Daily Analysis - 24/03/2010


ForexPros Daily Analysis March 24, 2010

Free webinar on ForexPros - Inter-Market Analysis and 2010 Forecast for the
Dollar and Commodities

Expert: Nour Eldeen M. Al-Hammouri
When: Thu, Mar 25, 2010, 15:00 GMT

In this webinar Nour Eldeen M. Al-Hammouri will discuss the Inter-Market
Analysis and markets relationships. He will relate to the issue of how to
use Moving Averages to track the best support and resistance area, which
will be a signal for the Buy areas or Sell areas.

Click here to join free.


Fundamental Analysis: Retail Sales

Great Britain traders anticipate the publication of the Retail Sales. It is
a monthly measurement of all goods sold by retailers based on a sampling of
retail stores of different types and sizes in the UK. It is an important
indicator of consumer spending and also correlated to consumer confidence
and considered as a pace indicator of the UK economy.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the
GBP, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish
for the GBP. Analysts predict a future reading of 0.60%.


Euro Dollar

The Euro broke the support specified in yesterday's report 1.3502, and
dropped a little, then it bounced back to stop accurately at the resistance
specified in the report 1.3566 (the highest price after issuance the report
is 1.3561). After that, the dropped & went back to confirm the 1.3502 break,
and successfully reached the first suggested target 1.3422, reaching 1.3405
until the moment of preparing this report. With this move, the Euro finally
penetrated the important support area which contains 5 daily lows, which we
talked about in details yesterday. Also, with this move, the technical
outlook for the medium term has "officially" turned negative, and we do
expect the Euro to sink below 1.30 in the near future. As for the short
term, the resistance is 1.3446 & the support is 1.3390. If we break the
support at 1.3390, the price will confirm the break which has already took
place for the wide support area 1.3434-1.3462, the price will start falling
targeting 1.3326 and may be 1.3256. But if the resistance 1.3446 is broken,
the price will take off, looking for Fibonacci resistance levels which will
form today's targets 1.3501 first, and if broken 1.3611.

* 1.3390: Apr 13th high.
* 1.3326: Jan 28th high.
* 1.3256: Mar 27th 2009 high.

* 1.3446: the falling trend line from 1.3561 on the intraday charts.
* 1.3501: Fibonacci 61.8% for the short term.
* 1.3611: Fibonacci 50% for the drop from 1.3816.



The Dollar-Yen moved in a very tight range between 90.17 & 90.60 without
being able to break the most important resistance 90.78. Boredom is still
the headline, awaiting a potential break of 90.78, or starting to drift away
from it. Last week, we adjusted the lines that frame the current area, to
make the upper limit at Monday's & Thursday's top 90.78, which is very close
to last Wednesday's top 90.80, and close to Friday's top 90.70. And today we
will adjust the lower limit for this area, by re-drawing the rising trend
line from 89.61 to contain the recent price behaviour. The above mentioned
line is at 89.99. In case we break the magnetic resistance 90.78 we will see
the Dollar take control, and drive this pair higher, as we see it targeting
the important 91.60 first, then 92.31 which is important as well. But in
case we break the new trend line at 89.99, the expected drifting away from
90.78 will start, and we will be heading to 89.37 & 88.53.

* 89.99: the rising trend line from 89.61 on the hourly chart, after
* 89.37: Mar 2nd low
* 88.53: Feb 4th low.

* 90.78: Monday's high.
* 91.60: Oct 29th high.
* 92.31: Oct 27th high.


Forex Trading Analysis written by Munther Marji
for ForexPros.



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