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Forex Signal (Wednesday August 3, 2011 - 8:15am NY Time EDT) - ADP NFP

Discussion in 'Current Forex Trading Signals' started by Stavro D'Amore, Aug 2, 2011.

  1. Stavro D'Amore

    Stavro D'Amore Former FPA Special Consultant

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    ADP Non-Farm Employment Change
    Forecast 102K
    Previous 157K
    Pair to trade: USD/JPY
    Triggers we need: BUY 45 SELL -45


    Economical Impact: High
    Typical Result: Actual forecast is good for the currency
    Occurrence: This data Released monthly, about 2 days after the month ends.

    About our Triggers:
    If US Non-Farm Payroll Employment Change number comes out at +60 or less USD/JPY should go down by about 40 pips. We are using triggers of -45 for short.
    If it comes out at +170K or better USD/JPY should go up by about 30 pips. We are using for +45 trigger for long.

    Why do we care?
    ADP provides payroll services to many Businesses in the US. They use the data collected from their customers to derive the overall employment estimations. Job creation is an important leading indicator of consumer spending, which accounts for a majority of overall economic activity.

    Method to trade this: Stavro D’Amore Trading Method
    Please keep in mind possibility of Revision number before entering any of these strategies.

    Prior to the release (2-3 mins) I will be looking for a short term short position in USD/JPY and I will get out of this trade 30 seconds before the actual release or any spreads that should widen.

    I'd recommend spike trading as the best option when there is great uncertainty in the markets; also the liquidity is very good at the moment if you’re using an ECN broker.

    I will look for a 50% retracement in the original spike before entering a trade; I will sell half my position as soon as I hit the original high point of the first initial spike, and place a SL at entry price. My TP level would be Just before a resistance level or if the chart decides to form a level looking at a 15 min time frame.

    Historical Chart and Data for US ADP Non-Farm Employment Change

    What is US ADP NFP?
    The total nonfarm payroll accounts for approximately 80% of the workers who produce the entire gross domestic product of the United States. The nonfarm payroll statistic is used to assist government policy makers and economists determine the current state of the economy and predict future levels of economic activity


    All the best

    Stavro D’Amore
     
    #1 Stavro D'Amore, Aug 2, 2011
    Lasted edited by : Sep 8, 2016
  2. Aldo Colombo

    Aldo Colombo Corporal

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    Triggers

    Hi Stavro, your explanations are excellent, but i cannot accurately follow your numbers:
    forecast+45= 147 (not 170)
    forecast-45= 57 (more or less 60)
    Am I missing sth?
    THANK YOU
    Aldo
     
  3. Stavro D'Amore

    Stavro D'Amore Former FPA Special Consultant

    Joined:
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    Hi the numbers are
    Forecast 102K
    Previous 157K

    If we get 45 less from the forecast than sell
    IF we get 45 more on the forecast than BUY

    This is for pair USDJPY.
     
  4. juangecko

    juangecko Private

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    selling before ADP

    hello Stravo, thanks for helping us trade after and pre spike.
    Why you sold before spike on ADP?
    where i can read about your strategies.
    Thanks

    J
     

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