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Forex Signal (Wed May 11 2011, 9:30pm NY Time EST) - AU Employment Change

Discussion in 'Current Forex Trading Signals' started by Henry Liu, May 10, 2011.

  1. Henry Liu

    Henry Liu Former FPA Special Consultant

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    Australia Employment Change is similar to U.S. NFP (Nonfarm Payroll) and Canada Employment Change, this is an economic indicator for the Employment Changes in Australia, here’s the forecast:

    9:30pm (NY Time) AU Employment Change Forecast 17.4K Previous 37.8K
    AU Unemployment Rate Forecast 4.9% Previous 4.9%
    ACTION: AUD/USD BUY 47.5K SELL -12.5K

    The Trade Plan

    The deviation that we are looking for is at least of 30K. Historically a 25K~30K of difference has produced about 40~50 pips of movement in the direction of the difference about 75% of the time. Expect to see the effect of this news to last minimum 45 minutes to 2 hours; typical news effect should last under 2 hours. One other important news to pay attention to is the Unemployment Rate, which is expected to stay unchanged at 4.9%. If we don’t get a conflict with the Employment Change, then we will proceed with the trading plan.

    We’ll look to trade this using after news retracement trading method, we’ll wait for the market to retrace and stay out of the market during the release time. If we get a 47.5K of release, our bias will be to BUY AUD/USD; if we get a -12.5K of release, our bias will be to SELL AUD/USD. We’ll only enter after we see a decent retracement from the initial spike.

    For more information on my trading methods:
    Henry Liu's Trading Method


    The Market
    The AUD has reported recent strength gains against other major currencies and especially against the USD. Economic growth has come as exports were up 9.0% in March mainly because of foreign demand for iron ore shipments. Wednesday will report critical job figures as the unemployment rate is expected to hold at 4.9%. The unemployment change is forecasted to ease at around 17,000K after a grand rise of 37,800K in March.

    Overall, Australia hopes to report that job creation continues to be in effect because the Employment Change report is a strong indicator of the country’s economic state.

    Additional Thoughts
    Australia’s recent economic bounceback in job creations is creating a higher demand for workers in the private sector. Therefore, the RBA will look to hike interest rates in the upcoming months in order to influence the GDP and lower the CPI.

    Pre-news Considerations
    There are no pre-news consideration for this trade.

    DEFINITION
    “Measures the change in number of employed people during the previous month. A rising trend has a positive effect on the nation’s currency. Job creation is an important indicator of economic health because consumer spending, which is highly correlated with labor conditions, makes up a large portion of GDP.”


    Historical Chart and Data for AU Employment Change



    Thanks,


    [​IMG]
     
    #1 Henry Liu, May 10, 2011
    Lasted edited by : Sep 8, 2016
  2. Michael PB

    Michael PB Recruit

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    Thanks, very helpful. Where can I get the news in real time or seconds later?
     

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