FOREX PRO Weekly, March 07-11, 2011

[samfx]

Hi Sam,
Both of the ways, that you've talked about are valid. This is a question of time. The longer time distance between A-B-C points the longer it will develop. So, if you're short term trader, you should peak most recent ABC's. But also be aware of large ABC - because if you don't know them, they could negatively surprise you, when market will hit it...
The well-reliable ABC pattern has a thrust move on AB leg. C point should lay inside AB swing. And it's better if BC leg is meaningful retracement - not less than 0.382.

Well, I do not use trend line, definitely speaking - I do not trade them and rely on them. trend line in research was, just for notification of upward move, but not a strictly trend that could be used for trading.

Hi Sive,

This is for the Fibonacci expansion, that mean we should be drawing the Fibonacci retracement first to get the 0.382 level or lower ~ 0.682 than we can draw the Fibonacci expansion based on the retracement or the BC leg. Is that correct?

Sam

 

[Sive Morten]

Hi Sive,

This is for the Fibonacci expansion, that mean we should be drawing the Fibonacci retracement first to get the 0.382 level or lower ~ 0.682 than we can draw the Fibonacci expansion based on the retracement or the BC leg. Is that correct?

Sam

Yes, that's right. AB is an initial thrust up, BC is a retracement from it - it can't be deeper than A point (in this case there will be a double bottom).
CD leg is expansion of AB move, that starts from C point.

 

[Sive Morten]

Sive, i have followed for some time now. I need to get a good grip on what you are talking about. i have a copy of the book "Trading with Dinapolis level. There are so many indicators that are refered to in the book. From you experience, which ones do you think someone must have. And again can they function on a dukascopy jforex platform? Thank you.

As I know there is no authorized DiNapoli pack for this platform, so as for MT4.
But DiNapoli gives formulas for his MACD, Stochastic and Detrended Oscillator.
This is enough for trading with his method, although currently his modern edition pack includes also MACD Predictor and Oscillator Predictor. Some software also includes DiNapoli Thrust scanner.

 

[Sive Morten]

EUR/USD Daily Update, Thu 10, March 2011

Good morning,
daily context for possible B&B "Buy" pattern is still valid and it still could start from current strong Confluence support at 1.3838-1.3854.
Also we will take a close look at MACDP indicator, because it can show Stop Grabber pattern currently, if today trading session will close above 1.3891.

But, still, don't be hasty to enter on long side, and here is why:

4-hour chart
trend is clearly bearish, market has formed a stop grabber, that suggests taking out the lows - until this will happen, I will not even think about entering on long side.

1-hour chart
Trend is clearly bearish, market is forming Butterfly Buy with 1.27 target at 1.3830. It coincides with 1.618 target of ABCD pattern, and I suspect that it will be reached.

So here is our trading plan:
1. Wait, when butterfly will reach the target at 1.3830 area.
2. Look for 60min buy signals in this area
3. It will be safer if we will recieve additional confirmation from hourly trend - when it will turn to bullish, enter on shallow retracement
4. This plan allows us to place very tight stop just below the butterfly target - 1.3820, for instance.
5. Target is 1.3960 - daily B&B
6. If daily market will show MACDP failure pattern - then we can hold Longs even further. But this we will discuss tomorrow.
7. If market will break through 1.3830 - 1.618 target of Butterfly at 1.3800 area. This level also contains 3/8 Fib support and weekly pivot support. That's the next area to watch for.

 

[ALF]

MACD parameters

"3. It will be safer if we will recieve additional confirmation from hourly trend - when it will turn to bullish, enter on shallow retracement "

Hi Sive,

In today’s daily video you recommended as a bullish sign for developing the expected B&B ‘Buy’ pattern to be watched MACD behavior on 1 hr chart, right?

Having in mind that most of us are not using your special software, please clarify if the classical MACD indicator’s parameters should be (26,12,9), as most of us use by default.

Thanks.

 

[Sive Morten]

"3. It will be safer if we will recieve additional confirmation from hourly trend - when it will turn to bullish, enter on shallow retracement "

Hi Sive,

In today’s daily video you recommended as a bullish sign for developing the expected B&B ‘Buy’ pattern to be watched MACD behavior on 1 hr chart, right?

Having in mind that most of us are not using your special software, please clarify if the classical MACD indicator’s parameters should be (26,12,9), as most of us use by default.

Thanks.

Hi Alf, I do not investigate of quality of application the classical MACD, because it uses simple averaging method for signal line. But, if we are talking purely about the numbers, I think these ones could be applied:
8;17 or 18; 9

 

[Emmanuel Patrick]

Pls were on these web will I see the text version of todays video:unhappy:

 

[wsterneberg]

Dear Sive

I finished the Military school Chapter 1.
I have read a lot over the last 10 years about forex.
It is amazing how much fun and crystal clear your story is.
Thank you for that and I wish you many more inspirational analogies for the weeks to come regarding the creation of the Military School's Educational book.
Warm Regards,

Willem

p.s did not see a comment place on the thread of the Military school. If you do, you are most welcome to copy and paste this to the right place as you see fit.

 

[ALF]

Hi Alf, I do not investigate of quality of application the classical MACD, because it uses simple averaging method for signal line. But, if we are talking purely about the numbers, I think these ones could be applied:
8;17 or 18; 9

Thanks for your reply, Sive.

To avoid misunderstanding, please confirm how the numbers you gave ( 8;17) or (18;9) are connected with the Long MA, Short MA or Single line.

In the example I gave they are (26,12,9), that means:

Long EMA - 26
Short EMA - 12
Signal line - 9

Thanks.

 

[Sive Morten]

Thanks for your reply, Sive.

To avoid misunderstanding, please confirm how the numbers you gave ( 8;17) or (18;9) are connected with the Long MA, Short MA or Single line.

In the example I gave they are (26,12,9), that means:

Long EMA - 26
Short EMA - 12
Signal line - 9

Thanks.

That's right.