FOREX PRO WEEKLY July 14-18, 2014

gbpusd update

well, have no clue why but ok...double bottom or W&R and into right shoulder?

20140718_gbpusd_H1_1444.jpg
 
A Humble Request

I like to request Sive sir... kindly add a brief note on gbpusd,usdcad,nzdusd on our weekly research..
I will be so thankful to you..

usdcad 1hr.jpg
 
eurusd update

hm, closed last short..but I expect licking low, W&R, if we intend to pull back inside the channel...tricky, very steep channel...
worth to buy?

20140718_eurusd_M30_1529.jpg
 
eurusd update

sold with TP at LL...intend to buy just below LL, I think this will be phony break, we are running out of time and channel.....

20140718_eurusd_M30_1611.jpg


16.36 cET
ps
I might be too early, H4 candle should at least show move as a wave so I think PA will enter 1,3520 before into last wave down..
 
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eurusd daily conclusions

Why simple if complicated is possible?

Reconsidered whole move and especially so steep channel...it is very low possibility for this ED channel but I am more and more for following option that last move is 5th and an impulse..target would be below LL, projected is only one left, based on M30, 262 expansion of 1st at 1,3477..at 1,3473 is also 100% of 1st of bigger degree..looks fine...PA should not enter 1,35192 again for this count..if enters, complications ahead!

After that low price should enter 1,3575, above 1,36496 I believe we will be targeting 50%, if not 62%, IF not double top....

I think this is all for today....

Have a nice weekend!!!!

20140718_eurusd_H4_1735.jpg
 
gbpusd daily conclusions

A bit lower than I expected...but ok, daily swing low and I now expect daily swing high...on Monday that would be 1,71426, on Tuesday could be lower, maybe at 1,71167, just above 50% if low stays intact...biggest problem is timing, weekly does not fit to my count and new HH should not be established for next 2 weeks, EXCEPT if ......will check on Sunday....but much more bullish scenario on first glance...

Have a nice weekend !!

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sive

when you read statements such as these, would it not be logical to expect a bullish trend in the EU over the next few months and EJ as well?

'Societe Generale ran a study on 87 reserve managers and their findings give them (and now us) a likely path for various FX flows over the next quarter.They see managers diversifying out of the US dollar and into other currencies as follows;

  • EUR 67%'
source: Where's the money going to flow in Q3 2014? It's not good news for the dollar | ForexLive


and

'
  • Continuing the yield hunt BoJ inaction and Federal Reserve caution should not obscure one Japan risk that is playing out now – greater Japanese portfolio diversification into foreign securities
  • The GPIF’s impending portfolio changes, which could benefit USTs in particular'

source: UBS yen speculative short yen position no longer extreme 16 July 2014 | ForexLive
 
watch the DXY. it's coming off its recent top as you can see on the screenshots. also is unable to take out yesterday's daily high. now, for confirmation, we need those blue and green lines (the thick ones are the one on the daily) to cross down and blue stay under green. if so, there'll be further weakness in USD.

added 3 studies (modified TDI == better than traditional TDI, Michael Blau's SMI indicator with oscillator, and my own at the very bottom showing no green dots, but only red ones, although more small red ones indicating a weak sell tendency, ie the beginning of a possible down move but still in very early stage) at the bottom to show the underlying inner dynamic of PA: all pointing lower.

but note that although the histogram of Blau's SMIIO study is already bearish, ie under the zero-line, thus giving us a very early signal, mine is still holding above the zero-line, thus indicating that the down move, if there will be one, has not started quite yet--the only thing that has started is early signs of the possibility of a down move. that is why the histogram is still on the bullish side, ie above the zero-line.
 

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eurusd update

Oh, man, really? Repeat the drill?

Spike above high of this candle is to expect...above 1,35347 we are long...

20140718_eurusd_M30_2024.jpg
 
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