Hi Trinantus
well, this is a bit question of experience, but some rules are exist still. First, initial reaction is always important. Second, starting reactions of thrusting moves are more significant than other reactions.
In general, try to understand swing, separate it on 3 parts - initial trhust, retracement and extension. Most significant will be initial reaction and first reaction after extension wave - other words, initial reaction of another AB=CD. It's a bit difficult to explain in writing.