Is the EURUSD plunge a medium-term buying opportunity?


EURUSD fell heavily towards a fresh 6-month low and broke several supports during the process after the US dollar extended the bullish rally. ECB's possible pause in rate hike sentiments has been keeping the euro under pressure lately. However, the President of the European Central Bank (ECB) Christine Lagarde signalled on Monday that borrowing costs may have reached their peak but will remain high for as long as it takes to curb inflation.

EURUSD largely unchanged on Wednesday, holding close to the multi-month low after the release of weak German economic data. Data published on Wednesday revealed that the German consumer confidence dipped further in October. On Monday, the German IFO business climate report showed that the business climate index dropped from 85.8 in August to 85.7 in September.

Cooling inflation, nearing the end of ECB hikes send EURUSD to 6-month lows

September European Central Bank meeting seems to have implemented its last 25 basis point rate hike in the current tightening cycle. The European Central Bank hiked interest rates to a record level. Its 10th consecutive rate hike bumped the bank's deposit rate by 25 basis points up to 4%. While ECB President Christine Lagarde refrained from affirming that the European Union has hit its interest rate cycle’s peak.

Inflation is also slowing in the European regions. The last CPI report showed the annual inflation in the Eurozone has come in lower than expected at 5.2% for August, down from 5.3% in July, but still well above the ECB 2% target. In Germany, the preliminary estimate showed that in August 2023, the year-on-year consumer price inflation rate slightly decreased to 6.1 percent from 6.2 percent in the previous month.

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