Market news and trade recommendations by FBS

[FBS]

USD/CHF: Ichimoku analysis (Dec. 20)

Daily. Last week currency pair found support in the 0.8850 area. A"double bottom" was formed on the daily chart and the bulls used it to turn the greenback up. Note the pair was oversold and this contributed to the bullish sentiment. Despite the bearish character of the indicator, the bulls tested resistance of Kijun-sen (KS). A short-term recoil down from here towards the Tenkan-sen in the 0.8915 region looks possible.

Chart. Daily USD/CHF

H4. At H4 the pair broke into the Cloud after some consolidation under the lower border of the Ichimoku Cloud. This breakthrough was rapid and by the end of the week the currency pair reached 0.9000. This is actually bad for the bulls. A sharp increase has led to an overbought market. Also, just above the 0.9000 figure there is a strong resistance level, formed by the upper boundary of the cloud. Consequently, in the near future we expect the pair to turn down from these levels.

Chart. H4 USD/CHF

 

[FBS]

USD/JPY: Ichimoku analysis (Dec. 20)

Daily. USD/JPY continues setting new yearly highs. Although the greenback is strongly overbought, the currency pair is trading above 104.00, in the 104.50 area. All the indicator lines on the daily timeframe are directed upwards, which indicates strong activity of the buyers. The bullish rally may pause around the weekly levels at 105.20 and 106.00.

Chart. Daily USD/JPY

H4. The pair was supported by the Ichimoku Cloud top, and after a brief consolidation above 102.70 US dollar resumed recovery. In general, technical picture is completely in favor of the bulls. Tenkan and Kijun formed a new Golden Cross above the Cloud. The Cloud continues to rise, which also has a positive impact on the long-term market sentiment. Only the fact that the pair is overbought can hinder further growth.

Chart. H4 USD/JPY

 

[FBS]

Technicals (20.12)

EUR/USD

EUR/USD keeps drifting down. Euro has slid to support at $1.3525. Euro may slide to consolidation area of $1.3620/3520. Data released in Germany was mixed (see the economic calendar).

55-period MA is starting to slope down.
The prices dropped below the Ichimoku Cloud ($1.3666) – a bearish sign. Tenkan-sen (red line) went almost vertically down.
MACD extended down in the negative territory. RSI, however, is currently signaling oversold (below the 30 level).
Support: $1.3625, $1.3613, $1.3600 and $1.3575 (200-period MA)

Resistance: $1.3666, $1.3705, $1.3740/50, $1.3790

Chart. H4 EUR/USD

Upcoming events:

EUR - All Day - EU Economic Summit

EUR - 10:00 GMT - Italian retail sales

USD - 13:30 GMT - Final GDP

USD - Tentative - Fed Chairman Nomination Vote

 

[FBS]

Technicals (20.12)

GBP/USD

Cable remains in a narrow $1.6335 /1.63875 range for a second day in a row. There are now clear signals on the pair for now. However, we still remain bullish for the pair with a medium-term target of $1.6600 as long as it holds above $1.6320.

· The cable consolidates above the bearish channel;

H4 MACD histogram remains in a positive territory, but stopped its rise;

Cable is supported by the 100- and 55- period MAs;
Ichimoku: Kidjun-sen is about to cross Tenkan-sen to the downside (that could become a bearish signal).
Support: $1.6340, $1.6320, $1.6300, $1.6230 (38.2% Fibo)

Resistance: $1.6435, $1.6465, $1.6500

Chart. H4 GBP/USD

Upcoming events:

GBP - 9:30 GMT - Final Q3 GDP, Current Account, Public Sector Net Borrowing

USD - 13:30 GMT - Final GDP q/q

USD - Tentative - Fed Chairman Nomination Vote

 

[FBS]

USD/JPY

USD/JPY extended the upside on Friday, hitting a fresh 5-year high of 104.60. Our next target for the pair lies at 105.55.

USD/JPY holds above the bullish H4 Ichimoku with Kijun-sen crossing the Tenkan-sen to the upside;
Supported by the 55-day MA (102.85) and the 100-period MA (102.50);
MACD keeps on rising (bullish sign);
Sentiment remains clearly bullish as long as the 103.75 support holds.
Support: 104.00, 103.75, 103.40, 102.50
Resistance: 105.00, 105.55

Chart. H4 USD/JPY

Upcoming events:
USD - 13:30 GMT - Final GDP q/q

USD - Tentative - Fed Chairman Nomination Vote

 

[Red Herring]

Good analysis of PA
I am inn...

 

[FBS]

Dec. 23: Asian session


Asian stocks went cautiously higher on Monday encouraged by record highs on Wall Street due to the upbeat data on American economic growth and the resilience of stocks to the Fed’s decision to start QE tapering. However, growth in shares wasn’t strong as China’s benchmark short-term money rates swung to 9.8% fueling the fears of a credit squeeze.

USD/JPY is little changed in the 104.00 area, below Friday’s peak at 104.63. Trading is quiet as Japanese banks are closed today in observance of the Emperor’s Birthday. Australian and New Zealand dollars are trading a little higher on Monday. AUD/USD extends the upside, strengthening to $0.8950. Last week the pair has formed a “hammer” candle. NZD/USD keeps consolidating in the $0.8190/8220 range. Gold price is consolidating around $1200.0 – slightly above the June 3-year low of $1180.0.

EUR/USD edged up to $1.3695 and GBP/USD – up to $1.6360.

 

[FBS]

Key currency options (Dec. 23)

Market prices tend to move towards the strike price at the time large vanilla options (ordinary put and call options) expire. It happens (all things equal) as each side of the deal seeks to hedge its risk exposure. This action is most noticeable ahead of 10 a.m. New York time when the majority of options expire (14:00 GMT).

Here are the key options expiring today:

EUR/USD: $1.3600, $1.3650, $1.3660, $1.3700, $1.3750;

USD/JPY: 103.00, 104.00, 105.00 (large);

USD/CHF: 0.8900;

AUD/USD: 0.8900 (large) 0.9100 (large);

USD/CAD: 1.0650 1.0675.

 

[FBS]

FX BAZOOKA: technicals (Dec. 23)

EURUSD

EUR/USD managed to rise from support at $1.3625 and test $1.3710.

55-period MA is starting to slope down.

The prices returned inside the Ichimoku Cloud. Tenkan-sen (red line at $1.3667) is providing some support. The Cloud turned bearish, but isn’t widening.

MACD remains in the negative territory, but above the signal line. RSI (14) went from oversold to the neutral state (46).

Above $1.3667 there’s scope for increase to $1.3718/33. Upper Bollinger band is at $1.3760. Below this level we’ll be selling.

Resistance: $1.3690, $1.3705, $1.3740/50, $1.3790

Support: $1.3667, $1.3625, $1.3613, $1.3600 and $1.3575 (200-period MA)

Chart. H4 EUR/USD

Upcoming events:

USD - 13:30 GMT - Core PCE Price Index

USD - 13:30 GMT - Personal Spending

EUR - 14:00 GMT - Belgian NBB Business Climate

USD - 14:55 GMT - Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment

 

[FBS]

FX BAZOOKA: technicals (Dec. 23)

GBPUSD

GBP bulls have given some ground after a quick test of the $1.6485 high last week. Cable has been consolidating in a narrow descending channel since then. However, the pair remains supported at $1.6320 (23.6% Fibo) for now.

H4 MACD histogram is declining and is below the signal line (bearish signal);
Cable slipped below the 100- and 55-period MAs.
Support: $1.6320, $1.6300 (channel support), $1.6230 (38.2% Fibo)

Resistance: $1.6360, $1.6400,$1.6430

Chart. H4 GBP/USD

Upcoming events:

USD - 13:30 GMT - Core PCE Price Index

USD - 13:30 GMT - Personal Spending

USD - 14:55 GMT - Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment