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[Zforex]

US INDICES:

S&P 500 Futures Extend Winning Streak as Disney Surges and Lyft Slumps
S&P 500 futures showed a modest increase on Thursday, extending the index's longest winning streak since November 2021.
Disney saw a 3% rise in its stock price after reporting profits that exceeded expectations. Conversely, Lyft experienced a nearly 2% drop in its stock value as bookings fell short of projections. The rideshare platform anticipates ongoing challenges in this regard for the current quarter.
These market movements come after a relatively subdued yet significant day on Wall Street. While the S&P 500 only registered a 0.1% gain, it marked its longest winning streak since 2021, spanning eight consecutive days. Meanwhile, the Nasdaq Composite, dominated by tech stocks, inched up by 0.08%, extending its winning streak to nine days, representing its lengthiest stretch of positive sessions in two years.
Investor focus remains fixated on the upcoming Thursday morning's jobless claims data, along with a keen interest in the insights from a series of Federal Reserve officials, including Chair Jerome Powell, who are expected to make statements throughout the day. Following these developments, the Nasdaq has entered the buying territory after surpassing the resistance at 15000, with the next target set at the last high of 16000.




Crypto

Bitcoin Rally Fueled by Growing Optimism Around Spot ETFs and Changing Market Dynamics
The recent Bitcoin rally, approaching the $37,000 mark, has been fueled by growing optimism surrounding spot ETFs, illuminating a transformation in market dynamics. The Exchange Inflow – Spent Output Value Band metric from CryptoQuant illustrates a decrease in inflows from major whale addresses, as individual retail investors become more active, potentially influencing the surge in Bitcoin's value.
Notably, spot volumes are at historic lows, while derivatives hit record highs relative to spot trading, resulting in a spot-to-derivatives volume ratio of 0.06, indicating derivatives dominate market volumes.
Glassnode confirms a growing BTC supply tightness, with Long-Term Holder (LTH) supply near all-time highs and Short-Term Holder (STH) supply effectively at all-time lows, showing reluctance among holders to sell.
The Sell-Side Risk Ratio suggests potential profit-taking by Short-Term Holders post the $35k rally. Long-term holders show a slight ratio increase, resembling periods of tight BTC supply. These dynamics hint at underlying market shifts amid Bitcoin's recent surge.
With Bitcoin breaking through the $35,000 resistance level, the path to the next target at the $46,700 area seems close. If this movement persists throughout the week, it could signify a clear long-term bullish trend entering buying territory.

 

[Zforex]

US INDICES:

S&P 500's Eight-Day Winning Streak Ends as Rising Yields Trigger Investor Concerns
The S&P 500 ended an eight-day winning streak on Thursday due to a significant rise in yields that unsettled investors. Both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq managed modest gains of around 0.1%. Stocks dipped after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell hinted at the potential for further measures to combat inflation, despite a recent slowdown in its pace that provided some relief to policymakers.
Disney's stock surged by 6.9% following better-than-expected profit reports and an expansion of its cost-cutting plans. Conversely, Arm's shares declined by 5.2% after its first quarterly report as a public company.
Small-cap indexes, such as the Russell 2000 and S&P Small Cap 600, incurred more substantial losses, each nearing 1.5%, underscoring persistent investor apprehensions about broader macroeconomic conditions. This trend aligns with the common perception that small-cap stocks are more vulnerable to concerns related to economic slowdowns.
The Nasdaq did not validate its breakout, suggesting a waning sense of over-optimism and the potential for a false breakout. This indicates a cautious stance in the market and prompts a closer evaluation of the prevailing sentiment.


Crypto

Bitcoin Holds Steady Near $36,000, Riding Strong Bullish Momentum
Bitcoin held steady on Friday, maintaining its recent rally, with the price hovering around $36,000 after a brief dip from a peak near $38,000 reached on Thursday. This peak marked Bitcoin's highest level since May 2022. Bitcoin has surged more than 30% in less than a month, breaking free from a prolonged period of low volatility and trading volumes.
Rachel Lin, CEO of the SyFutures trading platform, attributed this strong bullish momentum to the limited circulating supply of Bitcoin, with 90% of Bitcoins unchanged for over three months. The derivatives market also exhibited a bullish bias, with call options concentrated at price targets of $40,000, $45,000, and $50,000.
Moreover, optimism regarding approving the first spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) has bolstered Bitcoin's performance. Asset manager BlackRock's filing for an Ether ETF further fueled the crypto market, causing Ether to surge by 10% in the past 24 hours to above $2,100, reaching its highest levels in 18 months.
Bitcoin is currently experiencing a bullish breakout, which is propelling its price toward the 46700 area - its next target. If it manages to sustain this upward trend by the end of the week, it will indicate a long-term bullish trend and signal a good time to buy.

 

[Zforex]

US INDICES:

U.S. Stock Futures Decline as Moody's Downgrades Credit Outlook

U.S. stock futures experienced a decline on Monday following Moody's Investors Service's decision to downgrade the U.S. credit outlook from stable to negative. This interruption comes after two weeks of strong performance that had offset much of the losses incurred over the past three months.

Moody's decision, driven by large fiscal deficits and political deadlock in Washington, maintains the AAA credit rating but highlights fiscal concerns. This development echoes Fitch's earlier downgrade of the U.S. long-term foreign currency issuer default rating to AA+ over similar issues.

Investors now turn their focus to October's federal budget and the New York Fed's consumer expectations survey, with Fed Governor Lisa Cook set to speak Monday morning, all preceding Tuesday's crucial consumer price index data release.

The Nasdaq continues to exhibit strong momentum, with the potential for the next high at 16000. However, the upcoming CPI data on Tuesday warrants careful observation.

Crypto


Spot Bitcoin ETF Approval Imminent, Fueling Crypto Market Surge

Pro-Bitcoin ETF expert Nate Geraci has suggested the possibility of approval for a spot Bitcoin ETF this week, aligning with Bloomberg's ETF analyst and sparking widespread interest. This development comes after a series of delays in spot Bitcoin ETF applications since June 2023, including Grayscale's application, which was initially rejected and is now undergoing re-review by the SEC.

BlackRock recently challenged the SEC's differing treatment of spot-crypto and crypto-futures ETF applications, advocating for consistent standards, especially in light of their spot-Ether ETF proposal. Following these developments, Todayq News reported a high likelihood of the SEC approving all 12 pending Bitcoin ETF applications soon. This optimism has buoyed the cryptocurrency market, with Bitcoin's price notably crossing the $37,000 mark for the first time since May 2022, following a 25% surge in the last three weeks.

Bitcoin is currently undergoing a bullish breakout, propelling its price toward the 46700 area - the next target. Sustaining this upward trend by the end of the week would signal a long-term bullish trend and suggest an opportune time to consider buying.

 

[Zforex]

US INDICES:

Stock Futures Await Inflation Report, Nasdaq Momentum Pauses Pending Data
Stock futures were muted Tuesday ahead of a closely watched inflation report. S&P 500 futures were up by 0.1%, and Nasdaq-100 futures climbed 0.2%. U.S. inflation likely eased to an annual rate of 3.3% in October, down from 3.7% in September. However, core inflation, which excludes energy and food costs, is expected to remain unchanged, indicating slow progress towards the Federal Reserve’s 2% inflation target.
Long-term investors believe the Fed is playing a holding game, anticipating that the cooling economy will eventually allow for easing policies, making today's high bond yields attractive. Bank of America's latest monthly fund survey reveals global asset managers holding their largest overweight position in bonds since March 2009, with about 61% expecting yields to be lower in 12 months than they are currently.
Later in the day, Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson and Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee are scheduled to speak, and Home Depot Inc. is set to report earnings.
Nasdaq's momentum is on hold pending today's data. If the data comes in lower than expected, the next target is the July high at 16000.

Crypto

Bitcoin Eyes CPI Report for Direction Following Economic Uncertainty
Bitcoin, currently trading at around $37,000, is closely watching the upcoming Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, a crucial factor in its future direction. The CPI, which is expected to show a slowing in inflation, remains a key influencer on the value of Bitcoin and the broader crypto market. October CPI numbers are expected to show a decline in inflation, which could signal a changing economic landscape. This could impact interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve and affect investor confidence in Bitcoin.
However, if inflation exceeds expectations, Bitcoin could lose its recent gains. The market is at a crossroads, with elevated funding rates indicating potential volatility. Additionally, the looming US government shutdown could further affect market dynamics.
The CPI report's outcome could either reinforce Bitcoin's position as a digital safe haven or cause a reassessment of this cryptocurrency amid economic uncertainty.
Bitcoin is currently in a holding pattern, pending the release of important data. If inflation turns out to be lower than expected, it may push the price towards the target area of 46700. If Bitcoin manages to sustain its upward trend by the end of the week, it will indicate a long-term bullish trend and signal a good time to buy.

 

[Zforex]

US INDICES:

S&P 500 and Nasdaq Take a Breath as Investors Assess Economic Indicators and Fed Speeches

On Thursday, S&P 500 futures experienced a modest decline, signaling a momentary pause for investors following a strong November performance. Nasdaq 100 futures saw a 0.23% decrease, while futures tied to the S&P 500 index fell by 0.2%. The Producer Price Index for October, reflecting wholesale prices, showed a notable 0.5% drop, marking the most significant monthly decrease since April 2020.

This decline followed Wednesday's report showing that the Consumer Price Index for October remained unchanged, a positive indicator for investors hoping for a slowdown in inflation that could lead the Federal Reserve to halt interest rate hikes. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq had recorded their largest gains since April in Tuesday's session. Today, investors' attention shifts to a range of economic data including jobless claims, industrial production, and housing market statistics. Additionally, they will closely monitor speeches from Federal Reserve officials such as Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester and New York Fed President John Williams, who are scheduled to speak at various events.

It's worth noting that Nasdaq rebounded after reaching the 16000 mark. However, sustained positive data today will be crucial for further performance and a potential breakout in the market.

Crypto

Bitcoin Hits 19-Month High with SEC ETF Anticipation

Bitcoin reached a new 19-month pinnacle early Thursday, propelled by mounting anticipation surrounding the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission's (SEC) impending decision on numerous spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs). The SEC faces a deadline tomorrow to approve or reject 12 such applications, including Grayscale's $18 billion Bitcoin trust, which could be converted into an ETF. Additionally, BlackRock, the world's largest asset manager with about $10 trillion in assets, is awaiting approval for its spot BTC ETF. The approval of the first spot Bitcoin ETF is expected to be a catalyst for Wall Street's entry into the digital asset space. Amid this backdrop, Bitcoin's price briefly surged above $38,000 in early trading today before paring some of these gains. Investors should remain cautious of potential sell-the-news reactions, a frequent occurrence in the fast-paced and volatile cryptocurrency market.

As Bitcoin hit $38,000 before retracing, the prevailing bullish trend seems solid and could potentially extend in both the short and long term.

 

[Zforex]

US INDICES:

US Stock Futures Hold Steady Amid Thanksgiving Week

US stock futures showed little movement on Monday as Wall Street entered a shortened Thanksgiving holiday week. S&P 500 futures edged higher, while Nasdaq 100 futures posted a modest gain. Microsoft shares rose more than 1% after CEO Satya Nadella announced that Sam Altman, the former head of OpenAI, will join the company to lead a new AI research division. US markets will be closed on Thursday for Thanksgiving and will have shortened trading hours on Friday. Historically, November has been a strong month for the S&P 500, despite occasional volatility around the Thanksgiving holiday. Market optimism persists towards year-end, buoyed by recent US inflation data which suggests a possible pause in the Federal Reserve's interest rate hikes.
The Nasdaq continues to hover around the 16,000 mark for the fourth consecutive time, waiting for direction. Further performance and breakout require positive data today.

Crypto

Bitcoin Surges Past $37,000 Following Javier Milei's Election

Bitcoin surged past $37,000 early Monday following the election of Javier Milei as Argentina's president, a candidate known for his pro-Bitcoin stance. The overall crypto market saw a nearly 2% increase in the last 24 hours. Milei, identifying as an anarcho-capitalist, has praised Bitcoin as a return to private sector-managed money. However, he has not suggested adopting Bitcoin as a legal tender in Argentina. In an interview with the Argentine newspaper Clarín last year, Milei criticized central banks as deceptive and considered Bitcoin a viable alternative to traditional monetary systems, highlighting its potential in combating inflationary tax imposed by politicians.

As Bitcoin navigates a period of uncertainty, awaiting clearer market cues, the current bullish trend appears strong, suggesting the potential for both short and long-term continuation.

 

[Zforex]

US INDICES:

Stock Futures Inch Up as Bond Yields Hit Two-Month Low

Stock futures rose slightly on Wednesday as bond yields fell to a two-month low. S&P 500 futures rose 0.2%, while Nasdaq 100 futures gained 0.4%. This rise followed the latest Federal Reserve meeting minutes, which indicated continued tight monetary policy with no plans for rate cuts imminent. Nvidia, a major chip manufacturer, announced its results for the third quarter after the close of trading on Tuesday, beating profit and sales expectations. However, the company cautioned that export limitations to China might affect its fiscal fourth-quarter performance. The New York Stock Exchange will be closed for Thanksgiving on Thursday and will have an early closure on Friday.

The Nasdaq will be tested today after Nvidia results while FMOC even traders seem cautious and with tomorrow's closed day profit is taking more accurate which may mean some selloff. While today's data id they come supportive Nadaq may make some gains, but it will be limited.

Crypto

Bitcoin Resilient Following Altcoin Decline, Analysts Bullish on Willy Woo's On-Chain Pattern

Bitcoin (BTC), the leading cryptocurrency, experienced a slight increase on Tuesday, contrasting with the decline in major altcoins like Solana (SOL) and Ethereum. Year-to-date, BTC has impressively surged by 125%, maintaining a vital support level of around $37,000. Crypto experts are increasingly convinced that Bitcoin is unlikely to fall below the $30,000 mark again. This optimism is partly based on an analysis by Willy Woo, a well-known Bitcoin analyst. Woo’s on-chain pattern, which tracks Bitcoin price movements over 13 years, suggests that the probability of BTC falling below $30,000 is decreasing. The pattern, which resembles a contour map, shows the distribution of BTC supply at different price levels acquired by holders, revealing tight bands at certain prices that indicate a strong consensus on value.

The crypto community is optimistic about the DOJ-Binance deal and CZ’s resignation, seeing it as a step towards a Bitcoin ETF. The $4.3 billion settlement addresses Anti-Money Laundering violations, but CZ's departure and the deal have led to market adjustments with significant liquidations and asset outflows from Binance.

Bitcoin is at an uncertain period waiting for more direction. The bullish trend appears strong and could continue for the short and long term even with some negative news for the market.

 

[Zforex]

View attachment 88178


EURUSD Faces Resistance at 1.0950, Potential Breakout Towards Key Level at 1.1000

EURUSD is coming back from the 1.0950 resistance level, if a breakout happens the price may go towards the significant round number of 1.1000.

Resistance 3	Resistance 2	Resistance 1	Support 1	Support 2	Support 3
1.1050	1.1000	1.0950	1.0850	1.0800	1.0750

View attachment 88179


GBP/USD Shows Positivity, Surpasses 100MA Resistance

The GBP/USD is positive today and after going beyond the 100MA resistance level now advancing towards 1.2600, a notable confluence point.

Resistance 3​	Resistance 2​	Resistance 1​	Support 1	Support 2	Support 3
1.2800​	1.2700​	1.2600​	1.2400	1.2300	1.2200

View attachment 88180

USDJPY Gains Following Dollar Weakness and Positive Fundamentals

The USDJPY is coming back again benefiting from dollar weakness and improving fundamentals, but the pair will be challenged by the median line of the bullish long trend is playing as support.

Resistance 3	Resistance 2	Resistance 1	Support 1	Support 2	Support 3
153.50	152.00	150.00	148.00	146.50	144.80

View attachment 88181


Gold Marks its Highest Resistance Level of November

The bullish momentum of gold faced a resistance level at 2003, which is the highest level since the end of November. If a breakout occurs, then the next targets will be 2020 and 2037, while any recovery will find support at the 1979 level.

Resistance 3	Resistance 2	Resistance 1	Support 1	Support 2	Support 3
2037​	2020​	2003​	1979​	1960​	1940​

 

[Zforex]

Crypto

Bitcoin Rebounds to $37300 with Binance Settlement Optimism

Bitcoin has shown remarkable resilience in its price movements, bouncing back from a recent low to a daily high of 37300. This rebound is due in part to traders' reaction to Binance’s legal settlement with the US Department of Justice, which is fueling optimism for a US-based Bitcoin ETF. The options market is reflecting this bullish sentiment, with increased trading activity in call options, particularly for expiry dates in March 2024. Analysts observe positive call-put skews, suggesting market confidence despite potential regulatory upheavals. This optimism is rooted in expectations of a regulatory cleanup in the cryptocurrency sector, which is seen as a stepping stone towards the approval of a cryptocurrency ETF in the U.S. This bullish outlook prevails despite the unexpected exit of Binance’s CEO, Changpeng Zhao, in a landmark legal settlement.

Ethereum Maintains Optimism Despite Market Volatility; Fear and Greed Index at 56

Despite the fallout from the Binance news, which along with other major cryptocurrencies caused a temporary price dip, Ethereum's market sentiment remains optimistic. The Ethereum Fear and Greed Index indicates the 'greed' area with a value of 56. Since the beginning of the year, Ethereum has risen by 66% and has shown a strong performance despite the recent market volatility. This strong increase, alongside its current positioning near the support level, keeps investors and traders vigilant for potential shifts in its trajectory. Bitcoin is at an uncertain period waiting for more direction. The bullish trend appears strong and could continue for the short and long term even with some negative news for the market.

Ethereum price action shows a period of uncertainty near the resistance of 2150, waiting for direction perhaps towards the 2400 resistance level or coming back towards the 1900.

 

[Zforex]

EUR/USD Uncertain, Eyes 1.1000 and 1.1045 Targets

The EUR/USD pair is facing uncertainty today, with its direction dependent on upcoming economic data and events. The next targets for the pair are 1.1000, followed by 1.1045.

Resistance 3	Resistance 2	Resistance 1	Support 1	Support 2	Support 3
1.1100	1.1050	1.1000	1.0950	1.0900	1.0850

GBP/USD Continues Bullish Momentum, Eyes 1.2700 Target

The GBP/USD pair is in the green today, continuing its bullish trend and movement. The next target at 1.2700 is close, and a breakout could take the price toward 1.2800. However, this is unlikely to happen until fundamentals confirm further weakness in the dollar.

Resistance 3​	Resistance 2​	Resistance 1​	Support 1	Support 2	Support 3
1.2900​	1.2800​	1.2700​	1.2580	1.2400	1.2300

USD/JPY Hovers at Median Support, Awaits Breakout

The USD/JPY pair is currently at median support, awaiting a potential breakout. The next targets are set at 146.50 and 146.00.

Resistance 3	Resistance 2	Resistance 1	Support 1	Support 2	Support 3
153.50	152.00	150.00	148.00	146.50	144.80

Gold's Modestly Positive Performance Aligns with Dollar and Treasury Yields

Gold is showing a modestly positive performance today, in line with the muted performance of the dollar and treasury yields. The bullish trend remains strong and healthy, with fundamentals suggesting more gains, especially if this week's data and events exert pressure on the dollar sentiment. The next target for gold is set at the 2037 level.

Resistance 3	Resistance 2	Resistance 1	Support 1	Support 2	Support 3
2052​	2037​	2020​	2006​	1979​	1960​

Oil Recovers Following Improved Sentiment Ahead of OPEC+ Meeting

Oil has recovered today, supported by an improvement in market sentiment as the OPEC+ meeting approaches. However, establishing a clear direction remains challenging due to the current uncertain and complex environment for oil. The next resistance level is expected to be at 78, with support around 72.

Resistance 3	Resistance 2	Resistance 1	Support 1	Support 2	Support 3
82.20​	80​	78​	74​	72​	68​