FOREX PRO Weekly December 31- January 04, 2013

[squidge42]

Me too, looking for a bounce off 50% support, trend line and WS2

 

[alexoptimistic]

i can't see any reasons for entering long now... maybe after the FED's Minutes realease this afternoon.

 

[squidge42]

i can't see any reasons for entering long now... maybe after the FED's Minutes realease this afternoon.

that's why we wait for signals first...that will be our reason, especially at a confluence of supports

 

[Venelin]

Me too, looking for a bounce off 50% support, trend line and WS2
View attachment 7872

Considering 50% is the typical target of DRPO, bounce from here looks reasonable. In general weekly trend is still bullish and 1.3350 was undone, MPP @ 1.3127 was traded already-so the road to 1.3350 is clear! Just waiting for proper signal ! Cheers

 

[BeeKay8]

Hey Sive,

Hope you are enjoying the holidays.

Technically, everything makes sense. The Butterfly "SELL", which was the pattern used to enter the LONG trade to complete the weekly 61.8% target and daily 100.0% target has failed which allowed us to realize something was wrong with bulls and market has confirmed that today.

My question is, fundamentally, what is the reason behind this? With the fiscal cliff averted, shouldn't that be a major trigger for upward movement?

Also, from around December the 18th until now, it seems as though context has been changing everyday as you have mentioned. Is there a reason behind this? Was it because of the uncertainty of the fiscal cliff? Would the month also have something to do with it? Being December markets were probably a lot less volatile which created more difficulty for traders?

Thanks!

 

[squidge42]

Considering 50% is the typical target of DRPO, bounce from here looks reasonable. In general weekly trend is still bullish and 1.3350 was undone, MPP @ 1.3127 was traded already-so the road to 1.3350 is clear! Just waiting for proper signal ! Cheers

maybe K support at WS3 now...there's also an agreement with a 161.8 ABCD on the hourly at 1.306

 

[Sive Morten]

Hey Sive,

Hope you are enjoying the holidays.

Technically, everything makes sense. The Butterfly "SELL", which was the pattern used to enter the LONG trade to complete the weekly 61.8% target and daily 100.0% target has failed which allowed us to realize something was wrong with bulls and market has confirmed that today.

My question is, fundamentally, what is the reason behind this? With the fiscal cliff averted, shouldn't that be a major trigger for upward movement?

Also, from around December the 18th until now, it seems as though context has been changing everyday as you have mentioned. Is there a reason behind this? Was it because of the uncertainty of the fiscal cliff? Would the month also have something to do with it? Being December markets were probably a lot less volatile which created more difficulty for traders?

Thanks!

Hi Brandon,
you're asking such kind of question, that few can answer, but I'm not among them, unfortunately .
Usually such price behavior appears at significant reversal points. Market in fact has erased long-term bullish context that it was preparing within long period. This is never happen just occasionally. As you understand, in turmoil points a lot of blood flows, market nervous, volatility rises, surplus here thin price action due holidays and you will get what we have.
I feel crossing of techincal and fundamental here. With technical I mean fiscal year end - that's statements, closing contracts, fixing and all other staff. This leads to rising volatility. Fundamental is a fiscal cliff pressure. Now it is postponed, but not cancelled. I think that pressure on World's economy with US Debt is growing. On previous year we've seen the first opened abscess and now process is hidden somewhere inside, but sooner or later it will break cover. That's why, I suppose that US government start to move. I can't find any other explanation why they start to search for saving money and cutting of deficit in difficult times and were relaxed on good times. Looks like that it is more serious than it looks on the surface. When economy in recession and unemployment at 14% - increasing taxes, cutting social spending is really disadvantages measure.
Unfortunately I can't point on definite reason of market nervousness in recent time. May be this is a complex of problems.

 

[BeeKay8]

Thanks, Sive! I appreciate it!

 

[frankiebgood]

Thank you Sive,

Have a Merry Christmas, & Happy New Year.