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[Stan NordFX]

CryptoNews

- Hackers attacked large companies in Israel, traditionally demanding a ransom in bitcoins to regain access to confidential information. The new ransomware virus was named Pay2Key. It affects corporate programs through which reports on financial transactions and other data are transmitted. According to IT company CheckPoint, if the conditions set by the criminals are not met, they usually simply upload the databases to the darknet or to specialized resources on the Web, where anyone can view the materials or buy them.

- Mike Novogratz's Galaxy Digital cryptocurrency bank, in collaboration with investment company CI Global Asset Management, will launch a new bitcoin fund in Canada. The investment company will act as its manager, and the cryptobank will act as co-manager. The latter will carry out all Bitcoin transactions on behalf of the fund. The asset value will be based on the Bloomberg CFIX Bitcoin Index. The partners have already announced preparations for the IPO, as part of the initiative. The offer consists of $10 Class A and F shares.

- Bloomberg analyst Mike McGlone is confident that the capitalization of the first cryptocurrency will reach $1 trillion in the second half of next year. However, first the price of bitcoin needs to overcome the main obstacle: the all-time high reached in December 2017 at around $20,089. Almost three years have passed since then, during which time the price managed to drop to $3,126, and then grow fivefold, reaching $18,000 at the moment.
“$20,000 is the main obstacle for bitcoin to capitalize at $1 trillion,” McGlone wrote. - The digital version of gold, but with a more limited supply and a history of adding zeros, appears to be in the early stages of pricing and may simply continue to grow in 2021. Its mass acceptance is growing."

- Actress Maisie Williams, who portrays Arya Stark in Game of Thrones, asked her Twitter followers if she should invest in Bitcoin. At the time of this writing, 650,369 users expressed their opinion, of which 50.7% answered in the affirmative, 49.3% - in the negative.
Comments from representatives of the cryptocurrency community appeared under the post. For example, the founder of the investment company Grayscale, Barry Silbert, recommended Williams to get acquainted with his firm. In the message, he stressed that "Game of Thrones" featured a "greyscale" in keeping with the name of his company, Greyscale.

- Thanks to consolidation in the status of digital gold, the rate of the first cryptocurrency can reach $318,000 by the end of 2021. This forecast was presented by Tom Fitzpatrick, Managing Director of one of the largest banks in the world, Citibank. He believes that the bitcoin market is now reminiscent of the 1970s, when dollar inflation led to increased demand for gold. In 1971, US President Richard Nixon carried out a series of reforms, abandoning the Bretton Woods system and pegging the dollar to gold. As a result, the price of this precious metal showed a steady increase over the next 50 years.
In his new report, Bitcoin: Gold for the 21st Century, Fitzpatrick writes: "Bitcoin moved in the aftermath of the Great Financial Crisis of 2008, when new changes in the monetary regime took place and we dropped to zero interest rates." He notes that currently, financial stimulus measures against the backdrop of the coronavirus pandemic are leading to the formation of conditions similar to the 1970s.

- The founder of the Galaxy Digital cryptobank Mike Novogratz admitted that he once bought his first 500,000 ETH at the rate of $0.99 from Vitalik Buterin. According to the billionaire, the Ethereum project team decided that it would be nice for the community to have a buyer from Wall Street.
As for bitcoin, Novogratz learned about it in 2012 and purchased the first 30,001 BTC at $95 per coin. When asked why such a strange amount, the billionaire replied that at that moment the head of the hedge fund Pantera Capital Dan Morehead bought 30,000 coins, and "then we decided that we would buy 30,001 because we could not afford to have more."
Novogratz also admitted that he planned to sell bitcoin at $1,000 to buy a plane, but he was talked out of it by partner Pete Briger.

- New US Senator Cynthia Lummis plans to bring the discussion of the first cryptocurrency to the national level. The politician said this in an interview with ABC News channel. “21 million bitcoins will be mined and that's it, this is a limited emission. Therefore, I am confident that it will become an important player as a store of value over time,” said Lummis.

- The popular American businessman Robert Kiyosaki agrees with the senator. “Bitcoin's rise has outpaced gold and silver,” he wrote. - What does it mean? This means that you need to buy as much bitcoin and precious metal as you can and don't put it off. The train is already leaving. The dollar is dying. When the dollar falls, the price doesn't matter anymore. What matters is how much gold, silver and bitcoins you have.”
It is curious that in addition to his bestseller "Rich Dad Poor Dad," Kiyosaki wrote two more books in collaboration with US President Donald Trump.

- The price of bitcoin broke through the level of $18,000 with a market capitalization of $338 billion. BTC has grown by more than 50% over the past month as its net purchases on crypto exchanges have far exceeded those of miners. Citing data from analyst firm Glassnode, cryptanalyst Will Wu pointed out that hourly purchases of BTC on exchanges are almost 20 times higher than the amounts attributed to miner sales. Another specialist, Lark Davis, also confirmed that 145,000 bitcoins left the exchanges in the last month, and only 27,000 BTC were mined during this time.


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[Stan NordFX]

Forex Forecast and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for November 23 - 27, 2020​

First, a review of last week’s events:

- EUR/USD. Last week, we talked again about complete uncertainty in the market, when investors just shrug their shoulders, not knowing what to expect in the near future. And then the forecast was appropriate: 50% of the experts sided with the bulls, 40% supported the bears, and the remaining 10% took a neutral position. And it turned out to be the most correct: the pair moved in a very narrow range of 1.1815-1.1890 for the whole week and completed the five-day period in its central part, at the level of 1.1858.
The reason for this is the same uncertainty caused by the unclear balance of power after the US election and, as you might guess, by the situation with the second wave of the COVID-19 pandemic.
In addition to the fact that President Donald Trump has already reached the Supreme Court, where he is going to challenge the election results and where the Republicans have strong enough positions, there is now another conflict in the United States, between Treasury Secretary Stephen Mnuchin and the Federal Reserve System.
Mnuchin has said that emergency lending programs have already achieved their goals and that they should be completed this year. The Fed would like to see all of these programs designed to support the economy during the pandemic continue to work in full. 12 of the 13 credit lines through which the Fed is pumping trillions of cheap dollars into the economy are due to close on December 31, and if that happens, the stock market will be under intense pressure. Which will trigger a sell-off in stocks and a rise in the dollar as a haven currency.
According to the head of the Federal Reserve Jerome Powell, the time to complete emergency lending programs will not come soon. He is supported in this by the International Monetary Fund, which believes that the real state of the economy leaves much to be desired and the cessation of funding will lead to another collapse of world GDP.
It was reported on Thursday, November 19 that Republican Majority Leader in the US Senate, Mitch McConnell, seemed to be ready to resume negotiations on a new stimulus package. However, no one can say yet how these negotiations will end.
The situation with measures to counter the spread of COVID-19 also remains unclear. State authorities are trying to prevent a new round of the epidemic. New York has already decided to close schools, and the stock market went down on Thursday on the announcement of Mayor Bill de Blasio about the possible introduction of a ban on eating in public catering establishments. And although in Europe the situation with the pandemic is also quite difficult, it is still better than in the United States: thanks to the restrictive measures adopted in the EU, the virus is spreading more slowly here. But making any predictions is a thankless job in this case as well;

- GBP/USD. At the end of the week, the pound, albeit slightly, but grew up, having risen at the maximum from 1.3200 to 1.3310. And this despite the fact that negotiations on Brexit conditions between the EU and the UK were suspended on Thursday due to the infection of one of the members of the European delegation with the coronavirus. The pound was supported by the information about the resumption of negotiations between the Democrats and the US Republicans on fiscal stimulus, which we described above. Another support was the published data on retail sales in the UK, which increased by 1.2% in October. As a result, the pair closed the trading session closer to two-week highs, at 1.3290;

- USD/JPY. While the economies of the US and the EU are only trying to fight off another coronavirus attack, Japan is showing impressive success. GDP of this country for the third quarter increased to plus 5.0%. And this despite the fact that a quarter earlier it was minus 8.2%. Such indicators allow the yen to maintain its status as a major haven currency, making it more attractive, compared to the US dollar.
As a result, the forecast, which was given by 60% of analysts, supported by 90% of trend indicators and 70% of oscillators, was quite accurate. Recall that they felt that the pair would be kept within the downstream channel and would once again try to test the support in the 103.00 zone. True, the pair did not reach the target horizon and found a local low at 103.65. But its aspiration to the south is beyond doubt: having started the five-day week at 104.60, it finished it at 103.80;

- cryptocurrencies. The forecast we gave the previous week suggested that the BTC/USD pair should consolidate above the $17,000 level by the end of November. At the same time, it was noted that it is hardly worth waiting for a massive profit-taking in the near future, as it will be restrained by greed in anticipation of the price growth at least to $20,000. Especially since there are no serious levels of resistance along the way.
The reality has surpassed forecasts: having broken through the $17,000 and $18,000 levels, the pair soared to a height of $18,780, showing a weekly gain of 15%. In total, the first three weeks of November saw, bitcoin grow by 35%, and the total crypto market capitalization increase from $401 billion to $515 billion, and at the time of writing the forecast, on November 20, it continues to grow. Such volumes were only seen during the historic 2017 rally.
Among the main reasons for the growth, experts cite the increasing adoption of bitcoin by both private investors and large institutional investors. Thus, a survey of 700 millionaires conducted by DeVere Group showed that 73% of them either already own this cryptocurrency or are going to invest in it.
Another reason is the monetary policy of the US Fed. Amid the coronavirus pandemic and interest rate cuts, the US money supply has risen by 22% this year. And that is not the limit, as another stimulus package of about $2 trillion is expected under the QE program.
Finally, there is a third serious reason for the growth of the basic cryptocurrency. Recently, net purchases of bitcoin on crypto exchanges have been significantly larger than the sales of miners. Citing data from analyst firm Glassnode, cryptanalyst Will Wu pointed out that hourly purchases of BTC on exchanges are almost 20 times higher than the amounts attributed to miner sales. Another specialist, Lark Davis, also confirmed that only 27,000 BTC were mined in the last month, and as many as 145,000 coins left the exchanges. Moreover, most of them migrated to "cold wallets" as an object of accumulation.
It should be noted here that, according to experts, the imbalance between BTC supply and demand will only increase, stimulating the growth of the coin. The reason is that the Chinese government has started a fight against the largest community of miners¬: Beijing has banned ICOs, cryptocurrencies are classified as unwanted speculation, and miners' bank accounts have begun to be blocked. This is despite the fact that more than half of bitcoins are mined in China at the moment.
Returning to the results of the week, we note that Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index froze at 86 by the evening of Friday, November 20, in the zone that the developers of the index designated as "Extreme Greed". This value corresponds to the BTC/USD pair being strongly overbought and portends its correction.


As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the opinions of a number of experts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

- EUR/USD. The US problems were described in the first part of this review. Considering scenarios for next year, Goldman Sachs predicts a 6% drop in the USD weighted rate in 2021, Citibank does not rule out that the dollar index could fall by 20%, and Morgan Stanley expects the EUR/USD pair to grow from the current 1.1800-1.1900 to 1.2500.
Looking to the near future, experts also give preference to the European currency. Thus, 65% of them expect that the pair will break the resistance of 1.1900 in the coming weeks and reach the zone of 1.2000-1.2100. Accordingly, 35% of analysts expect a decline to the level of 1.1700-1.1750. The likelihood of a fall to the November 4 low of 1.1600 is estimated so far at only 10%.
On the bulls side, there is a graphical analysis of 90% of trend indicators and 75% of oscillators on D1. The remaining 25% of the oscillators give signals that the pair is overbought. Closest supports are at 1.1740 and 1.1685 levels.
As for the most important economic events of the coming week, one should pay attention to the data on business activity in Germany and the Eurozone, which will be released on Monday 23 November, to macro statistics from the United States, including GDP for the third quarter and data on orders for durable goods on Wednesday 25 November, and to the results of the meeting of the Federal Reserve and on Thursday, November 26;

- GBP/USD. The October growth in consumer activity in the UK was most likely caused by the fact that the population was buying goods for future use before the coming lockdown. Therefore, it is possible that in November this figure will go into negative territory. Sales through online stores will not save it either. We should not forget the increasing likelihood of parting with the EU without a trade agreement. The leaders of European Union member states have already begun preparations for a hard Brexit, according to The Times newspaper.
Analysts' opinion has so far been divided equally. But when switching from a weekly forecast to a monthly one, the scales tilt in favor of the bears, and 65% of experts do not bode well for the pound, expecting the GBP/USD pair to fall by 300-400 points.
But the indications of technical analysis still look quite optimistic. 75% of oscillators, 100% of trend indicators on H4 and D1, as well as graphical analysis on H4 are colored green. An alternative point of view is represented by 25% of oscillators and graphical analysis on D1. Support levels are 1.3200, 1.3165, 1.3100, 1.3035 and 1.2855, resistance - 1.3310, 1.3400 and the August 1 high of 1.3480.
As for macroeconomic indicators, we advise you to pay attention to the November Markit PMI, which will be published on November 23 and, according to forecasts, may fall by more than 15%, from 51.4 to 42.5;

- USD/JPY. Until there is some clarity regarding the further monetary policy of the United States, the preferences of conservative market representatives will remain on the side of the Japanese currency. This is what at least 45% of analysts think, supported by 80% of indicators on both timeframes. 25% of experts have supported the growth of the dollar and the USD/JPY pair, and the remaining 30%, together with graphical analysis on D1, have taken a neutral position. Supports are located at 103.65, 103.15 and 102.00, resistance levels are 104.50, 105.15 and 105.70.
As for the graphical analysis, it draws a rebound upward from the central line of the descending channel in the 103.40 zone on D1, and the pair's return to its upper border in the 105.40-105.65 area;

- cryptocurrencies. Many investors are wondering if it is too late to buy bitcoins now. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index, together with other indicators, have been in the overbought zone for a long time, the pair has almost approached the cherished $20,000, and no serious correction has yet occurred.
Actress Maisie Williams, who portrays Arya Stark in Game of Thrones, asked her Twitter followers if she should invest in bitcoin. More than 650 thousand users expressed their opinion, of which 50.7% answered in the affirmative, 49.3% - in the negative. The result is almost equal, which indicates a possible reversal of the downward trend.
A number of specialists expect the BTC/USD pair to fall to support in the $15,700 zone. But there are also notorious pessimists who recall the catastrophe of 2018, when the price collapsed from an all-time high of $20,000 to $3.125.
However, now the situation is somewhat different than in 2018. Bitcoin has proven not only its survivability during this time, but also its ability to generate colossal profits. Even Jamie Dimon, CEO of banking giant JPMorgan, admitted it. Now his analysts advise investing in this cryptocurrency, which Daimon had called "fraud and stupidity" back in 2017 Another giant is the PayPal payment system, which has only recently introduced a service for investing in cryptocurrencies, due to high demand, it has already doubled the limit, which has now reached $20,000.
A forecast was presented by Tom Fitzpatrick, Managing Director of one of the largest banks in the world, Citibank. According to him, thanks to consolidation in the status of digital gold, the rate of the first cryptocurrency can reach $318,000 by the end of 2021. Fitzpatrick believes that the bitcoin market is now reminiscent of the 1970s, when dollar inflation led to increased demand for gold. In 1971, US President Richard Nixon carried out a series of reforms, abandoning the Bretton Woods system and pegging the dollar to gold. As a result, the price of this precious metal showed a steady increase over the next 50 years.
In his new report, Bitcoin: Gold for the 21st Century, Fitzpatrick writes: "Bitcoin moved in the aftermath of the Great Financial Crisis of 2008, when new changes in the monetary regime took place and we dropped to zero interest rates." He notes that currently, financial stimulus measures against the backdrop of the coronavirus pandemic are leading to the formation of conditions similar to the 1970s.
It seems that legislators in Washington are also turning to cryptocurrencies. While Beijing is putting pressure on its miners, new US Senator Cynthia Lummis plans to bring discussions on the first cryptocurrency to the national level. “21 million bitcoins will be mined and that's it, this is a limited emission. Therefore, I am confident that it will become an important player as a store of value over time” said Lummis.
Robert Kiyosaki, a popular American entrepreneur and author of the bestselling Rich Dad Poor Dad, also agrees with the Senator. “Bitcoin's rise has outpaced gold and silver,” he wrote. - What does it mean? This means that you need to buy as much bitcoin and precious metal as you can and don't put it off. The train is already leaving. The dollar is dying. When the dollar falls, the price doesn't matter anymore. What matters is how much gold, silver and bitcoins you have.”
As for the forecast for the coming days, the overwhelming majority of experts (80%) have supported the sideways movement of the BTC/USD pair in the $18,000-19,000 range. And only 20% expect it to fall below $18,000. No one has voted for the breakdown of the $19,000 resistance in the coming week. However, if we talk about the forecast before the end of the year, 70% of analysts agree that bitcoin can update historical highs.

NordFX Analytical Group


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

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[Stan NordFX]

CryptoNews

- Musician Sean Lennon, son of world star John Lennon of The Beatles, has sided with the Bitcoin. “If everyone continued to use gold now, then it would have to be carried in bags. In addition, it is much easier to steal such an asset. Cryptocurrencies are almost completely independent. People need freedom, which the authorities, banks and other departments are trying to take away. Bitcoin allows you to use your funds to the maximum,” says Lennon Jr.

- Brad Garlinghouse, CEO of Ripple, has wished bitcoin luck. According to him, the entire industry will benefit from the growth of the main cryptocurrency, but a decrease in the correlation between assets can lead to new problems. Because of this, the head of Ripple has urged investors to have both bitcoin and altcoins in their portfolio.
He has also noted that the rally in the basic cryptocurrency that began in November could indeed lead to new all-time highs. According to him, ill-wishers are now talking about a new pyramid, which could collapse at any moment. But according to Garlinghouse, bitcoin now has huge support from large investors, making a major correction almost impossible.

- American rapper Logic bragged about $6 million in bitcoin investments to his fans. According to the artist, the funds were transferred to cryptocurrency last month. He first bought bitcoins worth $2 million then, after which he decided to make two more of the same transactions. Many social media users have agreed that Logic has already made good money, since a month ago the cost of bitcoin was significantly lower.

- For the first time, the Lithuanian State Tax Inspectorate has sold the confiscated cryptocurrency worth 6.4 million euros. the assets include Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Monero. The funds received from their sale are directed to the state budget. Recall that in the United States, the Federal Marshals Service regularly holds auctions for the sale of cryptocurrency confiscated by law enforcement agencies. Also, soon the confiscated cryptocurrency will be put up for auction in Romania.

- PayPal chief executive Dan Shulman believes bitcoin will ultimately be used more for day-to-day payments rather than a store of value. “The use of cryptocurrency in daily purchases will increase its functionality and stabilize it,” Shulman said, noting that during the coronavirus pandemic, the use of cash has dropped significantly. According to him, up to 70% of consumers no longer want to deal with them.
PayPal opened access to Bitcoin and several altcoins for its customers earlier this month and is now working to integrate trading platforms. This will allow sellers of goods and services to accept digital payments as early as next year. Dan Shulman noted that before launching the service, the company held detailed consultations with world regulators.

- The number of Ethereum addresses on which at least one ETH is stored has reached a historic high of 1.171 million addresses. Business for the leading altcoin took off in the summer, thanks to the growth of the decentralized finance sector (most of these projects were created on the basis of Ethereum). To date, investors have already invested $13 billion in the DeFi sector.
Still, the current growth cannot be compared with the takeoff of the coin, which began at the end of 2017. Note that as of 01/01/2017, there were only about 66 thousand Ethereum wallets, and just a year later, when the price of ETH reached its historical maximum around $1300, there were already 873 thousand of them (an increase of 1223%).

- On November 24, the price of bitcoin surged above $19,000 for the first time since December 2017. At the time of publication, the market capitalization of this coin has reached $357 billion and exceeded the capitalization of such a giant as investment bank JPMorgan (about $349 billion).
Despite its CEO's skepticism about digital currencies, JPMorgan has already started serving cryptocurrency exchanges Coinbase and Gemini, and bank analysts have confirmed that a number of institutional investors are considering bitcoin as an alternative to gold.

- Jaan Tallinn, co-founder of the telecommunications application Skype, has admitted in an interview with Fortune that he keeps a fairly large part of his personal fortune in cryptocurrency.
Bitcoin has also been supported by the chairman of the messenger company Intercom, Eogan McCabe. "I would like to announce that after years of pampering, I jumped firmly on the bitcoin train and now I want everyone else to do the same."

- Unknown people deceived the employees of the hosting provider GoDaddy and gained access to control over the domains of several cryptocurrency platforms. The attacks began on November 13, according to KrebsonSecurity.
The first victim was the Liquid cryptocurrency exchange. The hosting provider handed over control of the account and domain to an attacker. Liquid chief Mike Kayamori said the hacker managed to partially infiltrate the platform system and gain access to the document repository.
The second victim was the NiceHash cloud mining service: on November 18, experts found an unauthorized change of DNS settings in GoDaddy. NiceHash froze withdrawals for 24 hours until they were sure they were back to their original state.
Supposedly, cryptocurrency companies Bibox, Celsius and Wirex were also victims of the attack.

- Analyst Mati Greenspan believes that the current situation in the cryptocurrency market is qualitatively different from the situation that was observed three years ago. In 2017, the rise in the price of BTC to $20 thousand was the result of the entry of speculators into the crypto sphere. Now the market is controlled by corporations and large investors interested in its stability. The entry of large players leads to the fact that volatility will weaken, and this area will become more attractive, the analyst quotes the CNBC channel. Greenspan expects a further update of bitcoin highs as early as this year.

- Wall Street veteran Max Kaiser believes the supply shock will drive bitcoin to rise to $1 million. “The demand for bitcoin is growing almost exponentially,” he says, “while its supply is mathematically fixed at 900 coins per day. And in 2024, the supply will be halved to 450 BTC per day.
This is why I think that institutions that buy bitcoins will do it directly from miners, and people simply won't have the opportunity to buy coins as the price will skyrocket to $1 million per BTC. Meanwhile, Gen Z, who bought a lot of bitcoins when they were under $100, will become the new global power elite. The world order is about to change.”


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[Stan NordFX]

Forex Forecast and Cryptocurrency Forecast for November 30 - December 04, 2020​

First, a review of last week’s events:

- EUR/USD. Making a forecast for the past week, most experts (65%) preferred the European currency. Graphical analysis, 90% of trend indicators and 75% of oscillators on D1 also sided with the bulls. And this forecast turned out to be almost correct. “Almost”, because it was expected that, having broken through the resistance of 1.1900, the EUR/USD pair will reach the zone 1.2000-1.2100. However, it managed to rise only to the height of 1.1960 at the very end of the working week. Perhaps this is due to the weekend in the United States - Thanksgiving on Thursday November 26th and Black Friday on the 27th.
The pair is pushed to growth by the improvement of the epidemiological situation in the European region. For example, France has already passed the peak of the second wave of the pandemic, and on November 28, a phased weakening of the existing restrictions begins. But there are also numerous global factors that make this pair's movement difficult to predict. The number of applications for unemployment benefits in the US last week was as much as 778 thousand - the worst figure in five weeks. This indicates a worsening economic situation. That being said, Republicans and Democrats still have no way to agree on the amount of additional stimulus payments under the QE program. And incumbent President Donald Trump does not want to cooperate with the opposite camp at all.
As for the timing of the appearance of the vaccine against COVID-19 and how vaccination will affect the recovery of the economies of the Old and New Worlds, there is no clarity, only guesses. The assessments of experts are diametrically different about the decision of the US President-elect Joe Biden to appoint the former head of the Fed Janet Yellen to the post of Treasury Secretary, Markets hoped that some guidelines would be suggested by the minutes of the meeting of the US Federal Reserve Committee on Open Markets. But there was not much clarity in it either, only an indecisive discussion of the asset purchase program. We quote: “Most of the participants believed that the Committee should update the forecast of actions over time and apply results-oriented guidance of a qualitative nature”. Well, and then everything is in the same style.
So far, the only indisputable thing is that the dollar index dropped from the March highs by more than 10% as a result of the Fed's monetary policy, reaching a two-year low, and the EUR/USD pair returned to the values of mid-August 2020. These facts are beyond doubt;

- GBP/USD. The result, which, due to general uncertainty, including negotiations on Brexit, was shown by this pair, can be called zero. Three weeks of November marked the Pivot Point at 1.3300. But if this line performed the function of resistance for the first two weeks, then it turned into support. The pair spent the entire five-day period in a lateral trend in a fairly narrow range of 1.3300-1.3400, and finished the trading session at its lower border;

- USD/JPY. The yen has made its unconditional contribution to the fall in the DXY dollar index. Its strengthening and the entry of the USD/JPY pair into the downward channel started at the end of March this year, in parallel with the spread of the coronavirus epidemic around the world. And in search of a safe haven currency, investors once again turned to the Japanese currency.
The pair not only kept within this channel last week, but also narrowed its trading range to 100 points in its upper half. As for the final indicators, they turned out to be even less - having started the five-day week at 103.80, it ended it at 104.05, showing an increase of only 25 points;

- cryptocurrencies. This time we will skip the introduction, like crime news, and immediately move on to the most important thing. Bitcoin being overbought is something we've written about on numerous occasions, something that has long been warned about by indicators including the RSI and Crypto Fear & Greed Index. Everything indicated that the market urgently needs a correction. And so it happened: the BTC/USD pair fell down, and now traders and investors are concerned about only two very important issues. 1) If this is a correction, at what level will it end? And 2) Is this a correction, and will the disaster that occurred with bitcoin in December 2017 happen again? Recall that then, getting close to $20,000, the pair turned sharply and found itself in the $3.125 region a year later, shrinking more than 6 times.
The current rally of the main cryptocurrency started in the first decade of September from the $10,000 area and was stopped on November 25 in the area of $19,500. This was followed by a collapse, and the local weekly low was fixed the next day at $16.280. After a slight rebound, BTC was quoted in the $17,000 zone on the evening of Friday 27 November.
At its peak on November 25, the total capitalization of the crypto market was $582 billion, but on Friday 27 November fell to $500 billion, losing 14%. This movement is fully correlated with the BTC/USD quotes. Much more interesting is that the Crypto Fear & Greed Index is still at 86 as it was seven days ago, and continues to indicate that the pair is strongly overbought. So, it is entirely possible that bitcoin has not yet completed its journey south.
As for altcoins, a number of them have recently shown more positive dynamics than the reference cryptocurrency. So, if the BTC/USD pair lost about 11% over the past seven days, the ripple (XRP/USD), for example, on the contrary, grew heavier by almost 70%, while ethereum (ETH/USD) ended this period with a zero result. Note that the leading altcoin still has good growth prospects. Business for the leading altcoin took off in the summer, thanks to the growth of the decentralized finance sector (most of these projects were created on the basis of Ethereum). To date, investors have already invested $13 billion in the DeFi-sector, and the number of wallets on which at least 1 ETH is stored has reached a historic high of 1.171 million.


As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the opinions of a number of experts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

- EUR/USD. We spoke about the fog that has covered financial markets in recent weeks, in the first part of this review. And even the appearance of a vaccine against COVID-19, for all its obvious usefulness, is unclear how it will affect the exchange rate of a particular currency. Indeed, the degree of damage to the economies of different countries by the coronavirus is different, and the speed of their recovery will also differ. Undoubtedly, the policies that the new US administration under the leadership of Joe Biden will carryout will play a huge role, including domestic policy and the end of trade wars with Europe and China. Considering scenarios for next year, Goldman Sachs predicts a 6% drop in the USD weighted rate in 2021, Citibank does not rule out that the dollar index could fall by 20%, and Morgan Stanley expects the EUR/USD pair to grow from the current levels to 1.2500.
Most experts (60%) expect the pair to grow in the coming week as well. 100% trend indicators and 75% of oscillators on both H4 and D1 side with them. The nearest goal is still the same: to overcome the September 01 high and consolidate in the zone of 1.2000-1.2100.
The opposite point of view is supported by the remaining 35% of analysts, graphical analysis and a quarter of oscillators that give signals that the euro is overbought on both timeframes. Support levels are 1.1880, 1.1800, 1.1740 and 1.1685.
Among the macro-events of the week, we can note the publication of data on business activity (ISM) on December 01 and 03, as well as data on the US labor market on December 02 and 04. In addition, we will find out the statistics on the consumer market of the Eurozone on Tuesday 01 December and Thursday 03 December. Also, the speeches of the head of the ECB Christine Lagarde on November 30 and December 1, as well as the head of the Fed Jerome Powell on December 1, may also influence the formation of short-term trends;

- GBP/USD. The general tendency towards the weakening of the dollar affects the forecasts for this pair as well. 75% of analysts predict its growth first to the upper border of the channel 1.3300-1.3400. Perhaps it will be able to break through the resistance of 1.3400 and rise another 80-100 points higher, but only 30% of experts vote for this. Graphical analysis on H4 and 90% of oscillators and trend indicators on D1 also side with the bulls.
Indicators on H4 give a mixed picture. But graphical analysis on D1 showed that, after several days of movement in the 1.3300-1.3400 corridor, the pair may decline to 1.3200, after which it can return to the upper border of this corridor and even reach the September 1 high at 1.3480.
Support levels 1.3175, 1.3100 and 1.3000;

- USD/JPY. Albeit minimal, but still the growth of this pair last week made analysts think about its transition from a downward movement to a sideways movement. So, 60% of them assumed that it would move east in the range 103.70-105.30 for some time. Such a scenario is supported by graphical analysis on D1 and only 10% of oscillators giving signals that the pair is oversold. In case of a breakout of the upper border of the channel, the pair will meet resistance at 105.70, then at 106.15.
The remaining 40% of experts, along with graphical analysis on H4, as well as 100% of trend indicators and 90% of oscillators on both timeframes, side with the bears, indicating the direction to the south for the pair. The first support is 103.70. It is followed by the 09 November low at 103.15, which corresponds to the center line of the descending medium-term channel. The ultimate target of the bears is the 2020 low, which the pair reached on March 09, at 101.17;

- cryptocurrencies. If you look at the charts, you can see that the current situation is very similar to what it was in December 2017. At the same time, many experts say that the market is no longer the same, and that the collapse of three years ago is unlikely to repeat. Indeed, there is a growing acceptance of bitcoin by both private depositors and large institutional investors. Indeed, against the background of the coronavirus pandemic, the mass of fiat is growing, which increases the popularity of bitcoin as a protection against inflation. But what if the current fall is caused by the fact that large speculators simply started taking profits ahead of the end of the year? What if the stop orders set near the historic high have already started to work?
According to CoinTelegraph, shortly before the collapse, the All Exchanges Inflow metric showed an increase in BTC placement on exchanges, which clearly indicates the intentions of whales to start selling their crypto assets. But after the whales, looking at the current situation, many retail investors will follow. Moreover, Christmas holidays are not far off, and this is a period of increased need for fiat.
So there are plenty of resons for the further fall of the BTC/USD pair. But no compelling reasons for new growth are foreseen at least until early 2021. Although, of course, the pair's jerks to the north are quite possible. Some of the major speculators may try to play bullish, or, for example, the Chinese government will deal another blow to its miners, creating a supply shortage in the crypto market. All of this could push the quotes back up.
Looking ahead, it is appropriate to quote the opinion of the analyst Mati Greenspan. He believes that, unlike in 2017, the market is now controlled not by speculators but by corporations and large investors interested in its stability. The entry of large players leads to the fact that volatility will weaken, and this area will become more attractive. In connection with the above, Greenspan, like many other experts (there are now 65% of them), expects a further update of the bitcoin highs already this year.
In the meantime, the market is interested in the level at which the current correction will end. In general, is it a correction or a global trend reversal downward? In addition to the $17,000 zone, in which there was a consolidation at the end of the last working week, the next strong support may be the November 26 low in the $16,000-16,300 area, which fits within the Fibonacci correction. However, if the pair overcomes this support confidently, then it will return to the $14,700-15,700 zone, where it stayed in the first decade of November and from which the last stage of the upward rally started.
And at the end of the review, one more, already global, forecast from Max Kaiser. This Wall Street veteran believes the supply shock will drive bitcoin to rise to $1 million. “The demand for bitcoin is growing almost exponentially,” he says, “while its supply is mathematically fixed at 900 coins per day. And in 2024, the supply will be halved to 450 BTC per day. This is why I think that institutions that buy bitcoins will do it directly from miners, and people simply won't have the opportunity to buy coins as the price will skyrocket to $1 million per BTC. Meanwhile, Gen Z, who bought a lot of bitcoins when they were under $100, will become the new global power elite. The world order is about to change.”


NordFX Analytical Group


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

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[Stan NordFX]

CryptoNews

- Experts agree that Bitcoin will be able to withstand the pressure of banks and reach a new level. According to one of scenarios, the correction of the main cryptocurrency from $19,480 to $16,280, which was fixed last week, is associated with the decision of the US President Donald Trump Administration to tighten control over the circulation of digital assets. Officials chose to change the rules for registering cryptocurrency wallets as one of the ways to manage transactions.
Many crypto companies have already begun developing new versions of wallets, which will receive permits from the US Securities and Exchange Commission before launching. Trump is probably trying to resist China in this way, which is preparing to release its own cryptocurrency. If the digital yuan becomes a cross-border payment instrument, it can be used instead of the dollar. This will make sanctions against China ineffective, and Washington will lose the ability to put pressure on Beijing.
“Bitcoin has an indirect relationship to everything that happens, but even the first statements by representatives of the American government about the desire to start controlling the industry brought it down by several thousand dollars in a matter of hours. But I do not think this will lead to serious problems, as the market has already managed to recover from the correction,” said Mark Yusko, the head of Morgan Creek investment company. Moreover, according to experts of Stack Funds, this correction is not only “healthy”, but also will allow bitcoin to prepare for a new high of $86,000.

- According to Mike Novogratz, head of the Galaxy Digital crypto trading bank, everyone should invest 2-3% of their funds in bitcoin. “After that, it is enough to wait a little time, and you will be surprised, but cryptocurrencies will cost significantly more. If you wait five years, the assets will multiply several times,” he wrote. According to the head of Galaxy Digital, bitcoin volatility can be expected in the near future, but it is unlikely to sink below $12,000, and even a correction to such levels is unlikely.

- An unknown user received 7 Ethereum coins (about $4,200 at the time of writing) for a solved puzzle that began with a billboard in the Warsaw subway. An ad with an ethereum address and hashtags #0xPOLAND and #0xPOLANDHEIST appeared at one of the metro stations and urged passengers to solve the puzzle hiding the secret phrase for withdrawing funds to ETH. The tips were posted on a Twitter account called 0xPoland. The final clue appeared in the print and electronic editions of Gazeta Wyborcza.
The organizers explained that they wanted to invite people to join their team "to create a decentralized financial infrastructure."

- Authorities in Delaware County (Pennsylvania, USA) paid hackers $500,000 in bitcoins after the county's information systems were attacked by the DoppelPaymer ransomware virus. The extortionists gained access to police records, payment documents, procurement information and other databases, however, it is argued that the attack did not affect the voting systems. After getting the ransom, the hackers advised authorities to change passwords and gave recommendations for configuring the Windows domain.

- The number of addresses containing more than one bitcoin is growing steadily and has exceeded 820 thousand. These wallets hold 95% of the total digital gold market volume. This is evidenced by data from analytics companies Glassnode and BitinfoCharts. Smaller addresses store about $16 billion of digital gold. There are 32.6 million addresses with non-zero balance in the world.

- The value of bitcoin could surpass the $500 thousand mark, the founder of the Gemini crypto exchange Tyler Winklevoss, one of the twin brothers who was called the first cryptocurrency billionaires, told CNBC. He called the current price of the main digital coin “an opportunity to buy” as it could rise in price by 25 times in the future. “Bitcoin will surpass gold. If this happens, the capitalization of this cryptocurrency will exceed $9 trillion,” predicted Tyler Winklevoss.
It became known in summer 2020 that the Winklevoss brothers are planning to make a film about their history of investing in cryptocurrency. Ben Mezrich's biographical book "Bitcoin Billionaires" will be filmed for this purpose.

- Global Macro Investor CEO Raul Pal has placed an order to sell all of his gold to invest in BTC and ETH at an 80/20 ratio. He announced this on Twitter and clarified that in addition to gold, there are some bonds and US dollars in his portfolio.
The head of Global Macro Investor expects that even conservative institutional investors, who usually prefer precious metals, will start investing in bitcoin next year. Therefore, Pal made the bold assumption that the rate of the first cryptocurrency cad reach $250,000 in a year.

- A message from South America: the Venezuelan army is mining cryptocurrencies. A Digital Asset Mining Centre for the Armed Forces of the country has opened in Caracas. An area on the territory of the Fort Tiuna headquarters was allocated for the Centre. The military called the creation of a mining center" an unblockable source of income" and an example of cooperation with the civilian sector.
The amount of computing power has not been specified, but it is known that
the Venezuelan National Guard has previously detained a truck with 315 mining blocks from Bitmain. The equipment was confiscated and has apparently become the basis for a new military crypto facility.

- Joe Biden's administration should focus on integrating bitcoin into the US financial system instead of creating a digital dollar like China. This is the opinion of Niall Ferguson, a former professor at Harvard and Oxford and now a senior researcher at Stanford.
In a new article, the world-renowned economic historian looked at the US dollar, gold and bitcoin as the monetary revolution continued, accelerated by the COVID-19 pandemic. Drawing parallels with the plague of the 14th century, the historian noted that the pandemic let digital gold cover a decade-long path in only ten months. And this happened not only because of the closed banks, but also due to the tightening of financial supervision.

- Payment system Visa has entered into cooperation with crypto startup BlockFi to launch a credit card with cashback in bitcoin in early 2021, writes Bloomberg. Users of the "Bitcoin Rewards Credit Card" product will receive a cashback of 1.5% of the amount spent in BTC and will also receive $250 in cryptocurrency once they spend more than $3,000 in the first three months. The rewards earned will be automatically transferred to the client's account in BlockFi, where they will be available for various transactions or withdrawal to a third-party wallet.


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[Stan NordFX]

NordFX Sums Up November Results: TOP 3 Most Successful Traders​

NordFX brokerage company has summed up the performance of its clients' trade transactions in November.

The maximum profit for that month was received by a client from Vietnam, account No.1416xxx. The client's profit of 40.153 USD was obtained mainly from transactions with the EUR/AUD currency pair and gold (XAU/USD).

Second is the trader from India (account No.1485xxx), whose profit was just under 40 thousand dollars (38.930 USD), and was obtained through trading on many pairs, including GBP/USD, USD/CHF and GBP/NZD.

The third place in the November TOP 3 belongs to the Vietnamese trader (account No. 1511xxx), with a result of 15.925 USD, who traded in the NZD/USD, AUD/USD and XAU/USD pairs.

The passive investment services in November:

- in CopyTrading, the signal provider under the nickname 78XGaming showed the maximum growth with a fantastic result of + 1539% with a drawdown of 79%;

- in the PAMM service, the results are much more modest. Here the manager with the nickname ProCapital became the leader, showing an increase of 15.51%. However, the drawdown here was significantly lower, only 9.8%, which can be attractive for investors who prefer stable income with a moderate degree of risk.


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[Stan NordFX]

Forex and Cryptocurrency Forecast for December 07 - 11, 2020​

First, a review of last week’s events:

- EUR/USD. The dollar continues to fall, the euro continues to rise. The pair has traveled from 1.1600 to 1.2175 since early November. The main reasons for the weakening of the US currency lie in the growing global risk appetite. Against the background of positive news about vaccines against coronavirus, the market has believed in the imminent recovery of the global economy. Moreover, not the US economy, but the economies of other countries, including developing. The situation in the United States itself is not encouraging: the main indicators, including business activity and employment of the population, turned red here last week. Suffice it to say that the number of new jobs created outside the agricultural sector (NFP) collapsed from 610K in October to 245K in November, due to new quarantine measures.
Investments in the US economy are becoming unpopular, the S&P500 and Dow Jones stock indices have switched to a sideways trend, treasury (government debt) yields are not growing, but inflationary expectations, on the contrary, have soared to annual highs. Interest rates are minimal, which contributes to the departure of investors to other assets, overseas.
The interesting thing is that Europe has enough problems as well. Based on the dynamics of purchasing managers' indices, it is the EU, not the United States, that is now the main brake on the world economy. Yes, Joe Biden has welcomed the compromise proposal for another $908 billion aid package for the US economy, adding that he would not be limited to it. But the ECB, according to the Bloomberg forecast, will expand the emergency asset purchase program by €500 billion at a meeting on December 10, extending its term from mid to late 2021. In addition, the European regulator will also increase the scale of LTRO, a program for long-term anti-crisis refinancing of banks. Added to this are concerns with the UK over the Brexit agreement, plus disagreements with Poland and Hungary over the COVID-19 Rescue Fund and interest rates in the EU are even lower than in the US.
In general, there are enough problems on both sides of the Atlantic. But, nevertheless, as expected by most experts (60%), the EUR/USD pair continued its growth last week, ending the five-day period at 1.2120. And the point here is not so much in the strength of the euro, but in the weakness of the dollar, the DXY index of which fell to 90.5 for the first time in two years;

- GBP/USD. The British currency has also grown against the dollar, having risen by 670 points since early November. And this despite the fact that London and Brussels cannot come to an agreement on the Brexit terms, and the tough position of France in general makes one doubt that such agreements are possible.
The forecast, which was supported by 75% of analysts last week, was absolutely correct: the pair rose to the upper limit of the 1.3300-1.3400 channel. Then it was broken down and the pair moved further north to 1.3540 and finished the trading session at 1.3435.
The pound, of course, was supported by the weakening dollar. In addition, the bulls were also helped by the announcement of the signing of a contract between the British government and Pfizer for the purchase of 40 million doses of COVID-19 vaccine, 10 million of which the UK will receive next week. The market was also pleased with the removal of a number of quarantine measures in the country, and the decision on partial admission of spectators to the national football league games;

- USD/JPY. The forecast for this pair also turned out to be correct. Supported by graphical analysis on D1, 60% of experts had said that the pair would stop its decline and move east in the 103.70-105.30 range. In reality, this lateral channel turned out to be somewhat narrower, 103.66-104.75. And the reason for the emerging equilibrium between the dollar and the yen was the same rise in risk sentiment and a drop in interest in such protective assets as the Japanese currency. The final chord of the week sounded in the central zone of the specified channel at 104.15;

- cryptocurrencies. Bitcoin has been pounding towards the psychologically important $20,000 level over the past two weeks. And although it updated the historical high, reaching the mark of $19,930 on December 01, all attempts to conquer the height of twenty thousand ended in profit taking and a rollback.
According to a number of experts, in addition to triggering stop orders, there are also political reasons that force investors to go to fiat. So, according to one version, the correction of the main cryptocurrency on November 25-26 from $19,480 to $16,280, which had many chances to develop into a catastrophic collapse, was associatedwith the decision of the administration of American President Donald Trump to tighten control over the circulation of digital assets. Officials chose to change the rules for registering cryptocurrency wallets as one of the ways to manage transactions.
Many crypto companies have already begun developing new versions of wallets, which will receive permits from the US Securities and Exchange Commission before launching. Trump is probably trying to resist China in this way, which is preparing to release its own cryptocurrency. If the digital yuan becomes a cross-border payment instrument, it can be used instead of the dollar. This will make sanctions against China ineffective, and Washington will lose the ability to put pressure on Beijing.
“Bitcoin has an indirect relationship to everything that happens", Mark Usko, head of Morgan Creek investment company, comments, "but even the first statements by representatives of the American government about the desire to start controlling the industry brought it down by several thousand dollars in a matter of hours".
After this drop, bitcoin returned to the $19,000 zone very quickly. Along with the BTC/USD quotes, the total market capitalization of the crypto market has also recovered. It stood at $582 billion at its peak on November 25, then dipped to $500bn on November 27. And now, seven days later, on December 04, it is at $575 billion.
According to analytical companies Glassnode and BitInfoCharts, the number of addresses containing more than one bitcoin is also steadily growing, exceeding 820 thousand at the moment. These wallets hold 95% of the total BTC market volume. In total, there are 32.6 million addresses with a non-zero balance in the world.
Despite the seemingly positive dynamics, the fall ofbitcoin by 16.4% on November 25-26shows the precariousness of its current state. Both investors and traders understand this, and they are ready to start massively closing long positions at any time. Bitcoin's Crypto Fear & Greed Index rose from 86 to 92 in seven days, showing that the overbought coin is only getting worse, which could lead to another strong correction. In the meantime, the pair has chosen the $19,000 horizon as the Pivot Point, along which it has been moving throughout the past week.
As for altcoins, they, rise and fall for the most part, following the reference cryptocurrency. So, despite the increase in the total capitalization of the crypto market, the bitcoin dominance indicator has remained practically unchanged and is 62.44% (62.33% a week ago). Similar indicators of altcoins from the TOP-10 have hardly changed either. Although, we can highlight the ripple (XRP/USD), whose share in the total market capitalization has grown 1.8 times over the month, from 2.69% to 4.89%. This is because Flare Networks will airdrop spark coins on December 12th based on a snapshot of all XRP Ledger addresses. Thanks to this, each ripple holder will receive free spark in a 1:1 ratio, which is reflected in the popularity of this coin and the growth of its quotes. After a long stagnation in the region of $ 0.24, it rose to $ 0.77 at the high over the past three weeks, and it is quoted in the zone of $ 0.60 at the time of writing.


As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the opinions of a number of experts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

- EUR/USD. The higher this pair rises, the more willingness of large speculators to start taking profit on it. Moreover, the end of the financial year is just around the corner, it's time to take stock. In order for the dollar to continue its fall, the risk sentiment needs constant recharging, but the market may lose it. US stock indexes have been holding sideways since November 09. But this stability is very relative and threatens with a sudden collapse, which will entail the withdrawal of investors from the stock market in favor of the dollar.
For example, a reassessment of the optimistic expectations related to vaccination against the COVID-19 may lead them to this. And there are reasons for this. For example, the Pfizer has already reported problems with supplies, due to which the volume of vaccine production in 2020 will be halved, from 100 million to 50 million doses. A sharp rise in the yield of 10-year US government bonds could also strike the stock market. And you never know what else can happen this year rich in surprises!
There will be a meeting of the European Council, the ECB's decision on the interest rate and a subsequent press conference by the bank's management on Thursday, December 10. But the meeting of the US Federal Reserve on December 16 seems to be more interesting.
At the moment, graphical analysis on H4, 90% of trend indicators and 75% of oscillators on H4 and D1 are colored green. However, the remaining 25% of the oscillators are already giving active signals that the pair is overbought. The pair is expected to decline to the 1.1850-1.1950 zone by the majority (65%) of experts as well, supported by graphical analysis on D1. Immediate support is at 1.2000. Resistance levels are 1.2175, 1.2200, 1.2260 and 1.2320;

- GBP/USD. Significant for this pair is the level of 1.3500, which it reached at the end of last week. Graphical analysis, 100% of trend indicators and 85% of oscillators on H4 and D1 predict further movement to the north. Resistance levels are 1.3625 and 1.3725. However, only 40% of analysts agree with this scenario. The remaining 60% believe that this pair will also turn down, following the EUR/USD reversal. Moreover, if the negotiations on Brexit do not come out of the impasse, its fall may turn into a collapse. However, even if the agreement is concluded, it is likely to be formal and very limited, and is unlikely to please the fans of the British currency. Support levels are 1.3400, 1.3285, 1.3175. The ultimate goal of the bears in December is to return to the 1.3000 horizon;

- USD/JPY. The dollar and the yen have reached a temporary truce due to rising risk sentiment, moving to a sideways trend. However, the pair never went beyond the medium-term channel, along which it smoothly slides south since the end of March. And the vast majority of experts (70%), supported by graphical analysis on D1, believe that this downtrend will continue. More precisely, it will be a lateral movement with a dominance of bearish sentiment. The main resistance will be the level of 104.50, fighting off from which, the pair will fall first by 100 points lower, and then reach the November 09 low in the zone of 103.15.
An alternative point of view is held by 30% of analysts who expect that the pair will first reach the upper border of the two-week sideways channel 104.75, and then try to consolidate above the horizon of 105.00. The next target of the bulls is 105.65;

- cryptocurrencies. The fall of bitcoin on November 25-26 by 16.4% occurred, according to a number of experts, due to the tough decision of the Donald Trump administration regarding digital assets. However, if the team of the current US President is an obstacle to the development of the crypto market, then everything can change with the arrival of Joe Biden in the White House. Former Harvard and Oxford professor and now Stanford senior fellow Niall Ferguson believes that the administration of the new President should focus on integrating bitcoin into the US financial system instead of creating a digital dollar following China's example.
In a new article, the world-renowned economic historian looked at the US dollar, gold and bitcoin as the monetary revolution continued, accelerated by the COVID-19 pandemic. Drawing parallels with the plague of the 14th century, the historian noted that the pandemic let digital gold cover a decade-long path in only ten months. And this happened not only because of the closed banks, but also due to the tightening of financial supervision.
According to Mike Novogratz, head of the Galaxy Digital crypto trading bank, everyone should invest 2-3% of their funds in bitcoin. “After that, it is enough to wait a little time, and you will be surprised, but cryptocurrencies will cost significantly more. If you wait five years, the assets will multiply several times,” he wrote. According to the head of Galaxy Digital, bitcoin volatility can be expected in the near future, but it is unlikely to sink below $12,000, and even a correction to such levels is unlikely. The above-mentioned correction on November 25-26, according to experts from Stack Funds, is not only "healthy", but will also allow Bitcoin to prepare for a new high of $86,000.
The Director General of Global Macro Investor Raoul Pal expects that even conservative institutional investors, who usually prefer precious metals, will start investing in bitcoin next year. Therefore, Pal made a bold assumption that the rate of the first cryptocurrency could reach $250,000 in a year, and placed an order for the sale of all the gold he had in order to invest in BTC and ETH in the ratio 80 to 20.
Even more inspiring forecast was given by Gemini crypto exchange founder Tyler Winklevoss, one of the twin brothers who are called the first cryptocurrency billionaires. He said on CNBC that the value of bitcoin could exceed the $500k mark. He called the current price of the main digital coin “an opportunity to buy” as it could rise in price by 25 times in the future. “Bitcoin will surpass gold. If this happens, the capitalization of this cryptocurrency will exceed $9 trillion,” predicted Tyler Winklevoss.
In the meantime, the probability that the BTC/USD pair will be able to gain a foothold above $20,000 by the end of this month is estimated at 30%. The likelihood of its fall to the $15,000-15,700 zone is estimated at the same 30%.


NordFX Analytical Group


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market

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[Stan NordFX]

CryptoNews

- Interest in Bitcoin has reached the summer 2019 level. According to Google Trends, the numbers began to increase almost immediately after the reference coin rose in value to $12,000. Comparing the current growth with the growth in December 2017, followed by a collapse, analysts write: “In December 2017, the main cryptocurrency became a real trend, staying in the top for search queries. Now, the dynamics is about the same, but the indicators are still lower than at the end of 2017. Most likely, the peak of interest will be at the moment when the historical high is broken."

- Bloomberg experts believe that the value of bitcoin in 2021 may increase to $50,000. This is evidenced by a partial repetition of a number of factors that were observed in 2017 during the famous rally. However, Bitcoin now has significantly more support, which minimizes the likelihood of a pullback.
“There is no reason for a change of Bitcoin's movement direction right now,” Bloomberg writes. - The dollar is gradually losing its position, pulling along other fiat currencies. All this is seen by investors who are forced to switch to alternative asset types.” Open interest in the CME bitcoin futures market exceeded $1 billion for the first time in history, which also speaks of growing support from investors.

- One of the factories of the Taiwanese electronics manufacturer Foxconn has become a victim of the DoppelPaymer ransomware virus. The hackers demanded 1804 BTC (about $33.8 million at the time of writing) from the company. The attackers stole approximately 100 GB of files, encrypted the company's North American segment (1200-1400 servers), deleted 20-30 TB of backups, and made some of the documents publicly available.
In early November, DoppelPaymer attacked another Taiwanese laptop manufacturer, Compal Electronics. Then the attackers demanded 1100 BTC for decryption.

- Bitcoin will rise to $29,569 next year, according to a report from the fintech company Cindicator. This figure was obtained from a survey of over 156,000 users. The respondents with the most accurate forecasts, the so-called "superforcasters", on average expect even greater growth, to $32,056. As for the lower bar, according to the average forecast, it is at $15,000. “Superforcasters” are less optimistic and expect a decline to $12,000.
Cindicator's “hybrid intelligence”, which uses machine learning algorithms to process data from a team of analysts, predicts similar values, only in a narrower range. According to its calculations, the BTC rate next year will not exceed $25,222 and will not fall below $16,000. At the same time, the total capitalization of the cryptocurrency market in 2021 with a probability of 80% will surpass the 2018 record of $828 billion.
According to the same forecast by Cindicator, the price of the first cryptocurrency will reach $21,000 this year.

- Edward Snowden, former special agent of the CIA and the US National Security Agency (NSA), who fled to Russia, recalled that he had been right about the prospects for bitcoin. During the March crash to $3,820, Snowden announced that it was time to buy bitcoin as there was little reason to panic. Now the ex-spy has become an even more staunch supporter of digital gold. “I found out today that the dollar has depreciated against bitcoin by 99.93% since 2013,” he wrote.

- US Global Advisors investment company CEO Frank Holmes suggested that gold, bitcoin and ethereum could rise next year. At the same time, Holmes believes that the price of bitcoin and gold is influenced by completely different factors. Thus, the increase in the value of the first cryptocurrency was influenced by the May halving of the reward to miners to 6.25 BTC. “If global gold mining companies announce that they will cut gold supplies by 50%, I can assure you that gold will cost $10,000 per troy ounce. It's all about supply and demand,” Holmes explained.
As for Ethereum, its rate is driven by the latest advances in decentralized finance (DeFi). DappRadar researchers have recently reported that 96% of the total DeFi transactions was on ethereum in Q3 2020, which also led the daily number of active wallets.

- American billionaire Paul Tudor Jones announced last May that he was investing in bitcoin to hedge against inflation and now calls bitcoin an undervalued asset. “$500 billion is the wrong market capitalization for bitcoin in a world where there is a $90 trillion stock market, and God knows how many trillions there are in fiat currency. I assume it is being misjudged in terms of its inherent capabilities, ”he told Yahoo! Finance. “Cryptocurrencies will have a crazy rocket flight with ups and downs along the way,” he says. - Bitcoin, in particular, will be significantly higher in 20 years than it is now. From here the road for it lies to the north.”
Jones is one of the most recognizable traders in the world today. He rose to fame in the 1980s when he predicted a Black Monday market crash in 1987. He is also associated with the rapid development of the global hedge fund industry. Tudor Investment Corporation manages $10 billion in assets, and the investor's personal fortune is estimated at $5 billion.

- Cuban residents have begun to turn to cryptocurrencies more often after the tightening of US sanctions. On November 23, the Western Union payment system closed 407 offices in Cuba due to restrictions imposed on money transfers to the country, writes Deutsche Welle. Cubans began using bitcoin and some altcoins to circumvent sanctions. At the same time, the volume of many transfers does not exceed $20, and there are about 10 thousand active holders of digital assets in the country.
Recall that Cuba came in second in terms of the number of searches related to bitcoin. In terms of interest in the first cryptocurrency, the country was second only to Nigeria.

- Financial conglomerate Wells Fargo, one of the "big four" US banks, has published a new investment report, in which a separate page under the heading "Bitcoin - 2020's best performing and most volatile asset" is devoted to the cryptocurrency market. The authors do not directly encourage clients to invest in digital assets, but generally maintain an optimistic tone regarding their prospects. “Over the past 12 years, they have grown from literally nothing to a $560 billion market cap,” writes Wells Fargo. "Hobbies don't usually last 12 years."
The bank notes that bitcoin is up 170% over the year, but warns about its high volatility. “Investing in cryptocurrencies today is akin to living in the early days of the 1850s gold rush, which involved more speculation than investing.”


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[Stan NordFX]

Forex Technical Analysis: Basics, Theory, Tools​

The Forex market is a place where almost everyone has every chance to make money. But do not confuse luck with a professional approach. Trader is a profession that needs to be learned. Otherwise, intuition will fail sooner or later, and a series of trades will turn into a continuous loss. That is why, as a start to your career, it is better not to waste time, but to start by studying technical market analysis. It will let you trade with awareness.

Technical analysis is a global trend in the study of price behavior, its dynamics and external signs, which is based on statistical historical data. It is important to note this trend includes a huge arsenal of tools and specific movements that allow to analyze the quotes from different angles. Its main feature is its historical recurrence, cyclicality. Thanks to it, you will not only learn how to navigate in the current situation, but also to predict the future.

Whom Technical Analysis of Graphs Suits

There are two main areas that beginners should study at the level of theory - fundamental and technical analysis.

The first is difficult, as it requires an understanding of macroeconomics, world politics and their relationship with each other. Therefore, it is logical that people with the appropriate education are inclined towards the fundamental analysis.

If you adopt technical analysis (TA), you will not need to study complex economic theory and immerse yourself in the monetary policy of each individual state or bloc. You will not need to think about how, for example, the presidential elections of any country might affect the demand for oil on the world market, and that, in turn, the quotes of a particular currency.

Unlike fundamental analysis, technical analysis assumes that the market has already taken into account all these factors in its current quotes. The price dynamics, its movement features demonstrate the psychological portrait of the bidders. Knowing what motivates the participants, the key players, it is possible to build unique trading systems.

Technical analysis is suitable for beginners not because of its simplicity, but because of its versatility. The history of its development gave birth to thousands of instruments and views on price movement. Each trader can choose something of their own, without delving into complex mathematical calculations. Regardless of your background, profession, type of character, Forex technical analysis is an effective solution for making money in the foreign exchange markets for both beginners and experienced professionals.

Trader's Work Environment

One of the main challenges in learning to work with charts can be the choice of the working environment and the object of study. For example, one of the key questions is the choice of the currency pair to be traded, the time frame and, of course, the trading terminal.

The trader adjusts all these parameters personally, depending on their goals. For example, the brokerage company NordFX provides its clients with the opportunity to trade on MetaTrader 4, the world's most popular terminal. It can be both a stationary MT4 terminal and its mobile versions, which allow you to analyze the market, open and close up to 100 trading orders at any time from anywhere in the world where there is Internet access. MetaTrader 4 has a friendly interface, a huge number of built-in useful features and is a powerful weapon in the hands of the trader. You can learn more about how MT4 works in the corresponding section on the official NordFX website.

Time Frame

A time frame is a time interval during which one candle or bar is formed. Using different intervals allows you to cut off market noises and catch global trends, moving from a shorter time frame to a larger one.

In MT4 there are 9 options for presenting quotes charts - М1, М5, М15, М30 (that is, 1 candlestick or bar corresponds to 1, 5, 15 or 30 minutes), H1, H4, D1, W1 and MN (respectively, 1 candlestick is equal to 1 hour, 4 hours, 1 day, 1 week and 1 month). Thus, by choosing the one-minute time frame, you will see on the screen how the price has changed every minute for several hours, and by choosing, for example, the MN time frame, you will see the price change over several years.

Also, you will see the so-called tick charts in MT4 which are formed not by time, but by trades. One deal has passed - one tick has formed. And there can be several such ticks even within one minute.

Each trader selects the necessary interval for themselves, depending on the desired trading activity, their trading strategy and, ultimately, temperament and discipline. The higher the timeframe, the more averaged the picture you get. Some traders , called scalpers, can open and close trades in a very short time, so they use M1, M5 time frames and tick charts. Others are guided by long-term trends, relying on charts not lower than H4 or D1.

Currency Pairs

There are a lot of recommendations as to which specific currency pairs to use when trading. Moreover, in most cases, the emphasis is on the main, so-called "major", currency pairs, consisting of the main and most liquid currencies - USD, EUR, JPY, CHF, GBP. Pairs using AUD, CAD and NZD (Australian, Canadian and New Zealand dollars) as well as CNH (Chinese yuan) are also popular.

Basically, Forex technical analysis is applicable not only to these currency pairs, but also to rarer ones, such as ZAR (South African rand), SGD (Singapore dollar) or NOK (Norwegian krone). It can also be used to forecast many other trading instruments available to clients of the NordFX brokerage company. These are cryptocurrencies (bitcoin, ethereum and many others), gold, silver, oil, shares of various large companies and leading stock indices. That is, technical analysis is a universal method that can be used to make money not only in Forex , but also in other markets - stock, commodity, cryptocurrency. However, the technical analysis tools used each time require individual settings depending on the currency pairs and time frames used in trading.

So, for example, exotic currencies and cryptocurrencies are more difficult for technical analysis, since interest in them is weaker, there are fewer transactions, and trading volumes are lower. As a result, any news or manipulation, even by a not very large speculator, can lead to sharp unpredictable jumps in quotations.

Technical Analysis Tools

Do not confuse trading tools and technical analysis tools. The first is what you trade (currencies, cryptocurrencies, stocks, etc.), while the second is what you use to analyze the market and make decisions about a particular transaction. The diversity of this area has no boundaries. Every year, many new and unique tools are invented that allow you to make more and more accurate trading decisions. At the same time, the vast majority of them can be divided into the following groups.

Graphic Tools

Using graphic tools, the trader sets out patterns on the price chart and simplifies the forecasting process. They can be based on both a complex mathematical model and ordinary geometric shapes, the main task of which is to simplify the work with chart markings. These include: lines, channels, shapes, icons. As a simple example, the graph shows a down-to-date price channel that has changed to an uptrend.

All graphical instruments, based on the Fibonacci numerical sequence (levels, arcs, extension, time zones) are commonly called the mathematical model in this analysis. This also includes developments using the methods of William Gunn (grid, line, fan, pitchfork), pitchforks of Andrews and Schiff, Eliott waves and the methods of a number of other well-known scientists and practicing traders.

With their help, you can determine the direction of the trend, possible pivot points, the depth of the rollback (correction), and form the current trading range.

Indicators

This is a separate area, the essence of which is a mathematical way of averaging and converting the price into different graphs (rarely tables), allowing to cut off the superfluous and highlight the most important characteristics, and therefore more convenient for analysis and forecasting. This can be work according to given formulas with trading volumes, volatility, speed and acceleration of price changes and, of course, trends.

There are a lot of variations of indicators, and there are both basic, time-tested and custom ones. Basic or standard indicators are usually called those that are included in the trading terminal toolkit by default. There are more than 50 of them in MetaTrader 4. A number of them are based on the aforementioned mathematical models of graphic analysis. Custom indicators can be either completely original developments or a modification of standard ones. There are thousands of them at the moment, and many new ones appear every day, which can be purchased or downloaded for free online and integrated into your personal MT4 terminal.

They are divided by their function and purpose:
- Trending (Moving Average, ADX, Bollindger Bands);
- Oscillators (Stochastic, RSI, RVI, MACD);
- Volumes.

The first huge category serves the trader in order to highlight the trend, its strength and direction, predict changes, cut off noise. The second group shows the overbought and oversold market, giving entry and exit points (for opening and closing trades). Volumes demonstrate the involvement of players and their money supply in the market. This is a kind of way to see what capital is behind the selected movement of an asset. All trading add-ons underlying the indicators are the transformation of mathematical formulas.

Patterns

Patterns are graphic patterns that are often repeated in the market, the appearance of which, according to long-term observations, can lead to one or another price movement. These are patterns of formation of bars or candles , their combinations, which are cyclical and in most cases lead to a pre-known scenario. The concepts of "Japanese candle" and "candle models" on Forex are discussed in a separate article in more detail. Here we note that in practice all models are divided into:
- Reversal Pattern;
- Uncertainty Pattern;
- Trend Continuation Pattern.

Each of them can lead to a specific scenario. However, one should not take any of them as an axiom. The efficiency changes in the conditions of the selected time frame, currency pair and type of trading asset. This is why each pattern is tested before being used in real trading conditions. Popular candlestick patterns: hammer, hanging man, harami, doji, falling star, absorption. Graphic shapes: wedge, rectangle, double top, head and shoulders, cup, flag, pennant.

The Main Purpose of the Study and Use

The mistake of beginners is that they try to absorb as much knowledge, and then use all of it in practice. In fact, it is impossible to do that, because it can lead to a “brain explosion”. Mutually exclusive conditions constantly arise in the market. For example, the trend line indicates a dominant up market, and the candlestick formation indicates an imminent reversal. We see a downward trend on the M30 timeframe, while on H4, it, on the contrary, is pointing upwards, and the oscillator is in a neutral position at the same time. What is the priority?

The main task of technical analysis is to give the conditions on the basis of which you will create a trading strategy.

A trading strategy is a set of rules and conditions that can include the readings of one or several indicators, analysis of patterns, and the construction of your own chart patterns on different time frames. A fundamental analysis of macroeconomic statistics and political events can be added there. And the more of these rules you put into your strategy, the worse it will be... the harder it will be for you to analyze the situation and make trading decisions.

There is this proverb — “All in good fun.” The complication of a trading strategy makes it impossible to apply it, even if you create a trading robot instead of your own brain and use all the capabilities of your computer.

A trading robot or a trading advisor is a computer program that will automatically implement the trading strategy embedded in it according to a given algorithm. The advantages are obvious: the program trades 24 hours a day, seven days a week, does not give in to panic or the excitement inherent in humans, and operates within a strictly specified algorithm. There are tens of thousands of trading advisors for MT4 . And now it is easier to buy a ready-made or even download one for free on the Internet than to invent your own with the help of a programmer. Most of the ideas that come to mind for a novice trader have long been implemented. However, keep in mind that an expensive advisor is not necessarily a good one, and a free one is not necessarily a bad one. Quite often the opposite is true.

How to Learn to Make money

The best way to learn is to use good literature. The main condition is to read the books of real traders. We can recommend the following fundamental textbooks among the huge number of repetitive editions:
- Jack Schwager “Technical Analysis. Full course”;
- Thomas DeMark "Technical Analysis - The New Science";
- Steve Nison “Japanese Candles: A Graphic Analysis of Financial Markets.”

Also note that the broker NordFX has created a special section "Education" on its website, where you can gather a lot of information necessary for both beginners and experienced traders. All this useful knowledge is presented not only in the form of dozens of books and articles, but also in the video format.

To consolidate your knowledge, you should definitely go from a theoretical plane to a practical one. The demo account NordFX will help you with this, on which you can, absolutely risk-free, gain real experience trading virtual money.


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[Stan NordFX]

Forex and Cryptocurrency Forecast for December 14 - 18, 2020​

First, a review of last week’s events:

- EUR/USD. As expected, the European Central Bank left its interest rate unchanged, at the same level of 0%. The euro had a chance to somewhat weaken its position against the dollar. However, it missed it due to the ECB's decision to ramp up the volume of the Pandemic Emergency Purchase Programme (PEPP) by another €500bn and a subsequent comment from the head of that bank Christine Lagarde. Actually, there was nothing unexpected in this decision, we predicted such an outcome a week ago. In addition, it definitely fell into the middle of the market participants' forecast of €400-600 billion. But it was precisely this predictability that prevented the EUR/USD pair from turning south.
The hawkish sentiment of Christine Lagarde's statements also supported the European currency. It appears she tried to lower the euro rate by announcing that the ECB is closely monitoring the euro. However, the decision of the regulator not to interfere in the affairs of the foreign exchange markets influenced investors much more than a simple statement about “monitoring the exchange rate”. And the unexpectedly hawkish remark of Ms. Lagarde that if the situation with the Eurozone economy improves enough, it may not be necessary to use all these €500 billion, put the final end to the efforts of the bears to move the pair south.
As a result, having dropped to the level of 1.2060, the pair rushed to the north again, rising to the height of 1.2165, and completed the five-day period in the middle of this range, in the 1.2113 zone, practically in the same place where it started on Monday;

- GBP/USD. The weakening pound has outpaced the weak dollar. The British currency slid down as the threat of a "hard" Brexit becomes more evident. The latest statements by British Prime Minister Boris Johnson and the head of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen suggest that there will be no real agreement on the terms of Britain's separation from the EU. Johnson advised his citizens to prepare for a "tough" exit, von der Leyen said about the same.
It is worth emphasizing the word "real" here, since some agreement may still be reached, and we will not see the "iron curtain" blocking the tunnel under the Channel. Neither side needs it, much less at the height of the COVID-19 pandemic. Most likely, the document that will be called the "Agreement", will have many blank spots left, which the parties will start filling in as early as 2021. But such an inferior contract will definitely not benefit the pound. The proof of this is what happened to the GBP/USD pair last week.
From the high of Friday 04 December to the low of Friday 11 December, the pound lost more than 400 points! And this despite the fact that the pair did not follow the EUR/USD in the wake, as it was until recently, but began to live a completely independent life. Having reached the local bottom at 1.3135 on Friday December 11 afternoon, it managed to win back about 90 points by the evening, putting the final chord at the level of 1.3225. However, this bounce may well turn out to be just a small correction in the pair's tendency to the south;

- USD/JPY. Due to the rise in risk sentiment, investors have lost interest in such protective assets as the dollar and the yen. As a result, these currencies reached a temporary truce and moved to a sideways trend. However, the pair never went beyond the medium-term channel, along which it has been smoothly sliding south since the end of March. And, giving a forecast for last week, the vast majority of experts (70%), supported by graphical analysis on D1, suggested that the lateral movement with bearish sentiment dominance would be continued.
In general, everything happened like that. The pair continued to move eastward, gradually reducing the amplitude of oscillations to the range of 103.85-104.55 and forming a medium-term “pennant” figure with the main support around 103.65. As for the end of the trading session, the finish was set at 104.00 this time;

- cryptocurrencies. Financial conglomerate Wells Fargo, one of the "big four" US banks, has published a new investment report, in which a separate page under the heading "Bitcoin - 2020's best performing and most volatile asset" is devoted to the cryptocurrency market. The authors do not directly encourage clients to invest in digital assets, but generally maintain an optimistic tone regarding their prospects. “Over the past 12 years, they have grown from literally nothing to a $560 billion market cap,” writes Wells Fargo. "Hobbies don't usually last 12 years."
The bank notes that bitcoin is up 170% over the year but warns about its high volatility. “Investing in cryptocurrencies today is akin to living in the early days of the 1850s gold rush, which involved more speculation than investing”, the bank's analysts think. And yet they add that cryptocurrencies attract a lot of attention, but not necessarily a lot of investment. (Here the title of William Shakespeare's play immediately comes to mind: "Much Ado About Nothing").
It is difficult to disagree with this: the total cryptocurrency market capitalization now is far from even its own high at the beginning of January 2018, $830 billion. And this is in a world where, according to billionaire Paul Tudor Jones, "there is a $90 trillion stock market, and God knows how many trillions are in fiat currency."
The crypto market went down another $50 billion last week: starting from $575 billion, it dropped to $525 billion. Optimists call the clear bearish trend a seasonal correction and associate it with the end of the year and the desire of investors to fix profits after such an impressive leap up. Recall that the BTC/USD pair was never able to overcome the $20,000 mark. And analysts estimated that it will be able to gain a foothold above this iconic level by the end of December, as 30% probability. The likelihood of its fall to the $15,000-15,700 zone is estimated at the same 30%.
In the meantime, the bears were able to lower quotations to $17,600, and they did it twice: on December 09 and 11. And also twice, at the time of these failures, buyers came to the rescue of bitcoin. However, they did not manage to radically reverse the trend, and as of Friday evening, December 11, bitcoin is trading in the zone of a strong support/resistance level of $18,000.
It should be noted that the Crypto Fear & Greed Index declined very slightly in seven days, from 92 to 89, still signaling the pair BTC/USD is strongly overbought, which could portend an even deeper correction.


As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the opinions of a number of experts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

- EUR/USD. The dollar is weakening. It has conceded more than 550 points to the European currency in the last month and a half alone. Finally, the pair moved to a sideways movement in the range of 1.2060-1.2165 last week. And although most oscillators (75%) and trend indicators (95%) are still green on D1, the market is waiting for a downward correction.
If you look at the statistics of a number of leading UK brokers, about 65% of their traders hold short positions. 55% of analysts agree with them as well as graphical analysis on H4 and D1, predicting a decline of the pair to the zone 1.1965-1.2010. Both a sharp drop in demand for risky assets and a "hard" Brexit can push it south.
However, given the cautious optimism of the ECB regarding the recovery of the European economy, the improvement of the epidemiological situation in the EU countries and the general weakness of the dollar, many experts believe that the pair will again move north after the correction, to the highs of the 1st quarter of 2018 in the zone of 1.2400-1.2565. Apart from analysts, the possibility of such a scenario is also confirmed by the readings of graphical analysis. And the resistance here is likely to be the round levels 1.2200 and 1.2300.
As for the events of the coming week, it is worth paying attention to the release of data on business activity in Germany and the Eurozone as well as on the US consumer market on Wednesday 16 December. But the most interesting events await us on Thursday 17 December, when, in addition to the US Fed's interest rate decision, the Summary of Economic Forecasts from the Open Markets Committee of the Fed will be published and a press conference of the leadership of this organization will take place.

- GBP/USD. We will have a lot of macro-statistics regarding the UK in the coming week. Data on the labor market of this country will be released on Tuesday, December 15, consumer prices and business activity in the services sector (Markit) will be published the next day, and a meeting of the Bank of England will be held on Thursday, December 17, where decisions will be taken both on the interest rate and on the planned volume of asset purchases. However, all these events pale in front of the threat of a "hard" Brexit. It is precisely what happens at the negotiating table between the UK and the EU that will decide the fate of the pound.
A message should be issued on the state of the negotiation process, either its termination or continuation, on Sunday, December 13. The softest (and most realistic) option would be to extend the current conditions of the transition period for another six months or a year in order to gradually move to rules similar to the basic rules of the World Trade Organization. In this case, although the downward trend of the pair would have continued, it would have been possible to avoid a catastrophic collapse of the British currency. The nearest support level in this case is 1.3100, then 1.3000 and 1.2850.
The second option is the “hardest” Brexit, without any agreements and prolongations, which will lead the pair to fall to the values of mid-May 2020 in the area of 1.2075 or even to the March low at 1.1420.
There is, of course, a third, most improbable, option in which the EU suddenly gives up its positions and completely yields to the British demands. In this case, we will see a rise of the pound first to the height of 1.3500, and then perhaps to the highs of 2018 in the area of 1.4350. Although, we repeat, this outcome is rather from the field of fiction;

- USD/JPY. The yen expects that the market's appetite for risk investments will finally recoil, and it will again turn its attention to the haven currencies. But that's what the dollar awaits too. The chance for the Japanese currency may be a "hard" Brexit, as a result of which investors will start fleeing from the euro and the pound. But what "safe haven" they will give preference to, the dollar or the yen, is another question.
85% of oscillators and 100% of trend indicators are still painted red, waiting for a further fall of the pair within the downward medium-term channel, the beginning of which was at the end of March. Supports are 103.65 and 103.15.
But the average forecast of experts is very different from the indicators. 90% of them, supported by the graphical analysis on D1, prefer the dollar and expect that the pair will first rise to the upper boundary of this channel in the area of 104.60, and then, breaking through it, the resistance of 105.00 will be tested. Although, it is entirely possible that before the onset of the new year, 2021, neither bulls nor bears will make sharp movements, and the pair will continue its sideways movement, consolidating in the 104.00 zone;

- cryptocurrencies. So, a correction or a repeat of the collapse of the late 2017-2018? The question is still open.
Bloomberg experts believe that there is no reason for a change in the direction of bitcoin's movement now, and its cost may increase to $50,000 in 2021. “The dollar is gradually losing its position, ducking other fiat currencies,” writes this authoritative agency, “All this is noticed by investors who are forced to switch to alternative assets.” Bitcoin has significantly more support now, which minimizes the likelihood of a pullback. Open interest in the CME bitcoin futures market has exceeded $1 billion for the first time in history, which also speaks of growing support from investors.
A similar point of view is followed by the American billionaire Paul Tudor Jones, head of Tudor Investment Corporation, who said that “cryptocurrencies are facing a crazy flight on a rocket with ascents and descents along the way.” “In 20 years, bitcoin will be significantly higher than the point where it is now. From here, the road for it lies north,” Yahoo! Finance quoted him.
But Galaxy Digital CEO Mike Novogratz is less optimistic. In his opinion, bitcoin will certainly not return to zero, but may fall to the $14,000 mark. Therefore, although the losses of investors will not reach 80-90%, they may well be about 30-40%.
The report of the fintech company Cindicator is of great interest. This is due to the fact that the figures presented in it are not the opinion of individual specialists, but the average results of the survey of more than 156,000 participants of the crypto market, according to which bitcoin next year will rise to $29,569. The respondents with the most accurate forecasts, the so-called "superforcasters", on average expect even greater growth, to $32,056. As for the lower bar, according to the average forecast, it is at $15,000. “Superforcasters” are less optimistic and expect a decline to $12,000.
Cindicator's “hybrid intelligence”, which uses machine learning algorithms to process data from a team of analysts, predicts similar values, only in a narrower range. According to its calculations, the BTC rate next year will not exceed $25,222 and will not fall below $16,000. At the same time, the total capitalization of the cryptocurrency market in 2021 with a probability of 80% will surpass the 2018 record of $828 billion.
In addition to institutional investors, additional serious support for the crypto market in 2021 should be provided by countries with troubled economies and those under sanctions. As of now, the SWIFT International Banking System, together with the Financial Crimes Agency (FinCEN) and the Financial Anti-Money Laundering Development Group (FATF), control each international transaction in dollars. Because of this, the countries that have come under the sanctions are deprived of the opportunity for international trade and are literally forced to turn to cryptocurrencies. So, for example, Venezuela, which at first paid in gold, has now switched to settlements for imports with Turkey and Iran in bitcoins. At least this is evidenced by anonymous sources from the Central Bank of this country.


NordFX Analytical Group


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market

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