FOREX PRO Weekly June 04-08, 2012

cercamon

Private, 1st Class
Messages
42
Actually, in case 1.2410 holds, we also have AB-CD in 4h TF with 100% target at 1.2666 (just near MPP).
I see too many factors pointing towards Upper Movement... hope it doesn't become a trap.

By the way 30min DRPO it's shaping accordingly... let's see if it'll succeed.
 

Triantus Shango

Sergeant Major
Messages
1,372
yes BUT.... the next move up could also simply be the left side of the 2nd triangle making up a gartley/butterfly buy... there is at least a left wing. of course, doesn't mean the right will complete but something to watch out for. so i'm keeping an eye on 38.2 and 61.8 on the way back up from the last drop down today. if this turns into a gartley/butterfly, then the move up will be quite short-lived and we'll be looking at a deeper downslide.

Actually, in case 1.2410 holds, we also have AB-CD in 4h TF with 100% target at 1.2666 (just near MPP).
I see too many factors pointing towards Upper Movement... hope it doesn't become a trap.

By the way 30min DRPO it's shaping accordingly... let's see if it'll succeed.
 

asif faryad

Sergeant
Messages
194
Understanding your emotions when Trading:

As per Damians post i thought i would try and put a simple example of how your emotions should be once you have entered a trade based on your edge...

Ok those of you who have been to Vegas on a holiday must have visited one of the casinos...

When your on a night out for pleasure and you go in and play the fruit machines or what ever your game is...

Example you put $1 into a slot machine what do you expect $5?? i would imagine the majority would not expect ANYTHING as the probability is low and WE KNOW AND ACCEPT THIS and when nothing comes out it does not effect US AT ALL! We move on as if nothing had happened,as when on a night out if we have $100 for example we dont expect anything we are on a night out.....

THIS IS THE STATE YOU NEED TO REACH WHEN YOU HAVE ENTERED A TRADE AS IT HAS A HIGHER PROBABILITY OF WINNING BUT IS UNCERTAIN AS THE MARKET CAN DO WHAT IT WANTS AT ANYTIME..

Just move on to the next one ...... As 95% if we dont let our emotions get in the way the trades would have been great....

We say we accept the risk (Stoploss) but in reality when we start to alter ARE WE TRULY ACCEPTING THE RISK???

Thats all folks :))))

Have a great evening!!! to all colleagues.
 

seedof

Corporal
Messages
99
Commander Sive what about the sentimental analysis thread you started what is the update about it
 

Sive Morten

Special Consultant to the FPA
Messages
13,375
Commander Sive what about the sentimental analysis thread you started what is the update about it
Hi Seedof,
FPA is working with it - it needs some time to programm it and test. But process is underway.
 

pragmatic

Corporal
Messages
109
Let me put today's trade as an example. Earlier this morning I said that if EUR/USD would respect 4 hour K resistance I would wait for the 15 minute trend to go bearish and sell a retracement. This image show the context time frame (4 hour chart) and the proper K-resistance area around 1 said:
5571[/ATTACH]
Of course we see three 4-hour bars now coz the picture has been taken just 10 min ago. For the original picture/post look earlier in this thread.
So, big bull candle closed at k-resistance. and then we saw consolidation. During this consolidation, 15 M time frame showed a nice crossing of the MACDP giving a sell signal, as shown in the picture below.
View attachment 5572
I entered some pips below .382 retracement at 1,2485 (where the red horizantal triangle stands). with a Stop loss Above the high at 1,2512.
This trade is based on the 4h time frame (im selling a 4 hour k resistance) so the 3 period rule applies on the 4 hour chart..meaning the time stop was 12 hours long, if after 12 hours i was not on the winning side I would look for a way out. However, I expected (coz i wanna see a nice quick follow thru of my edges) some fast reaction on 15 M chart aswell, So I apply 3 period rule on both (being less stric on lower TF and absolutely stric on higer TF). After 3 full 15M periods of entry I was barely on the winning side, two periods later I exited the position at 1,2502. Why did I exit? I've written down the reasons on my trading diary "Cutted loss short, no follow thru of minesweeper entry. Weak dynamic pressure, close above .618". I had a few other valid points at the time I took the choice(daily and weekly oversold weakening chances of 4 hour k resistance to work + last 4 hour candle closed above 4 hour expansion targets + juicy area right above)..but I will take those 3 as the only ones coz they are the ones who made it to the diary.
Market continued moving up..hence I "saved" myself 10 pips per contract.
Given trading is a probability game, the chances of having a winning trade with a good ratio at the point where market had close above .618 where much fewer than before.trade did not worked as expected..reaching .618 is expected..that's why SL is above the high. I take the trade at .382 coz I really want to be in but I know .618 is very much expected since previous move of minesweeper technique will always be much greater and carry strong momentum, but certainly I do not expect a close above .618.
I am not always right as in the picture below, but I like playing the rules. And one of the rules kinda says "if it aint looking pretty , look for a way out..cut your loss short"

View attachment 5573

Sive master we really need you in this conversation I think, :D .
Hi Damian!
I see that you are becoming a serious trader by the day and I really appreciate your posts.
I think I have some of your problems too. I started to take a different approach. In your 15M example trade you acted in anticipation of the price action.
After really listening to Sive lessons, I began entering trades following the price action and not anticipating it. In your example there was no noticeable bearish price action, I mean no thrust to the down side, just slow movement. Yes, the trend on 15M was down but this is of less importance than the price itself. Of course it will bring not such a good entering point but I am sure that overall profit is far better, from my recent experience.
Another thing in your example is that, in fact, the more noticeable price action on 15M was to the upside. Take a look that price went to 61.8 directly, more quickly than the prior slow move down.
Just one more thing I noticed is that Daily trading that Sive is using is not by chance. One day trading is truly relevant and you can make an ideea of what is going on. 15M is never relevant per se, just in combination with other bigger time frame analysis. In your example, only a strong reaction on 4H or 1H chart could give you the idea that the market is responding to the resistance zone.
Just sharing my recent experiences.
Good trading to you all!
 
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