FOREX PRO Weekly, March 07-11, 2011

[Sive Morten]

Re: "Also I recommend you to move gradually through our Forex Military school."

Sive,
I guess I must have missed something you mentioned earlier. If this school exists somewhere on the web("military!" very relevant concept in these troubled times) could you provide a link?
Thank you

Hi, MidnightRun
Yes, school is here:
Forex Military School - Forex Peace Army Forum

Qwerty63, thanks.

 

[samfx]

Fibonacci retracement and expansion

Hi Sive,

Could you please show us how you would pick the A B C points when you draw Fibonacci retracement and expansion. Do you take the last move in the trend or the last bigger move in the trend, which move to pick?

And on your last 4hour chart for this week analysis you have drawn the trend line from bottom to top but not joining the bottom of the swing highs. Do you have any rules for drawing the trend line or to joining the swings or not to make up a good trend line.

Thank you for you excellent analysis and reply.

Sam

 

[Carlos Negron Montoya]

An excellent trading book!!

I've got a book about Fibonacci that have been reading and found that it's really worth reading.

It has excellent information difficult to find in other books.

There is a basic introduction until Chapter 5.
From Chapter 6 on, it rocks!

The best of all: it doesn't cost a penny!! It's called How To Master Fibonacci Trading (by Carolyn Boroden). Try to find it on the Web.

Best regards and... happy trading!!

 

[Sive Morten]

EUR/USD Daily Update, Tue 08, March, 2011

Good morning,
Our first part of trading plan has been accomplished - market has hit 1.4033 area and turns to some retracement.
As you remember, now we should estimate the possible depth of this retracement. It could be twofold:
1. If it will be B&B "Buy" smaller retracement (possibly to 1.39 only)
2. If it will be DRPO "Sell" - deeper retracement (1.38 area is possible)

But from daily time frame perspective we can't estimate it yet.

Daytraders:
Market has hit the target. Daily trend is bullish. So, you have no context for enter short - wait for some pullback. Initial level to watch is 1.39.

Intraday traders:
Look at 60-min chart. Market turns to retracement. You can enter on the short side from 1.40 area with target at 1.39-1.3920. Stop could be placed to 1.4030. This is just a scalp trade for running on a possible daily retracement. Take a look - AB-CD pattern makes an Agreement with 1.3920-1.3901 support area. That's your target. Don't marry any short possition, because daily trend is bullish.

 

[Sive Morten]

Hi Sive,

Could you please show us how you would pick the A B C points when you draw Fibonacci retracement and expansion. Do you take the last move in the trend or the last bigger move in the trend, which move to pick?

And on your last 4hour chart for this week analysis you have drawn the trend line from bottom to top but not joining the bottom of the swing highs. Do you have any rules for drawing the trend line or to joining the swings or not to make up a good trend line.

Thank you for you excellent analysis and reply.

Sam

Hi Sam,
Both of the ways, that you've talked about are valid. This is a question of time. The longer time distance between A-B-C points the longer it will develop. So, if you're short term trader, you should peak most recent ABC's. But also be aware of large ABC - because if you don't know them, they could negatively surprise you, when market will hit it...
The well-reliable ABC pattern has a thrust move on AB leg. C point should lay inside AB swing. And it's better if BC leg is meaningful retracement - not less than 0.382.

Well, I do not use trend line, definitely speaking - I do not trade them and rely on them. trend line in research was, just for notification of upward move, but not a strictly trend that could be used for trading.

 

[Icarus]

Hello Sive. Do you see DRPO sells on 4-hour time frames xagusd and xauusd? If so, is the target of this 1.61 from the most recent surge up on each? Thank you.

 

[Jyotiprakash Pal]

Take This one .. Hope i am Right ... made money on Sell .. thanks Sir

 

[Sive Morten]

Hello Sive. Do you see DRPO sells on 4-hour time frames xagusd and xauusd? If so, is the target of this 1.61 from the most recent surge up on each? Thank you.

Hi Icarus
This is not DRPO on 4-hour Gold. Poor thrust - too strong penetration of 3x3 a bit earlier.

 

[Icarus]

Hi Icarus
This is not DRPO on 4-hour Gold. Poor thrust - too strong penetration of 3x3 a bit earlier.

Thank you.

 

[Sive Morten]

EUR/USD Daily Update, Wed 09, March 2011

Good morning,
Looks like market gives us nice context for daily B&B trade. And I think, that it could start from 1.3840-1.3855 daily Confluence support area. (this is also a previous highs). The minimum target of this trade is 0.618 resistance from whole retracement move - around 1.3970.


On hourly chart you can see that market has hit 1.618 ABC target pips to pips that is in Agreement with this strong support area.
But I want to give you just one caution - market is builiding negative dynamic pressure and could form a Butterfly Buy with 1.27 target at 1.3840. So, if you intend to buy - better place stops in advance of this possible pattern, somewhere below 1.3830 area.

So, I think we could buy from 1.3840-1.3850 with stop below 1.3830. Target - 1.3970-1.3980.