FOREX PRO Weekly July 11-15, 2011

[Sive Morten]

EUR/USD Daily Update, Tue 12, July 2011

Good morning,
I prepare update a bit earlier, since tommorow I will not have access to computer. Next update will be 13th, I hope, but could be posted with some delay, since I will travel a bit.

So, looks like we judge about direciton correct in our weekly reserach - down.
Our bias for trading is bearish. But market stands just above 1.3934 AB=CD target and at daily oversold.
This is not good idea to enter short right now. I prefer to see some pullback in such cases. Second, we do not need nearest Fib resistance to enter, since market is at oversold.

on 4-hour chart we see nice area to watch at - 1.42 4-hour Confluence resistance. Stop could be placed above 1.4328 - 0.618 resistance and weekly pivot.
Target stands the same - 1.37 area. You can see on daily time frame, that 3 different targets point at it - potential Butterfly Buy, larger AB-CD and the same recent 1.272 extension of CD leg of AB=CD.

On hourly chart there is nice thrust down, so keep an eye on 1.3940 area - there could be DRPO "Buy", Butterfly "Buy" or something - any pattern, that could trigger the retracement up.

That's being said, trading plan for tomorrow as follows - our context for trading is bearish, no questions.
But market at oversold and 1.0 target, so it's better ot wait some pullback. Probably 1.42 area will be nice for that.
If you scalp trader - keep an eye on hourly time frame around 1.3940 area. You may make a short-term Buy trade, but this is risky enough since it will be against the trend and only context for it will be oversold.

 

[akalou]

thanks for the great analysis again...............
have a nice trip & journey mercies to & fro....

 

[jimmy.wibisono]

possible or not ?

Hi sive

Thanks for your analysis, i want ask question. Is it possible that today the price will be in the area of ​​1.37 ?

-Thank You-

 

[nicolebobbin]

I have a question here : while Euro has crisis and down, why AUD always down together with Euro, AUD doesn't have any serious crisis

Second question : why USDX strengthen but USDJPY dive down at the same time with EURUSD, it looks so confuse to understand when take into account the fact that Japan just had earthwake, tsunami and nuclear crisis, their production/export is reduced.

The world has many other option to put their money, AUD, CAD, NZD..... but all these currency decrease value, only JPY increase value, why is this weird

 

[MidnightRun]

Do I remember it right that yesterday Sive said that he would not be posting today because he will not have access to the computer?
Thanks.

 

[ArminM]

Do I remember it right that yesterday Sive said that he would not be posting today because he will not have access to the computer?
Thanks.

Next update will be 13th, I hope, but could be posted with some delay, since I will travel a bit.

There ya go.

 

[MidnightRun]

There ya go.

OK thanks, all clear

 

[Sive Morten]

EUR/USD Daily Update, Wed 13, July 2011

Good morning,
sorry for delay, but some time my time release will flow a bit, since I have limited access to PC.
So, we've discussed that probably market will show W&R of previous lows at B point because it oversold, and then turn to retracement.
Now that is happening.

The nearest area to watch for as a finish of this retracement is 1.4140 - Agreement that could lead to "222" "Sell" pattern.
the ultimate upside target is 1.4270 - also an Agreement.
Although currently you see, that market shows some pullback from 1.4077-1.4092 Confluence resistance, this probably just respect to that area and not a reversal, since market has shows nice thrust candle just before that.
Personally I like 1.4140 as first area where market could reestablish downward move.
Target looks like the same - 1.37 area

Guys, I will answer on all questions as soon as I will have sufficient time.

 

[Johnny2pips]

I am new here, so please help.
All is going to plan. After a sideways 1.40 all day long, it has now gone up to Sive's 1.4140 or 1.4175 on my MT4.
Then watching my 5m chart it started dropping to 1.4154 so I got in with a 1 lot sell. Took a large punt as my other 2 traders also predicted a move to 1.3820 and 1.3837 in the short term. Not often do all 3 predict the same.
My TP is at 1.3837 as the first leg.
Am I doing OK?
Thank you Sive for giving us your time and knowledge. Much to catch up.

 

[mp6140]

MP --- well, there gonna be more

still more upside to deal with, although at this moment we in a downside move, but that will turn into an upside soon enough.

3827 WILL be hit (3847 showing on the daily, but has a bit more downside left and should take at least two days to get there if it starts moving NOW, but we should see 4189 (with a possible 4203 if we break 4154 strongly ) before this sucker even THINKS about a decent short trend, giving you a breath holding drawdown,


for your interest, although i sure wouldnt bank on it at this moment as a trade, 3200 shows strongly on down the road.

I am new here, so please help.
All is going to plan. After a sideways 1.40 all day long, it has now gone up to Sive's 1.4140 or 1.4175 on my MT4.
Then watching my 5m chart it started dropping to 1.4154 so I got in with a 1 lot sell. Took a large punt as my other 2 traders also predicted a move to 1.3820 and 1.3837 in the short term. Not often do all 3 predict the same.
My TP is at 1.3837 as the first leg.
Am I doing OK?
Thank you Sive for giving us your time and knowledge. Much to catch up.