triangle(s) and close below bearish move of FOMC or if USD/CAD fails, whichever occurs earlier; get out of EUR/CAD.

    Target previous swing high.
     
  3. luckyanand12

    luckyanand12 Private, 1st Class

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    Yesterday's (previous) analysis of USD/CAD

    If market is still under influence of BOC statement and Fed's rate cut probability, 1.3339 should not be broken. If H1 candle closes above 1.3339, the bearish setup will fail, 1.3339 was high of spike before BOC statement.

    H1 candle didn't close above 1.3339 yet but influence of BOC and Fed rate-cut already seems to have faded. USD/CAD opened way lower than closing price of Friday and gave us chance to set SL to BE in sell trade but later it went up, filled gap and has made a channel. FOMC press conference didn't move USD/CAD lower. That's why we now believe that influence of BOC and Fed rate-cut has faded.

    Therefore, we buy now to trade this channel. Target is upper border of channel.

    Risk: it fails if price breaks below previous swing low.
    [​IMG]
     
  4. luckyanand12

    luckyanand12 Private, 1st Class

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    USD/CHF | Sep 20, 2019


    If previous setup fails, USDCHF will erase last upswing. So we have sell stop right at SL of buy and target is last/previous swing low that almost coincides with FIB38.2 of whole move up since Aug, 13. This sell trade will gain slightly more pips than SL of buy, thus we will break even in USD/CHF.
    [​IMG]
     
    #4 luckyanand12, Sep 20, 2019
    Lasted edited by : Sep 20, 2019
  5. luckyanand12

    luckyanand12 Private, 1st Class

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    USD/CHF | Sep 19, 2019

    Every retracement (shown in orange color) is 61.8% of its preceding upswing (shown in blue color). USD/CHF is more likely to take out last high according to this harmony.
    [​IMG]
     
  6. luckyanand12

    luckyanand12 Private, 1st Class

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    AUD/JPY | Sep 19, 2019


    Sell at 35% of recent move down.

    Target 38.2 of whole swing up on daily time-frame.

    Risk: it fails if H1 candle closes above 74.3

    Fundamentals: We expect the BoJ to keep its ‘QQE with yield curve control’ policy unchanged at the next monetary policy meeting ending today.

    Australian Unemployment Rate came out to be 5.3% vs previous as well as forecast of 5.2%.

    [​IMG]

    Update:
    USD/JPY and AUD/USD are more popular pairs than AUD/JPY, so I analyse these two pairs to determine trade setup on AUD/JPY.


    Trend on daily/D1 time-frame of AUD/USD is shifting bearish today. All we need is to get the price closed below trend predictor.

    Fib 50.0 didn't push AUD/USD to upside. No significant upward movement from this level, it shows apparent weakness in AUD.
    [​IMG]

    Let's look at USD/JPY now:
    [​IMG]

    Having seen significant weakness and no upward move in AUD/USD from Fib50.0, we are now targeting not only 38.2% of whole swing up on D1 of AUD/JPY but also 50% of the same.
    [​IMG]
     
  7. luckyanand12

    luckyanand12 Private, 1st Class

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    These are the trades I am running now. Will post daily here if I find a trade setup. I am now waiting for moderator approval. Thanks!
     
  8. luckyanand12

    luckyanand12 Private, 1st Class

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    Dear Moderator,
    Please suggest me how can I make images appear here. Just one image has appeared and there is 'X' sign in place of all other images.
     
  9. luckyanand12

    luckyanand12 Private, 1st Class

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    Sell EUR/JPY
    If you have read my EUR/USD analysis, you can see that EUR/USD broke support and USD/JPY is already in bearish move. We sold EUR/JPY right after support was broken following weak German Flash Manufacturing PMI. Target 117.45.

    Risk: It fails if this ongoing H1 candle is erased by bullish move in next few hours.
     
  10. luckyanand12

    luckyanand12 Private, 1st Class

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    USD/JPY | Sep 16, 2019
    Updated: 4 days ago

    We are selling at 50% retracement of recent move down on H1.

    Target 38.2% of whole swing up on daily time-frame.

    Fundamentals: Recent bulls in USD/JPY was caused because US/China trade war tensions have recently been faded away a little. US and China have spoken to ease tariff war on export import between the two countries and are going to hold talks in October.

    However, nothing concrete from US has been done yet, although China recently has exempted some goods from tariff increment.


    Even if China and US are going to give a very positive outcome in October's meeting. JPY has enough room till then to retrace because bullish sentiment has already been priced in.



    Note: JPY being a safe heaven currency, gains because of rise in global tensions or chaos like US-China trade war. For example, recent attack on Saudi Oil Facilities is a global tension and JPY gained immediately. All JPY pairs opened way below their Friday's close.


    Besides these factors, Let's look at analysis of Danske Bank:

    BoJ On Hold Next Week; USD/JPY Still Likely To Decline Into 105 Before Year-End

    "We expect the BoJ to keep its ‘QQE with yield curve control’ policy unchanged at the next monetary policy meeting ending on Thursday, 19 September. We remain rather cautious of such pricing and expect USD/JPY will continue to stay in a downward drift. We target 105 in 3M and still see substantial potential for going below that target," Danske says.


    Nevertheless, we are not targeting 105.000 in USD/JPY unlike Danske.


    [​IMG]
     

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