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EUR/USD Has the trend switched to long term Bullish?

Discussion in 'General Forex Talk' started by irongoose, Aug 22, 2012.

  1. irongoose

    irongoose Private, 1st Class

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    This pair is as volatile as gasoline on a fire!

    If there was war in Europe and every country was on fire and all the printing presses were destroyed all it would take is someone to just hint saving the Euro and the price would go up!

    Since July 24th the Euro has been climbing slowly from 1.20607 yet we keep hearing so called experts say sell on rallies and look out for bad news coming out of the Euro zone.

    In the last two days we've seen the Euro jump from 1.2350 to 1.2540 on a news release and the Fed's minutes talk about a QE3.

    So what do you think? Has the Euro seen the bottom and theres no turning back or are you still bearish on this pair and any thoughts of the good old days are going to be short lived?
     
    #1 irongoose, Aug 22, 2012
    Last edited: Aug 22, 2012
  2. Pharaoh

    Pharaoh Colonel

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    I think it's a combination of 2 factors.

    1. The USD is only in slightly better shape than the EUR at the moment.

    2. It's a "too big to fail" situation. Too much money is riding on the Eurozone holding together, so all the major players in Europe will do anything and everything to keep the Euro afloat. Think of it like the how the US is printing money and using the cash to manipulate the price of US bonds. Eurozone players are finding all sorts of means to try to manipulate the situation.

    Personally, I'm still thinking that it's only a matter of time until all things economic get very, very ugly.
     
  3. irongoose

    irongoose Private, 1st Class

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    To me it looks like a lose lose situation for the dollar, if the Euro starts to have any further problems the Fed gets scared QE3 and the price of the dollar plummets.

    If the Euro starts to get its act together or its even perceived there getting there act together the Euro gos up and the dollar plummets.
     
    #3 irongoose, Aug 22, 2012
    Last edited: Aug 22, 2012
  4. irongoose

    irongoose Private, 1st Class

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    Being it was the talk of a QE3 that rocketed up the price of the Euro one would think that if that talk is fading then this pair would start heading south again, but the price today has been barely effected at all.

    I wish some of those nice Libor folks would call some of there friends in the media and tell them how half the Euro Zone is leaving the Euro. :-D
     
  5. Pharaoh

    Pharaoh Colonel

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    We need a Euro Exit betting pool. :)
     
  6. dkami

    dkami Sergeant

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    Has the overall trend turned bullish!

    Well for me I would have to say it's to early to tell as I still have it in a down channel and at this point I would only call it a retracement,But what I find interesting in this pair is with this currant green weekly candle I see the TSI (indicator I use) coming out of oversold and cross the signal line

    Might be a good trade setup for you next week on the W1
    EU.
     
  7. FringFX

    FringFX Sergeant

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    can't say it is 'long term' bullish. you can only say so once eurusd takes on a substantial upward move. for now, it is too early to make conclusions.

    if you are interested in its trend, you have to monitor (and trade) it consistently.
     
  8. FringFX

    FringFX Sergeant

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    actually, eurusd strength has more to do with Draghi and Eurozone than QE3. QE3 is more like an icing to the current up trend.

    the market was relieved because of the recent positive developments/talks involving the Eurozone. Whether current talks will evolve into concrete actions is yet to be seen.
     
  9. irongoose

    irongoose Private, 1st Class

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    Its taken 4 days for the Euro to drop from 1.25617 to 1.24652 and only 9 hours to erase it !!
    With most of the erasing done in the last 4 hours.

    Is there actually anyone that still has dreams of sub 1.20 ??

    I still hear people on Bloomberg TV saying numbers like 1.18 yet there seems to be nothing that can stop the euro from climbing higher and higher!

    So once again I'll ask what do you think, has the daily trend switched to bullish or are we just looking at a typical retracement and the Euro will fall to sub 1.20?
     
  10. Pharaoh

    Pharaoh Colonel

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    If the Euro were trading against something of fixed value, I'd bet on it falling further. The issue is that the US Dollar is having a contest with the Euro to see who can scare investors the most. Add in various banks and other institutions trying to prop up their currency of choice, and it's hard to say which will fall faster.

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