ForexSwingTrading MWF EUR/USD Predictions

[fst2045]

I'm going to start posting the forecasts for the EUR/USD from my blog here. This is all based off of predictive analysis, which will include the direction the pair is likely to move, as well as the time and price it will likely reverse at. The intent is give you a clear and actionable plan to take and a specific time to take it. You will need to fill it in with your own technical and volume spread analysis. For more lessons and forecasts please visit us at Home | ForexSwingTrading.com

This is for Wednesday June 11th, 2014

The EUR/USD Forecast for today is still bearish. The seasonals are down, and we are in the middle of the cycle down. The pair has already dropped 140 pips out of a potential 220 pips, so I would like to see some pullback before entering.
I am looking for a retracement to the 1.3560 level at least and am only looking to short it if the VSA and technicals look good.

There’s a good chance it won’t make it back up that high, but if it does I think that’s the safe area. I am looking for the move to take place between 5:30 to 7:30 pm (GMT+7).

Trade Review – On Monday I said
“I am looking to short this pair. However I would like to see it retrace to the 1.3660 level and I am looking for this to happen around 14:30 to 16:30 (GMT+7) and between 21:00 to 24:00 (GMT+7)”

As you can see by the chart below, the move came 30 Minutes before I predicted, but I got the price and direction spot on. I missed the move, but I hope that some of you got it.

 

[fst2045]

In today’s EUR/USD Forecast we will look to continue to play this to the short side. The daily smart money indicator is down. However the 4 Hr. indicator is up, so we do have some conflict. The seasonal tendency is also down.

Because of the conflicting indicators I am going to look for the reversal to come around 1.3580. I will also probably wait for my 4 hr. smart money indicator to head down as well, so I may miss the initial drop. I will be looking for this to happen between 1:30-3:30 PM (GMT+7). There are also some other time frames later on in the day that are possible such as 4:30-7:00 PM but given that today is a Friday I probably won’t enter a trade that late in the day as I don’t like holding over the weekends.

Trade Review- On Wednedsday I said -
“I am looking for a retracement to the 1.3560 level at least and am only looking to short it if the VSA and technicals look good.

There’s a good chance it won’t make it back up that high, but if it does I think that’s the safe area. I am looking for the move to take place between 5:30 to 7:30 pm (GMT+7).”

As you can see by the chart below the move came at 6:30 PM but I was 5 Pips off and the high was at 1.3555. However I did manage to call the direction correctly.

For more lessons and forecasts please visit us at ForexSwingTrading.com

 

[fst2045]

In today's EUR/USD Forecast we will look to continue to play this to the short side. The short up cycle completed on Friday and started it's descent. In addition the seasonal indicator is saying down as is the 4 Hr. Smart Money Indicator.

With that said I am looking for the reversal area at 1.3570. It may not make it up that high but if it does that's where I'll look for the reversal. I'll be looking for it to come between 1 PM to 4 PM (GMT+7), 6:30 to 8:30 PM and 9:30 to 11:30 PM.

Trade Review On Friday I said -

"I am going to look for the reversal to come around 1.3580. I will also probably wait for my 4 hr. smart money indicator to head down as well, so I may miss the initial drop. I will be looking for this to happen between 1:30-3:30 PM (GMT+7)."

As you can see by the chart below I was 2 Pips from the high and the reversal came exactly at 3:30 PM, for a potential 58 Pip ride down. Congrats if you managed to score some pips from this!

 

[fst2045]

If you entered the EUR/USD trade yesterday at 1.3570 I would recommend closing it either at break even or for a 5 pip loss. It does appear that the cycle has shifted to the upside. However the seasonals and other factors say it's down, while the technicals say it's up. When things become convoluted like this I'd rather stand aside.

 

[fst2045]

For today's EUR/USD forecast I recommending for you to stand aside. As I mentioned in Tuesday's trade update it looks like the market was shifting to the upside, which it did. However the up cycle is nearing completion however it will likely still go a bit higher or sideways for awhile, before it drops. Since it's Friday I see no need to rush into this.

 

[fst2045]

The EUR/USD Forecast today is looking down. The cycle up finished last Friday and then started it's descent on the same day. I expected some movement sideways or even more to the upside but we never got it.

Today I am looking for it to retrace to around the 1.3645 level before it continues to drop. This is where I would look for the short and I expect this to come sometime around 13:00 to 15:00 (GMT+7) or 16:30 to 20:30 (GMT+7)

The seasonals are also looking bearish.

For more lessons and forecasts please visit us at ForexSwingTrading.com

 

[fst2045]

In today's EUR/USD forecast I am going to recommend standing aside. The cycle direction isn't clear and volume is telling me nothing. Until the direction becomes more clear I would do nothing.

 

[fst2045]

For today's EUR/USD Forecast I am going to be looking to the short side with the entry at around 1.3620. I will be looking for the drop to come between 12:30 to 4pm (GMT +7)

 

[fst2045]

For today's EUR/USD forecast we will be looking for continued movement to the upside. The cycle has shifted. Look to a pullback to the 1.3620 level to occur between 14:30 to 18:30 (GMT+7).

Trade review if you took my advice on Friday you likely lost a few pips. The trade did fall as I predicted but only by about 7 or 8 pips. It then reversed and I lost about 15 pips on the trade.

 

[fst2045]

In today's EUR/USD Forecast I am looking for the cycle to turn down. It has broken below the 1.3675 level which makes me think that it is starting to break down. However the range is looking very small and thus I think for the time being movement may be limited. So with that said I would recommend standing aside. There is some potential upside left as well as a lot of sideways movement before the drop.