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Forex Analytics

GBP/JPY: buy targets - 195.50 and 198.00
6 August 2015

By: Dmitriy Chernovolov

-GBP/JPY broke resistance level 194.00
-Next buy targets - 195.50 and 198.00

GBP/JPY continues to rise after the pair earlier broke above the resistance level 194.00 (which stopped the previous sharp minor impulse wave 1 in the middle of July, as you can see below). The breakout of this resistance level accelerated the active minor impulse wave 3 – which belongs to the 3rd intermediate impulse wave (3) from the start of July.

GBP/JPY is likely to rise further in the active impulse waves 3 and (3) toward the next buy target at the resistance level 195.50 (which stopped previous impulse (1)) – the breakout of which can lead to further gains toward 198.00.

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GBP/JPY: buy targets - 195.50 and 198.00 - Forex Analytics

 

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Forex Analytics

AUD/CAD: sell target - 0.9600
6 August 2015

By: Dmitriy Chernovolov

-AUD/CAD reached buy target 0.9750
-Next sell target - 0.9600

AUD/CAD recently reversed down after the price reached the resistance level 0.9750, which was set as the buy target in our previous forecast for this currency pair. The resistance zone near the resistance level 0.9750 was strengthened by the upper daily Bollinger Band and by the 50% Fibonacci Correction of the previous downward impulse from the middle of January (as you can see below). The downward reversal from 0.9750 completed the earlier minor correction 2.

AUD/CAD is likely to fall further in the active impulse wave 3 toward the next sell target at the support level 0.9600. Strong resistance remains at 0.9750.

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AUD/CAD: sell target - 0.9600 - Forex Analytics

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

Large banks: trading USD/JPY
6 August 2015

Open positions

Citi: Hold LONG from 124.80, TAKE PROFIT 128.50, STOP LOSS 122.95 (entered on August 5).

JP Morgan: Hold LONG from 124.37, TAKE PROFIT 129.00, STOP LOSS 121.35 (entered on August 5).

Danske Bank: Hold LONG from 123.86, TAKE PROFIT 125.86, STOP LOSS 123.78 (entered on August 3).

Limit orders

Morgan Stanley: BUY at 123.80, TAKE PROFIT 126.00, STOP LOSS 123.40 (entered on August 5).

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Large banks: trading USD/JPY - Forex Analytics

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

Forex trading plan for August 7

By Elizabeth Belugina



US dollar remains strong vs. other major currencies. Traders are rather positive about the upcoming release of the American Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) figures on Friday, at 12:30 GMT. Consensus forecast is that American economy has gained 220-225K jobs in July, while unemployment rate remained unchanged at 5.3%. If the reading comes between 200K and 220K, US dollar will be OK, though there may be a negative short-term reaction. A reading below 200K will provoke USD selloff, while NFP around 250K will make the greenback broadly strengthen.

EUR/USD remained above 1.0900. The pair is trading between 1.0950 and 1.0850. Good NFP will make the euro decline towards 1.0800/1.0750, but if US data disappoint we will see a spike towards 1.1050/1.1100. There will be some figures in the euro area, but America will remain in the center of market’s attention.

The super Thursday for British pound did not leave up to expectations. GBP/USD slid below 1.5550, but found support in the 1.5460 area (July 24 low). Only one MPC (Monetary Policy Committee) member voted for the rate hike vs. at least two expected. In addition, the Bank of England’s Governor Carney has mentioned low commodity prices and said that higher sterling affects inflation. However, fundamentally the central bank’s position did not change much. Rate hikes around the beginning of the next year is still on the table. Cable fell because the expectations of the market fueled by the previous Bank of England’s comments were too elevated. There are some positive technical signs like the 100-day MA turning up, so the battle is not lost for the pound in the longer-term. On Friday, however, it will all depend on the US NFP. A strong reading will send GBP/USD to 1.5300, while a weak one will allow it to test levels above 1.5700 with potential target at 1.5800. There is also support in the 1.5400 area (200-day MA).

USD/JPY remains just below the psychological level of 125.00. The Bank of Japan will meet early on Friday. The central bank will likely maintain its monetary stimulus program and upbeat assessment of national economy. Note that the central bank would not like to see the pair above 125.00. Still, in case of strong NFP USD/JPY will surge to 125.75/126.00. The disappointment, however, may provoke a decline down to 123.50 (top of the daily Cloud).

AUD/USD declined after data showed increase in unemployment level. Support is at 0.7315, but strong NFP will provoke a decline to 0.7260/0.7200. Strong resistance is located in the 0.7400 area.

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Forex trading plan for August 7 - Forex Analytics

 

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Forex Analytics

EUR/CHF: buy target - 1.0800
7 August 2015

By: Dmitriy Chernovolov

-EUR/CHF broke resistance level 1.0690
-Next buy target - 1.0800

EUR/CHF continues to rise after the pair earlier broke through the resistance level 1.0690 (which reversed the price in March and July, as you can see below). The breakout of this resistance level follows the earlier sharp upward reversal from the support zone lying between the pivotal support level 1.0550 and 38.2% Fibonacci Correction of the previous sharp upward impulse wave from the end of June.

EUR/CHF is expected to rise further inside the active minor impulse wave (iii) toward the next buy target at the strong resistance level 1.0800 (which stopped and reversed the strong A-wave at the end of April).

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EUR/CHF: buy target - 1.0800 - Forex Analytics

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

AUD/CHF: buy target - 0.7400
7 August 2015

By: Dmitriy Chernovolov

-AUD/CHF rises inside minor ABC correction 4
-Next buy target - 0.7400

AUD/CHF continues to rise inside the minor ABC correction 4 – the (a) and the (c) waves of this ABC correction started earlier - when the pair reversed up from the strong support zone surrounding the support level 0.6950. This support zone was strengthened by the lower daily Bollinger Band. The latest two reversals from this support zone created the two daily Japanese candlesticks reversal patterns Morning Star and Hammer.

With the clear bullish divergence visible on the daily Stochastic - AUD/CHF is expected to break the nearby resistance level 0.7250 – after which the pair is likely to rise to the next buy target 0.7400.

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AUD/CHF: buy target - 0.7400 - Forex Analytics

 

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Forex Analytics

EUR/USD: weekly wave analysis
11 August 2015

Daily. The shape of the final wave area made it clear that the development of the corrective wave (4) is not over yet. This wave will likely take form of the protracted double Triple W-X-Y. The pair is currently forming the final part of the wave X.

H4. The wave X is a rather complex formation, which consists of double Zigzags. The most important thing is that this week we expect the final part of the upward correction , after which the price will resume downward movement in the impulse [c]. When the entire wave X is over, we will see an increase.

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EUR/USD: weekly wave analysis - Forex Analytics

 

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Forex Analytics

GBP/USD: weekly wave analysis
11 August 2015

Daily. The downward Zigzag Y keeps developing. After the upside correction was over, the pair started moving in new bearish impulse [C].

H4. Correction (2) looks complete. After this wave we saw a small downward impulse 1. In the new week we expect new upward correction 2 to this impulse. Then the decline will resume.

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GBP/USD: weekly wave analysis - Forex Analytics

 

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Forex Analytics

Forex trading plan for August 11

By Elizabeth Belugina



The US dollar is generally strong after Friday’s non-farm payrolls release. However, traders are selling the greenback versus the euro and the pound. It happens as the number of USD longs is very large, and some players take profit on good news from America. In the meantime, the situation in the euro area has temporary stabilized, while pound is supported by the fact that the Bank of England, despite the disappointment at its August meeting, will be the second central bank after the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates. Watch for the comments of the Fed’s members later on Monday and US unit labor costs at 12:30 GMT on Tuesday.

EUR/USD is contained by 1.0980. A break above this level will lead the single currency up to 1.1012 and 1.1050. Support is at 1.0950, 1.0925 and 1.0900 ahead of a strong support in the 1.0800 area. The euro area’s Sentix investor confidence came below expectations. On Tuesday watch German ZEW economic sentiment, the forecast is positive. The best strategy is to open small shorts on the spikes to the upside.

GBP/USD recovered to the previous support at 1.5550, which is now acting as resistance. Above this level, cable will be able to rise to 1.5580 and 1.5615 (the breached support line). Support is at 1.5465 and 1.5425.

USD/JPY keeps trading below the psychological mark of 125.00. We will likely see more consolidation between this level and 124.00. Next support is at 123.50.

AUD/USD has been testing levels above resistance levels since May and the psychologically important level of 0.7400. Negative data from China makes it more difficult for AUD bulls to press higher. Above 0.7425 Aussie could rise to 0.7450 and 0.7490. Support is at 0.7360 and 0.7330. Watch the release of NAB business confidence at 01:30 GMT.

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Forex trading plan for August 11 - Forex Analytics

 

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Forex Analytics

GBP/AUD: buy target - 2.1400
11 August 2015

By: Dmitriy Chernovolov

-GBP/AUD reversed from support zone
-Next buy target - 2.1400

GBP/AUD continues to rise – after the recent sharp upward reversal from the strong support zone lying between the support level 2.0920 (which earlier reversed the pair in July), the lower daily Bollinger Band and the 38.2% Fibonacci Correction of the previous sharp impulse wave (v) from June. The upward reversal from this support zone stopped the previous (c)-wave of the active minor ABC correction 4.

GBP/AUD is likely to rise further in the active intermediate impulse wave (3) toward the next buy target at the resistance level 2.1400 (which reversed the previous minor impulse 3 in July).

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GBP/AUD: buy target - 2.1400 - Forex Analytics