Actually, in case 1.2410 holds, we also have AB-CD in 4h TF with 100% target at 1.2666 (just near MPP).
I see too many factors pointing towards Upper Movement... hope it doesn't become a trap.
By the way 30min DRPO it's shaping accordingly... let's see if it'll succeed.
Hi Damian!Let me put today's trade as an example. Earlier this morning I said that if EUR/USD would respect 4 hour K resistance I would wait for the 15 minute trend to go bearish and sell a retracement. This image show the context time frame (4 hour chart) and the proper K-resistance area around 1 said:5571[/ATTACH]
Of course we see three 4-hour bars now coz the picture has been taken just 10 min ago. For the original picture/post look earlier in this thread.
So, big bull candle closed at k-resistance. and then we saw consolidation. During this consolidation, 15 M time frame showed a nice crossing of the MACDP giving a sell signal, as shown in the picture below.
View attachment 5572
I entered some pips below .382 retracement at 1,2485 (where the red horizantal triangle stands). with a Stop loss Above the high at 1,2512.
This trade is based on the 4h time frame (im selling a 4 hour k resistance) so the 3 period rule applies on the 4 hour chart..meaning the time stop was 12 hours long, if after 12 hours i was not on the winning side I would look for a way out. However, I expected (coz i wanna see a nice quick follow thru of my edges) some fast reaction on 15 M chart aswell, So I apply 3 period rule on both (being less stric on lower TF and absolutely stric on higer TF). After 3 full 15M periods of entry I was barely on the winning side, two periods later I exited the position at 1,2502. Why did I exit? I've written down the reasons on my trading diary "Cutted loss short, no follow thru of minesweeper entry. Weak dynamic pressure, close above .618". I had a few other valid points at the time I took the choice(daily and weekly oversold weakening chances of 4 hour k resistance to work + last 4 hour candle closed above 4 hour expansion targets + juicy area right above)..but I will take those 3 as the only ones coz they are the ones who made it to the diary.
Market continued moving up..hence I "saved" myself 10 pips per contract.
Given trading is a probability game, the chances of having a winning trade with a good ratio at the point where market had close above .618 where much fewer than before.trade did not worked as expected..reaching .618 is expected..that's why SL is above the high. I take the trade at .382 coz I really want to be in but I know .618 is very much expected since previous move of minesweeper technique will always be much greater and carry strong momentum, but certainly I do not expect a close above .618.
I am not always right as in the picture below, but I like playing the rules. And one of the rules kinda says "if it aint looking pretty , look for a way out..cut your loss short"
View attachment 5573
Sive master we really need you in this conversation I think, .